China Eases Fuel Export Ban for Select Asian Buyers
Important development: China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export some gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel to a handful of regular customers (in Asia), signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments.
2026 European Shock Driven by Oil, Not Gas
CHART OF THE DAY: The 2022 European energy crisis was mostly about natural gas and electricity prices. The shock of 2026 is (in Europe) largely about oil. EU power markets remain largely stable (📉⤵️). A key reason is that France is...
One Man's Ego Drives US Price Spikes
🚨 ONE MAN'S EGO 🚨 AVERAGE GAS PRICE IN US TODAY : $4.18 AVERAGE GAS PRICE IN US YESTERDAY : $4.12 AVERAGE GAS PRICE IN US BEFORE WAR : $2.98 Not just gas, US WHEAT prices jumped $6.58 per bushel, the highest since June...
India Shifts to Venezuelan Crude, Reducing Iraqi Imports
🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳 12 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are sailing to India on 6 supertankers. This should replace a good chunk of the Iraqi oil India used to import Map form @Kpler
Brent Hovers Near $124, Market Awaits First Blink
Brent (June) exceeded 126/b earlier, now around $124/b. Bottom line: Who is going to blink first?
U.S. Gas Prices Top $4.20, Set to Surge
Pain at the pump -- consequential and will get more so: The national average for a gallon of regular gas (petrol) in the US has surged again ... to over $4.20 (AAA table below). It’s almost impossible to imagine prices won't climb...
Brent Spikes 5% as Market Fears Military Escalation
JUNE BRENT FUTURES AT ALMOST $124, ANOTHER 5% JUMP EARLY THU AFTER A 6% RALLY ON WED. It's the last trading day for the June contract, and most volume has already shifted to July. But still, the market is getting...
Oil Surges to Wartime Highs as US Eyes Iran
Screaming Red Headline on Bloomberg *OIL HITS WARTIME HIGH ON REPORT US EYING IRAN MILITARY OPTIONS June Brent futures (green) have doubled since the beginning of the year December Brent Futures (blue) set a new all-time high. https://t.co/MdXjetPtqJ
Hormuz Closure Fuels Looming Oil Price Spike
It’s now been a month since this posting of mine. I still don’t think it’s dawned on most investors that Hormuz isn’t opening until Iran wants it open. With oil starting to get frisky to the upside, I think we’re getting...
22‑Year Low: US Crude and Gasoline Stocks Plunge
Biggest weekly comparative inventory decrease in 22 years U.S. C.I. fell 19 mmb & crude fell 6.3 mmb for the week ending April 24 Crude oil and all refined products decreased #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/1QZP2U0rd2
Fed Split as Oil Spikes and Yields Rise
Oil at $110, blockade tightening, inflation expectations rising. Bond yields climbing. Yet the Fed just split down the middle on whether to cut or hold rates. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yK33qZsRVh
Traders Dismiss Political Optimism, Align With Physical Oil Reality
So, what is happening in the crude futures market? Simple : Traders are starting to discount the hope/expectation/sentiment shaped by de-escalatory head fakes from Washington to realign with the reality glaringly evident in the physical markets for weeks now.
Distillate Stocks Hit Historic Lows, Diesel Prices Surge
Distillate Inventories to Plunge to Historic Lows and Diesel Prices Head for Records US Inventories, Exports, Imports, and Refinery Utilization (12 Charts). https://t.co/6OOFLjRzqS
July Brent Price Matters More than June Amid Crisis
June Brent > $122/bbl July Brent >$113/bbl In the current crisis, that July price is a much bigger deal than the June price.
China’s 2‑3‑Month Iranian Crude Buffer Soon Ends
Roughly 155 mb of Iranian crude and condensate already sits outside the Gulf chokepoint, reports @Kpler China has a 2–3 month buffer of Iranian barrels outside the Gulf. After that, supply tightens, prices rise, and margins get squeezed. #OilMarkets #Iran #China #Refining...
Brent Spot Leads Futures, Backwardation at $123/$120
The latest physical-through-financial Brent curve. Dated Brent at $123.37/bbl today, June futures pushing $120/bbl https://t.co/fiyAh1aKp6
Oil Futures Surge Past $100, Stocks Remain Flat
June Crude oil Futures have been moving towards, and now have broken back above $100 ($106.43 +6.50), and stocks are yawning like its still $80. https://t.co/lX4zGyKkb7
Trudeau Juggles Three Pipeline Choices as Oil Slides
Cast your minds back to November, 2016. Trudeau gov't faces 3 pipeline decisions: Line 3, Northern Gateway, and TMX. Energy East remains under consideration w 1 million bpd committed. President Trump has just announced a revival of Keystone XL. WTI...
