Buybacks Drive Returns; High Prices Limit Gains
"Apple wouldn't be where it is today if it weren't for those buybacks. Now, stocks go up if your capital allocation is productive. It's the #1 driver of stock price returns. So if you're buying a stock at too high a price, it's hard to get an outstanding return unless they're buying back their stock at low prices." -- @ramahluwalia https://t.co/NhzS0wOyW9
UK Bond Market Losers Identified, Risks Explained, Solutions Offered
Posted earlier today: FYI, here’s the link to my column on who lost the UK bond market—the what, why, and so what... and also what to do about it: https://www.ft.com/content/4b258818-4935-4507-b554-bccc5fd05b66 #economy #markets #bonds #uk @financialtimes
Chipotle's $4B Buyback Equals 15‑year Total
Chipotle repurchased ~$4 billion of stock in the past three years (FY23 - FY25) That's comparable to their repurchase spend in the prior 15 years (FY08 - FY22) https://t.co/mEKhK5LYEy
The Unspoken Grind: Reconciling 128 VAT Transactions
I’m still here 😅 Currently deep in my VAT return… 128 transactions to reconcile 😭 This is the part of running a business no one really talks about Not the content not the growth just… this 😂
Know the Right Time to Maximize SaaS Sale Value
Next up at MicroConf: @einarvollset on maximizing for the value you receive when selling your SaaS business. "When to sell your B2B SaaS"
Goldman Sachs Beats Earnings, Yet Stock Slides Amid Iran Tensions
Goldman Sachs profit jumped 19% in Q1 — but the stock dropped 3% as the war in Iran raises questions about what's ahead for dealmaking and IPOs for the rest of the year.
Merck's $30B Offer Now Exceeds Revolution's Market Cap
Reminder that Merck tried to buy Revolution for $28-$32B (per Jan reporting from FT), vs current market cap after today's great data of $26.5B https://t.co/hoq2P0oiG9
Banks Offload €207B Risk, Triggering Impending Crash
European banks are moving €207 billion in credit risk towards investors through so called 'SRTs'. Remember the Big Short? Exactly, we're building 2.0. That's why I call this period the final run. After that, we're going to witness a massive period...
Strong Fundamentals, Weak Stock: Valuation Drives Returns
$ADBE Since 2020: 🔴 Stock Price -30% 🟢 Revenues +85% 🟢 EBITDA +91% 🟢 FCF +86% This is a clear example that valuation is everything. You might be right on the business fundamentals, but be wrong on the stock performance. Was $ADBE incredibly overvalued then, or is...
Wall Street Predicts 2026 S&P Rise Despite Slight Dip
At the end of 2025, Wall Street banks released their 2026 S&P 500 price targets. The S&P 500 is currently -0.15% year to date.
Round Size Alone Tells Nothing without Financial Context
Imagine a funding announcement with actual financials… Why did we all decide to include one number: Round size Meaningless. Means zilch without knowing burn rate, profitable/not, margin, pre/ post money valuation, revenue multiple relative to peer set, growth rate.
Hawkeye360 IPO Preps with $117M Revenue, Massive Backlog
Satellite signals-intel provider @hawkeye360, preparing IPO on @NYSE, reports $117.7M in 2025 rev, $24.8M EBITDA and sharply lower operating loss. Revenue was 61% US government, 16% Japan, 23% rest of world. Backlog, at $302.7M, up 6.8x from 2024.https://t.co/E8IPZWf3pK https://t.co/QgmLlopOAW
Steady Cash Flow Leads to Lasting Entrepreneurial Freedom
I've started 3 successful SaaS companies in 10 years. The biggest lesson: Calmly growing cash flow is the path to enduring freedom.
InfoArbMonitor Adds SEC Filings to Research Workflow
Update from the @InfoArbMonitor team. The platform has now begun integrating SEC filing presentations into the research flow. Here’s a quick video showing $TGEN Q4 data center pipeline slide: Full Disclosure: I have a vested interest in the success of this...
IRS Returns, Tip Deductions, and Plant Tax Insights
Tax News & Views Appreciates Plants and Audit Risk Roundup "The IRS isn't going to catch me." IRS agents return from immigration assignments. Tip deduction rules. Tax policy perceptions. Plants. Link in replies.
