Finance Social Media and Updates
Finance Social Media and Updates
Finance Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
New York City faces a fiscal crisis –– a $5.4B budget deficit. Mayor Mamdani’s plan: tax the most profitable corporations or INCREASE PROPERTY TAXES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES. MAMDANI’S PLAN = A PLAN TO KILL NEW YORK’S ECONOMY. https://t.co/HKJXzJh4Cu
Using a 40% vol for TSLA, the stock dropping to $365 by March expiry is about a 1 st dev move. If normal distrubution the fair odds for that are 5-1. The 370-365 ps offers 5.7-1 It's not a rec...
At the current market cap, Topicus is effectively a “2015-vintage” version of Constellation Software $CSU $TOI $TOI.V
Periods of high return dispersion are an opportunity for investors. As return performance gaps widen and valuation spreads develop, the ability to quantify the current rotation regime and anticipate the next one can deliver outperformance relative to...
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
Largest merger arbitrage books (by 13-F*) Pentwater: $10.6 billion HBK: $8.1 billion Millennium: $7.8 billion Balyasny: $5.3 billion Fidelity: $4.4 billion Citadel: $2.9 billion Qube: $2.7 billion AQR: $2.4 billion Glazer: $2.3 billion Magnetar: $2.1 billion h/t Cantor
.@Cloudflare crushes analysts’ expectations on revenue and its stock soars in late trading https://t.co/RRvAoDmATi @SiliconANGLE @Mike_Wheatley “If those three metrics are moving together, it often points to enterprise commitment velocity improving…” - @Chirag_Mehta @constellationr
Since the 2010s and BRI, Chinese FDI has matched or exceeded inward FDI, but now a really big gap is opening up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DcgBB3hzww
Gold is on the move🔥 As tensions in the Middle East rise and Iran escalates, markets are reacting and gold is back in focus When uncertainty rises, gold shines ✨ Big moves could be ahead. The question is… are you positioned? Trade Gold with...
While the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have SUFFERED in 2026, GOLD IS UP over 13%. It's time to turn away from SILLY VALLEY. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/PZTIJFhPOp
The Great Rotation: From Growth to Asset Rich Value My job is timing sector rotation & picking the best stocks long/short within it. That & sizing up macro event risk & market structure support. That's how I could time the...
Recent top and bottom line (as well as profit margins) have been disproportionately impacted by massive AI cap spending and high end consumer spending. The former has a half life to it. The later may not be sustained if home and stock...
Citadel on flows, via Bbrg: Retail traders spent a record amount snapping up software shares on Citadel Securities’ platform, according to Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at the firm, which began tracking the data in 2017: “Net notional...
You don't get paid unless you invoice. Accurate, timely invoices. These are the top invoicing vendors used in software companies. Plus, honorable mentions just off the chart. Survey Highlights: - 57 invoicing solutions named - Top 5 solutions own 55%...
The market has been broadening out nicely as of late, and since the April 2025 Tariff tantrum low, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index has almost caught up to the cap-weighted index (34% vs 38%). It has been good to see....
Record bond issuance. Record trading volumes. Tighter spreads. More supply should widen spreads. Instead buyers are so hungry that more issuance actually improves liquidity and compresses risk premiums. This works until it doesn’t.
NOW: 🇺🇸 Arizona’s SB1649, creating a state-run crypto reserve holding XRP, BTC, and more, cleared the Senate Finance Committee and now heads to the Rules Committee https://t.co/KSlJxJiDTM
CHART OF THE DAY: Our Portfolios Are Experiencing Lower Volatility While The Competitors Are Crashing https://t.co/8ToxLIPXph via @hedgeye
Your slowing revenue growth has created a stock-based comp (dilution) problem AI is destroying software multiples, but it may also be the only thing that can solve our dilution problem. https://t.co/8EiZueMtNK
This is the CLO market right now: Sellers: AI will destroy these businesses Buyers: Thanks for the yield Software is the largest sector in CLO portfolios globally. 10-15% concentration. Nearly half mature in the next 3 years. Someone here is wrong.
- Anthropic catalyst - Pouring cash into buyback w/ conservative balance sheet - 5% annual gross profit growth since EOY 2022 - stock trading below 17x EV/EBIT per @fiscal_ai Very interesting set-up for $ZM over next couple of years https://t.co/75MsUcEE1b
Latin America’s small businesses don’t lack ambition. They lack liquidity. FinTechs are stepping in to close persistent cash flow gaps with smarter underwriting, real-time data and embedded finance solutions. The real opportunity isn’t just lending. It’s becoming the financial operating system for...
Busy UST auction schedule in the next eight days could finally slowdown the rally a bit and offer an opportunity. Brand new 20s ($16B) today, new 30y TIPS tomorrow ($9B), and regular size/schedule 2s, 5s and 7s next week.
Good read on *market stress* from GS: “Our vol stress index closed the week registering 9 out of 10. Historically, readings of >9 have been buying opportunities, but this time ‘feels different’ as the increase in panic has not come with...
Strong stocks are good. Strong stocks + strong sector = better. Strong stocks + strong sector + strong market = ideal. The flip side is a weak market can put pressure on strong stocks, so it's key to pay attention to market (index)...
