Trump Claims Kharg Island Military Targets Destroyed, Oil Untouched
Trump says military targets on Kharg island obliterated. Oil infrastructure not touched - for now. https://t.co/96z56gVY1g
US Hits Kharg Island, Iran’s Shipping Interference Pivotal
US took out military targets on Iran’s important Kharg Island. Left oil infrastructure. IF Iran stops interfering with the flow of ships. Game changer?
KC-135 Sightings Highlight OPSEC Lapses in Signal Chat
Earlier today someone was like “hey there’s a bunch of KC-135s in the area. Something’s afoot” and that seems bad for OPSEC. Then again, there was that Signal chat
White House Admits Plan: Bomb Kharg Island Amid Hormuz Closure
OK, I suppose we should admit the White House was right, and, all along, they did have a plan to deal with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bomb Kharg Island.
Trump Claims Indefinite Iran War, Says U.S. Ahead
Trump's timeline for the #Iran war: "As long as is necessary..." "Militarily, we're WAY ahead of schedule..."
Trump Claims He Ordered Strikes on Iran's Oil Hub
Trump says he has directed strikes on Iran's Kharg Island, an oil hub. There has been widespread speculation it could be targeted for strikes, U.S. seizure or both. https://t.co/qO3H1olaiI
Iran War Costs $2 B Daily, Claiming American Lives
This war with Iran is already costing nearly $2B a day and is continuing to take more American lives. Find my take on Iran in my latest substack, “This Time Is Different”: https://bit.ly/SimplyPutSubstack
Canada’s New Arctic Strategy Mirrors Past Promises
Canada Launches New Arctic Strategy That Looks A Lot Like the Old One Prof Rob Huebert, @UCalgary, says Trudeau and Harper promised many of the same things MarkJCarney is now promising. Who will deliver? #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/gGxKucgI0Rc
Proposed Military Capture of Tunbs Islands for UAE
For the record, I suggested sending troops to capture the Greater and Lesser Tunbs Islands and Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz and then turn them over to the UAE — on March 5! @ACGlobalEnergy #oil #iran
Iran's Deterrence Strategy: Targeting Regional Energy Infrastructure
My take on Iran’s war strategy in @RFERL: “Iran’s strategy is deterrence. It cannot match US-Israeli firepower, but it can raise the cost of the war. That means retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure and other economic targets across the region.” https://t.co/w5DylP6XRN
Merz Warns of Endless War without Unified Strategy
German Chancellor Merz on the Israeli-US war against Iran: “What concerns us most is that there is clearly no common plan for bringing this war to a swift and convincing conclusion. We have no interest in an endless war.” MERZ SOUNDS LIKE...
US Maritime Crisis Spurs Bipartisan Push for Lean Dual‑Use Ships
1/ The US maritime base is in crisis A new Whitehouse Maritime Action Plan (MAP) highlights a rare bipartisan truth: rebuilding shipbuilding capacity is natsec priority. the core debate? expensive battleships vs. lean fast dual-use vessels https://t.co/ornn1pqNVC
Analysts Favor Deterrence Over Costly, Unpredictable War
Generally speaking, serious analysts are sober about the cost, unpredictability, and hard-to-anticipate second-order effects of military action, as well as the relatively successful track record of deterrence in mitigating risks from proliferation.
Epic Fury's Iran Air Campaign: Likely Success?
"Does this air campaign have any chance of success?" ED HUNT assesses the strategic goals of #EpicFury against #Iran compared to other conflicts https://t.co/I4gSRmWewx https://t.co/1Pobq86Dk2
FBI Warns of Potential Ship‑launched Armed Drones
Drone Attacks On U.S. From The Sea Are A Known Possibility An FBI alert about the possibility of armed drones launched from a ship reflects real dangers even if the immediate threat is not credible. https://t.co/CbwY1nAmJR
Americans Reject Ground Troops in Any Iran War
americans do not want—and did not vote for—boots on the ground in a war with iran.
US Marines Deploy to Iran; Conflict and Economic Turmoil Persist
two weeks before us marine expeditionary force—some 2,500 marines—now being deployed to iran arrives in the mideast. this war (and global economic disruption) isn’t over soon.
