Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Ok, so here is the debate: Bull: higher oil price will raise inflation and reduce the LEVEL of disposable income/profits. But even if oil prices stay high, impact on GROWTH eventually wears off. Its a soft patch. And since we know what caused it, as long as the conflict has ended, markets can look through the economic fallout. Like a natural disaster. Economists can warn about "scarring risks" etc, but nobody is going to care. Bear: With the physical destruction to energy supplies set to continue for months, oil price could keep grinding higher (its demand vs supply, not just risk premia). Even if the initial hit to income/profits is a one-off, the corporate response could make the situation worse - if they start cutting employment. Then a recessionary dynamic kicks in. And central banks could make the situation worse, particularly if they start to panic about their "credibility".
I sat down with @GoldSwitzerland partner Matthew Piepenburg, a former hedge fund trader who made millions during the dot-com bubble at 28, and author of "Rigged to Fail." Gold just crashed 25%. He says buy more. "Gold is not rising to an...
If usa friendly regime takes control of strait of Hormuz it will be very bullish., https://t.co/bpWTMUPjFa
When a regulator tells you not to worry, read the footnote. The Energy Commission confirmed higher electricity tariffs are coming, and in the same breath, noted that more than 8 out of 10 household users will not be affected — for...
CHARTS OF THE DAY: What's the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war for Europe (and thus the ECB and BoE)? Sure, the price of oil and refined products has risen. But paralells between the curent shock and the 2022 energy...
📊 GOLD – D1 Market Outlook 🪙 🔎 On the Daily timeframe, a Demand Zone (Rally–Base–Rally) has formed 📈 and above we have a Supply Zone (Drop–Base–Drop) acting as resistance. 📉 ⚡ The market may take a pullback toward the demand zone before...
🇵🇰Pakistan LPG price surge intensifies hardship for citizens 🇧🇩A deepening shortage of LPG now grips Bangladesh’s domestic market. 🇰🇭Cambodia Races to Avert Fuel Crunch as Global LPG and Diesel Shortages Bite https://t.co/6D1Hdd0QGy
For decades, the price at the Malaysian petrol pump has been a rare constant in an ever-changing global economy. But the familiar green nozzle is about to represent a significant shift in the household ledger.
Iran is Trump's Waterloo He won’t be able to spin this as a “win,” says @RanaForoohar Oil shock + AI unwind + credit crack = a fast, market-led 20-30% correction. The K-economy masks the impact on most Americans #OilMarkets #AI #Credit #Recession
Trump has unleashed a positive feedback loop that’s going to have significant negative impacts: Reduced fertilizer supply = higher cost, farmers planting less, additional crop failure = lower crop supply = higher food prices + inflation, which will drive up...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Since the US-Israeli war on Iran started, India’s oil imports from Russia have nearly doubled. Good news. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN. https://t.co/XzP5Xxh83g
Facor’s ferro-chrome auction drew sharply higher bids as tight Indian spot supply pushed prices above base levels. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/indian-ferro-chrome-auction-prices-rise.html
Good morning China 🇨🇳 At open on Wednesday, 4/1 SGE #Silver traded at RMB18957.0/kg ($85.484/Troy oz) Spot #Silver is $75.189/Troy oz SGE premium at 13.7% over spot
Oil from the Gulf that has been in transit to its destinations is about to dry up. Then, there will be a crunch. Paul Krugman employs standard econ arithmetic to end up with a price range of $99/BBL to 372/BBL, depending...
POLL: Has the June WTI crude oil futures contract peaked? ($104 on March 9th, $99 last night, $94 currently)
Even if oil flows recover, refineries are the real squeeze, says Macquarie's Vikas Dwivedi Refinery run cuts have tightened product supply. It will take 4-6 weeks to recover after Hormuz opens to full transit. And there's uncertainty about refinery damage.
JUST IN: Brent crude oil futures surged 60% in March, delivering the biggest monthly gain ever.
BofA: Risk assets rallied today on the potential resolution of the Iran war. President Trump stated that the US “won’t be there” to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz Oil prices are less enthusiastic https://t.co/qqPBVmhvPG
Higher LNG prices also putting LNG terminals at risk. There's upside and downside here. To the extent that these were driving coal -> gas switching, more downside than up. But if coal is also constrained, would boost renewables.
If Hormuz remains close the price of oil and refined products could rise to $200, $250, $300 per barrel or any number.
Prices at the pump? UK running out of fuel? What should the government and the public do in the face of the US-Israel/Iran energy crisis? https://t.co/dVMIfX1kI1 via @Channel4News with @mattfrei
I can’t believe the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for four weeks. It seems like so much longer than that. Scarcely do I remember the last time petrochemicals, urea, helium and other fundamental components could safely transit to key...
With the Hormuz Strait all but closed, the crude oil futures curve is back to the backwardation levels of the first few days of the conflict. The front contract is about $23 higher than the 9th contract, indicating that the...
