US Refining Tightness Fuels 2026 Margin Surge
US refining squeeze = opportunity: Post-2020 COVID closures + no major new builds since 1976 = tight capacity. Utilization ~90%, strong crack spreads boosting margins. Refiners like $VLO, $MPC, $PSX thriving in 2026.
Diversified Energy Mix Calms Europe's 2026 Power Market
COLUMN: Ruinously high electricity bills became the defining image of Europe's energy crisis in 2022. So what's different this time? Thanks to nuclear, hydropower, solar, and better grids, European lectricity markets are calmer in 2026. @Opinion https://t.co/Ve1F7kIrNc
DiamondBack Ramps up Output; Shale Reacts to $80 Oil
DiamondBack Energy, one of the top US shale companies, says it will bring "incremental barrels to the market inmediately." US shale can not offset the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the idea that companies wouldn't react to >$80...
Urals Crude Doubles, Sanction Exemptions Reveal Strategic Desperation
Russian Urals crude is being sold at around $110 per barrel — more than double its price before the attack on Iran. Exempting Russian crude from US sanctions is either a deliberate strategic move (part of the plan) or a clear...
US Oil Exports Hit Historic Record Levels
⚠️America has NEVER exported more oil in history: Total US crude oil and petroleum product exports surged to a RECORD 14,179 thousand barrels per day last week. US crude exports alone surged above 6 million barrels per day👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-s-p-500-gained-for-the-5th-straight-week-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-18-2026
Strait of Hormuz Turmoil Sends Shockwaves Through Oil Markets
Spoke with CBC's Power and Politics this evening about the chaotic past 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz and what it all means for oil markets. https://t.co/WgW8feXlpU
Philippines Inflation Spikes to 7.2%, Widening Asian Divergence
The Philippines April inflation rose sharply to 7.2%YoY on rice and fuel price hikes. We had predicted that this would be the most vulnerable country in Asia due to its deficits of energy and food. We expect further hikes for...
Oil Executives Warn of Emerging Western Physical Shortages
Oil Execs: 'We are starting to see physical shortages emerge in the west' Market: https://t.co/s25BclzDwg
Natural Gas Cheap Now, Demand Surge Signals Enduring Shift
Natural gas prices are at one of their cheapest levels in history relative to oil prices. Historically, those dislocations don’t persist when demand is accelerating. And right now, the demand side story for natural gas is quietly becoming one of the strongest...
Imminent Event Should Spark After‑Hours Oil Volatility
If this is imminent, you’d expect to see more movement in oil in after hours trading…
High Volatility Renders Short-Term
4 hour across gasoline, $CL_F , brent and the 2 year yield. Again most either bought late, faded early or just are using chart time frames that won't help much when vol is this high for this long. https://t.co/Ie8cBLcCWt
Oil Futures Hit New Highs, Expect $90+ Prices
What does the oil market think? Both the July (orange) and December (blue) Brent Crude Oil Futures Contracts are at new highs. The December contract is now signaling that the market expects crude oil to be above $90 for the next seven...
Hormuz Blockade Accelerates Critical Mineral Demand Surge
🚨 Strait of Hormuz Blockade = Potential Boom for Critical Minerals Iran's closure has slashed ~20% of global oil & LNG flows. Governments are accelerating the shift to renewables + EVs faster than planned.Demand was already projected to surge…the crisis...
USDA, DOJ Crack Down on Meatpackers, Prices Fall
USDA and DOJ hold a presser to declare they are holding meatpackers accountable. They brought down both live cattle and feeder prices.
Data Centers Spike Northeast Carbon Prices Above California
Data centers are driving a surge in carbon prices in the US Northeast, helping push CO2 costs in the region past California and raising the prospect of higher energy prices for consumers. https://t.co/sNPWSP51NO
Corn Rallies as Ag Commodities Chase Energy Price Levels
There goes corn today. Another strong move in agricultural commodities as they continue catching up to energy prices. https://t.co/9xrvHbXgUm https://t.co/v2CK1VmaKr
Iran's War Funding Erodes as Oil Blockade Delays
Yes, energy prices will continue to rise. But if Iran isn't able to get oil to customers then it's ability to wage war is being drained with every day and every drone launched. The blockade should have been in place in...
