Shopify Earns Most Money Beyond Subscriptions
Day 1 of 30: How $SHOP Shopify actually makes money Most think it's a SaaS subscription business... subscriptions are only 24% of revenue Here's the real breakdown 🧵
Paramount‑Skydance Restructures Debt, Adding $31B to WBD
Pretty sure we need to add $31 billion or so of WBD debt to this number. Paramount Skydance Restructures Debt Financing for Warner Bros. Discovery Deal https://t.co/KdxmGFAyON via @variety
Low‑rate 2020‑21 Loans Force SME Refinancing Crunch
A lot of lending to small/midsize companies is for a term of 5 to 7 years. A great deal of debt issued 3/2020 to 9/2021 is therefore coming due these days. UST interest rates were near zero in that issuance...
Clean‑Tech Giant Ascend Elements Files Bankruptcy After $1.1B Raise
Ascend Elements, which raised $1.1 billion, is filing for bankruptcy as parts of the clean tech industry struggle https://t.co/fOhXjtm6fH
Agentic Coding Poised to Replace Spreadsheets Entirely
why are spreadsheets the GOAT of no code tools? - unintimidating interface, just type numbers in a grid - easy to make something useful - shareable with a link - copy and make your own - insanely deep use cases (as a database, CRM, forecasting...
Review Risk Exposure Before Friday Liquidity Drain
They are not on the same page at all. This is nuts. I would suggest reviewing your risk exposure before liquidity drains Friday as this ceasefire seems to be purely aspirational
Broaden View: Compare Foreign Holdings Across All Sovereigns
If you routinely post a chart of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries but never post a chart of the foreign holdings of other global Sovereigns, you are missing the forest for the trees. https://t.co/GMjr60j0dV
AI Still Lacks True Investment Judgment, Yet Perspectives Shift
The common thing for investors to say about AI over the last 18 months is that "AI can help with process, but has no judgment". When I would hear that, I would pretty much agree. LLMs are fundamentally stateless with...
Earnings Growth Drives Market Gains, Balancing Valuations
The forward earnings estimate has been growing at a robust 17% annual rate and the momentum has thus far not been affected by the headlines. This strength has beenenabling the cycle to become more balanced between valuation and earnings. As of...
OneWeb UK Cuts Costs, Boosts Revenue, Secures Eutelsat Backing
.@EutelsatGroup OneWeb UK reports 44.5% rev boost in FY 2025; opex down 17%; staff costs down 33%; operating loss, at $456M, down sharply from 2024. Letter from Eutelsat guarantees financial backing through June 2027 if needed. @AirbusSpace @defis_eu.https://t.co/m1k5YGix9u https://t.co/iTbKQhShKk
Schools Classify New Facilities as Operating Expenses
Since...whenever schools decided to list that spending as part of their "Facilities, Maintenance and Operations" line item on their operating expenses? Here are the receipts: https://t.co/g5zVFNnHuN
Unilever to Acquire Gummies Maker Grüns for $1.2 B
Axios Pro scoop: Unilever deal for gummies maker Grüns is valued at around $1.2 billion https://t.co/75MXcTj32E
Bitcoin ETF Fees Set to Drop After MSBT Launch
"We could see other people cut fees" – @JSeyff on the Bitcoin ETF fee war after MSBT https://t.co/59QFyrn9Vx
Even 1‑bp Fee Cuts Can Shift Billions in Crypto
"If you have a fee that is 1 basis points lower, it can move flows by the billions on the equity sides of the market. I don't see why that won't be the case on crypto for people who are...
New KPI Markets Launch: Predict Fundamentals with Fiscal API
I've always had a dream of markets where investors can focus on core business results and ignore the noise. A focus on the KPIs that actually matter. 🎉 So excited to share that @fiscal_ai @Kalshi @Benzinga have partnered up to make...
Israel-Lebanon Talks Boost Treasury Gains, Optimism Rises
Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88
Banks Poised to Tap $323B Stablecoin Market, $6T Deposits
The FDIC approved new stablecoin rules earlier this week, clearing the way for Wall Street banks to enter a $323 billion market under the GENIUS Act’s new federal framework. “If they make that legal, we will go into that business,”...
