Exiting April/June Live Cattle Spread
Think there may be more in it but stepping out of the April/June trade Live cattle that was posted on here a week or so ago. Looking at 4.30 on the spread to step aside.
Traders Bet $430M on Oil Drop Pre‑Trump Ceasefire
Traders placed bets worth $430 million on a drop in crude prices just 15 minutes before President Trump said he would extend a ceasefire with Iran, which sent the market lower @a_coops1 https://t.co/v167motouv
Missing Price Discovery Signals Looming Energy Market Crisis
“The lack of price discovery that we are seeing is so worrying to me, because in reality we are storing up a bigger problem for the future,” said Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects. https://t.co/faWrJzysrl
Gold Surges when Monetary Regimes Shift, Not Just Inflation
Gold doesn't shine every year. It shines during monetary regime changes. 1971: Bretton Woods collapses → gold 10x'd by 1980. Post-2008 QE era → gold 6x'd by 2011. The driver wasn't just inflation. It was confidence in the system itself. $GLD $GDX https://t.co/LTB2CfST8r
Iran War Sparks Massive Commodity Price Surge, Markets Stable
Since the start of the Iran war... Jet Fuel: +60% Sulfur: +53% Urea: +49% Heating Oil: +46% Diesel: +46% Brent Crude Oil: +36% Fertilizer: +35% Gasoline: +35% WTI Crude Oil: +35% European Natural Gas: +33% Palm Oil: +14% Coal: +12% Iron Ore: +8% Rice: +6% S&P 500: +3% $VIX: -4%
Copper Eyes $6.20 Breakout After Deceptive Moves
Copper had fake breakout and reversal then fake breakdown and bullish reversal last month. Will it finally breakout of rectangle at $6.20? https://t.co/b6UjOWUib4
US Pushes Mineral Price Floor, Threatens Tariffs on China
US wants club of countries to trade minerals at set minimum prices to protect their investments in mining/processing, and could hit outside producers — eg China — with steep tariffs or other barriers to prevent them driving down prices. by @Aime_Williams...
Oil Rises While Volatility Soars, Market Stays Skeptical
Crude oil futures #CL=F and volatility #OVX have been diverging the past 48 hours as Oil recovered from $80 to $90. OVX has kept climbing to 76 (+10%). Market isn't buying the calm.
China, Russia Offer Discounted Gas, Bypass USD, Challenge Qatar
China and Russia building new natural gas pipelines to replace Nordstream. Asian countries being courted to buy natural gas at 40% discount to market rates. Won’t be priced in USD. Permanent shift from Qatar which will take years and billions...
Ceasefire's TACO Shock Highlights Hormuz's Market Impact
A real ceasefire would be a true TACO moment, writes @TheMichaelEvery A Suez-scale shock. Energy might dip short term, but who controls Hormuz matters more. Markets aren’t priced for either outcome. #Oil #Geopolitics #Hormuz
Oil Has 22% Chance to Hit $130 by June
JUST IN: Oil has a 22% probability of reaching $130 by the end of June.
Hormuz Closure Triggers Battery Material Shortage
The Hormuz Closure Is Driving a Shortage of Battery Ingredients #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/qbM9aqdKdm https://t.co/1qVldYbwTl
Pacific Nations Struggle as Global Fuel Crisis Hits Families
JUST IN: Pacific nations are battling a global fuel crisis, with governments scrambling for energy and families hit by restrictions and rising costs for food and healthcare.
Halliburton Sees Early US Oil Recovery, Just Beginning
JUST IN: Halliburton spots initial recovery in the US oil sector, declaring it's just beginning.
Predicting $4675 Gold with Double Fibonacci Confluence
How we arrived at $4675/oz 24 hrs before it happened using double #fibonacci confluence https://t.co/O8D2i7yAmY #xauusd $GLD #forex https://t.co/gMQ4aJSs6y
War's Energy Surge Signals Higher Prices Ahead
No matter how long you expect the war to last, the chart below doesn’t look like the end of a move. If anything, the setup still appears quite explosive. This marks the beginning of a new regime of structurally higher energy prices,...
