Misaligned Incentives and Hidden Risks Slip Past Sleepy Regulators
He might have left Wall Street but get @johnarnold going on misaligned incentives, hidden risks, and sleepwalking regulators and you’d never know it. A fun and timely chat
Estimating How Many Years of Value Stocks Price In
New Mauboussin paper just dropped. The question it tackles: when you buy a stock, how many years of value creation is the market pricing in, and how would you even measure that? https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/consilient-observer/article_theneglectedvaluedriver_ltr.pdf?1776183428400
Anthropics Rejects Investor Funding at High Valuation
News with squad: @nmasc_ @BTLipschultz @RebeccaTorrenc5 @shiringhaffary Anthropics investors are basically very hopeful of giving them more money at very big valuation and theyre like: no we aren’t in to that right now
State Street Adds Mutual Fund Class to S&P 500 ETF
NEW: State Street just filed to bolt on a mutual fund share class to their S&P 500 ETF -- $SPYM. Yet another in a massive list of filings for ETF share classes on mutual funds AND mutual fund share classes...
Hyperliquid ETF Filing Updated, Ticker THYP Nears U.S. Launch
NEW: Updated filing from @21shares_us on their Hyperliquid ETF. Ticker will be $THYP. No information on fees yet. Suspect updates/changes are due to SEC comment and feedback. Getting closer to a US listed hyperliquid ETF. https://t.co/9Bsj6ufDnu
Institutions Hedge Tail Risk as SKEW Near Resistance
SKEW is pinned just below 5-year resistance at 156. Institutions are quietly paying up for far out-of-the-money put protection. They're hedging a low-probability, high-impact tail event. That's not typically a buy-the-dip environment. Time will tell.
Huge FX Options Set to Expire Tomorrow Across Major Pairs
Interesting FX options that expire tomorrow 1.64 bln euros $1.18 2 bln euros at $1.1750 $1.5 bln at JPY158.85 A$2.1 bln $0.7125-30. https://t.co/SuL5KID8ce
New Founder Finance Glossary with Interactive Tools
This is for the founder who is just getting started, we have a "Finance Glossary" for you now, we will be adding way more for you, interactive calculators, formulas, and worked examples. Check it out. https://t.co/VBF8fYbPst
Equity Valuations at Historic Peaks Threaten Credit Risk
Equity valuations are stretched to levels only seen twice before. When stocks are priced for perfection, the risk to credit is massive. $JOJO offers a different path. https://t.co/PwdBLqJYUe
REPL CEO Skips
$REPL CEO tells me they’re not going to appeal the 2nd CRL but will try to work with FDA - for now, commercial team/other layoffs, cash runway til Q1 of next year, stock price -75% from Fri https://t.co/FLAiOcAAQB
Lucid Secures $1.05B, Swaps CEO, Expands Uber Robotaxi Deal
Lucid Group released a trifecta of major updates, announcing a $1.05 billion capital raise, a leadership change, and an expanded robotaxi partnership with Uber and an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. https://t.co/F4hrNUg0UO
Back on WAMU's 1A: Tax Season Insights
Was a treat to be back on the 1A show at WAMU this morning, talking about tax season and the IRS: https://t.co/00ruApRBSf
Levered Lending Cycles Always End the Same, Just Bigger
The FT pointing out what should be obvious: every levered lending cycle ends roughly the same way. New financing innovation, rapid growth, retail participation expands, crisis, etc Each cycle is bigger. Each wave of retail participation arrives later
Backing PillarHQ to Embed Hedging Across All Organizations
ANOTHER ONE proud to back @PillarHQ as they embed hedging into orgs of all size @harshavramesh @cdeshpande17 are the third team of founders who bonded trading together that we've backed from our Fund I (which is also how @kellyjgreer and i met) financial...
Zero‑percent Euro/Yen Bonds Made 2021 Borrowing Bliss
Few things sweeter in corporate finance than borrowing at 0.000% by issuing fixed-rate notes in Euros/Yen during 2021 https://t.co/Wv6Z1zNz1S
Private Credit Defaults to Double by 2026, AI Blamed
UBS: Private credit defaults set to double in 2026 — with AI cited as a key driver of borrower distress
5‑Year Yields Rich Amid Front‑End
After a spirited front-end rally, 5s looking rich on the curve as intermediate-term slowdown bets dominate. Unfortunately, other tenors have their own issues. Fiscal concerns make the long end unattractive before May refunding and 2s have a here...
