Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6% Mortgage Rates Through 2027
Fannie Mae: Get use to these mortgage rates Fannie Mae's forecast for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Q3 2026 --> 6.0% Q4 2026 --> 6.0% Q1 2027 --> 6.0% Q2 2027 --> 6.0% Q3 2027 --> 6.0% Q4 2027 --> 6.0%
Same Advisor, Different Decisions, Hundred‑Thousand Dollar Gap
March 2020. COVID panic. Markets collapsed overnight. Two clients. Same portfolio. Same allocation. Same advisor. What they did next created a gap worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. It will probably never close.
Mortgage Rates Set for Volatile Swings Amid Global Uncertainty
My biggest takeaway right now regarding mortgage rates is to expect heightened volatility. They will likely bounce around a lot more than normal thanks to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The good news is 30-year fixed rates remain near ~3-year...
Prediction Markets Threaten Security Like Bloomberg Terminal
A ‘Bloomberg Terminal’ for espionage? In this episode of DEX in the City, hosts @TuongvyLe12, @kkirkbos & Jessi Brooks discuss: ⚠️ Whether prediction markets are becoming a national security concern 👀 Whether alleged programmatic Bitcoin sales by Jane Street qualify as market manipulation ❕️...
Global USD Demand Fuels Stablecoin Profits, Threatens Banks
One of reasons banks are freaking out about stablecoins, even though stablecoins don't pay yield, is bc there is more demand for USD outside the US than there is inside the US. And that means billions (no...trillions) of profits going...
UST Funding Strain Grows as 30‑Year Swap Spread Hits
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr
Avoid Annington Bonds Amid Repayment Shock Risk
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oracle to Slash Thousands of Jobs in $1.6B AI‑driven Restructuring
Oracle Plans Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of AI Cash Crunch “In September @Oracle disclosed in a filing it was planning its largest-ever restructuring, which will cost as much as $1.6B in the current fiscal year ending May, incl severance...
Firms Use Repo‑Like Loans to Hide Debt
“The firms are using repo-like loans from one particular investment bank to mask debt, the letter says.” https://t.co/YLQH5cPi6f
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
CashApp's Credit Risk Management Highlights Intentional Crime Controls Lapses
Still thinking about @AlexH_Johnson & my pod convo about @CashApp's plan to sell its internal credit scores to third parties That the company seems to be able to manage *credit risk* reasonably effectively makes its financial crime control failures look even...
Hollywood Execs Prioritize Cost Cuts over Creative Talent
After Hollywood turned on David Zaslav for being too much of a bean counter/financier, I’m sure The Town will appreciate David Ellison’s answer to being asked how many layoffs are coming w/ merging w/ WBD: “We absolutely need to rationalize the...
BlackRock Wipes Private Credit Loans to Zero in Three Months
Well well well... BlackRock marked a private credit loan at 100 cents on the dollar in Q3. By Q4, it was a big fat ZERO. Not 80. Not 50. ZERO. In 3 months. This is the second time $TCPC has done this recently....
Delayed Coverage of $20 Million Loan Write‑down Emerges
Not sure why the write-down of a $20 million loan that was disclosed nearly two months ago is news but here we are https://t.co/lfuuXrqdYg
Five Unexpected Companies That Could Acquire PayPal
Who Should Acquire PayPal? 5 Potential Acquirers Nobody’s Talking About PayPal is now considered to be a prime acquisition target. Who besides Stripe would be a good acquirer? Here are 5 potential candidates. Try to keep an open mind. https://t.co/rrD4BdDrG8
SpaceX's $1.75T IPO Dream Defies $20B Revenue Reality
SpaceX provably has revenues of less than $20bn and loses money after the merger with xAI, but is targeting a $1.75 TRILLION IPO. So FTAV explored how Musk might try to pull off what could be the biggest bagholder operation...
USPS Hires Advisers to Tackle Mounting Financial Woes
The U.S. Postal Service is hiring restructuring advisers to help address its increasing financial troubles, Postmaster General David Steiner told Reuters in an interview. https://t.co/5x45UAESKf
Profitability Doesn't Mean Cash Flow Health
Ever feel “profitable” but still broke? This is one of the biggest traps in business. ⸻ A precision engineering SME had strong margins. But paid for machines upfront. Waited 90 days to get paid. Every big order felt like a risk instead of a...
