Gas Prices Stay Above $4.50, Diesel Near Records
Heading into the peak U.S. driving season, the latest AAA data show regular gas (petrol) prices holding above $4.50 a gallon and diesel prices near record highs. #economy #markets #gas
Fertilizer Shortage Spikes Potato Prices, Makes $136k Spenders Millionaires
FACT: If you spent $136,000 on potatoes last month, you'd be a millionaire right now. Potato prices have skyrocketed from €2.5 to €18.5 per 100 kg because fertiliser supplies are drying up after the Strait of Hormuz was closed. https://t.co/vyaLL0pKgh
Markets View Iran War as Ongoing Demand Drag
WTI fell 6% this week and 12-month spreads fell 25%. Markets now see the Iran war as a persistent drag, not an imminent systemic collapse They increasingly expect demand destruction, not growth, to rebalance the market. #WTI #OilMarkets #Backwardation #DemandDestruction #EnergyCrisis #Brent...
Buy Short‑Dated Refined‑Product Futures Amid Tight Global Oil Stocks
GS: global oil stocks at ~98 DoD; rapid depletion, regional concentration and naphtha/LPG/jet shortages risk local fuel runs. Trade: buy short-dated refined-product futures. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China’s Refined Fuel Exports Hit Decade Low Despite HK Exemption
China's exports of diesel, gasoline, jet fuel other refined fuels fell to the lowest level in a ~decade in April thanks to the export ban. That probably understates the contraction because the trade figures include HK, which is exempted from...
New Wind‑Storage Beats Fossil Costs, Proving Bankruptcy
In the UK, Germany, and Spain, building brand-new wind + storage is cheaper than simply paying for the fuel and maintenance of existing fossil plants >Storage costs fell 93% since 2010 >New gas generation is now >$100/MWh >Firm wind + storage in Germany...
Boosted Precious
#GLD, #GLDM no update #IAU +4koz #gold #SIVR +713koz #silver #PPLT +100k units, #PALL bought 1.1koz #palladium #SCPO +38k units, no #copper bought
China’s Refineries Cut Throughput, Using Underground Storage
Why aren’t China’s onshore crude inventories collapsing? Because Chinese refineries have throttled back crude throughput, says @HFI_Research They’re drawing refined product inventories and crude from UNDERGROUND storage. The system is rebalancing flows, not operating normally. #China #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Refining #CrudeOil #OilStorage #Macro...
Energy Prices Surge Over 50% Since New Year
JUST IN: Since January 1, 2026, prices have increased for gasoline by 103%, heating oil by 84%, Brent crude oil by 66%, crude oil by 66%, European gas by 56%, and coal by 23%.
Fuel Shortage Spikes Texas Gas Prices, Looming Downturn
25% of the fuel that has kept prices here in the US artificially lower is now vanished from the market...gas has jumped .20 a week here in Texas since the war started. Its bout to ve a rough fall
Egg Prices Hit Record Low Near One Dollar
Eggs approaching $0 Down to 17 cents per dozen wholesale ($0.99/dozen at the store by me)... easily a record low, adjusted for wages https://t.co/nNvmz5OSuZ
Copper Hits Record, Enters New Price‑Discovery Regime
Copper officially closed at record weekly prices today. This increasingly looks like the beginning of a true price-discovery phase for the metal. It reminds me of gold once it finally cleared the $2,000/oz level and the market began adjusting to a completely...
Today's Gas Futures Mirror 2022 Peak, Pre‑war Levels
US gasoline (RBOB) futures curve today (white), the day before the Iran War kicked off (blue), and around the all-time highs of June 2022 (orange) https://t.co/v35dgEexze
US Gasoline Crack Spread Surges, Matching 2022 Levels
US gasoline crack spread (i.e., refining margin) continues to ratchet higher. WAY above the norm, currently tracking 2022's trajectory. https://t.co/h2HPzueo5V
2026/27 Wheat Stocks Uncertain,
🌾The world's wheat cushion for 2026/27 is still largely uncertain. Current analyst scenarios span a 16.5-million-ton range in ending stocks for the upcoming marketing year, a reminder that global food systems remain highly sensitive to production and demand trends. https://t.co/C3rbIt4bHj
Analyzing Oil Market Shock After Hormuz Closure
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz now into its 3rd month, I sat down for a wide-ranging discussion with @ProfGMarkets on the reverberations from the largest disruption in history of oil markets, and where we go from here....
