Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Social Media and Updates
Commodities Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Oil prices surge, WTI May at $108 now. This is the "cheap" oil (Brent is more expensive)
Fuel prices for UK motorists rose by a record in March on Iran war https://t.co/61fdr9l4QE https://t.co/jkbJIwsFkN
$SLV - The monthly volume in January was the highest volume ever. Such volume expansions happen only at major tops. After every major top silver declines into the next 7 year cycle low. The next 7YCL is due in late...
Lower EIA US oil forecast probably reflects demand destruction & weakened economic activity resulting from the Iran war @Peter_Strachan
Ryan Sweet of @OxfordEconomics sees brent crude $113 a barrel on average for Q2, even with a potential near-term end to military action. "The military timeline differs from the economic one. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, &...
Natural disasters emerge as the dominant trigger for supply disruptions in agriculture and energy. Geopolitical risks mainly affect energy and precious metals markets and have recently become important also for agricultural commodities https://t.co/vE0F6bepwD
Yicai: "Leading Chinese manufacturers of solar modules have raised the prices of their products, as China is lifting the 9 percent rebates on the export value-added tax for photovoltaic products. However even as large manufacturers have raised prices, the market...
PODCAST: Great to be back at "Odd Lots" with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart. Lots to discuss linked to the US-Iran war: why oil prices will go much higher to destroy demand, but why expensive fertilizer doesn't mean a food crisis is coming. https://t.co/UoHIl2cOqk
China was ready for an oil shock and now investors are reaping the rewards https://t.co/5KptlsOcOf
SINGAPORE, April 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed more than $5 on Thursday, as President Donald Trump said the United States would keep up attacks on Iran without committing to a specific timeline to end the war, fanning investor...
Norway's driest winter in years is rippling through electricity markets, slashing hydropower exports to the UK and Germany and pushing Nordic prices higher. https://t.co/wBDNZWRUds
Brent is up $5.70 to $107 since Trump’s speech. The drop to $100 was a roll artifact from May to June, not a real easing. Now it’s pushing back toward the pre-roll $118 level. Trump didn’t change the market—he confirmed what it already...
"Chinese firms are reselling record volumes of LNG, cashing in on soaring spot prices as China has enough domestic and pipeline gas to meet its own weakened demand, in stark contrast to other Asian buyers scrambling to replace supplies cut...
If we assume that Hormuz remains closed for the next month, which now seems like a pretty solid bet, the barrels not produced by Gulf states thanks to production shut-ins in **April alone** will be roughly equivalent to the entire...
I watched Brent Crude move in real time during tonight's Trump address. +$4.12 in 16 minutes. I took Screenshots every 60–90 seconds and turned it into an interqactive chart. This is what policy sounds like in the oil market. Brent Crude opened...
JUST IN: Brent crude oil climbed 5% as Trump promised to strike Iran extremely hard within weeks.
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will "open up naturally" Brent oil prices rise nearly 2% (a session high for the day) https://t.co/7fvQPaw1Bv
TRUMP: "Many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at home. This short term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and...
JUST IN: Iran's dominance in the Strait of Hormuz has withheld around 500 million barrels of oil from the market, boosting prices by about 40%.
In case useful, considering both oil’s recent price range and price velocity, here are the current sensitivity measures to the oil price https://t.co/nbPN3tJ8na
Southeast Asia Is Bracing for an Energy Crisis as Air Conditioner Season Begins #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/CuhzSgjJTV https://t.co/k3QU0ztuit
Which lowers electricity prices, more renewables or more fossil fuels? More wind, solar, geothermal & hydro correlate with lower electricity prices worldwide and across the 50 states. More fossils, nuclear & biomass all independently correlate with higher prices. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yI9vlrRSc7w
Why is front month Brent oil down on the day both Australian and UK prime ministers gave 'batten down the hatches' addresses to their nations?
The spread is waking up again Renewed widening in the contango between #SHFE Silver Futures and #SGE
Yes, I'm an economist. And yes, I'll talk about oil and gas prices. But still, I wonder whether (and why) we're avoiding talking about the bigger costs of war.
