Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
WTI Peaks and Recessions: $120 (2026), $147 (2008), $130 (2022) - WTI crude oil was near unchanged for the week ending March 20 despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed, suggesting a potential topping process reminiscent of 2008. Roughly $120 a barrel in 2026 could join enduring highs of $147 in the run-up to the Great Recession and $130 in 2022. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/KCEuAURXRb {BI COMD} #crudeoil #energy #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence
An off ramp? A TACO? Another bait and switch? Brent cratered ~$16/bbl on Trump’s latest post talking about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. https://t.co/6dfE8zEiRE
Crude vs. 2026 Commodity Pump-Then-Dump Pattern - Front-month US natural gas futures surged roughly 100% to the January peak, then reversed to about a 15% decline by March 20. Will WTI crude oil follow? Silver and copper have also shifted...
This one is intuitive and goes without saying. But let’s say it anyway; “When oil spikes, food prices tend to follow” Do you know why?
Both the COVID-19 oil shock and the current Middle East oil shock (has) caused big moves in oil prices (Volatility), but for opposite reasons though. In 2020, demand absolutely collapsed because nobody was using or wanted as much oil as...
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 120 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major gas futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 17....
1-year % change: silver +105% gold +50.3% oil +44% S&P 500 $SPX +14.9% bonds $AGG -0.2% long bonds $TLT -5.9%
OK, let’s get this out in the open so we all know where we stand. I’m a long-term #copper bull. But I’m a short-term copper bear. And this is why. I was both a long-term and short-term copper bull in 2008 –...
Compare and contrast US Natural Gas prices to European TTF Natural Gas prices. US prices have barely moved. What was that about there only being one international price for gas 👀 This is what madness looks like with respect to energy policy...
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market 🇦🇪 ⚠️ Adnoc has “made temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gas” They’re working with customers to fulfill commitments “wherever possible” https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER
I don’t think we have understood yet how serious this crisis is. IEA’s Fatih Birol: ~5 mb/d lost in each of the 1970s oil shocks; ~75 bcm gas after Russia’s 2022 invasion. Now: ~11 mb/d oil and ~140 bcm gas disrupted. https://t.co/6G8leH3lHR https://t.co/ESkY9LyQjx
"Over the past week, spot prices at the Waha gas trading hub in the Permian Basin fell as low as -$9.75 per million British thermal units, with expectations that it could hit -$10." https://t.co/camxY0zKrz
Lots of emphasis on rising fertilizer prices in the US but food is a small part of budgets in the developed world. It's around 40% of the CPI basket in Bangladesh, Thailand, Ghana and Nigeria. That's 500 MILLION people. https://t.co/g5gtlNlsWN...
The LNG shock is about to get real The last Gulf cargoes loaded before the war are now arriving After that, Europe & Asia hit the wall This is a major structural shock that may last years https://t.co/Dw60mbEoxn #LNG #Hormuz #Qatar #Pakistan #Bangladesh #Taiwan #EnergyCrisis...
If held flat at current shut-in levels of around 9 MMbpd, Gulf crude oil production would be down by ~6.5 million on the month in March. Balance math gets much uglier when these run for a full month or more—and things...
Thailand is restarting retired coal units because LNG got too expensive In a real crisis, transition rhetoric gives way to fuel reality. https://t.co/YD0xNKNZzI #Thailand #Coal #LNG #EnergyCrisis #PowerMarkets #Electricity #EnergySecurity #Climate
Seeing a narrative going around that gold is selling off because everyone is getting liquidated. Please. If that were the case, people would be selling stocks first. Gold is leading the downside. To me, this still looks like a market pricing in an extremely...
GC and SI have been on extended runs to the downside, and thus can still do some work down here. But, any further down likely then have a rally back up above this Feb swing low. https://t.co/r7CeCy4jUU
People buy Gold when they fear bad events. They sell Gold when those events actually happen. Gold ripping was the warning. Now we’re seeing what the market was trying to tell us.
Finacial Times. LNG from the Middle East expected to stop within 10 days. More supply and maritime problems ahead.
You can hold that garbage can full of gasoline and wait for higher prices, but risk Trump TACOing and prices dumping. Or you can simply sell the garbage can of gasoline into spot and buy the same garbage can back for...