Prediction Market ETFs Could Become Viable Investment Tools
"On this episode of Trillions, Eric Balchunas and Joel Weber interview Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise and one of those filers, about why prediction market ETFs might make sense" Prediction Markets May Be Coming for ETFs https://t.co/hRoSJZ6Jb2
Top Ten Women's Volleyball Budgets Revealed for FY25
Here were the top ten WVB OPERATING BUDGETS (non-NIL) from FY25 (the 2024 season), according to the zillions of FOIAs we filed. https://t.co/NoSQmmfBoW The full data, and context, can be found here: https://t.co/k2fPbxTZE7
Claude's ROI Forces Me to Demand Lower Vendor Prices
The ROI I get from Claude has broken my brain on all vendor renewals “You want me to pay 2x what we pay for Claude for your little workflow tool?” I have never pushed harder on pricing and threatening to churn in...
Rising Bond Supply Threatens Tight Spreads, Rotate Funds
Bond issuance is surging. More supply into already tight spreads. That math doesn't work forever. When the dam breaks, you want a fund that rotates. $JOJO. https://t.co/rq34u6KTHX
UK Bond Volatility Undermines Liquidity and Mortgage Availability
Once again, the UK financial markets are dominated by the “high beta” character of government bonds. (Please see Bloomberg data below.) This isn't just about rate volatility in the national benchmark; it’s also about how that volatility undermines market liquidity, complicates...
Eight Trillion Dollars of T‑Bills Rollover Every Year
That’s the thing about treasury bills man, there’s $8t that rolls over every year And the world keeps spinning every year despite it!
Treasury Yields Surge Above 4.9% Amid CPI, Auction Pressure
Between tomorrow's CPI and today’s 30-year auction, Treasuries are feeling the heat. That ceasefire euphoria has already faded - 30s are back north of 4.90%
Gold’s Dip Tied to Rising Yields, Not Inflation Fears
A guest on @business questioned this morning why anyone would buy gold when you can buy inflation protected securities yielding 2.7%. Excellent question. A few answers: First, maybe I misheard him, but TIPS yields are currently just a tad under 2%...
M&A Spree Sees Premiums up to 80%
Today's M&A and SPAC notes $GTWO.to to be acquired by $GMIN.to for 0.212x shares + CVR + Spinco, 79.7% premium, $3.0 billion $WSR to be acquired by $ARES for $19.00 cash per share, 26.5% premium, $1.7 billion $ASRT to be acquired by Garda...
Treasury Bill Rollovers & Debt Swaps Overhyped on FinTwit
Two topics that get 100x more airtime than they deserve on fintwit: 1) Trillions in Tbills constantly maturing and getting bought again by the same balance sheets that hold them now. 2) The Treasury issuing some on-the-run debt to buy back some...
Corient Expands UHNW Footprint with $5.6B Vivaldi Acquisition
Corient continues its buying spree in the ultra-high-net-worth space, announcing the acquisition of another RIA, Vivaldi Capital ($5.6 billion AUM) They've been on a roll the past year https://t.co/xy8jLFknDZ
Most Stocks Lose 85% and Half Never Recover
Michael Mauboussin on drawdowns "The median drawdown for the 6,500 stocks in our sample from 1985-2024 was 85 percent and took 2.5 years from peak to trough. More than one-half of all stocks never recover to their prior highs."
Phunware Holds $100M Cash on $38M Market Cap
Any idea what is going on with Phunware $PHUN? $100m net cash on a market cap of roughly $38m, a result of its comfi ATM usage last year. Over 80% of its total assets is just cash. No idea (yet) what...
Meta Ties Exec Bonuses to $9 Trillion Valuation Goal
"Under the program, Meta executives would only realize the full value of their options if the company hits a market capitalization of more than $9 trillion by 2031 - an increase of 500% from its current $1.5 trillion." https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-targets-9-trillion-valuation-with-new-executive-incentive-program-64460862?msockid=1c302391d69563690da33083d70562fb
Policy Uncertainty and Market Risk Diverge Half the Time
Investors feel anxious. Iran. Oil prices. Volatile markets. The news feels relentless. But here's what 30 years of data shows: policy uncertainty and market risk are measured by different instruments, and they diverge almost half the time. ...
