BIMCO Warns Project Freedom Pause Spikes Hormuz Risk
BIMCO Warns Abrupt ‘Project Freedom’ Pause Complicates Hormuz Risk Calculus. Oil and other products that come thru the Strait. Can this go on until supply shortage meets demand destruction? https://t.co/R2ZJUtaZxX
OpenSquareCap’s Q1 Letter Maps Post‑War Energy Market Outlook
Q1 letter from @OpenSquareCap is the best breakdown of Iran war energy implications I've read. The granularity of the supply chain analysis and alt data interpretation is just something else. Whatever the outcome of the conflict, this letter maps out where energy...
Gas Surge Reinforces K‑Shape: Rich Forget, Poor Relive 2022
Required reading from @talmonsmith on the K-Shaped consequences of the latest surge in gas prices. While those at the top have long forgotten 2022, for those at the bottom, it's deja vu all over again.
Ethanol Production Slows, Stocks Hit Record Levels
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. ethanol production was relatively muted for a third straight week, though still in line with seasonal trends. Despite lighter output, ethanol stocks reached a May 1 record, surpassing pandemic-elevated 2020 levels. Bit of a slip in demand. https://t.co/rGJ2JTZhLk
Silver Poised Above 20‑day MA, Eyeing $81.35
$Silver - If nothing dramatic happens by the close it will close above the 20 day MA and invalidate further downside(at least in the short term). The next upside target is the 1st monthly resistance at 81.35 which coincides with...
US Refiners Ramp up Jet Fuel to Meet Shortage
CHART OF THE DAY: US refiners are going gangbusters trying to solve the global jet-fuel shortage (and to cash in record high margins). The chart shows seasonal jet-fuel output from 2000-to-date (2026 is top line in blue). The bottom outliers are...
24/7 Solar Beats Coal and Gas Costs Globally
24/7 solar+storage is already here: China $30/MWh, Brazil $65, Oman $69. By 2030, India, South Africa, and Spain will all be near $50 - all way cheaper than new coal ($70 to $85/MWh) and new gas ($100+/MWh) The Fire Age is...
US Crude Exports Plunge 1.7 MMbpd, Volatility Persists
EIA weekly data showing a sharp 1.7 MMbpd pullback in crude exports for the week (to still very high levels). That's a ~12 MMbbl weekly swing in the call on US stocks. ⚠️ Export data is especially volatile. https://t.co/pPxWDqXQ4w
Iran's Sole Leverage: Oil Price Spikes, Trump Counters
Thanks to @HolmanJenkins from the @WSJ for including me in this piece. Iran's only weapon in this standoff is to spike oil prices. The Trump administration has done a good job neutralizing this by periodically reminding markets oil prices can...
China's Domestic Coal Shields It From Energy Price Shocks
Because of its heavy reliance on domestically-mined coal, China is far less vulnerable to global energy price shocks than the EU. This and more featured in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/XIXIgRqQmP
US Gasoline Imports Hit Record Lows, Watch Weekly Data
In addition to inventories and booming exports, be sure to keep an eye on weekly import estimates in today's EIA weekly data release. Overall US petroleum imports have been running pretty low, and have been especially low for gasoline. https://t.co/qoDnrbjwLO
Oil Prices Must Drop Before 10:30 Am EIA Draw
They forgot “need to get oil prices down before 10:30am when the EIA announces another 20 million bbl draw
Silver Hits Six‑year Low with Weakest 40‑day Decline.
silver bullion had it's weakest 40-day % change in 6-years, cooling off after the strong rally into Jan '26... rally time? https://t.co/1Uq4DeIlHO
Oil Eyes Recovery Before Market Opens in 30 Minutes
Market opens in less than 30 minutes…can oil claw back the losses from the 5am drop?
