Gold and Silver Premiums Stay Resilient on 4/24
Good morning china At open on Friday, 4/24 Premiums remain resilient for gold and silver
PLS Restarts Ngungaju Plant, Signals Rising Spodumene Demand
PLS will restart the Ngungaju plant in July, signaling stronger spodumene demand and broader Pilgangoora growth plans. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/pls-ngungaju-lithium-plant-restart.html
Oil Holds $100; Stocks Rise Despite Hormuz Shutdown
Oil is stuck at $100 even though the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February. Stocks are rallying anyway. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/huz3ZbwJ6f
Guangdong Power Prices Near Double Amid LNG Shortage
Power prices in China's industrial hub have almost doubled due in part due to a natural gas supply crunch 🇨🇳⚡ Spot rates in Guangdong climbed to ~680 yuan/MWh — a three-year high. The region is getting 40% less LNG due to...
US Rig Count Down 34% Signals Looming Oil Shortage
Here is a reminder that well before the war broke out: The number of operating rigs had already fallen by roughly 34% over the prior three years in the most critical US energy basin. That has serious implications for future oil supply,...
Gulf Oil Output Set to Rebound Within Months
Gulf Oil Output Likely To Rebound Within Months After Hormuz Reopening, Goldman Says – RTRS
Ceasefire Holds, Yet Energy Flows Remain Stalled
Good morning Asia, It's Day 56 and the ceasefire is on, but oil and gas (as well as aluminum, helium, sulfur etc) are still not flowing. Crude oil is up now to 105/barrel and markets end the week with trepidation. Asia...
Trump’s Trade Policies Spark Heightened Commodity Demand
My take on @PalisadesRadio on why commodities are HOT: "Trump's tariffs and sanctions have disrupted the global movement of goods. There is risk and uncertainty as to what Trump will do next, and that increases a precautionary demand for commodities of...
2026 Oil Bull Market: A Long Shot From the Start
It’s really hard to overstate just how much of a long shot an oil bull market in 2026 was heading into the year. And, yet
Gasoline Breakout Proves Skeptics Right, Experts Wrong
Watching the 'strait is open told you so the experts were wrong again' people last Friday post the 'breakout' in Gasoline 6 days later https://t.co/GB8PhrUKTX
BC Gas Prices Free of Carbon Tax, Impact Minimal
There is no carbon tax imposed at the pump in BC right now. The impact of the industrial carbon tax on fuel prices is tiny compared to the impact of the removal of consumer prices, so the total tax impact...
Copper Demand Soars, Supply Lags—Prices Must Spike
@MBazilian Director of the @payneinstitute for Public Policy at the @coschoolofmines is a leading authority on supply and critical metals and coauthor of this article. Morgan is 100% right: copper demand from AI, EVs, data centers and global electrification is...
Dallas Fed Survey Shows Low Confidence in Quick SoH
. @DallasFed energy survey update is out and respondents aren't betting the ranch on a quick resolution of the SoH situation. Source: https://t.co/GgBMaWPY6g https://t.co/cgZXdCutmv
Oil Would Need $350 to Trigger 1970s‑style Inflation
My Leading Inflation Index has jumped to 3.95% after the recent surge in oil prices. But even this is not even remotely close to resembling the 1970s. In order to get a 1970s style rate of inflation (10%+) you'd need...
Admin Claims New Iran Terror Premium in Oil Prices
From the @DallasFed special edition of its energy survey: “… The administration’s comment about an “Iran terror premium” existing for decades with oil pricing is laughable. But now the administration has created one where it did not exist before…” — anonymous...
Urea Shortage Resurfaces; Urgent Need for New Fertilizer Solutions
We have a shortage of urea again. The last time I saw this was during the pandemic. We need to come up with better ways to produce fertilizer. Who's working on this?
Oil Output Doubled Since 2008; China Dominates Reserves
Very interesting. This does not mean Brent should be priced in the $200s today. In 2008 US oil production was around 5 million bpd. Today is around 13 million bpd. China’s oil stocks are higher than everyone else’s put together. But...
