Indonesia Reexamines QMB Nickel Licence Amid Tightening RKAB Quotas
Indonesia reviews QMB nickel licence after IMIP landslide as RKAB quotas tighten nickel supply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/qmb-nickel-licence-review-signals.html
U.S. Light Shale Oil Mismatch Drives Massive Imports
The US produces oil but not the right kind • US crude is dominated by light shale oil • Refineries are optimized for heavier crude • Light oils yield too much gasoline, not enough diesel That's why the US imports 6 mmb/d #energy #OOTT...
Global Economy Inching Toward a Massive Oil Shock
Haven’t seen lines like this since airlines in March 2020 It really does seem to me that the whole world is sleepwalking into a massive oil shock. Would be delighted to be wrong. What am I missing?
Starbucks Forecasts Lower Tariffs, Coffee Costs Later 2024
Starbucks expects tariffs and coffee prices to ease in the back half of this year. $SBUX
Precious Metals Near Oversold, Rebound Likely Soon
The precious metals complex remains firmly in an uptrend and is now approaching oversold levels, a condition that often signals a rebound is near.
Defying OPEC Quotas Invites Invasion, UAE Demands Guarantees
Probably worth reminding that the last time a gulf state defied opec quotas in the context of damages from a wider regional war with Iran, it also got invaded. Context was that after the Iran–Iraq War, Iraq was heavily indebted and...
UAE Exits OPEC After Six Decades, Reshaping Oil Market
JUST IN: The UAE has left OPEC after 59 years. Oil will never be the same. Here's what's happening and why it matters:
UAE Exit Leaves OPEC with Minimal Market Power
With the UAE exit, OPEC has officially lost most influence it still had over global oil markets... Full analysis available exclusively for Analyst Tier members on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/Es6KeSByiI #opec #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/UIfE0geRBI
Gold Remains Bullish Long‑Term, Yet Near‑Term Risks Loom
GS: Structurally Bullish Gold, Tactically Cautious Near‑Term Risks Skew to the Downside, With Gold Still Vulnerable to Liquidation If Hormuz Disruptions Persist https://t.co/jO5rDjhspl
May RBOB Hits $3.57; June Settles
May RBOB soared to $3.57 today, but June will soon be the prompt.. it's 13 cents lower https://t.co/FFrAdC596l
Hormuz Insurance Remains Critical Amid Global Energy Turmoil
⭕️UAE Exits OPEC: Implications for Global Oil Markets ⭕️Oil & LNG Tankers Transit Hormuz: What About Insurance? ⭕️The Media Hype Around Iran’s Oil Storage Situation ⭕️Aramco OSPs: Will They Lower the Premium? ⭕️Malacca Strait: The Next Flashpoint? ⭕️EU Jet Fuel Crisis: One Among Many ⭕️Vietnam to...
Oil Cartel Shows Serious Cracks, Says Geoffrey
Geoffrey has written abundantly on this topic for clients: that the Oil cartel had cracks - serious cracks. #UAE #OPEC https://t.co/WNKTZOV734
Energy Price Surge Triggers Unexpected Water Shortage
Oops. I was told this could never happen either. Don’t blame it on droughts. This is a second-order effect of the surge in energy prices. https://t.co/ebPms2fHjQ https://t.co/dA0xFI38wY
OPEC Needed as Price Anchor in Dollar‑driven World
OPEC is only needed to manage oil prices in a world where the reserve currency has no other anchor, because only a fool would sell finite oil reserves for infinite (non-gold-backed) dollars. IMO, this may be a big signal, but perhaps...
DBA Breakout to $31 Hints at Easing Inflation Pressures
Ag (DBA) big cup and handle breakout this week measuring to $31 and seeing 5000 October $31 alls buy $0.75 offers in unusual action, which would be a negative sign for inflation/rates
Silver Signals Surge Toward $150‑$200 Target
Every so often a market provides a tell as to the path it will take. Silver may be providing just such a tell. I have shared with Factor Members the path I believe Silver will take on its way to...
2026‑27 RVOs Drive Critical D4 RIN Generation Requirements
1. TH and I are out with a new FDD on the implications of the 2026 and 2027 RVOs for required D4 RIN generation. I know that is a mouthful. But the question is a critical one...
