Current Oil Supply Loss 99× Iranian Revolution Shock
Now look at the RATE of supply loss @SheDrills The rate of global supply loss today is 99x greater than during the Iranian Revolution oil shock https://t.co/ncx5kgaf83
Permanent 1 Billion‑Barrel Oil Loss Redefines Market
What's happening with oil supply is way outside of any historical precedent, says @ericnuttall Yet analysts, economists & bankers treat it like a price problem that will soon be forgotten 1 billion barrels are gone—permanently. You don’t “snap back” from that. #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis...
Defying Morgan Stanley: Gold Set for $6‑7k Peak
Morgan Stanley just cut its gold price forecast for the rest of 2026 from $5,700/oz to $5,200/oz. I DISAGREE. I stand with my prediction that gold's secular bull run will peak out at $6,000-$7,000/oz. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/alphqydMk9
Uruguay’s $7.50 Gas Highlights Global South’s War Burden
Gasoline in Uruguay is about $7.50 a gallon at 81 UYU pesos per liter. The U.S. and Israeli war on Iran continues to disproportionately impact the global south.
Closing Hormuz Costs Billions, Not Just Pennies
“Too expensive. I’m a very cost-conscious person” Every day Hormuz remains closed the world loses 13 million barrels of oil, current market price ~$1.35 billion.
Oil Shortage Already Priced In, No $200 Brent
It's not obvious physical shortage of oil now should drive prices higher. Markets are forward-looking and this shortage was predictable. So the 60% rise in Brent from before the war prices much of this. Maybe we go a bit higher,...
Clean Energy Buffers EU Electricity Costs During Gas Spikes
The more clean energy a country has, the less it pays when gas prices spike. The chart shows electricity price sensitivity per €1/MWh rise in gas across EU countries in 2025. @CREACleanAir https://t.co/izKNUNPQwJ https://t.co/l6HAQKC1fi
Oil Prices Already Reflect War Shortfalls, Further Rises Unlikely
I covered 3 topics on this morning's live stream: (i) the 60% rise from before the war means oil already prices the physical shortfalls unfolding now, so prices shouldn't rise much further; (ii) global supply chain disruptions; (iii) rising global...
WTI Spreads Surge, 12‑month Up
WTI 12-month spread widened $7.84 (60%) for the week ending April 24 6-month spread widened $6.35 (69%) & price rose $10.55 (13%) from $83.85 to $94.40 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/SWXxGMx8Qy
Hormuz Delay Persists; Stocks Hit Record Highs as Forecasted
Strait of Hormuz likely will not fully reopen for months, Baker Hughes executive says @seekingalpha and stocks are at record highs, just as everyone predicted https://t.co/byIcXkNS7j
Hormuz Crisis Unfolds: Market Calm, Leaders Navigate Shock
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @Amena__Bakr about the latest tracking of the Hormuz crisis, the shockingly sanguine market reaction thus far, and how the political and industry leadership across the region...
Oil Inventories Near Record Lows Despite Potential Hormuz Reopening
The world’s oil buffers are rapidly being depleted, with crude inventories poised to reach the lowest levels on record even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in full by the end of this month: GS’s Daan Struyven & team https://t.co/Z3i0GtxRlv
Mexico-Japan Oil Trade Remains Sporadic, Future Uncertain
🇯🇵🇲🇽 The last oil shipment from Mexico to Japan was in October 2023, and the previous one was in April 2022. Will we see steady shipments going forward?
Silver Near Sell Signal; Break Below 72.59 Triggers Drop
$Silver - It looks like the bounce out of the March low ended at the 0.618 retracement of the March 3-23 downtrend and we're getting close to another sell signal. A close below 72.59 will likely lead to another decline...
Gold Misses Bounce, Faces Potential Drop Below 4644
$Gold - I was expecting the bounce out of the March low to continue towards the 0.618 retracement at 5027. Instead, this week was a down week and price is getting close to another sell signal. A close below 4644...
Iran War Drives up Costs, French Farmers Cut Corn Planting
French farmers cut back on corn sowing as Iran war boosts costs https://t.co/BewOXswwv8 via @nayrazz https://t.co/p0l4KyJUZ3
Singapore’s Fuel Hub Doubles Russian Oil Imports Amid War
Singapore, the world’s biggest ship refueling port, TURNS TO RUSSIA FOR OIL. Oil imports from Russia have DOUBLED since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. RUSSIA = BIG WINNER. https://t.co/oBUnq9FGNS
China’s Commodity Stockpiles, Not Strategy, Cushioned Iran War Impact
1/5 It's true that China was able to withstand the effects of the Iran war better than many other countries because it had stockpiled commodities. But it is a little silly, perhaps even a little orientalist, to say that it did...
