Iran's Hormuz Takeover Spikes Oil Risk, Boosts Gold Demand
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-Asia ─────── Iran seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil shipments and elevating energy market risks. US Navy intercepts and disables Iranian cargo ship Touska, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation that could spike oil prices. Iran declares war more probable than further negotiations, increasing geopolitical risk premiums in financial markets. British forces elevate alert levels in the Persian Gulf due to Iran's transit restrictions, threatening oil supply stability. Major banks face allegations of laundering money for Iran, heightening sanctions enforcement and currency volatility. Iran asserts readiness for unpredictable military actions, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. ─────── 🎬 Live trade today 9am NY: https://t.co/UFRUqEvyUH
China's 11 M Bpd Crude Imports Dominated by Gulf
11 million barrels a day and most of it from the Gulf… Source: Visual Capitalist http://visualcapitalist.com/chinas-crude-oil-imports-by-country/
Commodity Forecasts Falter: Dated Brent Predictions Missed
Would love to hear from all the folks who just days ago told us that Dated Brent can only go up and the gap to futures will inexorably widen. But of course today all you hear is crickets. We all...
Hormuz Disruption Could Push Oil Above $130, Trigger Demand Collapse
MS: Tail Risks Would Drive Oil Into Demand Destruction Territory A prolonged disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would require oil prices to rise into demand destruction territory, historically above of $130 Distribution of Inflation-Adjusted Oil Prices https://t.co/Hw1dB85crz
Burger Prices Surge, Imports Rise, Exports Fall.
"Burgers approach luxury territory as beef prices remain high" https://t.co/kxMtibg3NB "Imports are rising to fill the gap, while exports are falling as domestic supply tightens." https://t.co/U23joP278Z
Energy Prices Set to Floor as Cheap Oil Ends
An important reminder for the weekend: The oil-to-gold ratio remains near historically low levels, and the era of cheap energy is likely coming to an end. It’s hard to imagine countries not becoming far more aggressive in building strategic reserves after the...
JD.com Gold Prices Jump to 1,134 RMB/Gram
Physical gold bars on JD.com the Chinese retailer have surged this weekend, from 1,092 RMB to 1,134RMB/g, equivalent to $4,980 to $5,171 per ounce.
TLT Outperforms USO Tenfold Amid Oil Price Shifts
Is TLT vs. USO a 10x? From the 2018 low to 2020 high, TLT advanced about 10x vs. USO (total return). From the 2008 low to this year's nadir so far, TLT/USO is up about 10x (was up roughly 130x to...
Oil Experts Wrong: Dated Brent Drops $20 Overnight
Most oil "experts" are industry shills. They told us that Dated Brent can't fall because the physical shortage is too great. Well, Dated Brent fell $20 in one day on Friday. The stuff from these guys is just scare-mongering. Same...
India's IOC Logs Second‑largest Weekly Russian Crude Imports
🇮🇳 India’s IOC just recorded the second-highest weekly volume of Russian crude imports ever — only behind the record set in third week of June 2023 https://t.co/slsuYNxtUf
Malaysia's Fuel Crisis: Import Reliance Contradicts Official Optimism
The Prime Minister of Malaysia says 85% of Malaysians aren’t affected by the fuel crisis. The MOF says Malaysia consumes 700,000 barrels a day and produces 350,000. It imports the rest — and nearly 40% of those imports travel through...
China Stockpiles Cheap Russian Oil; India Overpays
China's Q1 Russian crude imports hit a record high — way above past levels. Thanks to Indian refiners yielding to Trump’s pressure and cutting back, Beijing was stockpiling that oil on the cheap. Is this important? Yes, China is energy-secured. India...
Brent Drops $4.80, Sliding Below $91 This Week
Brent futures price fell $4.82 from $95.20 to $90.38 week ending April 17 This too shall pass #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/JxUzi7LcJW
WTI Crude Plummets 13% as Trump Misstates Hormuz
WTI futures price fell $12.72 (13%) from $96.57 to $83.85 week ending April 17 Trump's Thursday lie about Hormuz being open will backfire on Monday #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/m98itzORTg
Oil Near $200, Likely Stays Until Crash
Just to be safe you assume oil prices can never get to $200 @awealthofcs Just to be safe, I'm going to assume you are an energy blind idiot Prices already are at or near $200 on the cash market. And there's...
