U.S. Urea Imports Soar to Record, Russia Leads Supply
🇺🇸U.S. imports of urea, a nitrogen fertilizer heavily used in farming, hit an all-time high in March 2026. The shipments were valued at $576 million. Q1 2026 imports were up 15% on the year. Top Q1 suppliers by volume: 🇷🇺Russia 30% 🇶🇦Qatar 25% 🇴🇲Oman 11% 🇳🇬Nigeria 9% https://t.co/j1fPzqxaP4
Metals Lean on Stocks While Energy, Grains Revert
Normal autocorrelation in commodities vs. rising dependency. Energy and grains typically go down because they went up. Metals appear highly dependent on stocks to keep going up. https://t.co/ipBg8zbDaq
US Retail Diesel and Gas Prices Near Record Highs
GS: US Retail Diesel and Gasoline Prices Increased to Just $0.2/gal and $0.5/gal Below Their Respective All-Time Highs https://t.co/7rCLdcv6vm
High US Oil Prices Yet Recession Odds Remain Low
So US oil prices are remaining at very lofty levels with inevitable carry over effects on US (and global) GDP...but the probability of a recession has dropped to pre-war lows? Either the economy is less dependent on energy or we...
Narrow Wall Street Rally Masks Deepening Energy Scarcity
Wall Street rebound driven by smallest number of stocks on record via Financial Times. Narrow gains are not good. My friends who are closest to the energy markets are completely flummoxed by the drop in futures prices for WTI and...
Oil Shortages Looming: Europe by May, US by July
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on when oil shortages will hit: "Parts of the world like Australia, Philippines, Thailand already are [in a shortage]. Europe will hit tank bottoms sometime in May. In the US it will be...
Commodity Supercycle Begins: Bloomberg Index Up 28%
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has reached over 140 points. The index is now up 28% this year. As I’ve said, "We're entering a commodity supercycle. You want to be long commodities.” https://t.co/up5X1itoJL
Energy Crunch Will Continue Despite Iran Peace Deal, Says Maersk
Maersk Says Energy Crunch to Persist Even If Iran Peace Deal Struck. Not surprising. This extended mess will not fix itself overnite. https://t.co/qJBag33bE9
WTI Plunges 11% as Rumor‑Driven Headlines Swirl
US benchmark crude oil (WTI) is down -11% over the past two days. Since both sides likes to make their rap battle threats on social, they should lay out clearly their terms on social so we can follow along. This market...
Nickel Market Ignoring Sherritt Exit, Chinese Consolidation Looms
The market is not pricing in the nickel news of Sherritt leaving Cuba. S has material until June. Can the Cuban's manage the mine? What about the tailings issues? If Canada no longer can process material...
US‑Iran Conflict Affects 20% LNG, Just 3% of Global Gas
Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "While 20% of the world's LNG is impacted [by US-Iran war], that equals to only 3% of the world's natural gas." (An important point that's often overlooked)
Rising Gas Prices Make Tesla $2k Cheaper Annually
Markets are Speaking Gasoline commodity since January: +100% This is what higher gas prices do to EV demand. It's now almost $2000 cheaper to drive a Tesla than a gasoline-powered car per year. cc @elonmusk https://t.co/sx9JHvByFa
US Oil Inventories Drop 7.1 MMb, Crude Leads Decline
US comparative inventory fell 7.1 mmb for the week ending May 1 Crude oil and all refined products decreased except residual and distillate #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/ywcLKBDgl6
Iran's Oil Restrictions Threaten Prices, Risk War
This is an excellent point. Iran is disincentivized to allow all traffic because it can push up oil prices. This cannot be allowed. Actual wars have been fought over issues like this.
India’s Heavy Sour Crude Imports at 50% of Capacity
🇮🇳Key context: India’s current heavy sour crude imports are running at roughly half of its processing capacity.