Call‑option Surge Lifts Futures, Then Producers Reverse
Why oil futures are lower than spot prices A one-sided rush for call options forced dealers to buy the market, pushing prices up. When that flow faded and producers sold into strength, the same mechanics reversed—pulling prices back down. #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/AoJ7lKdIlf
Iran’s Oil Revenue Persists After Export Shutdowns
Important nuance. Most observers are focused on a countdown to Iran’s storages filling up and oil fields shutting down. But the physical and the financial flows move in different cycles, especially for Tehran under the sanctions regime. Revenues will continue to flow...
Oil Execs Predict Minimal US Output Rise Amid Iran War
Most oil executive expect limited US production increase in response to the Iran War Most likely increase is only about 0.25 mmb/d https://t.co/tAfbtRENxE
Oil Execs Predict $2‑$6 Permanent Premium Post‑Crisis
Oil executives expect a PERMANENT $2-$6 premium on oil prices AFTER the Persian Gulf crisis is resolved Insurance, freight costs, and tolls are the main factors #OilMarkets #Brent #Geopolitics https://t.co/WQCvwSWvRX
Combined Hormuz and El Niño Pressures Trigger Food System Shock
The Hormuz supply crisis combines with El Nino to produce a massive food system shock, writes @ctindale Naphtha. El Niño. Logistics. Politics--all tightening at once Yields fall, prices rise, and stress cascades across food and state stability. Each manageable alone. Together—system stress. #FoodSecurity #Commodities...
Silver Shortage Claim Challenged by Low Futures Delivery Volume
If there is such a shortage of Silver, as those making the bullish case say there is, what do they say about only 3,301 contracts taking delivery in April Silver Futures....... that's approximately $1.2B which is like an intra day tick...
Oil Market Imbalance Drives Prices Higher
The oil market is not in equilibrium. ~14 mbd of supply has been disrupted. Inventories are being drawn at an extreme pace. Demand is falling — but not enough. There’s still a gap. This only clears one way: higher prices. Outstanding report by JPM. H/t to @HFI_Research...
June‑August Brent Risk Peaks Despite Hormuz Optimism
Most oil executives expect Hormuz opening in August Now look at the Brent futures curve. All the risk liquidity sits June thru August They may both be wrong. But they’re wrong together. #OilMarkets #Brent #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics https://t.co/TPkIDSc4sc
Iran Conflict Cuts Oil, Boosts US Petrochemical Edge
The global petrochemical system is built on oil, and the Iran war just pulled a massive chunk of that supply off the table. With roughly 13 million barrels per day knocked offline, countries that rely on refining crude into naphtha...
Supply Vs. Demand Oil Shocks: Asymmetric Realities
Oil demand shocks are one thing; oil supply shocks are another. Nothing is symmetric. Even government policy responses are different. Comparisons among various shocks in the last 50 years are not an easy task. They require detailed knowledge of: 1. history 2. geography 3....
Oil Slump Signals Waning Demand, Not Bullish Optimism
The narrative is that oil crashing is bullish — inflation cools, the consumer wins, rate cuts come sooner. Maybe. Or maybe oil is crashing because global demand is quietly rolling over and nobody wants to say it out loud. Energy...
Investors Prefer Brent Dates, Futures Marriages Mislead Markets
Investors and media have often dated Brent but married futures (thanks, I'll be here all week). A lucid new @CSIS primer explores this dynamic and why it sends false signals — a hot topic these days. Link in next post....
Europe’s High Energy Prices Cause Rationing, Not Demand Destruction
Goldman says Europe is seeing “demand destruction” from high energy prices. Not quite — this is rationing, not demand responding to price. That distinction matters more than it sounds. 🧵
US Oil Rig Count Drops 3: Real Decline or Relocation?
US oil-directed rig count declined by 3 last week. Is this actual decline or "relocation"?
Renewables Dominate CAISO, Gas Share Drops 60%
To date in 2026, fossil gas has met only 16.7% of demand on the CAISO grid, versus 41.6% in 2023. -->Gas is down 60% since 2023. In 2026, WindWaterSolar has met 51.5% of demand, three times that of gas 23 straight...