One‑Third of WA Miners Halt Exploration Over Fuel Costs
One-third of WA miners freeze exploration programs as high fuel prices bite, according to AMEC survey https://t.co/PixWo2BS6s
Delta Faces $2.5B Jet Fuel Bill Amid Price Surge
Due to fuel prices DOUBLING in the past month, Delta Airlines will spend an extra $2.5 BILLION on jet fuel this quarter. AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/KgseZIFAPm
Strait Disruption Could Drop 2026 Oil Demand Below IEA Forecast
The @IEA projects that the world would use ~104 million barrels per day in 2026. With the disruption in the disruption in the Strait we are already predicted to go down to an average of 100mbpd for 2026-- maybe lower.🧵
US Oil Exec Would Slash Capex Amid Hormuz Price Gap
If I was a US oil exec witnessing how Hormuz’s closure for 7 weeks (& counting) has left US oil prices far below global prices while E&P stocks (XOP) have underperformed SPX since March 2, I’d cut 2026 capex, lay...
Wholesale Diesel $2 Cheaper—Truck Stops Won’t Pass Savings
The spread of retail to wholesale fuel is almost $2.00 a gallon. This is the second-highest spread we have ever measured. What this means: Large carriers buy their fuel on wholesale rack arrangements and pay a floating index price (OPIS)....
Elasticity Fuels Wild Commodity Bull Market
A top bull market in commodities is elasticity. The front US natural gas future made an up about 100% to down 30% round turn in 1Q. Crude oil may be next. https://t.co/f9xXlI5GLv
Oil Prices Likely Stay Above $80 Amid Iran Conflict
$USOIL - Closed the week below the 10 week MA confirming that it made an intermediate term top in early March. Crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated(above $80) as long as the conflict with Iran isn't solved. https://t.co/BicUp8rpN4
Winter Oil's -5% Slide Is a Significant Move
Heard some folks assert that later-dated oil wasn't down as much as the prompt. Well, of course.. you'll almost NEVER see 6-month and beyond contracts change as much as the front month. In reality, -5% on winter oil is a large move....
Energy Index Surges 45% YTD, Still Trails Gold
Has the Gold Stud vs. Energy Dud Pattern Changed? The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex (BCOMENSP) has been robust year to date, gaining about 45%, getting it to breakeven from 2005. Will the Iran war sustain higher prices, or follow the pattern...
Brent Dips Below $100 as Hormuz Conflict Wanes
Dated Brent (white) yesterday fell below $100 for the first time in over a month. There's conflicting headlines on the Strait of Hormuz, but the direction of travel is clear: this war is basically over. Both sides - for different...
Futures Shift Risk; Physical Oil Now Scarce
Futures markets transfer price risk & price expectations months to years ahead Physical barrels price scarcity now Paper supply is unlimited. Physical supply isn’t. Any questions? https://t.co/STPJkffl5A #Oil #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #Commodities #Trading
Iran Shuts Hormuz Strait, Threatening Global Oil Flow
‼️ HAPPENING NOW: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US refuses to end blockade. Global oil supply route could be at risk again https://t.co/yrGUN6Izcw
Hormuz Oil Flows Too Low to Impact Markets
Bottom line on Hormuz tanker traffic The Signal: Not enough oil is moving to make a difference Whether the few making transit are sanctioned or not is noise
Physical vs Financial Oil: Why Prices Diverge Globally
WEEKEND READ: What is the price of oil — the real one? My attempt to shed light into the PHYSICAL and FINANCIAL oil markets, and why you can pick up a barrel of crude for $78 in Kansas or $286 in...