EIA Weekly Data Release Sparks Unprecedented Calendar Block
Can't remember the last time I was this excited for a EIA weekly data release. Legit blocked my calendar. https://t.co/CrokkiCkKd
Gold's Weakest 40‑Day Move Sparks Dip Buyers
gold bullion with its weakest rate of change in the past 40-days (-11.1%) over the last 4-years... who's buying the dip? https://t.co/v3wUBnFBft
Beef Prices Stay High for RBI Until 2027
Beef costs are not expected to ease until "closer to 2027," per Burger King owner RBI. BK's beef costs rose 20% last year. $QSR
Nationwide Gas Prices Surpass $4, Avg $4.50
Gas prices now are above $4 per gallon in all 50 states, with the average topping $4.50 https://t.co/ctzY2rZFdb
US‑Iran Deal Hype Fades as Brent Slides Below $100
Be Careful: Don’t Fall for the US-Iran Deal Hype — Brent Drops Below $100 https://t.co/1xmqJkWtPm
Gold Climbs 3% on War Hopes and Bull Market Momentum
Gold up 3% on hopes of an end to the war. 🤔 Or gold up 3% as it is still in a secular bull market (and working off the January blow off top) and those tend to go higher....
Potential Iran Deal Pushes Oil Lower, Energy Stocks Slide
🚨 Oil & Energy Selloff 🚨 Energy names getting hit hard this morning as geopolitics shift fast 👀 🛢️ Oil & Energy Stocks: -8.05% Axios reporting the US and Iran are nearing a 14-point framework to end the conflict — triggering a potential...
Brent Peaks, Then Drops $30 Within a Week
Brent topped on the exact day of this cover, and is down $30 in less than a week. https://t.co/3lAlU2QZRA
Cal‑Maine Poised for Upside as Egg Prices Dip
Egg prices are in a down-cycle, but market leader Cal-Maine (CALM) might be a buy. Strong balance sheet, low costs, and value-added eggs could fuel the next up-cycle. 💰🥚 EggStocks
Oil Spike Boosts Soybean Oil, May Pull Crude to $60
Crude Toward $60? Soybean Oil as a Substitute The tendency for crude-oil price surges to be their own worst enemy may be emphasized by the rise of biofuels. Well supplied soybeans will gain demand due to the WTI spike above $100...
US and Brent Crude Prices Plunge Over 10%
JUST IN: US crude oil price has dropped by over 12%, and Brent crude is down over 10%.
UAE's OPEC Exit Increases Volatility, Needs US Action
In my latest @nytimes oped, I argue UAE exit from OPEC may not be the win Trump thinks it is. A weaker OPEC could mean more volatility, which is economically costly. The US should take steps to cushion shocks &...
Weak OPEC Fuels More Frequent Global Boom‑bust Cycles
"A less effective OPEC might seem a blessing when prices fall, but it would force the world to endure more frequent booms and busts." by @JasonBordoff https://t.co/BwcxkY65AH
Fund Managers Boost European Gas Bets Amid Storage Crunch
INVESTMENT MANAGERS have purchased European gas futures and options in the benchmark Dutch TTF contract in both of the two most recent weeks. Fund managers purchased the equivalent of 28 terawatt hours over the two weeks ending on May 1,...
Approaching 1 Billion Missing Barrels Triggers System Failure
Lost barrels are permanent—flow disruptions compound into an inventory hole By June you’re approaching ~1 billion barrels missing from the system That’s where the system shifts from “absorbing” to “failing” #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
Oil Prices Tumble as US‑Iran Peace Talks Near Breakthrough
Oil prices plunge on report U.S. and Iran closing in on a deal to end war; WTI crude down to $94: https://t.co/QnyEIvjrSL
Lithium Poised for Breakout Amid Seasonal Demand Surge
Lithium has been trading in a range for most of this year. Is this finally a breakout on the GFEX? It's a seasonally strong time of the year for lithium demand so it could very well be the next leg...
Rerouted Oil and SPR Hide Shock; Crunch by June
Pipelines + SPR are masking the shock: ~9.5 mmb/d rerouted, ~2 mmb/d from SPR The system is living off inventories Finite and front-loaded. The crunch likely hits by end-June. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz https://t.co/5pncna8vLQ
July‑August Contracts Hold over Half of Brent Liquidity
More than half of Brent liquidity is in July and August contracts #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/Bw7ModUksF
US Gas Prices Break $4.5 per Gallon Mark
For the first time since 2022, US gasoline average retail price tops $4.5 per gallon.