Renewables Cut Spain’s Wholesale Power Prices by 40%
Quoted in @guardian: A year ago Spain's grid collapsed. Solar was blamed, return to fossil predicted. Investigations found voltage failures. Then Hormuz closed. Spain was shielded as renewables cut wholesale prices by 40%. https://t.co/O5YBLqWtCI
Gold Breaks Key Fib Levels, Needs Fundamental Push
A clean technical breakdown from gold - clearing a couple of overlapping fib levels around 4,675/55. Looks similar to that Feb-March H&S breakdown, but we'll need some fundamental charge to render the same kind of follow through... https://t.co/LB6GtFfSVL
OPEC Nations Routinely Exceed Production Limits, Critics Overlook
People are out here acting like every single OPEC member didn't constantly exceed production/export limits every single day.
Demand Collapse, Not Supply, Drives Oil Market Shock
UAE leaving OPEC to pump more won’t save this market. Demand will break before supply does. Even with Hormuz open, we’re not going back to “normal.” This isn’t Kansas, Toto—it’s the other side of the shock to end all shocks. https://t.co/iSdVUiOkGq #OOTT...
UAE Exits OPEC to Boost Production, Accept Lower Prices
REACTION COLUMN: Why is the UAE leaving OPEC? The announcement has little to do with the US-Iran war; the exit road started in Riyadh, with a detour in Texas. It's all about the UAE wanting to pump more oil, even at the...
Gold Selloff Hits Key Levels, Signals Larger Market Shift
Short video update on the #Gold levels Gold Selloff Tests Critical Levels As Traders Brace For Bigger Market Shift https://t.co/rnTz0WpF40 On YouTube: https://t.co/q5Cz7Q2RUx
Wheat Shows Strong Multi‑Quarter Breakout Amid Supply Disruptions
$WEAT Daily. Clean, multi-quarter breakout in Wheat likely being overlooked this morning given action & headlines elsewhere. But ramifications are important given supply disruptions. https://t.co/DCE8xmUj62
Silver Shortage Pressures Speculators Amid Industrial Demand
Given all the hype and talk of a Silver shortage/deficit, and how the available physical supply is being depleted to meet industrial needs beyond mining/production, the Speculators are having their patience put to the test. I think if they...
June Gold Futures Slip Below Dec‑29 High $4
Looking at June #Gold Futures move decisively below the 12/29/25 HOD print at $4645.4 https://t.co/6XqLVzB8I5
Strait of Hormuz Drives Oil Surge Over Russia
Brent is now up 65% from pre-war (blue) vs 16% on a similar timescale in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine (black). The Strait of Hormuz is 3x as important as Russia for global oil markets. Markets are pricing that. Even...
CatL Likely Remains Price Taker, Not Market Maker
Doubtful but even if it does happen it won’t be more than a short term blip & PR win. @catl_official will be more price taker than maker in this cycle.
Iran Stockpiles Oil as US Blockade Stalls Hormuz Shipments
According to the WSJ, "Iran is scrambling to find new ways to store its oil, hoping to avoid a crippling production shutdown as a U.S. naval blockade bottles up its exports and negotiations to end the war remain deadlocked." This coincides...
Current Bitcoin Chart Misrepresents Fundamentals; $18K Too Low
What is wrong with this picture? It seems based at least loosely on the mid range of the last two cycles. That isn’t likely to happen. The supply - demand fundamentals are substantially different this cycle. Plus, $18K is too...
US Wheat Signals Potential 2026 Corn Belt Drought
May Agriculture Outlook - Is US Wheat Foretelling a 2026 Corn Belt Drought? Gas May Guide April is typically a peak price month in the grains. Speculators are the longest they've been in about three years, while winter and spring wheat...
Crude Oil Expected to Fall, Capping Grain Prices
All Linked Now -- How Long Can Crude Buoy Grains? If crude oil stays elevated in 2026, grain and agriculture prices may as well, but elasticity is typically a primary constraint. My bias is that the December WTI crude future, at...
Grain Speculators at 3‑year High Amid Abundant Corn, Soybean Supplies
Specs are Long Despite Ample Corn, Soybean Supply Speculators in the grains are the longest they've been in about three years, despite elevated US corn stocks and substantial soybean supply from South America. Full report on the Bloomberg terminal here: https://t.co/SrDvq26ZtG {BI...
