Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Pulse
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Tuesday recap
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Bessent says too much is being made of the run-up in oil prices from Iran's retaliatory measures to U.S.-Israel strikes, claiming coverage of the risks around the Strait of Hormuz is being amplified by anti-Trump media bias and is part of Iran's strategy. Prices will eventually return to levels that are lower than what the oil futures curve anticipates. "This will end. And I don't know how many weeks it will be, but on the other side of this, the world will be safer and we will be better supplied." https://t.co/GhldS0j0Rf
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on the GLOBAL IMPACT of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ: "You’ve now closed off 20% of the world’s oil supply, 25% of the world’s liquid natural gas, and 35% of the world’s urea... There's going to be...
National average of gas prices is up 73 cents since the war started 15 days ago (middle panel), or 25% (bottom panel). https://t.co/NhhuStQnOD
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since October 2022, rising 35% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/pOPRl50mmA
Just a few notes on OIL CL before the Iran crisis started all research showed that supply was swamping demand as global production due to progess in discovery and drilling was exceeding demand especially with China going all in on EV Clearly...
Brent is up 42% from before the war began. That's a bigger risk premium than after the Ukraine invasion. Catalysts that can make Brent fall: (i) Trump ends the war; (ii) the US blockades Iranian ports (Iran's economy implodes); (iii)...
CLZ26 price of 75 is the expected forward spot price of oil for December delivery plus a risk premium. That risk premium is likely higher than normal (Z26 is cheaper than normal) due to the high incentive for those...
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
Gold Might Be Facing a Lose-Lose vs. Stocks - Gold has reached historic nosebleed levels at 1.6x vs. its five-year moving average in 2026, last matched at the 1979-80 peak, with reversion implications. What's notable from our graphic is the...
Historic Gold Stretch vs. Crude May Signal Peak - "Unsustainably high" describes the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold at the end of February. Only the collapse to negative crude prices in April 2020...
April WTI is trading lower as is the US dollar. The market still seems hopeful that exit ramps are found shortly, even though the conflict escalated over the weekend. Many are skeptical of the unexpected gains in PRC data....
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 159 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 10. Fund...
Shell says LNG demand could grow by as much as 85% through 2050 🌍 🚢 Asia is expected to be the main driver of demand, and further investments in new projects will be needed in the 2030s and 2040s to...
Silver Futures: Down >$3.5 to the $77 handle. I feel like the lone or one of the few folks who have remained negative on higher prices (for now) based on a few different factors.
Every time markets think this conflict lasts longer, oil prices rise. Anything that shortens it makes prices fall. A Trump TACO does that or a blockade of Iran's ports, which'll cause Iran's economy to implode, forcing the Mullahs to reopen...
South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation...
Morgan Stanley's Martijn Rats raised his oil-price forecast for Q2 to $110 a barrel, up from $80 previously. For Q3, he now sees $90 a barrel, up from $70. Even a reopening of the strait in the short term would...
U.S. government acknowledges oil prices will likely continue to rise until Strait of Hormuz is re.-opened: https://t.co/3Db7xAQBDO
♦️Here’s a striking example of how a closure of the Strait of Hormuz can reshape global oil flows—and how Saudi Arabia can rapidly adapt by diverting supplies from its eastern fields to western Red Sea terminals. ♦️A VLCC oil tanker was...
Uncertainty returned to commodity markets on Sunday night and soybeans aren't happy with the latest US-China news. Not only may Trump delay his meeting w/ Xi, but the mention of China eyeing "non-soybean row crops" dampens hopes it will buy an...
Fun fact: Last Monday, the soybean oil/soybean ratio reached its highest level since futures began trading, with the exception of a couple weeks in June 1974.
the Strait of Hormel remains closed and the price of chili has surged to $200 a barrel
At risk of sounding unkind, for the global economic impact, it matters where oil demand destruction happens. The GDP hit — and spillover — isn’t the same if it occurs in a small economy like, say, Bangladesh, than if it happens...
Iran's supreme leader says the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. Tankers are burning near Basra. The market is treating this like a temporary disruption. The IEA is treating it like a structural one. Someone is wrong. https://t.co/VEZoi3Wz44
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
UAE's Fujairah resumes oil loadings after attack, sources say. Oil is still expected to open higher when trading resumes tonight https://t.co/PPrPe2zMLy
It was a big week for commodities in China. On the iran war we had a refined fuel export ban and a request to access commercial reserves. Meanwhile the China, BHP iron ore saga exploded into life again
IEA has provided an update on the emergency oil stock release, with details on timing, regional split, and crude/product split. Asia stocks will be released immediately. Europe / America only at the of March. Still missing is the flow rate, however....