Hostile M&A Overpaying Signals Commodity Supercycle
Fun sign of the commodity-supercycle times: Hostile M&A with "we know we're overpaying and this is as good as you'll ever get" messaging https://t.co/5mgQy0oBYN
Investing Metrics Often Mislead: FCF & EV Errors
Second this... there's also periodic misinformation in these investing tools, especially with FCF and enterprise value calculations... leases, IFRS interest cash flows, capex/intangibles, other stuff
Pricing, Not Diversification, Drives Gold’s Portfolio Rescue
The great failure of 60/40 and risk parity was holding bonds at ZIRP "for portfolio diversification benefit". Pricing matters. Today Gold and commodities have saved every portfolio that was smart enough to hold them. Daily you hear about...
Merger Odds Between Charter and Comcast Rise Significantly
"We think the odds of a Charter-Comcast merger are higher today than just a month ago," says New Street's Vikash Harlalka $CMCSA $CHTR https://t.co/MMBitMjhZw
Two Major Acquisitions Announced, Two SPAC Deals Terminated
Today's M&A and SPAC notes $SES.to to be acquired by $GFL.to for $4.95 cash + 0.3356x shares, 16.8% premium, $6.4 billion $LEG to be acquired by $SGI for 0.1455x shares, 13.7% premium, $2.5 billion $ETHM / The Ether Machine deal terminated $SPAC.to / Cube...
ECB Remains Noncommittal on Stablecoins Boosting Bond Demand
In today’s Daily Peg (my stablecoin dedicated newsletter) the ECB offers non committal perspectives about whether or not stablecoins create net new demand for sovereign bonds. https://t.co/41t2azueoh
Pershing Square Launches Road Show for Combined IPO
Today, we announced the launch of the road show for the combined IPO of Pershing Square USA and Pershing Square Inc. You can read the official announcement here: https://t.co/4ffeQZm9ZL. I wrote a letter to explain the combined offering in detail that can...
Stop Buying Supplies Blindly—Track Profitability First
Something I see creatives doing all the time is overspending on supplies without knowing if they're actually making money. They keep buying new stuff but never check if their product or service is profitable. That's not me judging because if I...
Snap‑Perplexity Deal Valued at 7% of 2025 Sales
Curious indicator for the Snap / Perplexity deal. Perplexity’s $400MM payment to Snap (undisclosed mix of cash / equity) would have represented ~7% of Snap’s 2025 sales. Snap noted in Q4 earnings that the integration had been delayed due to...
Prediction Markets Boost Forecasting by Aggregating Collective Knowledge
Increasingly popular prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket may improve forecasting by aggregating knowledge https://t.co/sHKfq4qA12
Hyperscalers' Capex to Consume Over 90% Cash
BofA: Hyperscalers’ capex as % of operating cash flow was 70% in 2025 and is expected to be >90% in 2026 https://t.co/GP7k2xG8rb
Roundhouse Capital Settles £251m Loans, Pays Moshiri £67m
Everton new parent company Roundhouse Capital publishes accounts. It paid Farhad Moshiri £25m up front with a further £42m due at future dates, as well as paying off £251m of existing loans. https://t.co/pS7qY8I1Wl
Tight Margins Demand Rigorous Financial Controls in Retail
Projects costing hundreds of millions often struggle with tracking slim margins. In food & retail, every bit counts. Failing to manage financial controls and margins is a major issue. #Business #Finance #Retail https://t.co/L4HibQ2z6L
Trust in Valuations, Not Liquidity, Drives Private Credit Pressure
The issue for private credit is not just liquidity but a lack of trust in how fund managers value loans. "Redemption gating isn't likely to stop the pressure on private credit until private credit managers take more meaningful & more...
Sectional Titles Face Higher SASRIA Rates, Becoming Riskier Investments
Sectional titles are in for a rude awakening in South Africa, 𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗼𝗻-𝘃𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺. “Due to the unprecedented unrest event of July 2021, SASRIA initiated a rate increase across its product lines in 2022” However,...
Unlimited Watchlist Tickers for $39: Koyfin’s Value
Koyfin offers unlimited tickers in your watchlists, which you can then use to track news on the individual companies. Hard to beat at $39/month. https://t.co/QV3M8BpEH3
Chelsea Overspends by £355 M, up From £10 M Last Season
In terms of day to day cash management, from ticket, broadcasting, commercial sales less wages, overheads etc (and excluding player transactions) Chelsea spent £355m more than they generated in 2024/25, compared to just £10m in 2023/24 https://t.co/hfjbfmXSJM
Digital Filings Appear Instantly; Paper Submissions Cause Weeks-Long Delays
Why is it that some companies submit accounts to Companies House that are visible immediately and others take almost two weeks to become visible? If you send them in digitally then CH can process them and publish almost straight away. However,...
