Commodities Social Media and Updates
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Commodities Pulse
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Kita perlu be more transparent on the risk ahead and plan. Harga & supply. Worst in history, highest in nearly 20yrs. NOT FAKE NEWS. IT’S REALITY. Other prices will spike next: FOOD. Harga minyak futures Vs harga actual jauh beza. Bloomberg lapur ini semakin meruncing: •”The world’s most important price for real-world oil barrels surged ABOVE $140 on Thursday, HIGHEST since 2008.” •”Strait of Hormuz has created the BIGGEST SUPPLY DISRUPTION in the history of the oil market.”
A 7–11% loss of oil supply is beyond what the global economy can absorb, says @LukeGromen It’s not a recession risk—it’s systemic failure. The only uncertainty is where the break shows up first, not whether it happens.
🔹Be careful: the forward curve is not a forecast. It has rarely matched actual realized prices. For example, if you assume the December 2026 futures price reflects where the market will actually be at that time, you’re to be...
Indian government has cut excise taxes on petrol and diesel to help keep pump prices stable. Oil marketing companies are also sharing the burden, bearing losses of INR 24/litre (12 cents) on petrol and INR 104/litre ($1.12) on diesel.
RON95 is still RM1.99. The government spent RM3.2 billion in under a week to keep it there. Who do you think pays for that eventually — consumers or businesses? Drop your answer below
The spot price for current physical cargoes of Brent crude oil soared Thursday to $141.36, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to S&P Global - CNBC
Everything suggests that at least ~4 million barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz today. Largest outflow since the 1st day of the Third Gulf War. (... And yes, that's a fraction of the 20 million barrels a day...
Most recent interview.... Note: New record highs for the US after the closure of Hormuz: 🎯Export of petroleum products 🎯Exports of Naphtha 🎯Exports of LNG
Third Gulf War — energy impact (week-on-week; Fri-to-Thu because Easter): Dated Brent oil: ⏫ +17.5% (note physical, not futures) WTI crude oil: ⏫ +12.2% Newcastle coal: ↔️ +1.5% EU nat gas TTF ⏬ -7.6% German power:...
🎯 Following the Hormuz Crisis, U.S. exports of petroleum products surged to a record high last month as Europe suffers for high diesel and jet fuel prices, while Venezuela’s crude oil exports reached their highest level in six years. 🎯Following Trump's...
National average gasoline at $4.07. Probably take $120 WTI oil to get to $5 per gallon Gas (WTI now at $112 per barrel)
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Imports – The White House https://t.co/IXDEgVOFVH
Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States – The White House https://t.co/K1KguBjwkT
Brent crude oil futures looking out a few months and beyond are down sharply in the past week @augurinfinity https://t.co/0xHk81TJYg https://t.co/VVmceseKBH
All this sticking a fork in soybeans and corn makes me feel so much better that we are not near our highs yet. Even the farmers hate it going up. Lol. Have a great holiday Eater weekend and back...
Tomorrow, I am going to show that there is actually a path towards a fully recovered oil-flow in 4 weeks from now, even despite a situation where Trump doesn't really end the war, or where he leaves with solving the...
From Bloomberg: “The world’s most important price for real-world oil barrels surged above $140 on Thursday, the highest since 2008. Dated Brent, the price of shipments bought and sold in the North Sea, reached $141.37, surpassing levels seen when Russia invaded...
🇺🇸The food-vs-fuel debate is back amid the war-driven surge in energy costs, particularly for corn-based ethanol. Yes, 2026 U.S. corn plantings will drop from 2025, largely due to rotations. But 2026 could see the 4th largest corn area since WWII and...
Short but (characteristically) excellent piece from @Rory_Johnston on Trump’s speech and the oil market https://t.co/UCAlkgeCLD https://t.co/TaxA7jMxrL
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think we’re anywhere close to having a “deal” or the strait of Hormuz opening anytime soon. This 3 day weekend could be a absolute sh-t show and almost expect it to be...
WTI is important for diesel pricing, but retail diesel is set on on ULSD heating oil contract traded n NYMEX, which already saw these levels over last 10 days. Retail diesel will move up in price, but nearly as dramatic...
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War The total volume of unproduced Gulf barrels is set to rise above one billion barrels over full shock duration; lost production in April alone will absorb nearly the entire...
Another Victor and Uncle Albert moment as @MrMBrown and I debunk the myth of a global natural gas price. Pay attention at the back "taps sign" https://t.co/ii46KI6Uxn
VIDEO COLUMN: Another food crisis? The experience of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, plus the increase in fertiliser prices, have prompted concern about another food price spike. But the situation in 2026 isn't nearly as concerning. At least, no yet. https://t.co/BjXPjnhMrG
Physical oil hits its highest level since 2008 *DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141.37/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008 https://t.co/OkcbcnE3kg
Prior to the President’s address, the NDR Hormuz Stress Index began showing early signs of easing. Crude markets are tight, overbought and sentiment is excessively optimistic. Overbought conditions have historically seen low or below average returns but not necessarily outright...