Brent Flat; Gasoline and Diesel Cracks Surge 20%
“Brent moved just 3 dollars. Gasoline and diesel cracks widened roughly 18 and 22 % over the same week’s window.”
Markets Price Some Risk, Await Future Oil Shock
Markets aren’t ignoring risk. They’ve already priced ~$30 of it. Inventories say $70. Spot says $99. Markets are saying: “that’s enough—for now.” Tomorrow’s price discovery can change everything—up or down. #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/wY2VzEqA6l
Analysts Claim Oil Under‑priced Even with $30 Risk Premium
Why do analysts say that oil is under-priced? $99 Q1 Brent spot priced a $30 risk premium Isn't 40% enough? #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/Yr4EiwJgjj
China's Potential Oil Buying Strike Mirrors Missing Supply
Has anyone thought about the possibility that China is on a full buyers strike in oil markets? That would remove (at least in oil barrels) almost the same barrels that we are currently missing
40% Expect Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization After November
40% of oil and gas firms in the @DallasFed survey expect it'll be November or later before Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal. https://t.co/aNqqqDpuML
Copper's Bullish Surge: Few Portfolios Ready to Profit
Quite the bullish outlook for copper from @FrankCappelleri in his note yesterday. Should this happen, how many portfolios are built to benefit from it you think? I'm guessing not many. https://t.co/3Hio1we0O0
Mild Winter Averted Gas Price Spike Amid Hormuz Closure
Northern hemisphere’s mild winter averted worse gas crisis Global gas prices would have surged much higher as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz if last winter had not been among the warmest on record across the northern...
Prolonged Oil Price Spikes Extend Equity Market Correction
With crude oil prices driving equities right now, let’s take a look at two examples of oil shocks. The 1990 Gulf War took oil prices from $41 to $100 (in today’s dollars) was short-lived and caused only a brief 19% drawdown...
Low Crude Prices Persist Amid Historic Supply Shock
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗲 Making sense of relatively low crude prices through nearly two months of the largest oil supply shock in history https://t.co/1E2OX8hn8t
Oil Prices Reflect Cash Bets, Not Absolute Value
Oil prices are NOT too low @RKelanic Front-month Brent is for late June contracts. It’s neither right nor wrong It’s what people are willing to bet real cash $103 price includes a 20% price urgency risk premium Think about how YOU would price a...
U.S. Shifts Away From Canadian Fertilizer Dependency
Canada is legally part of the US Defense Industrial Base and a massive fertilizer producer. And buying Canadian fertilizer was never a problem for American farmers... Until recently.
US Gas Plant Costs Surge 66% Amid Rising Demand
Costs to build natural gas-fired power plants in the US increased 66% between 2023 and 2025 as developers propose building more projects nationwide to meet rising electricity demand. https://t.co/dO5y2ajRdJ
Oil Futures Backwardation Usually Not Bullish
New free article: Backwardation in Oil Futures is Not Generally Bullish #CL_F Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/NTU7sp9zR6
Platinum Overextended yet Deeply Discounted to Gold
Platinum Is Stretched, But Low vs. Gold Platinum is extremely extended vs. its 60-month moving average, but a primary underpinning may be its steep discount to gold. At about $2,000 an ounce on April 22, my graphic shows platinum around the...
Russia's Fuel Oil Exports to Saudi Arabia Surge 18%
MOSCOW, April 23 (Reuters) - Russia's seaborne exports of fuel oil and vacuum gasoil (VGO) to Saudi Arabia jumped 18% in March from February to 1 million metric tons as soaring oil prices driven by the Iran war reshaped flows,...