AI Agents Set to Revolutionize Global Finance
How AI Agents Will Transform the Financial System - interview on @NoPriorsPod https://t.co/XFsJ32mzNt via @YouTube
Bitcoin ETFs Trail Gold, Gold Gains 135%
Bitcoin ETF Performance Pales Next to Gold The launch of US Bitcoin ETFs may have been the harbinger for the end of broad crypto price appreciation, favoring gold. Since the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) started trading in January 2024, Bitcoin...
Wipro Announces 2026 Share Buyback Meeting Date
Wipro Buyback 2026 Coming | Buyback Meeting Date . . . .#stocks #stockmarket #ipo #buyback #trump
Refinancing $8 Trillion Will Spike U.S. Interest Costs
Hey @grok, what happens to interest payments when the U.S. government has to refinance $8 trillion of debt next year at higher interest rates?
IBKR's Peterffy Pushes Institutional Prediction Markets Despite Regulation
NEW ODD LOTS It's Interactive Brokers founder and chairman Thomas Peterffy on building a prediction market for professional (institutional) investors. Lots to dig into here. Peterffy is incredibly influential in markets, basically pioneering automated trading. He's very much worth listening to when...
Ford Admits $4.8B EV Loss, Refuses Unprofitable Spending
"Ford CEO Knew the EV Transition Would Hurt, But the Reality Is a $4.8B Loss — 'We Can't Allocate Money For Things That Will Not Make Money'" https://t.co/1UM2eCDJsV https://t.co/0UFTk3eamf
Essential Risk Management Guide for Trader Survival
Trader Survival Guide I wrote the only risk management guide you need. Includes - The Survival Curve - Liquidation Threshold - Preservation Protocol Enjoy https://t.co/b3u9H1tKgX
OpenAI, Anthropic Face Massive Cash Burn, Depend on IPO Funding
"Both OpenAI and Anthropic will burn through a giant amount of cash in the coming years, and are counting on their IPO investors to help buoy their businesses." -WSJ
Buffett's Buyback Test: Cash Surplus, Undervalued Stock
Buffett's two conditions for buybacks: 1) The company has more cash than it needs for the business. 2) The stock is trading below intrinsic value, conservatively calculated. Simple test. Most companies fail the second one because management is almost always...
Hedging Reveals Balance of Confidence, Narrative, and Action
The equilibrium between confidence, stories, and actions is never clearer than when we turn to hedging...
Private Markets Face $330B Debt Maturity Crunch by 2028
"A wall of debt maturities is looming for the private markets industry, with more than $330 billion of high yield, leveraged loan and business development company-linked software and technology debt coming due for repayment through 2028." https://t.co/tbaFKL3oym
Taleb's Smart Risk‑Taking: Barbell, No Ruin, Convex Bets
🧠 Smart Risk-Taking Principles for Traders according to N. N. Taleb: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (former options trader & author of Antifragile, Skin in the Game, The Black Swan) doesn’t preach “risk management.” He teaches smart risk-taking: survive at all costs, love...
France Maintains 5% Deficit Target for 2026
France to keep 5% 2026 deficit goal for now, budget chief says https://t.co/x2JgmrJesT via @WHorobin https://t.co/oEinKGqCzm
Major Chinese Banks Cut Pay as Economy Stalls
SCMP: "Several major Chinese banks have clawed back staff bonuses or cut salaries amid a sluggish economic recovery and Beijing’s ongoing scrutiny of the financial sector." https://t.co/7HaKaMzkVD via @scmpnews
AI Automates Models; Humans Still Win Negotiations
Negotiation up 300%. Financial Modeling up 300%. Not AI tools. The skills everyone said AI would replace. AI builds the model now. What it can't do: sit across from a skeptical CFO and hold the line. The premium is shifting. To the humans...
Dual‑Perspective Stock Analysis Prompt for Balanced Investing
Try this prompt to help you see two sides of every story: "Act as an institutional-grade equity analyst. Perform a deep-dive, adversarial analysis of [Insert Stock Name/Ticker] using the following structure: 1. The Bull Case The Moat: Define the specific competitive advantage (e.g.,...
IGP
#IGP revenue down but been winning orders. Net Cash now £20m against Mkt Cap about £50m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 15.9 falling to 13.7 before stripping cash out. I don't hold.
SOM Boosts Buyback to $6M, Details M&A Framework
#SOM increased Buyback Programme (previously announced) to $6m and given more details on M&A Framework. I don't recall much M&A previously so that's interesting.