China's Oil Wells at Risk Without Immediate Iranian Flow
Iran is without revenues, but way more important is that the oilwells that China relies on might be permanently damaged if oilflows does not start again within a short time
China’s Record Oil Stockpiles Signal Hidden Market Insight
China's oil inventories are at record high.. What do the Chinese know that we don't? Daily Energy Report Link: https://t.co/yJIG1S9GHe
Oil Surge Makes 2026 Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely
WTI back at $88, with the Strait closed again, means the Fed's path just got harder. Energy feeds into CPI with a lag, so every week oil stays elevated, and every dollar above $80 is another month of sticky inflation prints....
Brent Surpasses $100 as VP Vance Cancels Islamabad Trip
Brent oil is back above $100 after US Vice President JD Vance called off his Islamabad trip. This follows Iran’s refusal to join talks there to negotiate an end to the War or, at the minimum, extend the ceasefire, which is...
Brent Crude Surges Past $100 Mark Again
*VANCE CALLED OFF TRIP TO PAKISTAN: AP And just like that Brent breaks back above the magic $100 treshold https://t.co/6zbrIXzw1c
DHL Sees European Jet Fuel Through June, Asia Uncertain
DHL expects jet fuel supplies into June for Europe, but has doubts over Asia https://t.co/kxr0837JmW
Broken Support May Flip to Strong Resistance
Broken support becomes resistance? $CL_F $USO After buyers defended the AVWAP from the beginning of the war, that anchor failed abruptly with the gap lower last Thursday. Now the prior support is being tested and it has the potential to...
Copper at $6 Signals Economy’s Health Boost
Here comes "The Doctor," touching $6 again. They call it Doctor Copper because the metal's action diagnoses a sick or recovering economy. A nice 55.1 on ISM Manufacturing Production indicates the industrial sector has been taking its Vitamin (C)opper. https://t.co/BGqFYLIPUI
Energy Stocks Poised for 10x Gains, Ignored
I sat down with @JosefSchachter, one of Canada's most respected energy analysts with 45+ years in the market. Crypto can be interesting, but energy stocks can easily do a 10-20x themselves. He told me energy stocks are about to 10x, and most...
China and US Fight Tightening Copper Market
A global tug of war between the SHFE (China) and the Comex (USA) for copper
Oil Prices Set to Surge After Gulf Shipments End
My take w/ @WallStBullion on why OIL is about to SPIKE: "By the end of April, all pre-war Gulf oil shipments will be delivered. Then, oil prices will spike again. Soon, the paper market will be mugged by reality & converge.” STAY LONG...
Markets Assume Peace, yet Signals Warn of Uncertainty
Three signals flashed green last week. One flashed yellow. S&P ripped +4.5%. Gold above $4,800. Oil collapsed below $85. The market just priced in peace. What if it's wrong? https://t.co/PPkEJEJRRN
WTI May Futures Expire; Prompt Spread Squeezed
WTI May futures contract expiring today. Prompt time spread getting squeezed this morning into expiry. https://t.co/ngZp1l2e18
Lithium Shortage Threatens 100% Renewable Energy Goal
Does the world have enough lithium to power all the electric vehicles and stationary batteries needed to transition the world to 100% clean, renewable energy and storage for everything? More info https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-lithium.pdf https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/WWSStillNMN/StillNMN.html Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKBTnj1nTWo
Energy Shock From Trump and Hormuz Closure Spurs Fertilizer Surge
Fertilizer Prices Skyrocket Thanks To Trump, Strait of Hormuz Closure Abishur "Mr Geopolitics" Prakash explains why the energy crisis has quickly created a global food crisis. #cdnpoli #iranwar https://youtu.be/MG9J7FJIwzg
US Must Ban Crude Exports by July Amid Storage Crisis
U.S. will have to ban crude & product exports before July, writes @HFI_Research Storage will be at operational limits by then—regardless of Hormuz Demand destruction of 11–13 mb/d is coming. The market won’t rebalance at $95. https://t.co/7pITLtH3tR #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #DemandDestruction #CrudeOil #Geopolitics
Gold Bull Run Set for $6‑7K Amid US Policy Fear
My take with @WallStBullion on why the GOLD BULL is here to stay: "Gold will peak out at $6,000-$7,000/oz. People are worried erratic US policy. They don't want to get trapped in the dollar system for fear of sanctions. So they...
Early Demand‑destruction Estimates Underestimate Global Barrel Shifts
I still personally struggle with these early demand destruction estimates. In many cases, a demanded barrel couldn’t be had at any price given acute initial shortages—presumably those who would still consume at higher prices will bid for other seaborne barrels, spreading...