Cutting Demand, Not Just Supply, Solves Energy Crisis
Was on @France24_en last night discussing the energy crisis and the scramble for alternatives to Gulf oil. My take: supply substitution alone won't cut it. The only durable answer is fossil fuel demand reduction. https://t.co/JO1XUPfYB2
War's Oil Loss: 1 Bn Barrels Gone Forever
The damage is already locked in, says Vitol CEO Russell Hardy Even if the war ended today, roughly 1bn barrels are gone Flows can restart, but lost production can’t be recovered. The idea that things snap back is energy-blind fantasy
Iran's Oil Still Flowing Despite Blockade, Analysts Misread
Can Iran Keep Pumping? The Blockade’s Impact on Oil Production, Exports, and Storage Analysts missed many facts about Iran's ability to generate revenues (with 4 charts) https://t.co/OARSMvZ93z https://t.co/99em4f6lOY
Gulf Medium Sour Oil Shifts From Discount to Premium
A new oil benchmark: Gulf medium sour. It’s gone from discount to premium. And it’s important. @vaneck_us https://t.co/Q5BQSDvJYQ
US‑Iran Conflict Triggers LPG Shortage Across India
INDIA’s homes and restaurants hit by LPG shortage as a result of U.S.-Iran war: https://t.co/dzqx7u7PLP
Fertilizer Price Surge Triggers Gradual Food Inflation
Rising fertilizer prices are now hitting farmers, and eventually those will translate into higher wholesale food prices which will (assuming higher costs are passed onto consumers) eventually land at grocery stores too. The inflationary impulse doesn’t arrive all at once,...
Presidents' Oil Price Moves During Hormuz Crisis
A brief history of presidential oil price jawbones through the Hormuz crisis. Feel free to add your favourites below. https://t.co/iF0JvVgn0v
Copper Market Tightening Fast, Global Cathode Deficit Looms
Major metals trader Mercuria recently published to their clients feedback from the CESCO copper conference in Chile. We have read it and, in short, the copper market is tightening, fast. Mercuria believe that a global (ex-US) deficit in cathode is coming...
WTI Climbs 11% as US‑UK Spread Flips Dramatically
US oil (WTI) is up 11% on the week again as we move back above 93. Meanwhile, the US-UK (WTI-Brent) spread has swung back from the unusual positive extreme (+2.50, highest since Nov 2008) back to negative extreme (-8.75). Basis...
Gold's Rally Unwinds: Gravestone Doji Signals Hedge Collapse
Gold just printed a gravestone doji. While everyone cheered the ceasefire extension, the hedge trade quietly cracked. +36% in a year. -2.8% in a single session. One chart tells you what's really unwinding. https://t.co/2SqrR1yGxA
Oil CEOs Reject Drill Push, Sell Their Shares
Chris Wright and Doug Burgum got on a call with 200 top oil and gas executives and begged them to drill more. They all said no. High prices won't last. Not a good investment. Instead oil executives are selling their own stock....
US Petroleum Stocks Dip Modestly as Gasoline Falls, Crude Rises
US commercial petroleum inventories declined by only 1.8 MMbbl last week, driven by ongoing declines in gasoline (-4.6) and gasoline (-3.4) but offset by a 1.9 MMbbl build in crude together with inflows of NGLs. https://t.co/A15Ypw5oq9
Chinese Battery Makers Lean on Gas Amid Lithium Crunch
Volt Insight briefing: Chinese battery companies' reliance on natural gas, CATL's mining push, and the lithium squeeze. Read more and sign up to my newsletter here: https://t.co/IUiScW74cK https://t.co/qZWMUx3kbM
Equities Ignore Oil Rise; Watch Key VWAP Levels
Equities markets don't seem to care that oil $CL_F is back above the 🔵anchor from the beginning of the war, not yet at least. Keep an eye on the 🟠⚓️VWAP from the ceasefire announcement and the 🔴VWAP from the YTD high...
Diesel Inventories Plummet, Prices Set to Hit Records
Watch diesel inventories. As I mentioned in various reports, I expect record-low diesel inventories with record prices.
Higher Jet Fuel Costs Will Naturally Reduce Flights
The market will take care of the jetfuel scarcities itself in Europe for example. When flight prices are up 2-3x for the summer season, fewer people will fly. It is as simple as that.
Brent Futures Gap Collapsed, Market Silence Prevails
The thing about markets is that stuff only gets talked about when it's apocalyptic. The gap between Dated Brent and futures has collapsed, so no one talks about it anymore. Sign up as a paying subscriber for my daily posts...
Lithium Deficit Persists Until 2035, Requires Massive Investment
Canaccord expects lithium markets to slip into deficit this year and remain there until at least 2035, calls for "significant investment in new supply" https://t.co/folUunEI4w