Deploying Marines on a Burning Island Near Iran Is Foolish
"What if we put 2500 Marines on a flammable island really close to Iran? Nothing bad, right?"
Delayed US Naval Escorts Spark Doubts over Hormuz Strategy
It is 5,000 miles from Japan to the Strait of Hormuz. Even if the ships left early and conduct a high transit speed that is 10 to 14 days to get to the scene. If this is going...
Absurd “Shoes vs Boots” Line Exposes Trump’s Rhetoric
“We need shoes on the ground in Iran, not boots on the ground.” Says Trump 1.0 Secretary of Defense It would take me a week to construct a take that dumb. How does he do it? https://t.co/ctsBNu0SbD
Ukraine Bans Export of Shahed Interceptor Drones
Ukrainian Companies Prohibited From Exporting Shahed Interceptor Drones Waves of Iranian Shahed drone attacks across the Middle East have spurred widespread interest in Ukrainian interceptors. https://t.co/HIO47E6I2c
Iran's Real Power: Controlling the Strait of Hormuz
My take on Iran's biggest advantage in the war: "The US & Israel are making mincemeat out of Iran, but Iranians still hold their key card: the Strait of Hormuz, which remains shut down. A great friend in Dubai said he...
US Deploys AI for Warfare, Iran Becomes Test Ground
The US turned to Claude and other artificial intelligence systems to help shape its vision for AI warfare. In Iran that strategy is unfolding in real time An excerpt from the coming book Project Maven shows how the US enlisted...
Sensofusion Unveils Portable Drone Factory in Shipping Container
Sensofusion has today announced the Tactical Drone Factory: a fully self-contained interceptor drone manufacturing facility built inside a standard shipping container. Shipping worldwide in May (export restrictions apply). https://t.co/h8FszYdeAo https://t.co/RgZ7xuuGiT
Pentagon's $11B Iran War Figure Grossly Understates True Cost
In the last week alone, the Pentagon estimates that the US spent $11 BILLION on the Iran war. WARNING: Pentagon estimates are always fiction and way below the real cost. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/49t33aGlwH
Trump Administration Winged War Amid Chaos, Oil Surge
Two weeks into the US-Iran war, CENTCOM has struck 6,000 targets, Hormuz is closed, oil is at $100 a barrel, the regime hasn’t fallen, and 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium sit somewhere under rubble. In a new show with @shashj,...
US Deploys Marine Task Force for Limited Middle East Operations
Can confirm this news, per two U.S. officials familiar with the matter. This will put a Marine air-ground task force in the Middle East, along with three amphibious warships. That's not enough for a major invasion. But the unit, in...
US Injuries From Iran Strikes Occur Across Gulf, Officials Vague
Asked this morning about U.S. military injuries against Iran, neither Secretary Hegseth nor Gen. Caine shared great fidelity. But Caine did say they have occurred "in Kuwait, Jordan, down across the southern flank a little bit, a variety of places, most...
Failed Execution Left Strait Open, only Weapons Remain
"We had a plan. We just didn't execute it and that is why the Strait is totally open except for the missiles, explosive UUVs, and maybe some mines."
Assessing Operation Epic Fury's Success in Securing Hormuz Traffic
I joined @benshapiro this morning to discuss how Operation Epic Fury is going, are we achieving our objectives, will we be able to ensure traffic in the Straights of Hormuz?
Iran Under Heavy Assault, Conflict Duration Uncertain
"Iran is clearly being pummelled... However at what rate – hence conflict timeframe – remains unclear." #Iranwar #Iran #defence #avgeek https://t.co/qhtkN3j2VB https://t.co/XSGoJdQlBO
Prediction Markets See Two‑thirds Chance US Troops Deployed by Year‑end
Prediction markets are pricing in 2/3rds chance that U.S. boots are on the ground by the end of the year https://t.co/2kcrfgNU6v
Navy’s Capability Outpaces Capacity, Leaving Few Ready Ships
Hegseth says the Navy is performing better than expected. He says the Navy had a comprehensive plan for the Strait of Hormuz. He says we have the best warships in the world. He says we have enough munitions. All of that can be true. And...