1. This chart is drawn from my Monday farmdoc webinar that I did with @JosephJanzen after the USDA reports. It shows first quarter (implied) total corn use estimated based on quarterly grain stocks and the market surprise in...
🇺🇸USA exported 2.43 million metric tons (89 mbu) of soybeans to China in February, slightly above the month's five-year average. Q2 (Dec-Feb) 2025/26 U.S. bean shipments to China edged the year-ago Q2 volume by about one cargo, but Q1 2025/26 was...
While the world (rightfully) focuses on Iran and the price of oil, the USDA released the March Prospective Plantings and the latest Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday. I joined Joseph Janzen for a farmdoc webinar shortly after the...
US-based WTI crude oil is up around 110 with today's surge following President Trumps address to the nation yesterday. Notably, this puts WTI (US-benchmark) to a ~3 premium to Brent. That's the first premium (on a weekly basis) since Jan...
This is correct. Americans will pay higher prices, but aren't going to run out of energy.
China’s exposure to the loss of Middle East LNG China will likely reduce its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in response to the loss of supplies from the Middle East and higher spot prices mostly by curbing gas-fired power generation and...
Prompt WTI timespreads today hit a record high of $15/bbl If you've currently got a barrel of physical WTI-deliverable crude in the Cushing area, you can *rent* said barrel to the market for the next two and a half weeks and...
European natural gas prices (TTF) are up 6% to about $17/mmbtu on fears that a prolonged disruption in the Middle East will curb supply 🇪🇺 US gas prices (Henry Hub) are down nearly 1% to $2.8/mmbtu as shale production keeps...
CHART OF THE DAY: The extreme backwardation in WTI oil futures, and the impact on (lack of) hedging opportunities for US shale for 2027-28. While the front of the curve has exploded (+$44 a barrel), the back (24 months out...
If you manage outside money, put the letters “CFA” at the end of your social media name, and today you are asking “Why is WTI trading above Brent?,” I’m afraid your clients have a problem.
“It’s a risky strategy:” Why delaying coal closures may backfire on price and reliability #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/HYRCRQ04NT https://t.co/I4f2Ny9CkJ
WTI crude just absolutely sending it. The US crude benchmark is now at its highest level since that melt-up we got on the second Monday of the war. https://t.co/4hONtQf997
To @anasalhajji ‘s point, you’d be hard pressed to engineer a more perfect recipe for a major sustained spike in crude & products, with accompanying global recession and market crash, than what Trump’s crew has unleashed. The 12-D chess of...
New Episode: For aviation, a “No Jet Fuel Left” reality is around the corner in several markets, as airlines try to outbid each other for the little Jet A-1 fuel remaining. 🛢️ Here’s what’s happening 👇🏽🎧 #OnAir (available on all...
Look at that backwardation...prompt spread (difference between the front-month oil futures contract and the subsequent contract) blowing out to records https://t.co/KBfkkpr9IC
With the apparent TACO yesterday, the administration is saying we will wind down our involvement in Iran without figuring out how to work through the disruption leading to $4+ gas prices in the USA? @EnergyEmpirePod https://t.co/N9KbLRP829
With Hormuz still disrupted, diesel is going to the highest bidder Europe will have to compete hard for every marginal barrel. https://t.co/76ycFBcrIj #Diesel #Europe #OilMarkets
OPEC researchers raise a very important point here. A major oversight in forecasts predicting a sharp drop in oil demand from rising EV adoption is the failure to account for the ongoing growth in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Ironically,...
RM4 billion in subsidies sounds like protection. It is actually a countdown clock. Malaysia has spent more defending fuel prices in one month than most emergency budgets allocate for an entire quarter — and the conflict that triggered it has no...
Don't fall for the easy narrative that costly gas will mean more coal burn in Asia. Briefly in the short term maybe, but the long term trajectory toward renewables gets stronger. Look at the math behind the argument. 🎁🔗 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-01/iran-war-the-lng-shock-isn-t-driving-asia-back-to-coal
Taking Kharg Island or bombing powerplants takes Iran's oil off global markets for a long time. That spikes oil by a lot more and is what markets fear most. Better to do an embargo and take Iran's oil off the...
Exclusive: Russian oil output cuts are unavoidable as drone attacks shrink exports, sources say https://t.co/5XWsLO71R7
Whipsawed once again: That is the state of the oil market and beyond as investors react to President Trump’s address to the nation regarding the Middle East War. (5-day WTI oil price chart below from CNBC.) #economy #markets #oil #MiddleEastWar @cnbc
Oil prices surge, WTI May at $108 now. This is the "cheap" oil (Brent is more expensive)