The reshuffling of gas and LNG exports as the Hormuz crisis move to its second month is an experience that we need to learn form.
This is turning out to be a very disappointing day for the bears in the #soybeans. Bull spreads have even turned.
Asia is being FORCED BACK TO COAL to keep the lights on. Gas shortages are leaving countries with no other alternatives. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/h4FiiSWzHr
“Markets are forward looking, and they’re just looking forward to a future when the Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed.” Aren’t we all. https://t.co/U9K3hLC2zT
Question for incidence-knowers: If post ante regime is one where ships can transit Hormuz as long as they pay a toll, will the end result be --higher prices for final consumers --lower profits for non-Iranian Gulf exporters --rough mix (any split within 1/3-2/3 of...
U.S. oil production after the war ends U.S. oil production is unlikely to rise much as a result of the war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz unless the interruption of oil supplies and rise in prices proves...
Pexapark: Middle East conflict could increase European solar PPA prices by 35% #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/V7vYLlm1b0
When looking at the oil market: Brent **June** futures (settled at the end of April): That's trading at ~$102 a barrel. But physical Brent market for prompt delivery: That's trading at ~$125 a barrel. There's a big difference depending on when a refinery needs...
Petrodollar (or lack of them) update: Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel 1/
What tells a clear story? Crude oil prices = No Product prices = Yes... https://t.co/Ltyf8VQx12
$Silver - Blow off moves in the past ended with a return to the origin of the blow off. In 1980 it was to the April 1978 low at 4.90. In 2011 it was to the February 2010 low at...
$Gold - The March candle was a bearish engulfing candle similar to September 2011. At the monthly low it hit the 10 month MA as it did in September 2011. The bull market may be over and gold could suffer...
Watch Price of Brent Should Be Higher to Reflect Situation in Iran War, Says Ellen Wald - Bloomberg @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #iran https://t.co/rdYCFWeqvC
I will keep retweeting updates of @GasBuddyGuy great data. This dispersion in diesel prices is both striking and relevant.
Though fertilizer prices are soaring, so far food prices are not. Good news from Alan Beattie in the Financial Times. Featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/4bpBb11NI9
Gas grid operator VNG has urged the German government to take action to make sure storage is refilled with price spreads uneconomical amid high prices driven by the Middle East war. https://t.co/wlBhZjRU8Z
The big drop you see in Brent crude prices overnight is primarily the prompt (ie front-month) contract roll from May to June May Brent crude contract expired at >$118 June currently [somehow??] trading at $101 So relieved to hear this will be entirely...
Spoke to @AJEnglish on Iran war & energy. Crises always drive up fossil fuel prices. That's not a bug but a feature of dependence. The only hedge against this kind of disruption is the clean energy transition. The economic case just got...
Brent has fallen sharply as the US sounds increasingly like it just wants to declare "mission accomplished" and end this war. I do think the midterm elections later this year mean the US is on a very tight timeline and...
Hormuz Closure, December Futures Signal Post-Inflation Deflation - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz might have already triggered a global recession, with lose-lose implications for most risk assets and commodities -- particularly crude oil. Rolling to front-month just before...
Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation - January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Full report on...
When the G7 price cap was being negotiated in 2022, one US bank had an oil forecast of $380. That was the oil sector talking. It hates interference in its business. It's the same now. $150 or $200 forecasts...
Brent futures are beginning to reflect physical reality $118. 35 closing price was only $0.68 less than peak Ukraine in late March 2022 Much steeper backwardation now https://t.co/N03VvzUcs3
For non-Macro Tourist eyes only: LIVE Shot of the "end of the war" in TRENDING Energy Price terms https://t.co/BnmybmKwlL
India's top coal producer said output fell in March, but that it still has enough stockpiles to meet higher demand 🇮🇳⚠️ Coal consumption in India is now on an upward trajectory on expectations of a hot summer and gas shortages due...