Measuring How Long Competitive Advantages Last
We have a new report out today on the concept of "competitive advantage period." A company’s anticipated value creation is measured by how much its return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeds its cost of capital as well as how long...
Use $JOJO to Complement Bonds During Spread Expansions
$JOJO is a complement, not a replacement. Add it alongside your core bond allocation for tactical credit rotation. When spreads blow out, you'll want this in the portfolio. https://t.co/xlY97itNk2
Fluidstack Seeks $1B Raise at $18B Valuation
Fluidstack is in talks to raise about $1B at a target valuation of $18B. Jane Street and former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness in talks about co-leading. SCOOP with @DavidPan_1 @RebeccaTorrenc5 @KatLeighDoherty https://t.co/cNNq2DtVHM
YC's First Stablecoin Deal Shows Instant Corporate Finance
YC's first stablecoin investment. settled on Solana, held in Ramp. we've been quietly building stablecoin accounts -treasury management natively in USDC. Totalis is one of our first alpha users the money moved in three onchain transactions. no wire delays, no intermediary banks,...
Goldman Sachs Files Bitcoin Premium Income ETF
SHOCK: Goldman jumping into the bitcoin ETF game.. with a filing for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF https://t.co/WszEIrQ2tV
Rising SBC Costs Inflate Expenses and Trigger Layoffs
SBC is a real expense that has gotten a lot more expensive. -Lower revenue multiples = more expensive SBC -GAAP expense is misleading -SBC matters a lot less if you are growing fast and have high terminal values -Layoffs are coming because of...
Amazon's $13.7B Whole Foods Tops $11.6B Globalstar Deal
Amazon's M&A history-- Globalstar would be its second-biggest deal ever I think: Whole Foods — $13.7B Globalstar — ~$11.6B announced / pending MGM — $8.45B One Medical — ~$3.9B Zoox — ~$1.3B Zappos — ~$1.2B Ring — ~$1.0–1.2B Twitch — ~$970M Kiva Systems — $775M PillPack — ~$753M
HK Transfers HK$150bn to Capital Works Fund
The Executive Council on Tuesday approved plans to transfer HK$150 billion from Hong Kong's main financial war chest to a fund supporting capital works, with the government assuring that the move is "an exceptional arrangement".
Private Debt Is Risky—Stop the Compliance Spin
The one in which Cliffwater going full Schrodinger. The private debt isn’t risky or not until we look? WTF? Let me help. The right answer, the honest answer, the only answer, is yes it is risky. That this crap makes it...
TBAC Survey Launches; Coupon Rise May Pressure Long End
I think TBAC questionnaires go out this week. Any question suggesting an increase in coupon issuance could pressure the long end.
BetMGM Lowers FY2026 Outlook, Targets Lower EBITDA Range
BetMGM revises FY 2026 guidance down, per Q1 release: "We continue to expect FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $300-$350 million, albeit towards lower end of the range, while Net Revenue now expected to be between $2.9-$3.1 billion"
Dimon: Private Credit Mostly Stable, Winners Will Vary
Jamie Dimon on private credit: "The actual credit hasn't gotten that much worse. There are pockets where it has. And, you know, the credit spreads themselves haven't gotten much worse in general... "I just don't expect every player to be the...
Industrials Overlook Email‑Traded Plastics, Paper, Chemicals Markets
the current wave of industrials has largely overlooked plastics, paper, chemicals and other heterogeneous markets that are still largely traded over email excited to back @matiummarket led @tomorrowtweetin 🇺🇸 capital markets maximalism 🇺🇸
Weekly Cash Flow Visibility Uncovers Hidden Spending
One of my clients just had the biggest aha moment during our cash flow review. We track her spending weekly and she was like "Whoa... that's way more than I thought." That's the moment I live for. She wasn't doing anything wrong. She...
Herbalife Issues $800M Notes, Boosts Credit Outlook
Herbalife plans $800M 2033 secured notes to refinance costlier debt and extend maturities. 78% gross margin, $253M FCF, S&P upgrade support credit. Risk: leverage. Trade accumulate on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Oversupplied Grains
Hedge Funds Are Long on Oversupplied Grains Hedge funds are at their most net long in about three years despite an oversupplied grain bear market after the Iran-war bounce. My graphic highlights the potential oxymoron: managed-money net longs in corn, soybeans...
