War Sparks Massive Commodity Surge, Stocks Rise, Volatility Falls
Since the start of the Iran war... Jet Fuel: +80% Sulfur: +68% Heating Oil: +56% WTI Crude Oil: +55% Brent Crude Oil: +52% Diesel: +48% Gasoline: +47% Urea: +47% European Nat Gas: +44% Fertilizer: +23% Coal: +13% Palm Oil: +13% Iron Ore: +8% Wheat: +6% S&P 500: +5% $VIX: -15%
US Diesel Inventories Won’t Hit Zero, Prices Stay High
Sure @NGLFundamentals But his main point is that US inventories will reach zero I don’t see that happening High diesel prices + recession/depression from Iran War shortages ==>rapid drawdown to some baseline =•=>flat inventories, tight market, lower but still high prices
Diesel Prices Surge as Inventories Plummet, CI Turns Negative
You’re directionally right but volumetrically off @HFI_Research Diesel leads—price is already decoupled from comparative inventory When CI turns negative, price spikes Demand destruction will cap how low inventories fall #Diesel #OilMarkets #Energy #Commodities #Inflation https://t.co/Kagb6TSzbm
Brent Futures Up 85% YTD Challenges Price Hype
Lots of scare stories about how oil prices will rise indefinitely. None mention the fact that the front-month Brent future (pink) is up 85% so far this year. If you think prices should rise more, you first need to explain...
China's Q1 Gold Demand Hits Record 362 Tons
China's gold demand in Q1 just hit a RECORD HIGH of 362 tons. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/i4imHfn9jj
Chevron Beats Q1 Estimates Amid Higher Prices, Strong Refining
BIG OIL 1Q EARNINGS: In line with its peers, Chevron reports stronger-than-expected earnings, with higher prices offseting some output losses (in part due to shutdown in the neutral zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia). Interesting to note very strong refinery...
U.S. Adjusts Petroleum Use After 1974 Arab Embargo
U.S. PETROLEUM supply and consumption and changes in response to the Arab oil embargo in the first quarter of 1974 (estimates taken from the report on Emergency Preparedness for Interruption of Petroleum Imports into the United States published by the...
July Brent Front-Month Sets Path to Wartime High
BRENT’s futures contract for July has replaced June as the front-month, temporarily reducing headline oil prices, but the trend remains upward as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes oil supplies to tighten. In a strongly backwardated market,...
West Braces for Next Wave of Oil Rationing
Headed into month three of the oil crisis, the energy rationing that hit Asia and Africa is headed West. JPMorgan's commodity desk put out an internal memo recently that made the rounds. The Strait of Hormuz closure removed 13.7 million barrels...
EU Steel Demand Threatened by Early CBAM Import Advantage
EU steel demand faces CBAM timing risk as downstream imports may gain cost advantage before 2028. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/05/eu-steel-demand-faces-cbam-risk-before.html
U.S. Crude Exports Poised to Fill Gulf Blockade Gap
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 30, 2026) US crude exports may be stepping up to fill the supply void left by Arabian Gulf blockades. Can American producers realistically bridge that gap? https://t.co/QiqCnvCaRc
Price Dip Driven by Trader Positioning, Not Fundamentals
An ~$8 drop with no fundamental catalyst is almost certainly positioning and profit-taking @ALikhodedov The world didn't change overnight The price fell because traders hit "sell" The expiry may not be the only reason but the timing suggests that's a major factor. #OilMarkets...
Lithium Prices Surge, Prompting Miner DSO Rush
We're now entering that phase of the lithium summer cycle where DSO makes its return. Resurgent lithium price sets miners scrambling to make lucrative DSO sales https://t.co/hnnHi7ZDud
US Commercial Petroleum Inventories Drop Amid Crude Shortage
Sprucing up some EIA charts. Latest on weekly stocks. The total US commercial petroleum inventories **ex-NGLs** is a particularly important adjustment in the current crude-starved environment. https://t.co/gAJ30n96JT
U.S. Turns Net Crude Exporter Amid Overseas Surge
The surge in US crude oil overseas sales means the country was last week a net exporter of crude. (In the past, the US exported more crude oil *AND* refined products — combined — than it imported. But now it's an...