Six Weeks Redefined the Global Energy Landscape
The Six Weeks That Changed the Global Energy Economy #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/X0yljDlDR2 https://t.co/jb6qgak7hJ
Latin America's New Oil Supply Offers Marginal, Uneven Boost
Latin America's new supply matters at the margin but it's hardly a "boom for energy security" It arrives slowly, unevenly & with plenty of political uncertainty It also has substantial oil quality mismatches for refineries https://t.co/JTh0Pvf1pH @SantiagoAuFund
Backwardation Stalls Shale Drilling Despite Price Spike
Shale isn’t chasing the spike because the curve says it won’t last, writes @Ole_S_Hansen Backwardation limits hedging, so producers can’t lock in returns No price certainty, no rush to drill. #OilMarkets #Shale #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Oil Markets Misread Headlines; Actual Flow Constrained
Markets trade headlines. Reality trades barrels, notes @AlaliQasem “Open” doesn’t mean flowing—logistics, damage, and depleted inventories are the reality #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics https://t.co/ApFoZyc4l8
Mexican Tomato Prices Jump 23% After Trade Ban
"Trump ended free trade for Mexican tomatoes. Prices are up 23 percent in the last year." https://t.co/rXKH70uU4w https://t.co/5h1CotBsLs
Urea Prices Jump 87% as Middle East Supplies Halt
Fertilizer flows from the Middle East remain blocked. Urea fertilizer prices have SURGED 87% YTD to $720 per ton, the highest level in nearly 3 years. FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/8GGpcsbTMb
Crude Prices Shift; Everything Else Stays Unchanged
Nothing fundamentally changed today… … except the price of crude, which is a pretty important thing.
Traders Wager $760M on Oil Dip Before Hormuz Reopening
"...around 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was open" Traders place $760 million bet on falling oil ahead of Hormuz announcement https://t.co/CGzgaSsWa9
Iran Conflict Destabilizes Eastern Mediterranean Gas Sector
The Iran war has disrupted Eastern Mediterranean gas production, exports, and development, threatened regional energy infrastructure, and increased political and investment uncertainty. /1
War on Iran Pushes US Gas Prices Above $4 per Gallon
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, prices at the pump have JUMPED by $1.15. The national US average just hit $4.13/gallon. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = CREATING AMERICAN PAIN AT THE PUMP. https://t.co/2D7sRK3hnJ
Oil Dips, but Hormuz Ceasefire Keeps Markets Wary
Oil prices are falling, but don't celebrate at the pump just yet. The Strait of Hormuz is "open" — for now. We're 5 days into a 10-day ceasefire. A lot can still change. https://t.co/RUshSF8tJh
Oil Prices Plunge as Iran Claims Hormuz Open
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices cratered and term structure flattened on Friday following Iran’s declaration that Hormuz is “open” despite the fact that little traffic has actually managed to cross the Strait today. Summary below, link in...
Gulf Oil Damage Means Two-Year Recovery Even if Strait Reopens
My view on @cgtnamerica on the long-term impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure: "The fallout from the Gulf situation will cast its shadow for a while. 80 petroleum & refining facilities have been damaged. Even if the Strait opens tomorrow,...
Hormuz Closure Could Cut Global Energy, Drop GDP 10%
With Iran tensions flaring, a Strait of Hormuz shutdown could slash 10% of global energy. That means a straight 10% GDP collapse, no ifs or buts.
Iran War’s End Won’t End Supply Chain Risks
Is the Iran War Almost Over? Why That Doesn't End the Supply Risks. #oatt #oott https://t.co/SUroio6mpX
Cattle Prices Slip $
About a 9 buck break in cattle from the highs in short order is probably about enough. Things are not as much one sided as they were from a few days ago. Equilibrium restored.
Hormuz Optimism Pushes Dated Brent Below $100
Hormuz optimism not just a "paper" market phenomenon. Backwardation coming off across the full Brent curve, and Dated Brent just fell back below $100/bbl for the first time since March 11th. https://t.co/KHm34R8Ort
Oil Markets Converge as Brent Slides Below $100
It turns out that oil financial and physical markets do converge -- just not in the way that many were expecting. Dated Brent is now below $100 a barrel (from $145 last week), and physical differentials in the key pricing window...
Analyzing US Refineries and Venezuela's Post‑Maduro Oil Rebound
There's a timeline in which the Iran War never happened, the Strait of Hormuz was never closed, and I spent the past two months doing really interesting niche data work on US refineries, light-heavy crude balances, and tracking the post-Maduro...
Oil Prices Plunge as Iran Confirms Hormuz Open
The physical oil market, like the futures, has had a big reaction to Iran saying the Strait of Hormuz is open. WTI Midland crude traded CIF at dated Brent plus $10.40, down a massive $6.80 from Thursday's offer. Lower offers too in...
Wholesale Diesel Plunges; Retail Lags—Buy Cost‑plus
Diesel wholesale rack prices have dropped $.70/gallon in the past week and could drop another $.50 -.70 gallon over the weekend. Meanwhile, retail diesel has only dropped $.15/gallon since last week and if past trends hold the truckstops will be...