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. https://t.co/qqyd5NrZQ8
GOLDMAN: “We upgrade our price forecast for two reasons. First, we now assume that Hormuz flows remain at only 5% of normal levels for a longer 6-week period before a gradual 1-month recovery. Second, a recognition of the risks from...
🌽Money managers as of March 17 held their most bullish position in CBOT corn fut & opt since late Feb. 2025, as more shorts were forced out of the market. That marked funds' 9th consecutive week as net corn buyers, their...
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
By what? Giving waver to Putin to sell his oil freely at prices we have not see since 2022? 😉
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Forget TSA lines, the real problem with air travel in the coming weeks is fuel. Some cargoes are already diverting toward the U.S. on a Jones Act waiver, so domestic travel might hold. Europe? Different story. About 1.77M barrels/day of jet fuel...
Everything this guy says is fake or misleading. The chart is one of taxes, not RE cost https://t.co/LxtCmfzTkR RE correlates with lower, not higher, electricity prices. Of the 14 states meeting 50-124% of demand with WWS, 12 are 2-5...
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
As a first for me, I'm recommending @paulkrugman as a weekend read/listen. @robin_j_brooks makes it possible with a discussion on the Hormuz shock. https://t.co/aQ64hxAHxb
The Oil Shell Game: Peeling Away the Bluster of the Latest Oil Announcements. Trade. https://t.co/FyQ7lGbyR5
Iran struck Qatar's gas infrastructure. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. This isn't just oil at risk. It's the entire Gulf energy supply chain. $XLE is at all-time highs for a reason. https://t.co/7TjuVfAelG
"U.S. retail gasoline prices respond to Brent and WTI before January 2010 and then only to Brent afterwards." (Note: this study is from 2019)
Of course you can paint all kinds of horror scenarios for oil prices. But they require two things: (i) a collapse in oil export volumes out of the Gulf from current levels near 10 mmb/d; (ii) a price elasticity of...
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
⚠️ Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is NOT just geopolitical noise. It’s the single biggest macro risk in the market right now. ~20% of global oil flows through that choke point. If it closes: • Oil spikes • Inflation rebounds • Risk...
The Devil's Metal: Silver and Risks of Contagion - Silver's 1Q pump-then-dump may prove contagious. The so-called "devil's metal" has lived up to its reputation, reversing a 63% year-to-date gain on Jan. 28 to a 5% decline on March 20....
"World faces gas supply cliff edge as Gulf’s final LNG shipments approach ports" https://t.co/OjcnxXcs8a "China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed." https://t.co/ikbgxbUPhV
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Wafer prices fall on weak demand #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/Lzcqrequzf
Threats are flying between the US and Iran, but what matters for oil prices isn't words but deeds. Those deeds are that big oil tankers with capacity of 2 million barrels keep docking at Kharg Island to fill up. This...
Gas only sets Spain's electricity price 15% of the time. When gas costs spike it barely registers on the electricity bill. In countries like Italy and the UK gas sets the price 90% of the time. The difference is enormous. I...
As fully expected when I said March 3, that the selling had just begun and higher oil would spike global yields. NOW, the market has finally changed its outlook and now expects a lot more volatility. I even gave my 🎯🔥⏳ https://t.co/FoGQa6x3Hh
“Just because oil prices have spiked higher on geopolitical risk does not mean that US oil companies will drill baby drill"
"Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge" https://t.co/lgfrgMYRFg "almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur—which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer—comes from countries in the Middle East" And US tariffs are making things worse:
The UK should consider temporarily capping the profits of energy companies to protect consumers as prices spike in the wake of the Iran conflict, a top government adviser says https://t.co/fNlKVlPQy2 https://t.co/Smfsfn7hi3
400 million barrels. Largest emergency stockpile release in history. $BRN still at $112. The market is telling you exactly what it's pricing: this won't be enough. Think. https://t.co/t5SmTDXuzM
The last LNG tankers from the Gulf arrive in the next 10 days. After that, many countries face a sharp drop in supply. Qatar's Ras Laffan — 20% of global LNG — could be offline for 3-5 years. Fossil fuel...
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
Three weeks into the Middle East war, this is where we are from an energy point of view - a nightmare scenario. A weekend read from @Reuters https://t.co/xnlY5DLrvT