Chicago Faces Diesel Shortage, Could Spread Nationwide
Chicago is way short on diesel. Hopefully not coming to a region near you. cc @JacobShap @Rory_Johnston
California Gas Tops $6, 40% Above National Average
Gas prices in California have moved up above $6.00/gallon, 40% higher than the US national average ($4.30/gallon). https://t.co/pB0UfwGqPX
Oil Price Shock Ripples Through Inflation, Rates, Stock Valuations
The Iran-Hormuz story is not "just geopolitics" Here is the money chain Supply threat pushes crude up higher crude feeds inflation expectations higher inflation pressure keeps rates sticky sticky rates compress growth-stock multiples So even if your portfolio has zero oil names...you still feel this through...
UNG Faces $10 Support As
$UNG Daily. When upside breakouts continually fail for natural gas, we might as well see if downside support holds. Here, $10 looks like last stand for natty ETF. Held nicely back in January https://t.co/fzMTGrS8ZG
Singapore's Gold Imports From Dubai Hit Record Amid War
singapore is pulling in dubai gold as middle east war drags on. Imports of gold into Singapore from Dubai hit a record last month
Brent Hits Four-Year High, Just as Predicted
Brent crude prices just HIT A FOUR-YEAR HIGH. I'M NOT SURPRISED. As I predicted on @davidlin_TV on March 29th, crude oil prices would SPIKE by the end of APRIL. IT’S APRIL 30th, and PRICES HAVE SPIKED. https://t.co/7Tvnl0ojr1
Global Grain Supplies Tightening, Prices Set to Surge
Traders: I am a trader primarily but also send periodic special reports to members of a private community. Here is a report I issued earlier in the week on grain markets https://t.co/Ghz72lxQY3
Complex Reality Beats Simplistic Gas Price Narratives
Part of why I love @sumitroy2 is he never takes simple explanations at face value: witness: 2 minute deep dive on the "hurr hurr califorinia gas prices" trope. The real world is complex. Don't let billionaires and politicians...
Gold vs Fed: Facts Over Feelings
Talking about gold and the Fed with @sonusvarghese on our latest Facts vs Feelings. 🪙 🥇 https://t.co/0u5OIKvnbL
Ethanol Beats Gasoline by 23% After Energy Adjustment
⛽️Ethanol is much cheaper than gasoline. Even after adjusting for its lower energy content, it was 23% cheaper than gasoline as of Wednesday, the biggest gap in data back to 2007. That helps explain why demand has held up, though summer driving...
92.5M Barrel SPR Swap Part of Existing 172M Deal
On the 92.5 million barrels SPR exchange, do NOTE this a tranche that's part of the **already announced** 172 million barrels exchange (it was announced March 12). This is NOT an additional release.
Demand Destruction Caps U.S. Diesel Deficit, Prices Lead
Ukraine Shock: U.S. diesel inventories led, prices followed Today: Prices lead—Demand destruction likely caps inventory deficits #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/FA6tDuU7W2
Oil Prices Surge Past $120, Triggering Historic Energy Crisis
Brent crude oil has crossed $120/barrel for the first time since June 2022. The IEA is calling this the “biggest energy security threat in history.” We’re on track for the biggest oil crisis in decades.
Futures
Futures markets suggest that trouble in the Middle East -- and higher energy prices -- will still be with us during the U.S. midterm elections in November. https://t.co/sX0oV15qiq
Molybdenum Prices Surge Past $28, $MOLY Near $3B Valuation
Molybdenum prices keep rising. Now firmly above US$28 lb/Mo. That's roughly $ 3bn for $MOLY Expect more announcement re financing and off-take agreement over the quarters. $150m market cap.
Japan Confident of Crude Oil Supply Through Year‑end
Japanese top officials say that "even conservatively, we expect to ensure supply [of crude oil] through the end of the year."
June Brent Expires, July Becomes New Prompt Price
Seeing some confusion on the feed re: Brent prices/volatility and today's expiry. Today is the last day of trading for Brent's June contract (white), and tomorrow the July contract (blue) becomes the "prompt" price most of us see when we search...
Record Beef Prices Trigger Shift to Other Meats
The biggest food price problem has nothing to do with the US-Iran war. Beef prices are rising higher, today setting a new all-time high above $2.55 per lb. The rise in beef is prompting demand switch to other meat forms, putting...
