NAB Calls June RBA Hike to 4.60% as Middle East Inflation Compounds Domestic Pressures
NAB has upgraded its Reserve Bank of Australia outlook, now expecting a June cash‑rate increase to 4.60%, up from the 4.35% set in May. The bank cites a dual‑inflation shock—persistent domestic capacity constraints and a second‑round price impact from the Middle‑East oil crisis—as justification for further tightening. Governor Michele Bullock’s rejection of a “wait‑and‑watch” stance reinforced NAB’s view that the RBA cannot delay action. Despite the hawkish call, NAB still projects two rate cuts in the second half of 2027 as growth eases.
South Korea’s Steps to Limit Inflation Increases Paying Off — so Far
South Korea’s consumer‑price inflation rose to 2.6% YoY in April, driven mainly by a 21.9% jump in oil prices. Government interventions—food vouchers, a gasoline‑price cap and frozen utility rates—softened food and energy price pressures, keeping core inflation at 2.2% for...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8562 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8160)
The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8562, outpacing the Reuters estimate of 6.8160. This 40‑basis‑point appreciation is the strongest yuan level since March 24, 2023, and comes as China reopens after an extra‑long holiday. The PBOC allows...
Indonesia Tightens Rule on FX Purchases After Rupiah Hit New Record Low
Indonesia’s central bank announced stricter rules on cash foreign‑exchange purchases, halving the limit from $50,000 to $25,000. The move follows a sharp depreciation of the rupiah, which hit a record low of 17,443 per U.S. dollar. Bank Indonesia Governor Perry...
Over 98% of Stablecoins Are Dollar Backed. That’s Good for the U.S.—until It’s Not
Stablecoins are now overwhelmingly dollar‑denominated, with more than 98% of supply pegged to the greenback. Industry leaders such as Visa and Stripe are integrating these tokens, accelerating global use of U.S. dollars for payments and savings. Experts say this cements...
Dollar Softens as Middle East Ceasefire Holds
The U.S. dollar slipped modestly on Tuesday as markets absorbed a tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, easing geopolitical risk. The dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.44, while the euro and sterling edged higher. The Japanese yen stayed...
Riksbank Likely to Hold but Hawkish Risks Are Growing
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% during the May 7 meeting, but analysts see a growing hawkish tilt as inflation risks rise. March’s CPIF inflation eased to 1.6% thanks to a sharp drop in...
Preserving Inflation Targeting Framework’s Core Architecture Is a Policy Choice of Consequence: RBI Dy Guv Gupta
The Reserve Bank of India has renewed its inflation‑targeting framework, keeping a 4 percent headline CPI goal with a ±2 percent tolerance band through March 2031. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said the decision provides predictability amid geopolitical tensions, supply‑chain shocks and volatile energy...
National Bank of Poland Preview: Rates on Hold for Now with a Hawkish Tilt Likely
Poland’s National Bank (NBP) is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% after April CPI rose to 3.2% year‑on‑year, driven by stronger core inflation, and March activity outperformed forecasts. While the rate pause reflects caution, the Monetary Policy Council...
Chang Yong Rhee: Farewell Address
In his farewell address, Governor Chang Yong Rhee reflected on a turbulent four‑year tenure marked by rapid global inflation, a sharp rise in the Bank of Korea’s base rate to 3.5%, and a series of external shocks—from the Russia‑Ukraine war...
Watch: How Two-Way Risks Are Dividing the Fed’s Policy Outlook
The Federal Reserve remains split over its future rate path as it grapples with two‑way risks: stubborn inflation and the potential for an energy price shock. While wage growth and overall economic activity are slowing, price pressures stay above target,...
Ayman M Al-Sayari: Statement - International Monetary and Financial Committee
Ayman M. Al‑Sayari warned that the war in the Middle East is a material test for the global economy and the multilateral system, raising the risk of a 1970s‑style stagflation scenario. He highlighted the IMF’s reliance on credible surveillance, lending...
Santiago Bausili: Finance, Economics and Investments
Argentina’s central bank says the stabilization program launched at the end of 2023 is delivering lower inflation expectations, a stable peso and record reserve purchases. Interest rates and volatility have fallen, and early signs of lending and economic activity are...
Aleš Michl: Forever Hawkish
Aleš Michl became governor of the Czech National Bank in July 2022 when inflation was 17.5%, peaking at 18% two months later. By February 2024 the bank achieved its 2% target, becoming one of Europe’s first to do so, and...
Lesetja Kganyago: Supply Shocks, Monetary Policy and the 3% Target
South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the country entered the current supply‑shock environment already at its newly adopted 3% inflation target, allowing the central bank to keep its policy stance calibrated. He highlighted that recent reforms—such as exiting...