China Polysilicon Prices Hit Floor as Output Drops
China polysilicon hits cost floor as producers curb output amid weak demand #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/jGWoOcYhf9
Gold Bull Market Persists, Targeting $6‑7K per Ounce
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the STRENGTH OF GOLD: "The secular gold bull market is intact... I think the bull will peak out around $6,000 to $7,000 an ounce." STAY LONG GOLD or GET LONG. https://t.co/UzLL4ZBLh3
Eurozone Prices Surge Amid Second Month of Iran War
Euro zone price spike seen surging higher in 2nd nonth of Iran war https://t.co/Zs6xbpsYFw via @CraigStirling https://t.co/ATtxy6wpPJ
Brent Climbs $14 This Week, Hormuz Market Steady
Brent crude (June futs) currently up just more than $14/bbl on the week. Just another normal week in the Hormuz market. https://t.co/j33nO5RKff
Trump’s First Energy Move: Lobbying OPEC, Revealing Market Savvy
First substantive action Trump took on energy after he was inaugurated was to lobby OPEC (Saudi Arabia & UAE) to produce more to bring down prices. While I think that was a misguided action, it showed Trump had a better...
Iran's Oil Sales Surge, Economy Strengthens Amid War
My take on @PalisadesRadio on why Iran is winning: "Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, Iran has been selling more crude at HIGHER PRICES. Iran’s oil revenue has increased, the rial has appreciated, & inflation has come down." https://t.co/6yxURxFAlZ
Higher Foreign Demand Fuels Surge in US Oil Exports
"We barely use the Strait … and we have plenty of energy. Just look at the new global congo line headed to Texas, a beautiful picture" 🫠 the "congo line" cometh bc others are willing to pay more for American barrels,...
Analyzing Hormuz Oil Gap and Twitter Fury
I had an absolute blast joining @JacobShap & @Geo_papic on the Geopolitical Cousins pod to talk about the Hormuz oil supply hole. Come for the barrel math, stay for the "which Twitter replies drive me to douse myself with gasoline and...
Urals Crude Dips Below $100, Still Near 2022 Highs
MOSCOW, April 24 (Reuters) - Prices for Russia's flagship Urals crude at its western ports slipped below $100 per barrel late last week, easing from 14-year highs but still at their strongest levels since mid-2022, traders' data and Reuters calculations...
Palladium Poised to Break $1,472‑$1,586 Range
Narrowing Palladium's Range to $1,472-$1,586 Stuck between its downward sloping 50-day moving average and the uptrend in its 200-day moving average, palladium appears ripe to exit its narrowing cage at about $1,472-$1,586 per ounce on April 23. Full report on the...
WTI Crude Slides From $98 to $94 Today
WTI crude oil from near $98 at 6am ET to $94 briefly a moment ago https://t.co/fFM4s4uIt1
Oil Markets Heed Flows, Not Rhetoric, for Relief
The market isn’t listening to rhetoric anymore. It’s watching flows. Until there’s real change on the water—more barrels moving, not fewer—tightness persists. Talk doesn’t ease supply. Only flows do. #OilMarkets #CrudeOil #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Shipping https://t.co/JfaJv5JqX3
Oil Futures Liquidity Vanishes After December 2026
"The back end of the curve is lying to us," says @Bob_McNally No. You’re reading noise. There’s barely any liquidity past Dec ’26—and none beyond ’27. Just because you don't understand the curve, doesn't mean it's lying #OilMarkets #Brent #Futures #EnergyCrisis #Liquidity https://t.co/PQM1225W1s
Export Collapse Boosts US/Canada Prices, yet Halts Risk Oversupply
As Persian Gulf and Russian exports collapse, global prices will rise, which should benefit the U.S. and Canada. However, if exports are halted to keep gasoline prices down, then North America would become oversupplied. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/9vsV5HAcmy https://t.co/34b7yklfSr
Indonesia to Import 150 Million Barrels of Russian Crude
JAKARTA, April 24 (Reuters) - Indonesia will import 150 million barrels of crude oil from Russia this year, the country's deputy energy minister Yuliot Tanjung said on Friday.
US LNG Exports Surge: 10th Terminal Ships First Cargo
Dynamics and Surging Magnitude of US LNG Exports: Started 10 Years Ago in a Glut of Natural Gas that Collapsed the Price. Now 10th liquefaction & export terminal shipped first cargo. List of LNG export terminals, operating & under construction https://t.co/HdkB6QZpYk https://t.co/chnWGcbNcj
Oil Futures Hit Record Pessimism Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
The news out of the Middle East might have seemed less dire lately, but oil futures are now basically as pessimistic as they've ever been. This could be a concern that the current war continues, or it could be concern...