Italy's Soaring Power Costs Expose Stubborn Gas Dependence
Italy rising power costs reveal gas reliance that’s hard to diversify https://t.co/gkD72hDglF via @Al_Brambilla https://t.co/lgz9odh4et
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Could Drive Prices Toward $40
Lower Prices May Be Top Cure for US+Canada Surplus The recent WTI crude oil surge may add fuel to an incomplete low-price-cure cycle toward $40 a barrel. My graphic highlights a key reason why: the growing surplus in US and Canadian...
Corn Near $5 Ceiling; Gas Pump‑Dump May Pull to $4
Technical Outlook - Corn vs. $5 Ceiling and Pump-Then-Dump Pattern From Natural Gas Corn's low in this down cycle might not yet be in. December corn revisited threshold resistance near $5 a bushel in 1Q, alongside crude oil's surge to about...
December Corn Likely Slides Toward $4.30
December Corn May Lean Toward $4.30 vs. Above $5 New-crop December (Dec26) corn, at about $4.80 a bushel on April 20, may have a greater propensity to extend its life-of-contract low near $4.39 than to stay above the high of around...
War Cuts 1bn Barrels, Threatening Recession if Hormuz Stays Closed
Oil market has experienced a loss of 1 billion barrels due to war, says Trafigura’s Rahim. Oil markets are one month away from tank bottoms AND a recession is possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three more months,...
US Redirects Fertilizer Overseas Amid Iran War Price Surge
Uh oh: "US buyers redirect imported fertilizer overseas as Iran war drives up global prices" https://t.co/bQZvdTkA8z https://t.co/4gCpKe44yx
Hormuz Crisis Drives Coal Surge, Lifts Dry Bulk Rates
Dry bulk freight rates poised to rise as Hormuz crisis bolsters coal demand ▶️A substitution effect could occur where power plants burn more coal instead of crude oil products or gas to mitigate rising costs ▶️One industry player expects dry bulk freight...
Canadian Steel Prices 40% Below U.S., Fully Disconnected
"Canadian [steel] pricing has 'completely disconnected' from the U.S., running at a '40% discount to U.S. pricing,'" 👀 https://t.co/RxOI4R1JE5 https://t.co/lMrgt4UWO4
De‑escalation, Not Manipulation, Drives Falling Oil Prices
This shock hasn't worked out the way alarmists made it out to be. De-escalation has meant oil futures (orange) have fallen and have pulled down the physical oil price (white) with them. This isn't manipulation or a sign of a...
Ukraine Drone Strikes Force Russia to Cut April Oil Output
April 21 (Reuters) - Russia was forced to reduce oil output in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries, as well as a halt to crude supplies via the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe, according...
Whale Bets $5.6M on Oil Drop Before Trump Speech
🚨 WHALE BET AGAINST OIL 🚨 A whale just opened a $5.6M OIL SHORT ahead of Trump’s speech today This isn’t random… Does he know something we don’t? https://t.co/1gzLAufWll
Russian Oil to India Near Record Levels Despite Sanctions Waiver
MOSCOW, April 21 (Reuters) - Russian oil sales to India are set to remain near record highs in April and May following a new U.S. sanctions waiver, and refiners have already secured much of their supply needs via non-sanctioned entities...
Equities Price AI; Oil Ignores Real Supply Shock
Equity markets have priced in AI, which might happen. Whereas, oil markets have NOT priced in what has already happened. ~ 1 billion barrels of oil has been lost to date… and oil prices are up only ~50%.
UK to Curb Gas Power with Fixed-Price CfDs
NEW: Details of UK govt plans to "break influence of gas on electricity prices" Carrot: Offer fixed-price "wholesale CfDs" to old renewables, replacing wholesale ££ but not RO top-up Stick: Higher windfall tax of 45–>55% on 1 July for old renewables/nuclear 1/3 https://t.co/zMNwT7DWGm
Russia to Supply China Gas at One‑third Cheaper than Europe
China is getting cheap natural gas from Russia 🇨🇳🤝🇪🇺 The Russian government expects to sell gas to China through 2029 at about a third less than the price paid by Europe (this includes Turkey) https://t.co/LgIAxNwHXq https://t.co/5t7y1oF7zy
Silver Leads Strong March Chinese Imports Across Metals
Chinese Imports & Exports for AU/AG/PA/PL in March. Silver stands out amongst the strong imports. Chart below