Global Doubt Threatens US Debt Sustainability
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)? https://t.co/cvbv3WDank
AI Job Shock Could Threaten 10% of Australian Mortgages
When AI Hits Jobs: Macquarie Warns Mortgage Stress Could Ripple Through Australia's Banks AI-driven employment shocks could put 10% of mortgage payments at risk. Banks currently priced for "near-perfect outcomes" with minimal buffer. Australia's steady growth masks historical unemployment spikes: 11%...
RIA Valuations Dip as Earnouts Grow Longer
This is, indirectly, how valuation multiples for RIAs are starting to come down slightly. Because the headline number of "such-and-such got a certain multiple of EBITDA" isn't the walk-away-with-cash valuation, it's the valuation including post-closing growth contingencies. In the past, that...
ECB Embraces Tokenized Securities with 2026 DLT Rollout
🔥 Product-Market Fit so strong, even the stablecoin-skeptical European Central Bank is planning tokenized securities. Pontes (Short-term Solution): A technical distributed ledger technology solution scheduled to launch in Q3 2026. It will allow market participants to settle transactions in central bank money using...
Ripple Initiates $750M Buyback, Valuation Jumps to $50B
NEW: Ripple launches $750M share buyback, values company at $50B, up from $40B in November
Iceye Revenue Doubles to $294M, Targets Another Double
.@Iceye 2025 financials: Revenue doubled, to $294M, & will double again this year; $153M in operating cash flow; EBITDA over $176M; $1.76B in backlog. https://t.co/FaGdnli5TX https://t.co/IqCzJ853gK
2028 Will Force Massive Software Debt Rollovers
A lot of software debt is going to have to be rolled over in 2028. Via Torsten Slok https://t.co/Ddov6qo7ey
Management Quality Trumps Cheap Valuation in Investing
A cheap stock with a bad management team is not a good investment. Valuation means nothing if the people running the business are misallocating capital, chasing the wrong metrics, or treating the company like their personal piggy bank. I look for leaders...
UK 10‑Year Yields Top 4.7% Amid Oil Surge
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
Private Credit Stress Forces Market to Reprice Risk
Macro: private-credit stress rising; Key: valuation opacity at Blue Owl, higher rates; Risks: hidden losses, redemptions; Trade: cut private-credit exposure. Takeaway: market to reprice risk. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Tokenization Unlocks Liquidity for $2T Private Credit Market
Private credit is a ~$2 Trillion market and growing. Now 5 major private credit funds halted redemptions. The assets are illiquid but investors expect liquidity and price discovery. This is exactly what tokenization solves.
Stress‑test Margins for Hidden Energy, Rate, Regulatory Shocks
Have you asked yourself this? “How robust are our operating margins and cash positions if this so-called 2.4% US inflation is merely a lagging indicator, and we’re confronted with a sustained 20% energy cost shock, still-high interest rates, and regulatory upsets...
2026 Private Credit Funds Mirror 200
A Private Credit Fund of Funds in 2026 seems to rather closely resemble a CDO-squared in early 2007.
Clients Discover They're Financially Better Off Than Expected
One of the quickest things that becomes obvious when I start working with someone new is that they're almost always doing better than they thought. They come to me convinced they can't afford to pay themselves or that things just aren't...
SPACs Flood Market as IPOs Raise $11.7 B
After a flurry of IPOs that raised $11.7 billion this year, a new crop of blank-check firms are joining a long queue: all the other vehicles waiting for the chance to take a company public https://t.co/LpBCk25L1r
Domo's $184M Market Cap Trades Below 1× Revenue
Domo is now a $184M market cap public company with price targets <1.0x revenue https://t.co/raThmSAagE
PANW Launches $1B Buy
$PANW: a new $1B buyback. From the old plan they bought $1B in 5 days in Feb. #Conviction.
Bumble's Cash Flow Outpaces Valuation, Fueling Short Squeeze
Bumble is printing cash. Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $71.6m vs $63m guidance. Guides for $78m adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026. Just $413m net debt end of 2026. No cash taxes for the foreseeable future. Should do ~$200m FCF in 2026...