Chelsea Posts £262m Pre‑tax Loss Despite Revenue Rise
Chelsea submit 24/25 accounts.🔑figures ⚽️Revenue £491m ⬆️5% ⚽️Wages £359m ⬆️6% ⚽️Average weekly wage £152,000 ⚽️Amortisation £214m ⬆️9% ⚽️Player write downs £12m ⚽️Underkying loss £296m ⚽️Player sale profits £58m ⚽️Pre tax loss £262m ⚽️Total losses over the years £1,543m ⚽️Player purchases £305m ⚽️Total cost of squad £1,509m ⚽️Player sales £126m ⚽️Share issue in...
BlueCo Loses £1.7bn in Two Years, £10.4m Weekly
Chelsea parent company BlueCo 22, which owns both Chelsea and Strasbourg, and strips out all the transactions between group companies, lost £630m in 24/25, taking total losses since the company formed in 2022 to £1,675 million, or £10.4m a week...
Japan’s Pre‑deal Hype Misleads; Fundamentals
I'm always interested in these pre event M&A trades in Japan where some legit media outlet publishes about M&A... and then months pass with silence and the speculators are forced to unwind... in Japan sometimes the passage of time does...
Japan 10‑Year Yield Peaks 2.49% Amid Middle East Tensions
JUST IN: Japan's 10-year bond yield surges to 2.49%, its highest since 1997, amid Middle East tensions and the US Hormuz blockade driving inflation fears.
Domo Trades Under Half Its Guaranteed Revenue
Domo's enterprise value is $207M Domo's RPO is $438M It trades at 0.47x its guaranteed contractual revenue 🤯 https://t.co/38bLmYfxos
Safety Lies in Capital Structure, Not Just Stock Price
A bad year tests a business. High leverage ends one. Earnings recover. Dilution doesn't. Bankruptcy doesn't. The equity you owned before the rescue round doesn't. Margin of safety isn't just about price. It's about capital structure.
Budgeting to Exhaustion Won’t Ever Add Up
Some of y'all are budgeting your way into exhaustion. That math is never going to hit.
Bitcoin Growth Above 2.05% Sustains Dividends Forever
Our BTC Breakeven ARR is ~2.05%. If Bitcoin grows faster than that over time, we can cover our dividends indefinitely without issuing new $MSTR shares. Track it in real time on our site. $STRC
Commodities Futures Add Value to Balanced Portfolios
If you look at the data, investing in commodities futures makes sense within the context of a total portfolio approach. https://t.co/KYqknJKQ54
Aave's Landmark Vote Makes DAO Treasury Token‑Centric
Aave Will Win, the most important proposal in Aave's history just passed with a landslide. Here's the master plan going forward: General Direction - Aave becomes fully token-centric: one asset, one model: $AAVE - To date, protocol revenue per AIP-1 has accumulated to the...
Morgan Stanley's Low-Fee Bitcoin ETF Signals Industry Pivot
I asked @JSeyff why he tweeted "WOW" in all caps when Morgan Stanley filed for a Bitcoin ETF — and the answer gets at something real about how this industry works. Timestamps: 🚀 0:00 Introduction 💰 2:12 How MSBT performed on day one,...
CFOs Always Join $50K+ Deal Negotiations
If you close $50k+ deals, the CFO is involved. Whether you meet them or not. I recently negotiated with a CFO to close a $50k deal. Here's how it went (and what you can learn):
Speedy Tokenization & Broken AI Governance Threaten Banking Loyalty
Tokenized Securities Settlement: Speed Kills Corporate AI governance is a sham, and 89% of your bank customers are one tap away from leaving In all my years of writing, I’ve never had two two-part articles in a single newsletter, so enjoy...
CFOs See AI Boosting Speed, Output, Not Jobs
The AI Revolution Continues CFOs expect the biggest impacts to be on decision speed, output per worker, and time spent on high–value–added tasks, with employment essentially unchanged. Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/pFTZf2q7JW
Goldman's 7,600 S&P Target Now Seems Achievable
That Goldman 7600 S&P 500 year-end target looks more doable now vs a couple weeks ago https://t.co/ylS7dFh44o
Vendor Gets Safe Revenue, You Shoulder All Risk
The vendor is secure with their subscription revenue, regardless of your project's outcome. You bear all the risk, costs, and uncertainty about business value materializing. When pressure mounts, blame often lands with you. #BusinessStrategy #RiskManagement https://t.co/b4QlSGFlb4
Finance Pros Replace Excel with Claude for Data Analysis
I’ve seen the biggest change in AI usage in the last couple months from my finance friends many of whom were excel diehards and only light ChatGPT users…Claude now does the first pass at their data room analysis, their slide...