AI‑driven Layoffs Demand Generous Severance Packages
If there is a layoff then what will your severance package be? If you are at a large company then it might look something like the below, which is pretty generous. And if AI is used as the layoff excuse….they better be...
Turn Distressed Assets Into Home Runs with Yield‑based Underwriting
How do I underwrite deals to ensure that (if I get my offer price) the deal ends up being a home-run? This is how. This is a real deal I submitted an offer on a while ago. 56 units, priced at...
Clients Panic, Flood Me with “Sell?” After Market Crash
The morning markets crashed on Liberation Day, my phone didn't stop. By 9am, I'd received 14 messages from clients. Every single one asked the same question: 'Should I sell?'
Netflix Gains $2.8B After Dropping Warner Deal
Netflix, After Walking Away From Warner Bros. Deal, Will ‘Move Forward’ With ‘$2.8 Billion in Our Pocket That We Didn’t Have a Few Weeks Ago,’ CFO Says https://t.co/ztTl2wiPxD via @variety
Netflix CFO Confident Regulatory Approval for Warner Acquisition
"We had high confidence" of getting through regulatory, says Netflix CFO Spencer Neumann on pursuit of Warner's studios and streaming operations.
Netflix CFO Says Company Remains Small, Poised for Organic Growth
Netflix CFO Spencer Neumann says at Morgan Stanley conference that the streaming company "is small" with a runway for organic growth.
Mortgage Rates Hover Near 5% as Jobs Data Looms
Mortgage rates have eased back toward the 5s today, potentially due to oil transport assurances from the President. The 30-year fixed is just 8 bps away from a 5-handle again, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Jobs report on Friday...
U.S. Large‑Cap Stocks Overpriced by 176% Historically
Large caps are extremely expensive, well beyond 3 standard deviations above average, but back a little from last year's all-time high. These two charts come from long-run valuation work (Advisor Perspectives / Crestmont style datasets) and show how expensive the U.S....
Company Completes $400M Share Buyback by December 2025
"As announced on October 2, 2025, the Board authorized the repurchase of $400 million of outstanding shares of Class A and Class B common from October 1, 2025, through October 1, 2026… The $400 million repurchase program was completed in...
History Shows Most Nations Experience Mass Displacement—Stay Mobile
That is an old saying I learned in Hong Kong that is meant to convey that any place can become unsafe and that having the ability to go to other places is invaluable. It is a lesson from history that...
Learn From the Suits: Master Bigger Financial Games
There are so many financial games being played that we don't even know exist. There's a scene in Batman where they take over the trading floor and one of the traders says "there's no money here that you can steal" Bane replies...
Liquidity Buffers Intended for Crises Are Being Hoarded
Great point in @SecScottBessent speech: Post-2008 liquidity buffers were designed to be spent in a crisis. Instead, they are treated as untouchable minimums and so banks hoard liquid assets rather than deploy them, making stress worse. (1/3) @vtg2 @BrendanPedersen @amacker...
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
Beyond AI: Over‑hiring and Slowed Growth Trigger 2026 Layoffs
It’s not just “AI efficiency” that will cause massive layoffs in 2026. Many overhired and can’t “grow into it” now because revenue growth slowed a lot. -What are companies doing right now? -What are severance benchmarks? -How to best do a layoff https://t.co/Db7jHp7KFa
Mortgage Demand Jumps 11% as Rates Near Four‑year Low
Weekly #Mortgage demand surged 11% higher last week, as rates sat near 4-year low https://t.co/2HClawHnMz @MBAMortgage
Vendor Financing Aligns Seller Interest via Business Collateral
Case Study: Effective Vendor Financing in Business Acquisitions This topic was highlighted by a question from Tomo, a follower intrigued by the mechanics behind vendor take-back notes. Challenge: When purchasing a business with vendor financing, one of the key concerns for both...
Kraken Secures First Fed Master Account, Reviving Narrow Banking
This is bigger news than people realize: @krakenfx just became the first crypo exchange to receive a "Master Account" from the @FederalReserve. Narrow banking is back. 👉 A Fed master account provides direct access to the central bank’s core payment systems — including...
