Eramet's Nickel Quota Slashed 70%, Threatening Indonesian Supply
Eramet’s Weda Bay Nickel received a 70pc lower 2026 quota, raising new concerns over Indonesian ore supply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/eramet-weda-bay-nickel-quota-cut-raises.html
Japan Pledges $10 B to Fuel Southeast Asia
Japan will provide as much as $10 billion in financial support to Southeast Asian countries to help them buy oil 🇯🇵🤝🛢️ This is the biggest effort yet to help cash-strapped developing nations deal with fuel shortages (This benefits Japan. SE Asia key to...
Bloom Energy's Oracle Deal Spurs Scandium Boom
Congratulations to Bloom Energy $BE on their deal with Oracle The koala is absolutely thrilled to see the demand growth trajectory for bloom boxes inflect higher and higher 4kg per 100kw scandium density (Gemini screenshot below) is ~40 tonnes per GW Let’s...
New Lithium Finds Slash Battery Costs, Accelerate 100% Renewable Shift
With the discovery of 30% more world lithium resources in one year, battery-electric vehicle and stationary battery storage prices should continue to drop rapidly, facilitating world electrification and the inevitable transition to 100% WindWaterSolar across all energy sectors.
IMF Adds Olive Oil to Its Commodity Basket.
I just realized the IMF has expanded the basket of commodities it tracks, adding olive oil (among others). I think my job is done here.
Accurate Oil Bottom Forecast Highlights Demand Overestimation
We essentially nailed the exact bottom in our coverage at @RealVision and Nowcast IQ, largely thanks to our nowcasting, which showed that conditions had stabilized and, in some cases, were already beginning to improve. Oil futures are now already below pre-blockade...
Iran Conflict Fuels Massive Commodity Price Surges
Since the start of the Iran war... Sulfur: +67% Jet Fuel: +66% Urea: +51% Diesel: +50% Heating Oil: +40% WTI Crude Oil: +37% European Natural Gas: +34% Gasoline: +32% Fertilizer: +31% Brent Crude Oil: +31% Coal: +14% Palm Oil: +10% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +4% S&P 500: +1% $VIX: -8%
Candy Prices Rise Even as Cocoa Prices Plummet
I really don't understand how candy/cocoa prices at the store are so darn high... cocoa prices have literally crashed. I mean, I get there's labor, transport, marketing costs etc.. but jeez prices are way up since 2024... when cocoa was $12k/ton...
Record-High Live Cattle Prices Prompt Fresh Market Stock‑Up
Live Cattle record high @augurinfinity https://t.co/QegXc8T5en I better stock up on the $4.99/lb deal at @thefreshmarket https://t.co/fv3gfz6xdC
Jet Fuel Shortage Looms for Year After Middle East Disruption
Even if the ceasefire holds, we are looking at a months-long shortage of jet fuel on a global basis, most heavily focused on the Southeast and Northeast Asian zone. The Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Saudi [medium-heavy sour] crudes that are favored in...
US Gas Gains Offset by Qatar Losses, Hurting Global Economy
I have to question some people's math. Qatar is down 8 bcm and the US is up 2.6 bcm. The issue here is the difference is not being made up and what is good for the US in the short-term is bad...
Yttrium Prices Surge 140‑Fold Amid China Restrictions
ICYMI Rare earth yttrium hits new high, up 140-fold in 1 year on China curbs Crazy https://t.co/IlKp0JP6Ny via @NikkeiAsia
Half‑price Eggs Create Massive Arbitrage—Ration or Profit
If you are selling eggs for half the price of the going rate, unless you ration the eggs, this is a massive arbitrage opportunity.
Hormuz Disruption Slashes Global Oil Flow, Tanker Trade Falters
Global Oil Flows Plunge as Hormuz Disruption Chokes Tanker Trade. A narrow take of what is happening. https://t.co/mROsy4L0Hr
European Gas Prices Plunge to 7‑Week Low Amid Oversupply
CHART OF THE DAY: European natural gas benchmark prices (TTF) fall to 7-week low. Current prices are about the same as in late-January, when I don’t remember anyone in Brussels (or Frankfurt) talking about a crisis and/or inflation problem. LNG market...
Extreme Brent Backwardation Pushes Physical Prices $20 Above Dated Brent
Charting the Brent complex today to add some context to the numbers bouncing around. Pretty well everything weird in the current oil market can be explained via *extreme* backwardation (i.e., near-term delivery premia), and as you can see the intense futures...