European Gas Traders Hedge Winter Price Spikes with Options
Europe gas traders buy options to hedge for winter price spike https://t.co/j2ETUxgF1I via @priazrocha https://t.co/zKqrjD9rfO
Pakistan Rushes to Secure LNG Amid Gas Shortage
Pakistan is urgently looking to buy more LNG to help ease its gas shortage 🇵🇰⚠️ The government is seeking two cargoes for May delivery. This comes after Pakistan recently bought its first spot shipment in over two years The Middle East conflict...
Oil Barrel Flows, Not Rhetoric, Reveal Gulf Conflict Reality
My secret formula for analyzing the Persian Gulf conflict? I ignore everything governments say and watch the barrels, says @pickeringenergy They’re not moving. Shipping through Hormuz is still at a trickle—single-digit daily transits versus ~120+ normally That tells you everything.
Rising Gas Prices Spark Imminent Food Inflation Wave
This is a concerning chart but grounded in reality. The surge in gasoline prices is likely leading commodity grains. The next wave of food inflation is already here. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ZOCR2jO7nt
Beef Imports Surge to Record $13.75B, up 28% Yo
"[B]eef imports in total are exploding at $4.5 billion through March, up 28% from a year ago. That comes after record for beef imports at $13.75 billion in 2025, up nearly $2.5 billion from a year earlier." https://t.co/M9mSqQvOq6
Physical Oil Premiums Collapse as Brent Steadies Near $115
Counterintuitive perhaps, but the physical oil market appears to be calming. Dated Brent is hovering at ~$115 a barrel, and physical differentials have narrowed massively, with grades offered at ~$3 a barrel premium to the benchmark vs the ~$30 a...
Hormuz Closed, Yet European Gas Prices Remain Low
Hormuz remains shut. But European gas prices are still below the March high Futures fell Tuesday after the US downplayed the prospects of a return to active war with Iran (but Hormuz still shut) Weaker Asian demand has also helped to reduce...
Complex Ranching Economics Drive Today’s High Beef Prices
Why is beef so expensive right now? The complicated economics of cattle ranching create pain points at key stages of production https://t.co/0RQPkADSrY
Energy Loss Triggers Partial Tank Drain Update
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: May 5, 2026 - Losing Energy..." Emptying (some of) the tank- via The Lyons Share https://t.co/YN2guyRwrE https://t.co/7w0WHrePt0
Rising Oil and Rates Signal Impending Housing Collapse
Oil, rates, and housing – here's what I see coming: • Oil to $120-150 by fall • 10-year yield at 4.43% and climbing • Housing market about to get crushed • Higher fuel = recessionary You're spending the same but getting less." oil #economy #recession #housing...
Global Oil Liftings Rebound to Pre‑war Levels.
CHART OF THE DAY: Impressive chart via @Vortexa. On a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have **recovered to their pre-war level** due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. (Of course, that's helped by massive stock...
World Bank Predicts 76% Silver Price Surge by 2026
The World Bank projects that on average, silver prices will be 76% higher in 2026 than they were in 2025 average. STAY LONG SILVER or GET LONG. https://t.co/YrIRX2T0EV
Higher Oil Prices and Yields Aren’t That Scary
seems most folks get it... higher oil and yields are not as spooky as many folks want us to believe
Oil Spikes Above $100 as Hormuz Closure Persists
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with the flimsiest of ceasefires looking flimsier by the hour, and oil prices have jumped back above $100 a barrel. At times like these, it’s important to remember that things can still get much, much,...
Germany's Solar Glut Sparks Call to Cut Renewable Subsidies
Good Morning from Germany, where deeply negative energy prices due to solar glut are forcing a rethink of the energy transition, w/Economy Minister calling to end subsidies for excess renewable electricity after costs ran into the tens of millions last...
Ranchers Profit From Calf Shortage, Driving Beef Prices
Absolutely fantastic piece about why beef prices are so high. Contrary to what many people may surmise, it's not the meatpackers getting margin right now. It's the actual ranchers, who are benefitting from an overall scarcity of calves https://t.co/kCJ8qf30ZE https://t.co/AAAodfrc0H