U.S. Economy Cuts Per‑Capita Oil Use 30% Since 1978
U.S. ECONOMY has become much less oil-intensive following the oil shocks of 1973/74 and 1979/80. Consumption per person has declined by almost 30% compared with the peak in 1978: https://t.co/lFMjjJ7yJ8
EIA Predicts Brent Falling From $124 to $68 by 2027
EIA projects Brent to average $124 in May It will fall to $86 by December and end 2027 at $68 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/lvYTPIuacn
Kpler's Half‑production Cut for Iran Remains Speculative
Kpler estimates Iranian crude production COULD fall from current levels by more than half It may be directionally reasonable but it’s a guess, not evidence. AIS gaps, spoofing, ghost fleets, STS transfers and wartime rerouting mean “loadings” are not confirmed exports. https://t.co/wqmEnea7g5
India’s Record Power Demand Forces Coal Surge Amid Heat
India's peak power demand hits an all-time high 🇮🇳⚡ This is being driven by searing temperatures across the country Plus, demand during the evening is outstripping available supply. India will use coal to fill the gap as the Middle East conflict chokes...
Iran's Oil Crisis Looms: 6‑8 Weeks Before Collapse
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── Iran's oil storage capacity stands at 12-22 days amid the U.S. naval blockade. The blockade has slashed Iranian oil exports by 70 percent. Strait of Hormuz oil shipments have nearly ceased. Iranian oil production faces a potential drop...
Gold Poised Near 4650, Buy 4625, Target 4680
Macro: Gold compresses at 4650 pre‑FOMC; real yields stable, USD firm. Key factors: yields, USD, positioning. Risk: FOMC shock breaks range. Trade: buy near 4625, target 4680, stop 4600. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran's Dwindling Storage Signals a Gradual Oil Squeeze
Iran has several weeks of storage left, says @Kpler Iran's pain isn’t immediate or decisive This is a slow squeeze, not a sudden break. https://t.co/sB1UdJek5w #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis
Brent Rebounds Above $109 as Ceasefire Stalls
Day 60 of the war -- Brent futures back above $109. Levels are back where they were before the fragile US-Iran ceasefire took effect, around Day 40, prompting optimism over a deal. 20 days of ceasefire have yielded no breakthrough, no...
LPG Booking Gaps Tighten, Prices Rise From May 1
LPG booking rules, prices set to change from May 1. Indian Oil, BPCL, and HPCL are reportedly discussing new LPG booking and delivery rules ahead of May 1. The minimum gap between refill bookings was raised to 25 days in urban...
3‑Bar Triangle Signals Strong Move Beyond Overlap
This is what a 3 bar triangle looks like on a market profile chart off silver. When the market moves out of overlapping value areas like this, that is what leads to a more powerful move. https://t.co/5BsGdriJ9E
European Power Costs Climb Even As Gas Prices Drop
European electricity prices increase despite falling gas prices #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/yh6Ywee30g https://t.co/ktltUXCLZn
Three Strategies to Ride the US Grain Bull Market
Three ways to play the ongoing bull market in U.S. grain prices https://t.co/Ghz72lxQY3 Corn $ZC_F Soybeans $ZS_F Rapeseed $RS_F
Modern Gas Crisis Far Less Severe than 1979
Why This Gas Crisis Isn’t Hitting Like 1979 #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/EtZvmxCi20 https://t.co/ZE4aZ1dk3N
US Winter Wheat Stable, Condition Index Drops, Protein Rises
The US winter #wheat crop was unchanged at 30% G/E, but my condition index score fell 3 points to 287, as P/VP jumped 2 points to 35%. #oatt
Good/Excellent Ratings Mask Worsening Wheat Condition
Why I don't just follow Good/Excellent ratings - Nebraska winter #wheat G/E rose 1 point this week, but its condition index score dropped 26 points because the percent rated Poor to Very Poor rose 20 points to 65% this week....
China's Oil Demand Set to Fall Before 2030
What they know, but aren't saying, is that oil demand in China is set to decline soon, probably before 2030. Other Asian countries will follow soon after. Why don't ABDanielleSmith and BrianJeanAB know this? Wrong answers only. Let's have some fun with...
Focus Shifts to May Silver Futures Delivery Window
Silver futures update: Following the excitement and speculation ahead of the March silver futures expiry and concerns about available deliverable supply, attention has now shifted to the May contract, where the next notice (delivery) period is fast approaching.