Rising Money Supply Fuels Precious Metals Surge and Inflation
The U.S. and global money supply is growing at an alarming rate, driving the precious metals bull market and contributing to persistently high inflation.
Oil Pullback Ends Trade Narrative, Sparks Low‑Price Speculation
When a trade suffers the kind of pullback oil has now seen, it's over. A trade is just a story. It needs excitement and momentum. That's out the window and has been replaced by people asking how low oil prices...
EIA Predicts Hormuz Crisis Will Vanish by Fall
Hormuz Crisis: Gone by Spring, Fixed by Fall says EIA “It’s going to disappear. "One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear” #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/SIU7yJyfMK
UK to Lower Green Power Costs by Cutting Gas Exposure
The UK will seek to speed up efforts to cut the costs of green electricity by reducing exposure to more-expensive gas https://t.co/LNvTUk7yXd
EIA's 2027 Oil Glut Forecast Is Pure Fantasy
Independent FED? How about an independent EIA? EIA Sees an oil glut in 2027 The Year Everything Magically Normalizes Brent $68 In a World That Doesn’t Exist OUTRAGEOUSLY ENERGY BLIND #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/EEhRs5OdkI
Oil Surge Pushes Brazil Real Toward 4.50/USD
We're on our way to $/BRL 4.50. Oil prices aren't going to fall back to pre-war levels quickly, which lifts Brazil's terms of trade and the Real. I'm moving my posts behind a paywall in coming months. Please consider subscribing...
California’s Oil Decline Forces Costly Imports and Shortages
For a mix of reasons, California has decimated its local oil production. As a result, it’s now producing only about 300,000 barrels a day. But as the economy grows and the population expands, oil demand continues to rise. The state...
Extended Ceasefire Leaves 182M Barrels Off Market
Important to remember that, with 13 MMbpd in oil production still shut-in across the Gulf, a two week ceasefire extension with no change to the status of Hormuz means another 182 million barrels lost to the market. *Poof* Sooner or later that's...
Iran Risk Unpriced Amid High Oil, Demand Lag Threatens
Iran risk is not priced in from elevated oil prices or supply shocks. @HFI_Research wrote about lags that trigger potential demand hit if prolonged.
US
🇺🇸U.S. winter wheat conditions fell below all trade estimates to 30% good/excellent. That's approaching 2022 & 2023, among the lowest scoring years in recent memory. Despite some wet weather, U.S. corn & bean planting pace met expectations and remain ahead of...
Exporting Surplus Won’t Lower Pump Prices
Exporting the zero excess we have is not going to be helping prices at the pump.
Oil Flows Through Hormuz Won’t Normalize Until July
Rystad Energy says it will take until July for roughly normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz "Our analysis shows that it would take until July for oil flows to normalize to some 80-90% of pre-war production levels, and another 1-2...
Stocks Must Remain Strong to Shield Crude From Gas Slide
Stocks May Need to Stay Up for Crude Oil Not to Follow US Natural Gas Down https://t.co/TLsVGd92SK #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence
Oil Drops Post‑war, Gasoline Lagging Behind, Says Weatherall
"Oil prices have fallen from their peak after weeks of war have choked off the Persian Gulf, but gasoline prices are likely to descend more slowly. One of the reasons is Alex Weatherall." Very good lede and story @lydiadepillis https://t.co/xBuWzYaRt5
War Premium Mispriced Both Ways, Market Clings to Wrong Script
The war premium trade is mispriced in BOTH directions. US seized an Iranian ship Sunday night. Ceasefire expires tomorrow. WTI jumped 5.5% to $88. And yet defense stocks are RED today — LMT -1.3%, RTX -0.3%, NOC -0.8%. The market is still...
Wheat Exports Surpass USDA Target Pace by 40M Bushels
Marketing year to date #wheat export shipments exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 40 million bushels, versus 44 million bushels the previous week. The wheat marketing year ends on May 31. #oatt
Hormuz Strait Unreliable, Threatening 20% Global LNG Supply
IEA'S BIROL: HORMUZ STRAIT LOST ITS STATUS AS RELIABLE About 20% of global LNG supply is locked behind the strait
US‑China Stockpiling Fuels Copper Price Surge
The entire copper industry has just returned from last week’s leading copper conference in Chile (CESCO), with participants, including the world’s largest copper traders, even more bullish that all-time-high copper prices could be tested over the coming weeks. It’s become...