Oil Surge Threatens US Growth, Yet Markets Remain Unfazed
Oil +7% today, 36% in last 9 trading days Brent above $119/ barrel = Highest since 2022 Gas prices $4.23 / gallon = Highest since 2022 Prices of everything will start going up - confirms we'll get HAWKISH FED HOLD
Geopolitical Risks Drive Long-Term Contracts, Boost Low‑carbon Fertilizer
The top executive at Atome sees the low-carbon fertilizer industry getting a boost as buyers shift to long-term contracts amid rising geopolitical risks. https://t.co/oo6Au7EQpp
UAE's OPEC Exit Signals Major Shift in Oil Market
I usually share my initial thoughts on various energy market developments here first, but I'm trying to branch out and yesterday I wrote this on the UAE's exit from OPEC on LinkedIn: https://t.co/imFAPkipF4 #OOTT #oil #UAE #OPEC
Gas Prices Hit Postwar High, Burdening Low‑Income Families
Gas prices continue to climb as Persian Gulf supply disruptions push Brent crude to about $108 a barrel and U.S. crude above $103. Gas prices are up to a postwar high of $4.23 a gallon, while diesel reached $5.64. Analysts...
Rising WTI/XLE Ratio Signals Oil‑Led Market Shift
WTI crude 72% y-o-y vs XLE (energy equities) 47% y-o-y. * Rising ratio = oil outperforming energy stocks * Falling ratio = energy stocks outperforming oil The WTI/XLE ratio turning up is the signal. It suggests a shift from energy as mature, low...
Without Supply Discipline, US Shale Faces Price Collapse
In 2015 OPEC failed to do what swing producers had done since 1932 - cut under a surplus. It allowed a glut to form. In 2020, OPEC+ disunity and ramp to max exacerbated the demand collapse. In both cases...
Oil's 70% YoY Rise Still Lags Gold Benchmarks
Oil is up 70% year-on-year but still not a particularly impressive run in hard-money gold terms. Only back to the 2016 low. https://t.co/O03mkZeW1S
Oil Rally Pushes WTI Past $105, Spikes OVX Volatility
US benchmark oil (WTI) is above 105 on a more than 5% climb today. Brent is near 110. Notably, the rally is stirring a commensurate rebound in the OVX volatility index - similar to the Mar 25 - Apr 2...
US Export Surge Drains Inventories, Threatening Energy Security
The world is calling on the barrel of last resort — and it’s brutal for the US. American total petroleum exports (crude and refined products) surged last week to an all-time high >14m b/d. The price? US total inventories plunged at ~3.5...
OPEC+ Collapse Threatens US Shale with Price Volatility
Au contraire, @WSJ: A fractured or absent OPEC+ is a disaster for the US oil industry and foreign policy. No OPEC+ = Wild Price Volatility = Gut punch for high-cost US shale oil, the first victim when oversupply...
US Petroleum Stocks Tumble, 13.3 M Barrel Draw
Thereeeeee sheeeee goessssss US commercial petroleum inventories fell by a headline 17 million barrels, PLUS another 7.1 million barrels of SPR crude draws. 13.3 MMbbl total crude draw (comm + SPR), 6.1 MMbbl gasoline draw, 4.5 MMbbl diesel draw. https://t.co/81Zl4NqhBb
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.23, 30‑Year High
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.23 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 42% spike over the last 9 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.23/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/Rw1sNI6MuP
US Crude Stocks Drop; Distillates Hit 5‑year Low
EIA: US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.2 mb to 459.5 mb Significant products draw Distillates inventories are below the 5-year range https://t.co/s54OTlsxtI
Iran's Storage Capacity Far Exceeds Admin's Short‑term Estimates
This is the key calculation here - how much room in floating storage and in onshore facilities. Admin’s calc that Iran will have no room in a few days is clearly just wrong
Rice Prices Hit 19-Year Low, Farmers Need Support
Again, wholesale rice prices below pre-war levels (fully reversing a mini panic move earlier in April). On a monthly average basis, rice isn't far away from its lowest level in 19 years. For Asian nations, the problem is that rice is...