Wow, the goat is also rotating out of Megacap tech, long equal weight performance vs market cap, long financials for deregulation and curve steepening, and long real cyclical assets Feels good man
SKEW just closed below 140. Falling $SKEW = institutions unwinding tail-risk hedges (OTM puts get cheaper) and/or quietly reducing equity exposure. Past cycles: Sustained declines often marked distribution phases — rallies fade as protection demand evaporates and complacency builds. If it...
Elevated Margin Loans … wonder if the crypto volatility and metal volatility and software volatility has something to do with that 🥺
Congrats to Onshore on their $31M Series B! Onshore is building an AI-native platform that replaces manual CPA workflows with continuous, automated tax intelligence. Instead of relying on spreadsheets and fragmented documentation, Onshore automates data collection and analysis while keeping expert...
AMC moving to clean up its maturity wall. $2.5B package taking out 2027 notes (12.75%) and 2029 TL If it prices well, decently lower interest burden. $AMC
Influencers: “Rent your house to your business and boom — tax-free money.” What they don’t tell you: 📂 Fair market rent. 📝 Real agendas and minutes. 👥 Actual humans in attendance. 💼 A separate legal entity. 📸 Documentation that doesn’t look like it was created during...
AI cos and data centers are expected to issue $220 billion of debt this year, making up 15% of JPM's high-grade bond index (and making them bigger issuers than banks) https://t.co/LPkxfJGhNK
‼️The largest US stock buyer since 2009 is STEPPING BACK: Combined buybacks by Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle fell to $12.6 billion in Q4 2025, the lowest in 7 YEARS. This marks the 3rd quarterly decline, a -70% DROP from the...
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
We’re in a consolidation phase with growing cross-sector AI disruption fears, weakening tech leadership, falling yields, and increasing dispersion. This is the environment where you have to be disciplined, look at your portfolio honestly, and ask: – Is this company a potential...
NEW: CFTC chair Selig says the agency has exclusive authority over prediction markets and will defend its jurisdiction against state challenges. https://t.co/lOKfXA8tzw
Today's M&A notes $MASI to be acquired by $DHR for $180.00 cash, 38.3% premium, $9.9 billion $KW to be acquired by $FFH.to for $10.90 cash, 45.9% premium, $6.5 billion $ZIM to be acquired by $HLAGF for $35.00 cash, 125.8% premium, $4.2 billion https://t.co/ayupP5Rv2J
$APP Growing 66% With 77% Operating Margin — Yet Stock Is Down 42% YTD AppLovin delivered numbers most software companies can’t even model. Revenue up +66% YoY. Operating margin at 77%. And yet the stock is still down 42% YTD. Valuation argument? Forward P/S around 16x. Forward...
📺 THIS MARKET NEEDS RESOLUTION The market is stuck in a range. Breakouts fail, breakdowns bounce, and both longs and shorts get frustrated. We need a decisive move that breaks the range and sticks. That could mean: 🔻 A clean break below support $QQQ...
Strategy has acquired 2,486 BTC for ~$168.4 million at ~$67,710 per bitcoin. As of 2/16/2026, we hodl 717,131 $BTC acquired for ~$54.52 billion at ~$76,027 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/wvxRYZlQ3Y
New DSR released to clients. Part 3 in the Hamburger Series - Hyperscalers. As a reminder the idea is that to get a hamburger today one needs to promise to repay (issue debt and equity) on tuesday. ...
Almost 90% of global public bonds trade at a yield lower than 5%: Apollo's Torsten Slok. "With inflation at close to 3%, this means that investors in public fixed income only get a 2% real return each year." https://t.co/oCUWfCIGpn
The platform that popularized ragebait is bringing you better gambling: 📉 @X will roll out Smart Cashtags, enabling users to view data on stocks and cryptocurrencies directly from their timeline. 💸 X Money is currently in closed beta with employees. A public...
"capex too hot right now …CIOs telling CEOs to improve balance sheets (35% from 26%) vs. increase capex (20% from 34%) as FMS investors saying corps 'overinvesting' at new record high" - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/ciu0wy6GZP
#DEBS to do a fundraise of around £35m at 20p a share. Reiterates it's previous financial guidance and expects a lot of cost to come out of the business. New focus on Cash Flow.
A guide to business meal deductions Lower Risk • Occasional client lunch • Modest amounts • Clean documentation • Clear business relationship Moderate Risk • Frequent meals but defensible revenue • Slightly aggressive % of expenses • Documentation exists but is thin High Risk • Large meals relative to income • vague “business meeting” notes • No attendee names • Receipts missing • Pattern suggest disguised...
"We are beginning to see that @Truflation is becoming a key signal to drive investment decisions." - @therealsrust https://t.co/lsi9GM9p0d
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
Five private credit firms just provided $1.4B for a software buyout of OneStream valued at $6.4B. Same week everyone’s asking whether AI will make these companies obsolete. The market is telling you software is at risk. The lenders are telling you...
Every SaaS leader should master these 5 metrics. Bookings, retention, margins, OPEX, and efficiency — the core numbers behind durable growth and valuation. 🎥 https://t.co/ViVeSCTLXx #SaaS #SaaSMetrics https://t.co/bvoRB24XES