The supply shock move in Energy prices, fertilizer prices, and food prices IS a Rate hike which slows the economy and is disinflationary to goods and services that are not energy and food. A dual mandate central bank doesn't hike...
IEA countries have now confirmed their contributions to our largest ever oil stock release This brings unprecedented additional volumes of oil to the market from 16 March onward. However, opening the Strait of Hormuz is vital for a return to stable...
"This month’s attacks on Iran point to a sixth global energy supply shock, but the rise in crude oil prices to date does not represent a shock of the magnitude seen in earlier episodes. At $100bbl, Brent crude is less...
I don’t know how much clearer I could have been in the latest roundup. 1) the price of oil doubled in a week and the Hormuz closure is 100x works for European and Asian markets. Therefore as long as it...
The WSJ reports: "The U.S. economy is less exposed to oil shocks today than in prior decades." But, today’s economy shows strain in airlines, farms, autos. Airlines face soaring fuel costs. Farmers face higher fertilizer prices. Rising gas prices threaten US autos. https://t.co/bOpYCs0pCD
The @wsj on one of the most sensitive prices across the economic, political and social landscape: “Average regular gasoline prices nationally were around $3.68 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase from before the war started at the...
Last Sunday night, after being hugely complacent, the market was panicking and Brent briefly went to $120. But then Trump said war would be over soon and it fell back to $80. Oil isn't a one way trip here. There's...
India used to import 50% of its oil from Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE (blue). All this oil had to transit the Strait of Hormuz and - recently - this is down to zero. It's this massive hole that's...
So to speak.... “Even the possibility that a hostile power could choke traffic in Hormuz—by far the world’s most vital energy and commodity artery—was considered to be absurd,” McNally told Fortune, largely because it hadn’t happened before. “When I would tell...
COLUMN: While the price of Brent and WTI crudes remain well below their record high, the cost of fuel oil has surged above the 2022 and 2008 peaks. The surge is a big problem for the workhorse of globalisation: the container...
Here it comes. Covering : - US Strike on Iran's Kharg Island - Impact on USOIL & trade idea with targets - Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) isn't moving higher & whats next for it - Stagflation update & its impact - US Indexes update &...
Good Morning from Germany, where petrol prices have reacted much more sharply to the oil shock than in the rest of Europe. Excluding taxes and duties, petrol currently costs about 94 cents per litre at the pump in Germany, compared...
⭕️A large number of LNG carriers were diverted from Europe to Asia. Will China restarts buying US LNG? Map form @Kpler I added the red arrows
China eases ban on BHP iron ore after steel mills rush to buy in amid price rises https://t.co/WaN0cB2ddK
By the way, by giving a waiver for Russian crude on water to be sold freely on the market, Trump single-handedly eliminated the "price cap." The "price cap" was one of the lowest-IQ policy decisions in recent years.
A barrel of oil lost anywhere is a barrel lost everywhere. It’s a global market and acute scarcity in the Middle East/Asia will inevitably spike prices in North America as markets work to incentivize cargoes to fill the hole. US foreign policy...
comex silver vault update Registered: 79M oz (2,457 tons) Daily Change : -2.6 M oz (81 Tons) left the vault on Thursday WTD Change : - 142Tons
Newsom drove one refinery to shut down last year and one that will shut down in another month. Our gas prices were already sky high because of these actual and forecasted closures - it forced us to import gas and...
IEA just released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. That's one-third of their total stockpile. For context, the largest prior release was during the 1973 oil crisis. This is not normal. $WTI https://t.co/pSOwsqWZJ0
Correct. I’ve said since day one that with a disruption of this magnitude, the only thing preventing oil prices from soaring much higher than $100 is a market bet that Trump finds a way to declare mission accomplished very soon.
Not nasty — prescient. Our Battlespace and Barrel Flow report modeled 7- and 30-day Hormuz closure scenarios (among others) in June 2025 because the risk was real and our clients needed to be prepared. No one's enjoying this.
Gasoline Surge Above $3 May Fuel Reversion Toward $2 - The national average gasoline price has jumped above $3 a gallon on the back of the Iran war, which may fuel reversion toward $2 by year-end. My graphic highlights a...