US Oil Slides to Intraday Low Near $87
JUST IN: US oil shed its earlier advances and slid to intraday lows near $87 a barrel.
China Weaponizes Rare‑earth Magnets Amid US‑Japan Tensions
China. Reduces rare earth magnet exports to US and Japan. Why? A topic for Xi-Trump meeting. Counter oil supply drop from Iran? What else may China do?
Silver's Surge Over Gold Signals Looming Macro Shift
Silver at $80.78 as of April 17 — up 6.5% on the week, outpacing gold. Silver is simultaneously a monetary metal and an industrial metal. When it beats gold by this margin, the market is pricing both safe-haven demand and real...
Silver Outpaces Gold, Hinting At
$SLV surged 6.5% in a week to $80.78 — outperforming $GLD. Silver has BOTH the monetary metal bid AND industrial demand tailwinds. When silver outperforms gold this aggressively, it's usually telling you something about where the economy is heading. https://t.co/SPn2igYPIv
Latin America Markets Surge on Expected Iran Peace, High Oil
At last week's IMF/WB meetings, markets were as bullish as I can remember on Latin America. They're trading an end to the war with Iran and oil prices staying elevated for a while, all of which benefits the region's oil...
Iran Conflict Threatens Airline Jet Fuel Supply
Re-up! #Airlines & the Iran conflict - a perfect storm as carriers face jet fuel squeeze? #avgeek #airlines #StraitofHormuz #Iran #oil https://t.co/VocDTjCLlD https://t.co/wd3hlohdlT
Funds Dump Brent as US‑Iran Talks Spur Price Dip Expectations
Brent sees fund sales as diplomacy intensifies Investors realised profits from bullish long positions and started to accumulate bearish short ones last week, anticipating a further fall in Brent prices as the United States and Iran conducted face-to-face talks to find...
China's Q1 Grain Imports Rebound, yet Lag Recent Highs
🇨🇳China’s Q1 2026 grain imports rebounded sharply on the year but remained below the bigger volumes seen in recent years. Still, it's a supportive trend for exporters. However, soybean and pork imports weren't quite as robust as in Q1 2025. https://t.co/NEI8MRwGDR
Oil's 10% Crash Signals Deflationary Shock
$CL_F crashed 10% in a single session — April 17. WTI fell to $84, down from a $110 peak. One day. 10%. Oil. That's not noise — that's a deflationary impulse hitting the macro backdrop at full speed. https://t.co/ju4e7ZBacD
Closed Strait Triggers Global Supply Shortages and Food Price Surge
The economic impact of a closed Strait increases. Time delay. Supply shortages. Prices. Helium? Sulfur? Fertilizer—as planting season begins? Then it will be food scarcity and prices. More.
Weak Corn, Soybean Markets Threaten Crude's $100 Barrier
Crude Breaks Stuff Above $100; $80 Initial Support Crude oil's red 2Q candle to April 17 may have a greater tendency to deepen if corn and soybeans are guides. My graphic highlights a big difference from the last three times WTI...
Soybeans May Touch $12.39, But $9 Likely
$12.39 Soybeans Could Mark 2026 High Soybeans have been between $9.36-$12.39 a bushel since the start of 2024, recently revisiting the upper end due to the Iran war. Sustaining above $12 may require an unlikely combination of WTI crude oil staying...
Singapore Jet Fuel Doubles, Squeezing Un‑hedged Airlines
SINGAPORE jet fuel prices have doubled to an average around $166 per barrel so far in April compared with $82 in January. Fuel is one of the three largest costs for passenger airlines (together with crew labour and capital) so...
Silver Hits Critical Juncture—Here’s Why It Matters
Silver Price Has Reached a CRITICAL Time ...here's why https://t.co/wSo2jfQeoX [VIDEO] #silver #silverprice My thanks to Manuel Blay @TheDowTheory for the interview.