Backwardation Masks True Oil Price, Reflects Convenience Yield
Below we see the front contract for crude oil, as well as its 9-month forward (purple line). For WTI the spread is $109 vs $75. That’s called backwardation, and the lazy interpretation (of which I have been guilty) is that...
Tyson Beef Faces $350‑$500M Loss Amid Cattle Shortage
"Tyson’s beef operations posted a wider loss, and the company expects the segment to lose $350M to $500M in 2026... the severity of the current cattle shortage has sent prices so high that meatpackers are losing money on every animal...
Oil Shock May Mirror 2022 Spike, Not Gulf War
Not to rain on this bullish parade, but there is a left tail lurking out there in the Strait of Hormuz. The more I learn about the mechanics of the energy market, the more concerned I am that what the...
Silver Gains Amid Metals Complex Developments
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: May 8, 2026 - Silver's Lining..." Developments in the metals complex - via The Lyons Share https://t.co/LuHqjsW3zE https://t.co/VzwML7lZxc
Vale Indonesia Q1 Shows Nickel Output Decline, Cost Pressures
PT Vale Indonesia’s Q1 2026 earnings transcript is out. Key nickel output and cost trends were discussed—worth a read for insights on market direction. 📉🔍 NickelNews
Oil Backwardation May Signal Deeper, Lasting Market Stress
My sense has been that the market is interpreting the backwardated oil strip as a glass half full, concluding that the forward price of $75 is “right” and that the spot price of $109 is temporary. But what if it’s...
Physical Oil Spreads Collapse as Market Reverses
CHARTS OF THE DAY: Rightly or wrongly, the physical oil market has turned around (📉⤵️). Other physical datapoints (early May vs mid Apr): WTI is down to +$2.5 to Dated Brent from +$22 CPC is down to -$0.35 to Dated from +$7 Dalia (a...
Hormuz Disruption Fuels Inflation, Boosts Commodities Amid Stubborn Rates
Market seems to be missing the fact that things will not be "normal" in the Strait of Hormuz for a long, long time. Inflation is on the rise and I like commodities here. Pain trade is going to...
Food Prices Hit Highest Level Since Feb 2023
The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6% to 130.7 points in April 2026, marking a third consecutive monthly increase and reaching the highest since February 2023. @teconomics https://t.co/bpHk0ywtYy
Derivatives Push Up Prices of Oil Substitutes
Ripple Effects: Derivatives and oil-substitute product prices are now rising. - Plastics - Rubber - Cotton - Vegetable oils Only the beginning... https://t.co/79egdw2eDg
Energy Index Peaks, Mirrors 30‑Year Treasury Deflation Trend
Energy, T-Bonds, Stocks and Post-Inflation Deflation The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex may have peaked in 2026 at about 500, similar to its 2005 apex, with deflationary implications. My graphic highlights the energy index's same-chart syndrome with the 30-year US Treasury (in...
Oil Prices May Drop, Debt Burden Continues Rising
At some point, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil prices will fall back to pre-war levels. But the latest rise in long-term yields won't get reversed. Every shock that happens permanently ratchets up global fiscal stress. A one-way...
Trump Says U.S. Oil Exports Need No Restrictions
President Donald Trump said there’s no need for any US export restrictions on oil or jet fuel to address US price increases sparked by the war with Iran. “We don’t need them,” he told reporters Thursday in Washington. “And we have...
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.6% to 2026 Inflation
Even under a cautiously optimistic scenario in which the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for 1 quarter, the surge in oil prices is expected to raise US headline inflation by 0.6 percentage points and core inflation by 0.2...
China Curbs Demand as US Supply Stalls, Reshaping Oil Market
Supply and demand determine the oil price. If the Americans can't boost supply to keep prices low, then the Chinese know how to dampen demand. Superb insights in here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-08/iran-war-china-s-invisible-hand-is-rebalancing-the-oil-market
China’s Covert Oil Import Cuts Cap Prices, Flatten Differentials
COLUMN: China is quietly slashing oil imports, an invisible hand that's rebalancing the market in the middle of the Hormuz closure. (The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also triggered a collapse in physical differentials) @Opinion https://t.co/GND1uXtbwV
Taiwan's Energy Crisis Fueled by Costly Spot LNG
Taiwan is spending its way out of an energy crisis 🇹🇼💰 The country received 35% of its LNG from Qatar/UAE last year. All of that supply is now being replaced by more expensive shipments from the spot market
China's Oil Imports Drop, Re‑exports Surge, Demand Stalls
China is importing less oil & re-exporting more. This one of the first genuinely bearish physical signals to emerge since the war began. @JavierBlas offers no satisfying explanations but I will China’s overproduction machine has hit a demand wall. https://t.co/snT1YW3WuM #oil #China #energy #economy...