Geopolitical Risk Revives, Sparking Rapid Market Shifts
US-Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend. Markets repriced oil, gold, and risk assets instantly. Geopolitical risk premiums aren't dead — they're just dormant between headlines. When they wake up, they move fast. $WTI $GLD $SPY — all in play. https://t.co/oTOb2cKuEy
IMF Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Fifth Global Recession
the imf's worst case scenario for the iran war: oil at $110 this year, $125 next year. inflation hitting 6%. global growth falling below 2%. that would be a global recession — the fifth since 1980.
Oil Shock Fleeting, Fed Should Ignore; Egg Prices Fundamentally Falling
An oil-price shock is “temporary” and the Fed should look through it. But egg price deflation is fundamental.
Mild Winter Triggers US Gas Price Plunge
U.S. gas prices plunge after exceptionally mild end to winter U.S. gas futures prices have slumped after the warmest end to winter for more than 15 years caused storage injections to begin earlier than normal, with the threat storage space would...
CGNT Hits High‑grade Copper; PEA Imminent Amid Demand Surge
$CGNT.v MD-060: 68m @ 0.97% CuEq inside 371m @ 0.53% CuEq. Higher grades at southern margin (141m @ 0.71% CuEq). Copper ~$6/lb on AI/electrification demand + supply deficits. 3 rigs drilling toward PEA. @Cu_Giant should attract some attention.
China’s March Soybean Imports Slump Far Below Expectations
🇨🇳China imported 4.02 million metric tons of soybeans in March, well below expectations and the month's average (both ~6 mmt). Halfway through 2025/26, total imports were a 3-yr high BUT below the 5-yr avg on minimal US arrivals. 10+ mmt per...
US Inflation Peaks as Hormuz Shock
JUST IN: US PPI inflation rises to 4%, its highest since February 2023. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz supply shock is estimated to cause oil demand to contract by 80,000 barrels per day — the largest drop since COVID. Are you...
European Gas Hits Lowest Since War Began
European natural gas prices are heading toward their lowest settlement since the war started (Feb 28), currently trading at €43 per MWh (that's ~$15 per mBtu). The European gas benchmark TTF is now **lower** than it was in late January...
Canada Pauses Fuel Tax, Cutting Gas Price 10¢ per Litre
After Germany, here it comes Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will suspend a fuel excise tax until Labor Day weekend. The measure will lower gasoline prices by 10 Canadian cents per liter, and diesel by 4 Canadian cents.
Rising Power Bills From AI Data Centers Fuel Election Backlash
Bloomberg: "Across the country, soaring electricity costs are burdening consumers and stirring voter anger. The rapid build-out of artificial intelligence data centers, along with tariffs and upgrades to an aging grid, has raised power prices at rates unseen in decades....
Bullish on Oil as Hormuz Closure Sparks Market Tension
I'm used to oil hate because, well, I'm not a permabull and normally the dooming is deeply overwrought This episode has been weird bc I'm bullish oil given THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN CLOSED FOR SIX WEEKS and now I've...
WTI's $7 Drop Signals Ongoing Geopolitical Volatility
WTI crude dropped from $104 to $97.24 in 24 hours — a $7 swing in a single session. That's not a market. That's a volatility event. US-Iran breakdown + supply uncertainty = oil as a geopolitical instrument. Watch $WTI. The whiplash isn't over....
Gold Surges Toward $4,800 as Safe‑haven Demand Spikes
$GLD is pushing toward $4,800/oz. Gold rebounded from $4,704 support and has a target of $4,858. Safe haven demand is not slowing. When gold climbs like this amid geopolitical chaos, the market is telling you something. Listen. https://t.co/VaXIlIQhKQ
April Sees 10 MMbpd Crude Draw in First Nine Days
Good morning, oil watchers. Vortexa tracking crude/condy stock draws of 10 MMbpd through the first 9 days of April. That's a lot.
Oil Futures Lag Spot Prices Amid White House Influence
Excellent @wsj dive into what's driving the growing divergence between relatively tame oil futures prices and much higher prices on the spot market https://t.co/MLJoHMhDx5 One thing: oil traders convinced prices will go higher don't want to bet against White House...