Commercial Banks Boost Lending Amid Shadow Banking Strains
"While there are cracks in the 'shadow' banking system, commercial banks are actually increasing their lending. There's no sign of a credit crunch in the Fed's weekly bank loan data." -Yardeni
SK Hynix Appears Massively Undervalued, Poised for 50
SK Hynix (@SKhynix) currently has an enterprise value around $486 billion… over the next three years I believe there’s a 60-70% chance they generate more than $486 billion of net income. With the stock trading at less than 3.5x NTM...
Wells Fargo’s $36.2 B Private‑Credit Loan Portfolio Unveiled
Wells Fargo in its 1Q presentation, detailed more granularity of its private-credit exposure this morning: ➡️$36.2B of loans to private credit funds (out of $1T of loans) ➡️ 98% senior first lien loans ➡️23% to BDCs (private and public) ➡️17% software, 19%...
SaaS Premiums: Palantir Leads, Momentum vs Value
Most expensive SaaS stocks - where the market is pricing durable growth. Ranked by Forward EV/Sales: $PLTR Palantir | 41.9x $NET Cloudflare | 22.0x $APP AppLovin | 16.6x $CRWD CrowdStrike | 15.5x $FICO Fair Isaac | 9.6x $DDOG Datadog | 9.3x $PANW Palo Alto Networks | 8.2x $FROG JFrog...
DePIN Infrastructure Scales, yet Monetization Remains Unclear
how profitable will depin networks actually get? hivemapper has 100,000+ user-funded dashcams mapping ~34% of world roads. geodnet has 20,500 user-funded RTK stations, now the largest precision GPS network on earth. helium mobile has 120K user-deployed hotspots with large carriers offloading...
China's Finance Ministry Mulls Special Treasury Bond Issue
JUST IN: China's finance ministry is discussing a special treasury bond issuance plan with underwriters.
Investing: Markets Don't Return Your Affection, Valuation Matters
"The stocks we buy don't love us back". At the end of our first financial year @CapitalmindMF, I'm interviewed by @imNavneetDubey in a summary of our investing approach, how we approach markets, and our view on valuations: https://t.co/DqSkWotEiV
ECB Backs EU Tokenized Markets Under Strict Regulations
JUST IN: The ECB is supporting tokenized capital markets in the EU with stringent regulations in place.
Skip IGSB ETF; T‑Bills Give Similar Yield, Lower Risk
Thinking short-term bonds? Analysis says skip IGSB ETF for now. Re-inflation risks could hurt returns, while T-Bills offer similar yield with less risk. Investing
IRS Offers Free Webinar with Last‑Minute Tax Tips
Interesting timing…IRS hosting free webinar to share last-minute tips for the filing season https://t.co/UgonIuV8n7 #IRS #taxtips
Private Credit Defaults Far Lower than Market Fears
Goldman's David Solomon providing some much needed rational thought around private credit: - GFC saw defaults peak at 10% - recoveries were 50% - trough cumulative loss of 5%-6% vs coupons of 9%-10% For context, listed BDCs are currently pricing in defaults of more...
WM Senibong IPO: Bet on Singapore’s Land Scarcity
The upcoming RM500 million IPO of WM Senibong isn't a signal of Malaysia's domestic property strength—it's a massive, coordinated bet on Singapore's shrinking land space. While the headlines focus on the target valuation of more than RM2 billion, there's a...
Hormuz Blockade Hits Malaysian SMEs With Triple Cost Surge
The Hormuz blockade is NOT a Middle East story for Malaysian SMEs. It’s an input cost problem on top of one you’re already managing. Most SME supply chains price raw materials in USD. When oil spikes, freight follows. When global risk...
Anchorage Digital Guarantees Crypto Safety Even If Bankrupt
Worst case, Anchorage goes bankrupt. Your crypto assets stay put. Anchorage Digital is bankruptcy remote, so your holdings stay segregated, remain in kind, and return to you after the process clears. BNY Mellon, holding $50-60 trillion in custody, steps in...
Tariff‑hit U.S. Firms Pawn Refunds for Loans
"‘People are trying to be creative’: Tariff-battered American companies are so cash-starved they are using refund claims as collateral for loans" https://t.co/WtwiAwG8Vp https://t.co/80jM3610SE
Private Credit May Calm, Not Amplify, Corporate Cycles
How dare these academics posit such a narrative violation: "Contrary to the concern that private credit could amplify credit supply shocks, our results indicate that private credit may dampen the corporate credit cycle"
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Funding Risks Dilution on Price Drops
"Microstrategy is a capital markets issuance MACHINE. It's a 9th wonder of the world. ... But will they have to sell their common stock? That's dilution. If Bitcoin doesn't keep going up, you'll have to sell at the worst time."...