US NatGas Surplus Grows to 96 Bcf, Prices Slip
U.S natural gas comparative fell 12 bcf to a surplus of 96 bcf week ending May 1 Spot price fell $0.04 to $2.66 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/mxouFSaNgi
US Crude Exports Plunge, Net Imports Rise to 0.7 Mmb/D
US crude exports fell 1.7mmb/d from 6.4 to 4.8 mmb/d week ending May 1 Imports decreased 0.3 mmb/d to 5.5 mmb/d Net imports rose 1.4 mmb/d to 0.7 mmb/d #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/AamhCIUJgi
PJM Admits Capacity Price Surge, Calls for Market Overhaul
PJM just cried "Uncle". They admit that capacity prices are up 1,000%+ in two auctions and that money goes to existing generators, doesn't send a signal to build new on 3 year contracts. The prescription is pretty bold. They aren't...
Jet Fuel Demand Plummets From Record Highs, Trend Downward
Jet fuel demand has collapsed from extreme highs It's still above average, but the trend is down fast. The slowdown is already in motion. #OilMarkets #JetFuel #DemandDestruction #EnergyEconomy https://t.co/JDwHlYnP3u
WTI Spot Carries $30 Risk Premium Amid Inventory Gap
WTI spot price includes a $30 risk premium Inventories say $75, markets say $105 CI decreased 7 mmb and price rose $10.14 week ending May 1 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/yJuiZBpbBn
China's Dip‑buying Fuels Emerging Global Gold Rush
China continues to buy the dip in gold. A global gold rush is unfolding right in front of our eyes. https://t.co/mQgTbFf90L https://t.co/QRErTYJHa9
Tiny Brent Swing Now Just Another Thursday
Brent went from a $5/bbl decline to a $2/bbl gain today. Once upon a time that would have been a really remarkable day. Now it’s just Thursday. https://t.co/LZ2YTU2NNo
Russia Sells Ruble, Buys Yuan to Curb Appreciation
Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, oil prices have SURGED & so has the value of the Russian ruble. To prevent the ruble from excessive strengthening, Russia is SELLING the ruble & BUYING foreign currency, primarily the Chinese yuan. https://t.co/zThMoq7cun
Brazil Hits Record Soybean Exports, China Takes 69%
🇧🇷Brazil exported 16.7 million metric tons (615 mbu) of soybeans in April, a new all-time record. Brazil exported a record 40 mmt (1.48 bbu) in the first four months of 2026. Top destinations by share: 🇨🇳China 69% 🇪🇺EU 8% 🇹🇷Turkey 4% 🇹🇭Thailand 3% https://t.co/YKBbfHBknk
Unusual, Concentrated Oil Volumes Precede Key Announcements, Says Onyx Founder
Reuters: "Let's stay with the facts. The volumes were highly unusual. They were concentrated. They were ahead of key announcements," said Jorge Montepeque from Onyx Capital Group, who helped design the modern system of setting oil prices at pricing agency...
Gold Bears Beware: Emerging Positive Pattern Highlighted
A lot of bears on gold it feels like, but @FrankCappelleri noted a potential positive pattern in his note this morning. 🥇 https://t.co/UXOaAOz64J
Oil Firms Can Lose Money Even at $100 per Barrel
How Oil Companies Lose Money at $100 Per Barrel Instead of massive profits, some oil companies even face bankruptcy. Energy economist Ed Hirs explains. https://youtu.be/tkY-3oUHXAY
Oil Shock Persists: Tight Global Fuel Supplies for Months
Oil Shock Far From Over: Energy Giants Warn Global Fuel Supplies May Stay Tight for Months After Iran Deal. And the longer it takes to get a deal? https://t.co/sOpjmIj1ok
Jet Fuel Crisis Exacerbated by Hoarding, Not Supply
✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️ The Global Jet Fuel Crisis: It Would Have Been Mitigated Were It Not for Hoarding Daily Energy Report https://t.co/m1p26knF8S
US Crude Stocks Plunge 8.1M Barrels; Stay Long Oil
During this past week, US crude oil inventories fell by a staggering 8.1 million barrels. STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/JNDz5oEds3
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Oil Shock and Market Outlook
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I'm joined by the one and only @ericnuttall to talk about the ongoing Hormuz crisis oil supply shock, how oil and gas equities are pricing the conflict, and what...