Tilman Fertitta in Exclusive Talks to Acquire Caesars at $34
SCOOP: Billionaire Tilman Fertitta has been in exclusive talks to buy Caesars Entertainment for around $34/sh. https://t.co/Mz8usEYgRm
Free First-Year Corporate Tax Filing with Fondo
Staying on top of tax deadlines sucks. Cool new feature from Fondo making it easier for founders.
Rising Yields Signal Dollar Surge, Growth De‑Risking Continues
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
AI-Powered Profit Forecasting for Consistent Margin Growth
Predict profit like a prophet. With the Prophit Engine from CTC. Clarity, accountability and capacity woven into a single human operator. Forecast more accurately Grow contribution margin more consistently All while saving money. Combining the explosion of AI with the...
AI Replaced $396K CFO, Saved $216K Annually
At my company Full Focus, we were paying $33,000/month for fractional CFO and outsourced accounting. $396K annually. We restructured around AI—hired an AI architect and controller support for $15K/month. Saved $216,000 a year. And the financial analysis we’re getting now is...
Private Credit Becomes Subprime as Fraud Spreads
Private credit is the subprime of this cycle. Fraud is accumulating across asset classes. Automated underwriting blessing whatever numbers it gets fed. Nobody cares until everyone cares at the same time.
Leveraged Buybacks, Not AI, Drive IBM, Oracle, CRM
Levering up to buy back stock is the playbook of IBM and old Oracle... not a company pioneering a new AI age CRM is borrowing to buy time, not growth
Finance Leaders Evaluate only Three Vendors Before Demos
The magic number is 3. We asked 100 CFOs and VPs of Finance how many vendors they closely evaluate when buying software. 50% said exactly 3. Median: 3. Mean: 4.1. 53% evaluate 3 or fewer. This is a brutally small window. Think about what this...
Easy Financial's Collapse: Massive Losses, CEOs Flee
What The Heck Happened At Easy Financial? This Ain't Looking Good The parent company Goeasy Ltd. revised earnings for the last 2 years downward, declared spectacular Loan Losses, suspended dividends & the stock price dropped over 50% It's fishy for sure...
Fear of Numbers Stops Creatives From Hiring Bookkeepers
The number one reason creative business owners give for not hiring a bookkeeper is "I'm not sure I can afford it." But the reason they don't know if they can afford it is usually because they don't know their numbers. The...
AI Giant Issues $25B Debt to Boost Stock
The AI poster child is issuing $25B in debt to buy back its own stock. Not to invest in AI. Not to acquire capabilities. To support the share price. That's the strategy. $CRM
Worst Loans Hit First as Credit Cycles Collapse
FWIW - As the worst loans are made at the very peak of the credit cycle, credit cycles invariably burst on a LIFO basis. The worst always go first, and frequently through a high-storey window leaving no skid marks.
Finance Lessons From Disney+ Launch: Forecast, Retention, Board Clarity
The surprisingly true story of launching Disney+ (as told by their finance team) 👇 Here are 5 lessons that stuck with me. 1. Even a beloved brand doesn't make the forecast easier 2. A good launch number can hide a...
MSTR Spends $1B Annually on Zero‑yield Assets
The capital structure of $MSTR costs just under $1BN to fund every year. The assets of the company earn zero yield. The carry is paid by issuance.
UST 2s Offer Yield Above SOFR Funding Rate
Generally, this has been good value for UST 2s. Chart of yield less funding rate (SOFR) https://t.co/jPLWuxmxaW
Biotech Winter: Funding Freeze, IPO Surge, Path to Thaw
Biotech Science at Less Than Zero | Ep. 955 https://t.co/4DXKsaKXdO [00:49] Biotech capital winter deep dive [01:17] Scientific leaps vs frozen markets [02:31] The 2020–2021 biotech bubble [03:42] Crossover funds fuel IPO surge [04:56] Interest rates freeze biotech funding [07:58] Negative enterprise value phenomenon [10:37] Why Big Pharma...