Chinese AI Turns Commercial Satellite Data Into Intelligence
Chinese AI Startup Watching US Military Assets in Middle East From Space So are a lot of actors... “The value of MizarVision’s output is not the raw satellite image. Any government can purchase commercial satellite passes. The value is the AI...
Gold Not Sold, Gains Funding Rearmament Plan
Lots of very misplaced reporting and speculation about Glapinski's gold "sale" for rearmanent plan. It's not a sale. Latest indications are it's about using the unrealised gains on the gold they bought to fund a rearmament program. The whole back...
ATACMS Missile Sinks Iranian Submarine, Cripples Navy
Iranian Submarine Sunk By ATACMS Short Range Ballistic Missile ATACMS and PrSM ballistic missiles have played a key role in destroying Iran's Navy from afar. https://t.co/8ejVX64Vod
Mearsheimer: US War in Iran Faltering, Trump Stuck
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on the war in Iran: “It’s quite clear that the war is not going well for the United States… and the problem that [Trump] faces is he can’t find an off-ramp.” https://t.co/7LkbA4GAp1
Small Marine Deployment Sparks Uncontrolled Escalation Risk
"The camel's nose under the tent"? Client just summed Hegseth sending 5000 marines to the Trump-Netanyahu War on Iran: a modest initial action that will inevitably lead to much larger, more serious, and uncontrollable consequences. Let’s face it: Trump trapped US - as...
MEU Deploys to Middle East, Boosting Epic Fury Flexibility
Marine Expeditionary Unit Deploying To The Middle East: Report The flotilla of Navy ships with Marines and their vehicles packed aboard will bring a very flexible set of capabilities to Operation Epic Fury. Updating live: https://t.co/QMxzIHgxZk
USAF Mobility Crews Finally Gain Situational Awareness Momentum
Far too early to say what happened as the investigation plays out. But something to watch is how USAF's mobility crews have been screaming for improved situational awareness on the bulk of its tankers and airlifters and it's finally getting...
Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
US‑Israeli Strikes Target Iran’s Regime Stability over Economy
My take on infrastructure attacks on Iran in @RFERL: “The aim of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran’s economic and energy infrastructure is not primarily economic; it's strategic. The goal is to weaken Iran to the point of regime collapse or fragmentation." https://t.co/w5DylP6q2f
Guardian ISR Constellation to Lead Missile Defense, Launches 2027
.@Leonardo_live: Guardian ISR constellation a centerpiece of missile-defense dome; launches start 2027/28; space division CAGR >20% 2026-2030. @telespazio @thalesgroup @AirbusSpace @defis_eu @NATO.https://t.co/2TbiKQFFQ5 https://t.co/Z2WRU6VQv9
Chinese‑linked AI Poised to Surveil U.S. Battlefields
“Companies tied to the CCP are turning AI into a battlefield surveillance tool against America. The threat from China’s technology ecosystem isn’t theoretical, it’s imminent.” 👀
Generative AI Adds Interpretive Layer to US Strike Planning
Though the US military's big data initiative Maven has sped up the planning of strikes for years, the comments suggest that generative AI is now adding a new interpretative layer to such deliberations.
US Navy Excels at some Missions, Falters at Others
The hardest thing for me to explain this week: the US Navy can be phenomenal at some missions and shockingly unprepared for others. Some operations take time even in the best conditions. This article explains the dichotomy well..
Tehran’s Real Leverage: Shutting Hormuz, Not Drone Control
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
US War Prep Undermines Oil, Helium, and Alliances
Okay good, let's say the WH planned for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz following the attack. 1. The U.S. sold off its helium reserve before waging a war that they knew would disrupt helium exports to allies, which make...
Goldman’s Shifting Forecasts Reveal War to Reopen Hormuz
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
Nine Years Later, Tanker Crews Still Fly Together
From 2017, riding on a KC-135 over Iraq. Nine years later they are still at it. Active, Guard and Reserve tanker crews have been the most open and welcoming to me throughout my career covering military aviation. Horrible days for a...