See Real Trade Risk, Not Just Green PnL
Your PnL shows the results. The @tradesviz Drawdown View shows the truth. A green exit can hide a reckless process. See what really happened inside the trade: • 📈 Running PnL Curve — Real-time journey, not just the end result • 📉...
Thailand, South Korea Lead Asia’s Oil‑Shock Market Turmoil
In Asia, Thailand and South Korea have the highest GDP exposure to imported oil & so the violence today in Korea and Thai markets reflects fear how that will play out. Note that this is negative for Asia in general but...
CP Axtra's RM1.66B Deal Consolidates Malaysia's Grocery Market
The Malaysian grocery landscape just changed forever. 🚨 Thai retail giant CP Axtra (the power behind Lotus’s) is officially acquiring 100% of The Food Purveyor for RM1.66 billion. 💰 By Q4 2026, the group will control 120 stores nationwide, blending the scale...
Full Fee Disclosure Drives Client to Switch Banks
A client moved to me after 6 years with a private bank. He didn't leave because of poor performance. He left because he finally saw the full fee statement. His relationship manager had never shown him the total annual cost in dollars.
Software Buyout Lending Shows Near‑zero Default
No wonder direct lending to software buyouts was so popular. Out of 300+ loans that Blue Owl has made since inception, only one has defaulted. That one loan was to finance Vista Equity's $3.5 billion buyout of Pluralsight in 2021. Blue Owl...
Treasury Firms Lag Behind STRC's Bitcoin Playbook
It’s absolutely appalling that every single treasury company isn’t copying the STRC playbook. If I was running a Bitcoin treasury company, I’d have started the process to launch this months ago.
Company Sells OpCo, Returns 90% Proceeds, Exceeds Market Cap
Sale followed by a large capital return - Co selling its entire OpCo while returning 90% of the proceeds to shareholders - Distributions alone exceed the co's current mcap - Plus you get a RemainCo with meaningful net cash and a small growth...
VOA Layoffs Cripple Audit, Obscuring Agency Finances
@KariLake calls mass layoffs at Voice of America and its parent agency "streamlining" An official US gov't audit could not reach conclusions on agency's finances because it failed to provide even basic info - in part because staff had been so...
DIEM's $645 Price Implies 57% Failure Risk
I maintain that @AskVenice is undervalued at current price. $DIEM at $645 is pricing in a 57% annual failure rate. The perpetuity model. A perpetuity is an asset that pays you a fixed amount forever… a bond that never matures. Government bonds,...
Fitch Downgrades Paramount‑Skydance Debt to Junk After WBD Deal
Paramount Skydance Debt Downgraded to Junk Status by Fitch Ratings Following Warner Bros. Discovery Deal https://t.co/bBiUN3grT5 via @variety
10‑20% Growth Unlocks Cash Extraction After $1M
Extracting capital from a fast growing eCom business is nearly impossible. But there's a sweet spot where it does make sense. I surveyed 200+ store owners to figure out where. Here's what I found: The magic growth range is 10-20% annual revenue growth. Half of...
Don't Default to Lower L
When your DSCR doesn't hit the bank’s threshold (usually a ~1.25x DSCR), most people think banks don't give you any option but to lower the LTV But in reality, if you negotiate, you have 3 options: Option 1: Lower LTV Option 2: Schedule...
Allocators Swap BCRED Redemptions for Discounted BXSL
Allocators are funding a logical switch trade: Redeeming BCRED at NAV to buy $BXSL at an -11% discount to NAV. Look for this dynamic to occur between every other private credit fund with both a non-traded and listed BDC.
Pick the Right Sale Type for Your Exit Goals
How much of your business do you want to sell? Should you pursue a minority, majority, or full sale transaction? Founders looking to exit or raise capital have to decide which is the best path to achieve your goals, both...
Preserve Capital, Tighten Stops Until Post‑conflict Rally
As always, risk management is paramount. In a market under distribution, tightening stops and prioritizing capital preservation isn’t just prudent — it’s essential. When the tape refuses to reward low-risk setups and breakouts fail to follow through, discipline becomes your greatest...