UNF Shareholders Receive $155 Cash Plus Cintas Shares
Deals deals and ..one long expected….Unifirst(UNF) and Cintas((CTAS) UNF holders getting combo of $155 cash per shr+0.7720 shr of CTAS
USTs Slide as Record IG Issuance Fuels Supply Pressure
Oddly USTs under pressure ahead of what is expected to be a soft Feb CPI (0.2 core) print. Supply seems to be part of it. Yesterday's 11-deal IG issuance ($66B) was the biggest single session on record.
NICL Shows Modest Gains but Remains Low‑rated
#NICL decent results. Cash (I think that's Net) £55.7m (up). Interesting Brand Licence with #APN (I hold APN). ShareScope has fwd p/e 13.6 falling to 12.9 and fwd Divvy 3.7% rising to 3.9%; strip out cash it's lowly rated. I...
JPMorgan's Loan Write‑downs Expose Private Credit Valuation Fragility
JPMorgan is marking down the value of some software-related loans in private credit portfolios. This highlights how fungible private loan valuations have become at a time of little liquidity, and raises questions about which firms are doing a better job...
Tokenize Quality Credit, Not TradFi’s Worst Mistakes
private credit. "liquid funds." continuation funds same dog shit, new wrapper. dog shit squared for once, let's tokenize quality, not re-engineer tradfi's worst mistakes on-chain and be the buyer of last resort
Fast Loans and Direct Payroll Integration Ensure Employee Pay
At @fiftyyears we gave fast loans and even connected our personal bank accounts to portfolio companies' payroll systems to ensure they could pay their employees.
Salesforce to Issue $25B Debt for Share Buyback
Salesforce $CRM is reportedly planning to sell as much as $25 billion worth of debt in order to fund its share buyback plan - Bloomberg
Morningstar Flags Discounted BDC Asset Sales as Rating Risk
Morningstar warning to BDCs: "We view selling assets at substantial discounts to fair value as a significant sign of stress, which would likely have negative credit rating implications."
Buffett Warns Against Hoarding Cash, Favors Buybacks
Warren Buffett at the 2017 Berkshire Hathaway meeting, on repurchases and excess cash: "There’s no way I can come back here three years from now and tell you we hold $150 billion or more in cash, and we think we’re...
AI Is Already Replacing 80% of Junior Analysts
AI can do 80% of junior analyst work right now. And it's coming for mid-level next. Here's how to stay relevant. I've been thinking about this a lot lately. Everyone says advisory is safe because it's about relationships and "professional touch." I...
Withdraw Your Profits When Business Starts Thriving
“Many people, even when their company achieves success, will continue to leave their profits and initial capital in the company... Once things are rolling, you need to get your money back out of the company.” – 21 Stupid Things (2016)...
Boaz Weinstein Discusses Private Credit Strategies
Our latest "Inside Alts" newsletter comprises a half-hour interview with Boaz Weinstein on private credit. https://t.co/EpwRZMKNzH https://t.co/ncDLXCEHm3
ARR Figures Often Inflated; Cash Conversion Remains a Leaky Bucket
You might be surprised how many companies lie about ARR (or stretch the truth). But also how many CFOs and CEOs can’t explain how their ARR number turns into cash. It’s often a very leaky bucket. https://t.co/lV11H5wOXj
Pershing Square Launches $5B Closed‑end IPO, Offers Management Shares
Pershing Square has filed for a $5 billion IPO of a closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA $PSUS. Additionally, Pershing Square Inc. will go public under the symbol $PS. Buyers of the closed-end fund IPO will also receive shares in the management company. Interesting...
Aramco Launches $3B Buyback, Re‑nationalising After IPO
Having IPO-ed only 6½ years and with a tiny free float, Saudi Aramco announces what effectively is a partial re-nationalisation with a share buyback of up to $3 billion over the next 18 months. That’s going to buy-back ~10% of...
NexG's Penny‑stock Gamble Triggers RM130 M Loss
SHOCKWAVE: Malaysian tech giant NexG just reported a RM130.88 Million net loss. The culprit? A disastrous gamble on volatile penny stocks that wiped out core business profits. This isn't just a loss, it's a corporate earthquake. #NexGCrisis #FinancialMismanagement #Stocks