China's Q1 Lithium Battery Exports Surge, Signaling Energy Shift
China’s lithium battery exports surged in the first quarter, reinforcing signs of demand for alternative power sources to counter the global energy-supply crunch https://t.co/tdvAMTghZb
IEA Warns Forced Oil Contraction Amid Record Supply Loss
IEA just confirmed it: Record supply loss, collapsing demand, inventories draining. This isn’t a price spike—it’s forced contraction. Reopen Hormuz or brace for impact. https://t.co/Svzz77tows #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics
Front‑month Brent Under $100; Peace Deal Could Drop to $90
The oil price that matters is the front-month Brent futures contract (orange), which is now just below $100 per barrel. This is what people trade and where a peace deal will get priced if and when we get a deal....
Nordics Lead with Heat Pumps, Ditching Heating Oil
Heating oil prices are sky-rocketing around the world. The Nordics have understood the risks of using fossil fuels for heating early on and transitioned away from heating oil almost entirely whilst phasing in heat pumps. https://t.co/gvLYlMORck
Oil Surge Signals Glut Risks for Grains, Crypto
Oil Surge Flags Glut Risks Amid Bear Bounces in Grains, Cryptos Crude oil's move to about $100 a barrel during the Iran war from roughly $60 last year may echo 2022, with oil taking cues from plunging, well-supplied US natural gas....
Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Oversupplied Grains
Hedge Funds Are Long on Oversupplied Grains Hedge funds are at their most net long in about three years despite an oversupplied grain bear market after the Iran-war bounce. My graphic highlights the potential oxymoron: managed-money net longs in corn, soybeans...
Iranian Oil Discount Saves China $4.6B, Negligible Impact
By the US's own figures, discounted Iranian oil saved China $4.6 billion last year, about 1.5% of its oil import bill. That's in a $20 trillion economy. Nice for a few Chinese teapots, totally irrelevant to the Chinese economy.
Oklahoma Smelter's Long Build, No Tariff Profit Reliance
"The [Oklahoma] smelter will take at least three years to build and be expected to operate for decades. EGA says it isn’t counting on the tariffs that have helped drive up aluminum prices to make the project profitable." https://t.co/OFyR3UKIwS https://t.co/h0CtrCP2iy
HSBC CEO: War‑era Oil Price Hit $286 per Barrel
HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery said he’s seen the all-in price of oil reach as high as $286, for a barrel received by Sri Lanka, during the war https://t.co/KccLLhDePj (in conversation with @DavidInglesTV) https://t.co/v3TnBx0bsB
US Petroleum Exports Rise as Refined Product Shipments Surge
U.S. PETROLEUM EXPORTS accelerated by 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in March compared with the same month a year earlier as the war between the United States and Iran triggered a worldwide scramble for replacement crude and fuels. Crude...
Fund Managers Forecast Oil at $84 by 2026
"FMS investors expect oil to trade at $84/bbl by the end of 2026" - BofA April Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/Q8YqzLL8TR
US Blockade Hits India as Russian Oil Waiver Ends
JUST IN: US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz affects India as the Russian oil purchase waiver expires, escalating energy supply concerns.
IMF/WB Summit Likely Triggers Further Oil Price Drop
The IMF/WB meetings are happening this week in DC. My best guess is that they'll be a catalyst for oil prices to fall further. A lot of people are coming to DC from across the world and will realize the...
Global Oil Production Plunges 10.1 Million Bpd in March
JUST IN: Global oil output dropped 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million in March, one of the biggest monthly declines ever.
Oil Prices Dip as US Blocks Iranian Ports
JUST IN: Oil prices are falling as the US starts blocking Iranian ports, amid growing talk of negotiations.
IEA Predicts Global Oil Demand Decline in 2026
IEA: “Global oil demand is expected to fall by 80,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2026, revised down from growth of 640,000 barrels per day seen in last month’s report. The pace of decline will subside in our base case...
Europe Must Match Asian Prices to Secure LNG
If Europeans want to avoid gas shortages, they need to pay competitive prices — or their LNG shipments will keep getting diverted to the highest bidder in Asia. Map from @Kpler https://t.co/BUf2kkzmNN
2026 Super‑El
Let me clarify: - Upstream ops benefit from higher CPO price initially - In severe El Niños, lower output counteract the positive effect from higher CPO prices - Malaysia will be less impacted by droughts than Indonesia - The B50 fuel mandate in...
Hormuz Tensions Shift Oil Prices: Spot vs Futures
The Hormuz Crisis and the Oil Market: Spot vs. Futures – A Straightforward Classroom Explanation https://t.co/T7wjTKmYFV