Colombian Factories Shift to Cheaper Fossil Fuels Amid Iran War
Colombia's factories are ditching gas in favor of cheaper fossil fuels. The Iran war is accelerating the trend https://t.co/HRQFpR14iQ
North America Gains Urea Cost Edge Amid Global Gas Divergence
This chart underpins my positioning in North American nitrogen fertiliser producers. Urea supply has tightened following a sharp drop in exports from the Gulf. As urea production is highly sensitive to NatGas costs, the divergence in regional gas prices is...
UAE Threatens Shift From Petrodollar to Yuan
💥JUST IN The UAE has told the U.S. that if it runs short of U.S. dollars, it will be forced to use Chinese yuan or other currencies for oil sales and transactions. The petrodollar is at risk. https://t.co/ENEUL9x7LY
Geography Drives Oil Price Gaps, Splits Asset Returns
Oil: The have and have not. What's the price of crude in North America? Very cheap, as low as 72.7. What's the price in Sri Lanka, well, very expensive. Gas is the same story. So the oil market and pricing...
Sherritt Halts Cuba Nickel-Cobalt Production, Threatening 2026 Supply
Sherritt will pause Moa nickel-cobalt mining in Cuba over fuel shortages, raising new 2026 supply concerns. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/sherritt-moa-nickel-cobalt-pause-raises.html
Doubting a Quick Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Is it time to abandon hope the Strait of Hormuz will open soon? https://t.co/5BRLiEg2Tm @ClydeCommods
CME Delay Hints at Deeper Market Liquidity Concerns
Thanks @Babyfish_TG I watch prices, but I’m not a trader—& never claimed to be. I'm a big picture guy If CME is delayed, that’s interesting Could be anything from a system hiccup to a liquidity crisis Speculating on a Sunday night is about as...
NYMEX Oil Futures Quotes Delayed After Globex Restart
Yeah @OuncesApp "Almost 5 hours since Globex trading resumed and NYMEX still isn’t broadcasting oil futures quotes and volumes" Seems to be bullshit claim by @DarioCpx Or maybe there was some delay or glitch but it's up now. https://t.co/1Lr9enzoRB
Oil Spike Highlights Balance‑of‑Payments Shock Over Dollar
With oil rising again (alas), my Odd Lots episode from last week gains new relevance -- tis at least as much about the balance of payments impact of an oil shock as about the dollar https://t.co/JtgH1nPC0z
Three LNG Shipments Stalled, Pakistan Faces Heat‑driven Blackouts
There are at least *three LNG shipments* stuck in the Persian Gulf that are supposed to go to Pakistan, according to ship-tracking data 🇵🇰🚢 Pakistan hasn't received an LNG shipment in over a month due to the Hormuz closure. That risks...
Fertilizer Costs Surge 53%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since May 2022, rising 53% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/XaN1isYjSt
Iranians May Be Behind Pre‑War Crude Trades, Not Washington
Can you imagine if its actually the Iranians........ Everyone thinks it's Washington insiders trading Crude Oil right before significant price moving news connected to the war with Iran and Strait of Hormuz.
China’s Oil Stockpile Fuels Profit Amid Global Price Surge
In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices...
Hormuz Tensions Lock Gas Prices Through 2027
Strait of Hormuz uncertainty isn't just pushing up today's gas prices — it's lifting futures through 2027 and beyond. The energy secretary's optimism may already be outdated. Until we get resolution, expensive gas isn't going anywhere soon. https://t.co/NZ4lVvoG5p
Soy Crush Pace Signals Full-Year Grain Outlook
🌾Grain markets have many moving parts right now and it's not easy to keep up. My latest newsletters covered: ▪️U.S. soy crush and what pace says about full-year prospects ▪️Funds' under-the-radar move in CBOT corn ▪️El Nino & U.S. corn Access the full analysis...
European Gas Futures Jump 11% Despite Lower Overall Prices
European natural gas futures rise 11% after Iran closed Hormuz (again) 📈📈 No LNG shipment has been exported from the region since the war in Iran began in late-Feb Still, prices are down from the highs last month. This is partly due...
Oil Spikes 6.5% Amid Iran‑U.S. Ship Attacks
Oil prices jump 6.5% after Iran and U.S. attack ships as tensions escalate over Strait of Hormuz: https://t.co/aZcReIm6Eb
Oil Spikes, Stocks Tumble Amid Weekend Escalations
JUST IN: Oil prices surged as stocks plunged after a weekend of escalations, signaling another Green Dot Sunday.