API Weekly Report Shows Draws in Crude, Distillate, Gasoline
The American Petroleum Institute Weekly Statistical Bulletin is out showing draws against crude stocks, distillate and gasoline stocks. https://t.co/fp4XONEkmr
US Corn Exports Beat Averages; Soybeans Hit Year Low
🇺🇸U.S. corn export sales last week were modest vs expectations but well above weekly averages. Soybean sales were a marketing year low. Old-crop wheat sales missed, but new crop (188kt) met estimates of between 0-250kt. https://t.co/sGX9kRW1Cn
Jan ’27 Gas Futures Predict $3.30 Pump Price
Jan '27 gasoline futures are a dollar below the prompt... implying a AAA average pump price near $3.30 by late this year https://t.co/eTlTFWg6h2
Silver ETF Surges 11% in Two Days, Matching GDX
$SLV silver ETF +11% last two days.. best since February... simillar gain in $GDX https://t.co/sUSuHwO65U
Beef Price Surge Hits McDonald's Profits in Europe, US
Beef inflation is ore pronounced in Europe but is putting pressure on McDonald's franchisee profitability in the U.S., too. $MCD
Iran Conflict Disrupts Global Fertilizer Supply, Hits US
The Iran war is already having major repercussions on fertilizer supply, even in the US! Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/p0abfkJwEY
Discussing Oil, Iran, and Hormuz Tensions on Bloomberg Radio
Well, what is going on with #oil? #Iran? #StraitofHormuz? I'll be on @BloombergRadio to discuss in a few minutes. #oott @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/2nAmjfl1Yf
US Gas Prices Surge 53% to 30‑Year High
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.56 per gallon, their highest level since July 2022. The 53% spike over the last 10 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.56/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/TTvJBJvcVF
Oil Futures Drop Reflect Peace‑Deal Odds, Not Manipulation
Falling futures prices don't mean the paper market is manipulated. All the supply shortfall numbers at this point are well known. Markets are trading the length of the shortfall. Any headline that raises odds of a peace deal naturally pulls...
Shippers Brace for Rising B
Maersk: Cost of bunker fuel. Supply and price. Are shippers ready as Strait of Hormuz remains blocked?
WTI Oil Peaks in May, June, December; Dips March, August
Oil (WTI) -- Months Annually - 10 yr average Seasonality Best May +7.6% June +4.4% Dec +3.1% Worst Mar -2.8% Aug -2.4% Nov -2.2% Bloomberg "SEAG" Function.
WTI Crude Peaks Near $120; Bonds, Grains Stabilize
Peak Inklings: $100 Crude, 5% T-Bonds, $5 Corn and Gas, $12 Soy Roughly $120 a barrel in WTI crude oil may be reaching its peak potential, akin to $147 in 2008 and $130 in 2022. Staying below $100 would reinforce the...
Crude Oil Lower-High Pattern Holds, Fueled by US Stocks
Crude Oil Pump-Then-Dump Pattern Appears Intact The crude oil pattern of lower highs since 2008 is being tested in 2026 and looks intact. My graphic shows a top potential determinant for maintaining the lower-lows trend -- the lofty US stock market. Full...
India Hikes LPG Price 48% Amid Middle East Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India just hiked the price of the 19kg commercial LPG cylinder by ₹993. That’s a STAGGERING jump of almost 48% since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. RESTAURANTS AND CATERERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP...
Cocoa Prices Surge 38% Monthly, Signaling Quad2 Inflation
Cocoa inflating more than +9% in a day to +38% in a month = #Quad2 Inflation Accelerating https://t.co/v93q9RpLgl
Shell's Q1 Profits Jump as Iran War Lifts Prices
Shell says its profits surged in the first quarter as the Iran war drove oil and gas prices higher https://t.co/oiET1zMQ1V
U.S. Diesel Stocks Hit 20-Year Low Amid Hormuz Closure
U.S. DISTILLATE STOCKS have fallen to the lowest for the time of year for more two decades as closure of the Strait of Hormuz creates a worldwide shortage of diesel and similar fuels. Since the war began, distillate inventories have...
Brent Projected to Average $170+ by Q2 2027
Once cumulative oil losses are fully priced, the base case starts to look a lot like the adverse case @Mgubel The path is volatile, but it pulls Brent toward a ~$170+ average by Q2 2027. #Oil #Brent #EnergyCrisis #DemandDestruction #Commodities #EnergyMarkets...
Silver Surge Signals New Era of Higher Metal Prices
What a move in silver. Game on. We are in a structurally higher metal price environment driven by decades of underinvestment, constrained supply growth, and a global macro environment that continues to favor hard assets. Markets are still very slow to fully...