Brent crude prompt futures price, Iran-War-to-date. Up just shy of $50 per barrel over the past month. https://t.co/SERzQ38Bos
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways. Needs Breakout $112.1. Support $100, $91.8, $84. RSI 71.5 Overbought but can go higher. Top Bollinger Band $111.6. Midpoint Line $102.5. Bottom Band $93.6.
With only one ship passing through the Strait last week, the oil curve has remained heavily backwardated. Looking at the correlations below, we see that gold and bonds have been positively correlated (with both under pressure), and Bitcoin and the...
China can still buy Iranian oil, but every barrel now comes with higher military risk, higher shipping costs, and the threat of sanctions or interdiction. What was once a quiet $8 to $12 discount trade is now a fragile, contested...
The EU will consider reopening a set energy measures used after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the bloc seeks to contain a fresh price shock tied to the Iran war https://t.co/pGEqjvd4Uf via @johnainger https://t.co/oxM0l6weH8
Q1 lesson: Cuts → Hikes. Stable oil → $112. Safe → Risky. Narratives flip faster than positioning. If you're still running January's thesis in Q2, you're not wrong in theory. You're just wrong in the market that actually exists. --- https://t.co/c8qhOLV3nI
China has exported cargoes of diesel and other fuels to energy-starved countries across Southeast Asia over the weekend, in what appears to be a signal of support despite export curbs imposed earlier this month https://t.co/Ho2QuntmBc
🌽Remarkable to compare expectations and outcomes for U.S. corn acres, March 2025 versus March 2026. Almost a straight copy+paste in all columns..... https://t.co/HT5yWSIhC3
LNG production in Qatar, normally ~80 mm tonnes, has been effectively OFFLINE since March 2. The new Golden Pass LNG export terminal in the U.S. will add only 18mm tonnes at full capacity. NEW SUPPLY CAN’T OFFSET WAR-DRIVEN LOSSES. https://t.co/tVmip8DsaM
A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...
U.S. gas market insulated from war in the Middle East U.S. gas inventories are on course to finish the winter close to the average for the time of year, which has sent futures prices back below $3 per million British thermal...
Gas prices in north Aurora, CO along Tower Rd have relaxed to $3.61-3.64 after hitting $3.97 last week.
Extremely Low Positioning: Both #COMEX and #SHFE #silver open interest are currently trading at the very bottom of their historical ranges
Gold rallies on rumors of a potential off-ramp in a war. Markets never cease to surprise me…🤣🤣
$CL WTI pre-market: $101.84. $BNO Brent: $108. Iran demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a negotiating position. It's a non-starter — and everyone knows it. The war premium is permanent until proven otherwise. --- https://t.co/DwGuXTrsgJ
Even more interesting. This was the 7th consecutive year that the market underestimated second quarter implied usage for corn. Hmmmmm.
Immediate report reaction: The acres weren't quite as expected, w/ most analysis pointing to lower corn acres. BUT has anything changed since USDA's survey, and by how much? This will be debated for the next 3 months, but these are...
U.S. cotton plantings came in larger than expected and above 2025's area. All small grain plantings came in below expectations. https://t.co/QomfLCsn7M
U.S. wheat plantings come in lower than analysts expected across all categories. 2026 all wheat acres are set to hit an all-time low in records back to 1919. Spring wheat acres are seen at a 56-year low. https://t.co/EX4kMnksdH
Now let the debates begin whether we will actually plant over 95 million acres of corn with the change in input prices due to the Iran War
U.S. March 1 corn and wheat stocks come in below trade expectations, soybeans come in above. https://t.co/99UWcvMgT6
USDA will release its first WASDE balance sheets for the 2026-27 marketing year May 12. It typically uses trend yields from its February Outlook Forum, and Planted Acres from its March planting intentions survey. As such, today's numbers should help...
There's a high likelihood of surprises from USDA today, and the acreage numbers will likely change by the June survey. But at least it will provide a baseline for the debate that will continue until January. #oatt
Now we start getting the monthly average OPEC production numbers. And boy, oh boy, are they UGLY. Reminder: this is the *average* production decline m/m, the exit loss is even larger and that's where we'll land in the April data if this...
Australia (which has declared a national fuel supply disruption) is deeper in to its jet fuel crisis 🚨 - For now, emergency supply is being routed from l US through the Panama Canal to Melbourne, Perth - but the route *cannot*...
🇮🇩Indonesia will raise the blending rate for palm-based biodiesel to 50% (B50) from the current B40 on July 1, despite having scrapped this plan two months ago due to supply concerns. But war risks are now at the forefront. Indonesia is...
Weekly chart of Gold trying to lead out of the hole after suffering its largest drawdown since 2022. A move back over 430 in $GLD ETF should bring more confidence back to the bull side. (long) https://t.co/awUJXQ86tT