Oil Markets Tumble Early with Unexpected TACO Move
gee, I didn't think the TACOing in the oil markets down would happen this early in the trading day
Gold Slides Below Weekly Low, Eyes 200‑Day MA
$Gold has broken last week's low. As I posted previously, the minimal target remains the 200 day MA that is currently at 4283. If it closes below the 200 DMA we'll see a retest of the March low at 4100....
Brent Hits $114 Amid US‑Iran Tensions, Inflation Looming
https://t.co/Tigb4k2zAJ Brent crude at $114 now and no end to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Can’t wait for the next inflation readings….And economic data,
Brent Oil Volatility Spikes with Every War Headline
July Brent Crude Oil gyrations over the last 24 hours on every War headline. https://t.co/NguXR9zWen
Middle East Incidents Lift Oil to $104/$113
After reports from UAE of intercepted missiles from Iran, a fire in Fujairah and a cargo ship with an as-yet unexplained engine fire , US WTI and UK Brent oil prices up near $104 and $113 respectively: https://t.co/zuJPK9uWkU
US Consumer Resilience Overestimated Amid Rising Energy, Services Costs
"Increase in the retail prices of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and naphtha between February 27 and April 27: it is “somewhat counterintuitive” that the US is now experiencing some of the largest price increases globally, and might indicate that it...
Bassett Miscalculates: US Shale Peaked, Oversupply Looms
Bassett’s math doesn’t add up on several fronts: U.S. shale oil production has peaked for now, the increase in U.S. crude deliveries is the result of large withdrawals from the U.S. SPR, and the announced increase in the OPEC+ group...
Longer Ship Routes Raise Oil Prices
Oil supply is not just barrels. It’s TON MILES If crude has to move from farther away because VLCCs avoid the Persian Gulf, the same barrel uses more ship-time. That means higher oil & product prices #Oil #Shipping #Energy #OOTT #Tankers #Hormuz
Tariffs, War, and Anger Spark Massive Aluminum Self‑Sabotage
Sky-high aluminum tariffs + a war that knocks out Middle Eastern aluminum supplies + pissing off one of the world's largest aluminum suppliers (and your nextdoor neighbor) = inarguably one of the biggest industrial own-goals in recent memory https://t.co/dgPngPBWuE
Crude Jumps on Unconfirmed Iranian Attack, Shipping Reports Swirl
gm, crude popped this morning on reports that Iran hit a US warship (CENTCOM has since denied) before pulling back Mixed reports of additional Iranian attacks on commercial shipping over past 24 hours, while Trump claims this AM 2 US-flagged ships...
Gas Price Forecast Jumps to $5.40, up $1
Top tick in gas prices this year? $5.40 per @Kalshi ... that's up a buck from the current level https://t.co/6iN7z5X7oB https://t.co/tl2oanX6LG
Real Gas Prices Match 30-Year Average After Adjustments
After adjusting for wages and fuel efficiency, gas prices are basically at the 30-year average @dualityresearch https://t.co/Ve6pijIEJ4 https://t.co/oYQQ7QtykW
Soybean Net-Longs Triple Corn, Heightening Liquidation Risk
Following the Money, Soybeans Lead Risk vs. Reward Speculator net-longs in soybeans dwarf those in corn and wheat, indicating an epicenter for position liquidation risks in grains. The dollar value of hedge fund net-longs in soybean complex futures is about 3x...
Wheat Futures Hit 2‑Year High on Record Speculator Net‑Long
Bouncing Wheat, Long Specs and Reversion Risks The benchmark wheat future has risen to its highest price in about two years on the back of grain speculators being the most net-long in four years -- and it's the time of year...
Crude Spikes Rare; only 1973 Embargo Sustained Rise
Surges in Crude Typically Their Own Worst Enemy The only period in our database since 1861 that crude oil went up sharply and stayed up was during the first Arab oil embargo in 1973-74, when WTI jumped to about $10 a...
Fuel Prices Rise May 5: Petrol +R3.27, Diesel +R
SABC News has just reported; “that fuel prices will increase this Wednesday, the of 5th May. The Petrol price will go up by R3.27 per litre and diesel by R6.19 per litre.
US Escort Plan Aims to Cap Oil Price Spikes
The real intent of the U.S. escort plan is to limit the upside tail risk on oil prices, says @anasalhajji Signaling that some ships will move reduces the worst-cases scenario probability Not reopening Hormuz. Not restoring flows. Just trying to keep prices from...
Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Trade Shifts and Fertilizer Push
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 65 days. At around 90 days, the shock turns global. Structural adjustments are on the way: trade routes are shifting, stockpiling is rising, and nations are boosting efforts to produce fertilizer domestically....
LNG Exports Hit Two‑year Low as Hormuz Shuts
Global LNG exports continue to contract due to the Hormuz closure 🚢 ⚠️ Shipments declined to about 33 million tons, the lowest level since May 2024, according to ship-tracking data (Still, the lost volumes were partially replaced with new output from...
Brent Holds Above $108 as US Clears StraitBrent Holds Above $108 as US Clears Strait
"Brent was little changed above $108 a barrel, after falling as much as 2.4% at the open, while West Texas Intermediate was near $102. Starting from Monday, the US move was meant to enable vessels that have been stranded by...
Iran Weaponizes Hormuz to Disrupt Oil, Raise Prices
Tanker in Strait of Hormuz hit by "unknown projectiles" Doesn't matter if it happened or not This is IRGC's MO & strategy You don’t shut Hormuz. You make it uninsurable. Flows slow. Prices rise. Control achieved. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #IranWar #EnergyIsTheEconomy #Macro
TIPS‑Bond Spread Signals Inflation, Boosting Oil Prices
TIPS relative to bonds are suggesting a higher inflationary world, which it turns out means higher oil. https://t.co/7lvC0M2pIk
Rising Diesel Costs Cripple Owner‑Operators and SME Supply Chains
This diesel price hits trucking across market sectors. Owner operators and SME supply chains will take the biggest hit. And it is not over.
Brent Oil Holds Near Support, Bullish EMA Trend Persists
#BrentOil Comp small Down Candle, arguably a doji and Sideways. Resistance $114.7, $124.5, $133.1. Support $100, $86.1. RSI 62 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Up Candle on Weekly. Small Up Candle on monthly but well off the Low.
Record Net Long in U.S. Grains, Corn Share Diverges
📈Funds ended April with a record net long for the date across U.S. grains & oilseeds, edging past 2021 and 2022. However, corn’s share looks different this time. I cover this, plus updated U.S. soybean crush pace and more, in my...
Chevron CEO Predicts Persistent High Oil Prices Post‑Hormuz Reopening
Ouch. Chevron boss says high oil prices are not going away when the Strait of Hormuz opens up.
Emerging Markets Will Bear Shortages; West Pays Higher Prices
I am tired of hearing alarmism in the West about food and energy shortages. The reality, while sad, is that emerging market countries will bear the vast majority of these shortages. The West will simply pay higher prices to redirect supply away...
UAE’s OPEC Exit Threatens Oil Price Collapse, Recession
Think oil prices are too high? Wait til they completely collapse and send us into an oil-based recession. The UAE’s exit from OPEC is very bad news https://t.co/TqXUsn8Djw
U.S. Natural Gas Growth Peaks in April, Then Falls
U.S. natural gas growth is expected to peak in April It is projected to decline through 2026 and beyond #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/LV8XoIfv25
Gas Hits $4.43, Near $5 Trigger for Republicans
According to AAA, the national average cost of a gallon of gas has climbed to $4.43, marking a new 4-year high. WHEN THE AVERAGE PRICE HITS $5/gallon, TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICANS WILL BE TOAST. https://t.co/JEq9VymiI7
Domestic Shale Keeps US Gas Cheap; Europe Pays Import Premium
The Shale Revolution gave US producers access to abundant domestic natural gas, which is why America can maintain low natural gas prices even amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Europe's natural gas prices, by contrast, are suffering because Europe banned fracking and...
Foreign Buyers Paying Premium Keeps U.S. Stock Draws Steep
Of course, there is no additional oil, beyond the SPR release—just the rest of the world still willing to pay more than Americans for American barrels, at least for now. So long as that’s true, more steep stock draws cometh. https://t.co/BvLo10lL0S
China May Begin Food Decoupling, FT Data Shows
Is China about to decouple on food? Riffing on a piece in the FT in the latest chartbook this morning. https://t.co/a0lMMdOOgC https://t.co/fqNWpHCXJi