Refinery Jet and Diesel Peaks Cut Other Outputs, Prices Rise
When oil refineries go "max" jet and "max" diesel, they (necessarily) also reduce output of other products. The market is starting to price it.
US Gas Prices Surge Again Under Trump Administration
CHART OF THE DAY: After a short relief period, US gasoline retail prices have climbed to another high under a Trump administration. (Coincidentally, President Trump met yesterday with oil CEOs. I bet the White House will be soon announcing new...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Fertilizer Surge, Threatens Planting
Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices. Hitting countries at what should be planting times. Pending food supply shortages and high prices. Hormuz—a global supply chain disaster.
World Bank Predicts 24% Energy Price Surge by 2026
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, the World Bank estimates that energy prices will SURGE by 24% in 2026. WARS = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/s4wF67lMDm
Goldman Sachs Hikes Oil Forecasts Amid Hormuz Shutdown
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted oil-price forecasts as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz spurs 'extreme' inventory draws." -BBG
Brent $120+ Needed to Hit 2005 Energy Index High
This Year May Test a Top Force in Energy - Elasticity If Brent crude oil can stay above $120 a barrel, the Bloomberg Energy Spot Index may top 2005's high. Both outcomes appear unlikely absent something very bad happening in the...
Energy Surge May Trigger Deflation, Crude Prices Collapse
Energy Surge Can Be a Lose-Lose for Crude Prices Spiking diesel, gasoline and natural gas prices, particularly in Europe and Asia, are curbing demand, and it's a question of magnitude and duration. My top takeaway from the energy crisis is that...
Oil Rises Ahead of Powell’s Final Meeting, Middle East Tensions
Oil Prices Advance Ahead of What Will likely be Powell's Last FOMC Meeting (as Chair): There are two dominant issues today. First, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, but the blockade of Iran is an act of war, and...
Oil Price Standoff: Unclear Who Will Yield First
So is the idea that once oil hits $130 or $140 someone will cave but we just don’t know who? This is like a pro sports standoff heading into a strike but more annoying.
Metals May Have Peaked in 2026, Silver Risks Reversal
May Metals Outlook - 2026 High-Price Cure Can Endure for Years - Gold, Silver Historically, metals -- the best-performing commodities sector -- may have reached an up-too-much plateau in 2026. Silver is on the cusp of turning a roughly 70% 1Q...
Oil Hits Record, Yields Firm Ahead of Hawkish FOMC
Two issues dominate today. Oil prices have risen. July Brent is at a new record and June WTI is approaching the March high. Bond yields are firmer. Second, is the FOMC meeting, where a hawkish hold is expected. Warsh...
Physical‑paper Oil Price Gap Narrows to Six‑week Low
Lots of ink was spilled in recent weeks on decoupling between physical and paper oil prices (lhs). But here we are: the gap (rhs) is the narrowest it's been in 6 weeks. This after all the talk this gap could...
Oil Markets Stalled; Inflation Rising, Consumers Feel It First
Talks are stuck, Hormuz is still constrained, and paper oil is catching up to physical reality. UAE policy shifts don’t matter mid-crisis. Inflation is rising—and consumers see it before policymakers do. #OilMarkets #Inflation #Hormuz https://t.co/210C3G49T1
Oil Climbs Above $100 as US Pressures Iran
Oil prices are higher again as the US doubles down on Iran: With news that America's "blockade of the blockade" is now targeting Iranian ports longer-term, WTI oil has followed Brent in trading above $100 (CNBC table below). #economy #oil #markets
Silver Drops, yet Traders Pile Into Long Options
Despite #silver closing down 3.88% at $82.2/oz on the #SHFE yesterday, the options flow tells a different story. Traders have been adding to their long bets
CITIC Turns Bullish, Adds 3,022 Silver Contracts
#CITIC Flips Long on Silver🚨Major positioning shift on the #SHFE as CITIC has officially flipped Net Positive (+3,022 contracts) on silver.
China's LNG Imports Plunge to Eight‑year Low Amid Middle East Conflict
DEMAND DESTRUCTION: China's LNG imports are on track to hit an 8-year low 🇨🇳🚢 The Middle East conflict is choking supply of LNG to China. It is also boosting spot prices, discouraging Chinese firms to buy replacements China can instead turn to...