John C Williams: There Is No Try
John C. Williams told the Cynosure Group that the Federal Reserve is holding the federal‑funds target range at 3.5%‑3.75% as it navigates a mix of resilient growth and heightened uncertainty. Real GDP is expected to expand about 2%‑2.25% this year...
Chiara Scotti: Digital Money and the Architecture of Trust
Chiara Scotti, speaking at a Banca d'Italia workshop co‑hosted with the ECB, emphasized that trust—not intrinsic value—underpins all forms of money. She warned that the rise of central‑bank digital currencies, stablecoins and tokenized deposits shifts focus from technology to the...
Japan Has Two More Windows for Yen Intervention by IMF Rules
Japan can only conduct two more three‑day foreign‑exchange interventions by November without breaching IMF guidelines that define a free‑floating yen regime. The finance ministry clarified that each three‑day episode counts as a single operation, and exceeding three interventions in six...
Correspondence: Asset Purchase Facility (APF) Ceiling, May 2026
On 5 May 2026 the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England exchanged letters confirming a reduction in the maximum authorised size of the Asset Purchase Facility (APF). The move follows a framework set...
Reserve Bank of Australia Delivers Decisive Hike, Signals Balanced Path Ahead
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, in line with market expectations. Eight of nine board members backed the move, marking a more decisive stance than the previous split vote. Simultaneously, the...
Why RBI Wants to Keep India's Gold at Home
The Reserve Bank of India repatriated more than 100 tonnes of gold in the six months to March, boosting domestic gold holdings to 680 tonnes, which now represent about 17% of its $698.5 billion total reserves. The gold share in RBI’s portfolio has...
India Among Most Resilient as Global Shocks Test Emerging Markets: Moody’s Ratings
Moody’s Ratings finds that India and Thailand have emerged as the most resilient large emerging markets amid a series of global shocks since 2020. Clear monetary policy frameworks, anchored inflation expectations and flexible exchange rates helped these economies absorb stress...
FX Daily: It’s Good to Be Hawkish
Central banks in commodity‑exporting economies are tightening as oil prices stay high, with the Reserve Bank of Australia lifting its policy rate to 4.35% and Norges Bank expected to push rates to 4.25%. The Fed’s latest hawkish meeting has markets...
Australia Hikes Rates Again and Warns Inflation Will Stay Higher for Longer
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.35%, matching the December 2024 peak and marking a third consecutive hike. The move reflects stubborn inflation, which climbed to 4.6% in March and remains above the 2‑3% target range....
Europe Is Debating a Digital Euro But Progress Is Slow
The European Central Bank, led by Christine Lagarde, is pushing for a digital euro but expects the first issuance no earlier than 2029. The initiative is framed as a geopolitical move to secure payment‑system sovereignty and reduce reliance on U.S....
Dollar Rises as US-Iran Ceasefire Comes Under Strain, Markets Brace for Escalation Without Panic
The U.S. dollar is gaining as the fragile U.S.–Iran cease‑fire shows signs of breaking. Iran expanded the conflict by striking the Fujairah Petroleum Zone in the United Arab Emirates, while the U.S. Navy reported sinking seven Iranian vessels in the...
RBA Risks a Recession but Feels There's Nothing Else It Can Do
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate to 4.35%, marking its third increase this year as it battles persistent inflation and downgraded growth outlooks. In its latest Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA projects GDP will stall at...
RBA Lifts Interest Rates for Third Time Since February
RBA Hikes Interest Rates: “It Is a Very Tough Time”
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate to 4.35% on May 5, marking its third consecutive hike this year after a sharp jump in headline inflation. Governor Michele Bullock warned that Australia faces a “very tough time” as high inflation,...
Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, marking the fourth increase this year. The decision was driven by a resurgence of inflation, fueled by higher fuel and commodity prices...
IMF Says Worst-Case Global Economy Warning Is Now the Working Assumption - Oil Shock Hit
The International Monetary Fund has dropped its mild slowdown baseline and moved to an adverse scenario, warning that a prolonged Middle East conflict could keep oil at $125 a barrel through 2027. Georgieva said this price path would generate a...
Powell Out
The Financial Times has assembled a dedicated Monetary Policy Radar team to track global central‑bank actions and forecast rate moves. Chris Giles, the veteran economics commentator, leads the editorial side after 19 years at the FT. Andrew Whiffin, a CFA‑journalist...
Decisions Taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in Addition to Decisions Setting Interest Rates)
On 4 May 2026 the European Central Bank Governing Council released its 2025 Annual Report and enacted a suite of policy updates. It simplified excess‑reserve remuneration by aligning it with the deposit‑facility rate effective 17 June 2026, and approved a comprehensive payments strategy to...
Debunked Strike, Real War Risk: Dollar Rallies on Panic Hedge as Hormuz Tensions Rise
A false headline claiming Iranian missiles struck a U.S. Navy ship near the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude to about $110 per barrel and triggered a rapid rush into the dollar as a panic hedge. U.S. Central Command quickly...