Brent Crude Slides Below $100 on US‑Iran Deal Hopes
Good morning. Brent crude is currently trading below $100 per barrel on hopes for a US-Iran deal (CNBC chart). #oil #energy #economy #markets
Brent May Spike to $140, Then Settle Near $100
Base case: Brent pushes toward $140 by October Then demand destruction resets the market to a ~$100–105 clearing range. #Oil #Brent #EnergyCrisis #DemandDestruction #Commodities #EnergyMarkets #SupplyShock #Macro #Inflation #Energy https://t.co/rl6RmImm1d
Lithium Surge Drives AMG Revenue, yet EBITDA Lags
Macro: lithium surge boosts AMG revenue; EBITDA down vs strong comps. Drivers: Bitterfeld ramp, vanadium margins, inventory writedown reversal. Risks: leverage, working-capital. Trade: buy dips.— Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Australia Mandates 20% of New LNG for Locals
Australia will require its LNG producers to reserve 20% of its new gas production for the domestic market 🇦🇺🚢 The government aims to curb prices and avert shortages on the populous east coast. The gas industry AND environmentalists broadly oppose this https://t.co/9Nk7ADuxJe
Today's Oil Prices Boost U.S. Economy, Not Burden
"Oil prices are at similar levels to 2007." Truth: We have a long way to go to hit $148/barrel peak oil from 07/08 and on an inflation adjusted basis it was well over $200/barrel. We are far away from that...
Iran Crisis Highlights Global Oil Supply Security Risks
My panel discussion on @AJEnglish programme “Counting the Cost”, which tackled some key key big-picture questions around oil supply and energy supply security thrown up by the Iran crisis. https://t.co/8wzz9MElfI
Hormuz Oil Flows to Drop to 40% Pre‑war Levels.
This is the most important chart of the day @Kpler projects flows thru the Strait of Hormuz to be at only 40% of pre-war levels a year from now. For all of you who have enjoyed criticizing Peak Oil for the last...
Bloomberg Brent Misleads; Real Oil Near $150, Hits Poor First
$110 Brent exists only on a Bloomberg screen. The real barrel is trading closer to $150. There’s already a shortage—but it’s hitting poorer countries first So stock markets don’t care. 👇 https://t.co/b1WsmkK3e3 #Oil #EnergyCrisis #PhysicalMarket #SupplyShock #EnergySecurity #Hormuz #Commodities #Inflation #GlobalMarkets #EnergyFlows
US Oil Plunges 13% on Iran Headlines Volatility
US oil price action today was nuts today. WTI dropped as much as -13.6% at the days low and looking to end the day down around -6.3% Tthe reactionary and skeptical elements of US-Iran headlines drive this volatility. Second biggest 'lower...
Tiny Price Elasticity Could Boost Canadian Output Dramatically
If the Canadian oil supply elasticity with respect to oil price were even 1/200th of the claimed oil supply elasticity with respect to average carbon pricing costs, we'd be producing 26 million barrels per day by next Tuesday. All numbers...
Lithium Prices Surge; Albemarle Beats Profit Forecast
Lithium prices are marching higher ... @AlbemarleCorp's quarterly profit was more than double Wall Street's expectations. $ALB https://t.co/jtunCdXDQu
Only a COVID‑scale Demand Shock Offsets Hormuz Closure
"only thing that could possibly offset the supply lost due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be another exogenous COVID-level demand destruction event" https://t.co/PPzI5Mt2Ni
WTI Crude Plummets 6% to $77, Possible False Breakout
December WTI crude oil futures slammed 6%... down to $77... was that a false breakout? https://t.co/QzrbXc0P6e
Brent Outpaces S&P 500 in the Past Five Trading Days
Brent crude prompt futures (white) vs S&P 500 futures (blue) over the past 5 trading days https://t.co/EFvg7xDNWL
Brent Spread Returns to Pre‑war Levels, Doom Forecasts Falter
The spread between Dated Brent and the July futures price is back to pre-war levels. The same people who one month ago told us this thing can only go wider are still forecasting the apocalypse. Maybe they're right, but their...
US Fuel Exports Surge 20% to 8.2 Mn Barrels Daily
Last week, the US exported more than 8.2mn barrels a day of refined fuels including gasoline, diesel & jet fuel, an increase of more than 20% from the same period last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. https://t.co/fTwGskrYWH...