U.S. Export Sales Meet Expectations; Corn, Beans, Wheat Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. export sales met trade expectations. Corn stayed above average for the time of year, led by Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela & unknown. China led in net bean sales (though most were switched from unknown), Egypt was 2nd. Old-crop...
Economist's Forecast Proven: Hormuz Strait Still Closed
The Economist cover is right this time [if Hormuz remains closed, which is still is] https://t.co/s9dyaHjaCU
Iran Blockade Prediction Matches Current Brent Surge; Little Upside Left
In this post from back in March, I calculated that an Iran blockade would cause Brent to rise 80% from pre-war levels. That's exactly where we are now based on the July Brent future. The case for oil prices to...
Cascading Agrifood Shocks Demand Predictive Modeling for Resilience
Agrifood crises aren’t linear. Risks cascade over time. Example: @FAO's Hormuz analysis shows how energy shocks ripple through fertilizer, productivity and food security. Modeling can predict crises and identify policy combinations that boost resilience. https://t.co/xeHzPqdSuB
China Boosts May Fuel Exports, Still Below Last‑year Average
China is allowing more exports of jet fuel, diesel and gasoline in May. Were reporting about 500,000 tons. A big improvement but well off the monthly average last year
July Oil Futures Hit $108, Pricing Gulf Shortfall
The June Brent future (black) expires today, so a better gauge for oil prices is the July future (pink) that is $108 and up 80% since the start of the year. By any stretch of the imagination, this fully prices...
Brent Crude Poised for Peak After Slingshot Reversal
Slingshot reversal in Brent Crude and The Economist telling us oil is too low. Could be the top in crude. https://t.co/uw1b5IxUUm
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.30, Adding $70 Monthly
Oof. The US national gas average just hit $4.30, according to AAA. That's the highest since July 2022. Gas prices have shot up $1.40 since the war in Iran began. That's adding ~$70 extra a month to household costs. #gas #inflation...
Economist Predicts Oil Still Undervalued, Prices Set to Rise
Oh dear, the curse of The Economist's oil cover: "... Why oil prices are not yet high enough..." You know what that means, don't you? https://t.co/fWwZunxd0P
Nov Soybeans Reach Record High, Rare April Spike
📈Nov CBOT soybeans inked a new yearly high of $11.78 per bushel in overnight trade on Thursday, replacing the old high from March 12. They have since eased. Setting annual highs in April is rare for new-crop soybeans. May is a...
Brent Futures Hold Tight Within $13 Range, No News
The (expiring) front-month Brent oil contract has traded today within a ~$13 range in absolutely no-news.
Copper’s Gains Mirror S&P, Yet Lag Behind Trends
Highly Stock-Market Dependent Copper May Be a Guide Copper's increasing dependency for stability on a rising US stock market may underscore elevated risks across assets. My macroeconomic scorecard shows both copper and the S&P 500 up about 5% year to date...
Energy Drives 2026 Commodity Rally, Metals Lag Behind
Energy Shifts Commodity Sectors - 2026 Performance Energy is pulling other commodity sectors higher in 2026 -- the key question is how far and for how long. Sector performance has reversed from 2025, with energy leading and precious metals lagging. Full report...
Oil Prices Swing $15 in 48 Hours, Threatening Economy
Crazy price volatility in the oil market: In less than 48 hours, Brent crude has swung from a local low of $111 to a high of $126 and is currently trading at around $116 (Bloomberg chart below). This level of instability is...
Market Bets on 2026‑27 Lithium Prices, Ignores LT Re‑rating
From a private discussion yesterday in the eucalyptus tree Market seems to believe in 2026/27 lithium prices but not re-rating “LT pricing” yet Plus the usual Aussie premium for assets in the homeland https://t.co/7gAh4ZnV41
Oil Prices Set to Rise Amid Strait Uncertainty
My comments to CNN as Brent climbed to $125 Thursday afternoon in Asia: Oil prices have “nowhere to go but up,” until the permanent reopening of the strait comes into view, said Vandana Hari, founder of energy market analysis firm Vanda...
Iran Tensions Push Oil Above $110, Market Volatility Spikes
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── U.S. oil prices surged above $110 per barrel amid potential military action against Iran. Iran maintains hardline stance on Strait of Hormuz control, increasing risk of extended blockade and oil supply disruptions. US Navy intercepted the 42nd...