Yen Surges to the High 155-Range Against Dollar in Thin Holiday Trading
The Japanese yen surged to the high‑155 per‑dollar range on Monday, its strongest level since the previous Friday. The rally followed a period where the currency was trading near ¥157.20 to the dollar. The move unfolded during a thin holiday‑trading...
ECB Inflation Survey Points to Sharp Surge in Prices
The European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters shows inflation expectations jumping to 2.7% in 2024, up from 1.8% previously, driven by higher energy prices. Growth forecasts were trimmed to 1% for 2026. Forecasters anticipate inflation easing to 2.1% in...
Luis De Guindos: Presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2025 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the...
Luis de Guindos, the ECB Vice‑President, presented the 2025 Annual Report to the European Parliament, noting his mandate ends later this month. The report shows euro‑area GDP grew 1.4% while inflation averaged 2.1%, prompting a 100‑basis‑point cut to the deposit‑facility rate,...
US Dollar Credit Supply: Supply Continues at Strong Levels
U.S. corporate dollar bond issuance stayed robust in April, reaching $90.5 bn, roughly double the $47 bn issued a year earlier but down from March’s record $178 bn. The technology, media and telecom (TMT) segment dominated, contributing $53.9 bn or about 60% of the...
UAE Says It Is Discussing Currency Swap Line with US
The United Arab Emirates is in talks with the United States to establish a central‑bank currency swap line, a facility currently reserved for an elite group of five major economies. Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi emphasized that the arrangement would support...
Rupee Sinks to Fresh Closing Low of 95.08 Against USD on NDF Maturities, Firm Crude
The Indian rupee fell to a fresh closing low of 95.0875 per U.S. dollar, its weakest on record, as maturing non‑deliverable forward (NDF) contracts and rising oil prices weighed on the currency. The decline of 0.18% came amid heightened dollar...
Turkey’s April Inflation Rises More than Expected
Turkey’s consumer price index jumped 4.1% month‑on‑month in April, pushing annual inflation to 32.4%, well above the Central Bank’s 16% target. The surge was led by higher food, housing and transportation costs, while core CPI rose 3.5% MoM to a...
Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the Second Quarter of 2026
The European Central Bank’s second‑quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters shows headline HICP inflation expectations nudged up to 2.7% for 2026 and core inflation to 2.2% for the near term, while longer‑term rates remain at 2.0%. Real GDP growth expectations...
Why Strong NFP May Not Save the Dollar This Week
The US dollar entered the week on a soft footing, and even a robust April non‑farm payroll (NFP) report may not revive its strength. Markets are pricing a scenario where solid jobs data fuels risk‑on sentiment, pushing capital into equities...
Quantifying the Impact of the Iran War on US Inflation
The authors combine a calibrated DSGE model of the global oil market with a monthly structural VAR to estimate how the 2026 Iran war’s oil‑supply shock could affect U.S. inflation. A 15 % shortfall lasting one quarter pushes WTI crude to...
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De-Dollarization: What Is It, and Is It Happening?
De‑dollarization describes the gradual reduction of the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency. The IMF reports the dollar’s share of allocated reserves fell to about 57% in Q4 2025, down from over 70% in 2001. China’s renminbi, gold...
Weakening Peso
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% as oil prices surged past $120 per barrel amid a renewed Hormuz blockade. The central bank aims to curb second‑round inflation and stabilize a peso...
Iran Has Collected a ‘Pittance’ of Less than $1.3 Million in Hormuz Tolls, Bessent Says, as Currency Dives to Fresh...
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran has collected less than $1.3 million in tolls for ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, a fraction of its pre‑war daily oil earnings. At the same time, Iran’s rial slid to a fresh record...
FX Week in Review: Admirals License Revoked, Capital Index Acquiror, Broker Revenue Declines – and Records at Others
FX week saw mixed fortunes across the retail forex and CFD sector. Admiral Markets voluntarily surrendered its Estonian investment‑firm license as part of a broader group restructuring, while Capital Index changed hands to Sun Siyuan ahead of a rebrand to Vantos...
Japan Has Moved to Save the Yen Again, and Bitcoin Traders May Pay the Price
Japan intervened with roughly $35 bn of yen purchases, pulling the dollar down about 3% and moving USD/JPY from a peak of 160.7 to 155.5 – the largest yen‑support action in almost two years. The Bank of Japan kept its policy...
Japan Just Put a ‘Band-Aid’ on the Yen. Why High Oil Prices Could Soon Ri...
Japan’s finance ministry and the Bank of Japan launched an estimated $35 billion currency intervention on Thursday, the first of its size in two years, to halt the yen’s slide toward a 40‑year low. The yen rallied 2.4% to settle at...