Chase Durable ROIC, Not Just Growth
"Durable ROIC is the economic signature of a high-quality business". Most investors chase growth. The best investors chase durable ROIC. 📈 Return on Invested Capital tells you how efficiently a company turns capital into profits—and the durable part is what separates great businesses from average ones.
Should SaaS Buy AI or AI Buy SaaS?
I am not sure if more SaaS companies should buy AI startups so they can catch up on tech Or… If more AI companies should buy cheap SaaS companies for the distribution and plug int their stuff
EchoStar Dismisses $1T SpaceX IPO, Faces $1.4B Debt
.@EchoStar's Ergen on $1 trillion+ @SpaceX IPO valuation: 'No amount is crazy here.' @HughesConnects subsidiary has $1.4B in debt due in Aug. EchoStar noncommital on paying it. @NSIL_India wants $117M in Hughes compensation for scrapping sat capacity deal. https://t.co/SLW1OgmkVx https://t.co/73JNfEGG6Z
Oracle Bets $100B Debt to Power AI Data Centers
Oracle is building yesterday's data centers with tomorrow's debt Frontier labs like OpenAI want the newest chips. But Nvidia is shipping a new generation annually while data centers still take years to get up and running. That's a mismatch for the...
Questioning Zero‑Marking of Jiffy Lube Private Credit Loans
"Golub Capital will act as sole administrative agent and joint lead arranger on the financing. Ares Credit funds and MidCap Financial will also act as joint lead arrangers on the financing." Should we be marking the private credit loans to Jiffy...
Ellison's $150B Loss Dwarfs Warner's Value
When Larry Ellison made the bid for Warner Discovery, his net worth was $350 billion. Today it's $200 billion. That's down $150 billion, more than the entire value of Warner. Keep that in mind as the Saudis retrench investments. https://t.co/DvJ2hRN8H1 https://t.co/Cv09NOzsS4
DSX Raises Offer, Poison Pill Hinders GNK Takeover
$DSX isn’t giving up on acquiring $GNK - New bid at $23.50/shr (~14% above the rejected offer) - Spread ~7% - DSX (owns 14.5%) brought in $SBLK as a deal partner - Might be interesting at these levels - But keep in mind management...
Record Corporate Debt Signals Potential Credit Bubble
IS THE CREDIT BUBBLE HERE? Record Corporate Debt Explained | Trading Zone Ep. 94 https://t.co/saPNeSSafk
Record Corporate Debt Sparks Credit Bubble Concerns
IS THE CREDIT BUBBLE HERE? Record Corporate Debt Explained | Trading Zone Ep. 94 https://t.co/22SJSkFetj
Systems, Not Hustle, Scale Capital Through Reduced Friction
You don’t scale capital with hustle. You scale it with systems. Systems reduce friction at every step. Reduced friction lowers hesitation. Lower hesitation accelerates commitments. Over time, that compound effect is enormous. 🔗 Tribevest #structureisstrategy #capitalraising #raisingcapital #fundoffunds
Private Credit Market Poised for Next Major Collapse
BDC stocks down 24% from their July 2025 peak. Private credit defaults running 3-5%. PIK financing near post-pandemic highs. The $2 trillion private credit market is the next shoe to drop. Nobody's watching. https://t.co/sa91wkf10G
IPO Market Open Now, but Could Close Fast
Feb. 4: "The IPO window is wide open, but it can slam shut quickly." https://t.co/ojxYOaYx7R
Holding Dead Inventory Signals Credit‑driven Insolvency Risk
“Poorly operating businesses like to keep un-useable inventory in stock because they need the asset to justify their bank line of credit. If this describes your case... your business will have a hard time selling because... you’re likely insolvent.” –12...
G7 Finance Ministers Address Global Economy Amid Middle East Conflict
Today, on the invitation of Minister Roland Lescure of France, which holds the G7 Presidency, I took part in a meeting of G7 Finance Ministers on the global economic situation and Middle East conflict. My statement on the meeting: https://t.co/NnpeYX73nn...
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 40% Amid Oil Surge
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
EPF Holds Up RM11B Sunway‑IJM Takeover Amid Val
RM11B Sunway-IJM Takeover: The Great GLC Standoff The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and major institutional shareholders are officially in a holding pattern, freezing an RM11 billion power shift as the Independent Advice Circular faces strategic delays. This regulatory bottleneck creates a...
Popular Frameworks Aren’t One‑size‑fits‑all; Ditch What Stresses You
Honest confession — I tried Profit First when I first started my business because everyone swore by it. Five accounts, constantly moving money around, paying bank fees I didn't need to be paying. It genuinely stressed me out more than it...
Boost Forecast Accuracy, Margin, and Savings with Prophit Engine
Our new Prophit Engine service is now live. In this episode I cover: Who’s it for Why you should care And how to get started. https://t.co/iSLVAmatFe My challenge to every founder, CFO or CMO is to listen and ask yourself if 1)...
Kalshi's Oil Futures: A Second‑Derivative Market Twist
Kalshi markets on oil futures is crazy because it’s a 2nd derivative. Current oil price-> CL futures (first derivative) -> Kalshi (2nd derivative). Leads to very odd dynamics if Kalshi markets get big enough
AI Will First Upend Math‑heavy, Quantitative Jobs
The next wave of AI disruption may hit unexpected professions first. Peter Thiel suggests roles built around mathematics and quantitative analysis could be more exposed than language-heavy work. Banks are already hinting that advances in AI could mean leaner teams in finance....
High Rates Squeeze Private Credit, Raising Borrowers’ Cost
Private credit is in a strange place today. The economy is tied to the cost of money. Low interest rates mean cheap borrowing, which in theory should lead to higher utilization of credit facilities. Conversely, high interest rates mean less affordable...
Revenue Swaps Undermine Trust, Lead to Shelfware
This has been happening for a long time. Often there is a potential legitimate reason to buy each other’s stuff, but…it more often than not ends up as shelfware. In diligence, I always compare new customer close dates to new vendor...
AI Boosts Productivity, but Also Fuels Fraud Surge
AI cuts costs. AI also cuts the cost of fraud. The same tooling driving efficiency is fueling the fraud surge. Financial services can't run an AI productivity strategy without a parallel fraud controls strategy. AI was meant to boost productivity. It...
Junk Bond Drop Signals Real Economic Stress
High yield credit (HYG) down 0.5% on March 6th. When junk bonds sell off alongside equities, it means credit markets are sniffing out real economic stress, not just a volatility event. Watch HYG. It leads. Always. https://t.co/HpbzOsBALw
Axel Springer Unlikely to Pursue Big Deals, WSJ Stays Murdoch
NEW @PuckNews: On heels of Telegraph acquisition, Mathias Döpfner told charges that Axel Springer was unlikely to make more big acquisitions in near future, noting that Murdochs were unlikely to sell The Wall Street Journal, which Springer couldn’t afford anyway. https://t.co/1NKCcK3NXz
Your BlackRock Worries Likely Miss the Real Issue
If you saw the BlackRock headline this week and your first thought was "should I be worried about my own investments," you're not the only one. But the thing you're worried about probably isn't what you think it is.
Foreign Investors Boost US Assets 31% in 2025
Despite what you read daily in the press, the de-dollarization narrative doesn’t have legs. In 2025, overseas investors bought a net $1.55 trillion in long term US financial assets. That’s UP 31.4% since 2024. https://t.co/NUFKLfdh4l
ARR Hides Five Metrics; Track Them All
Most SaaS founders know their ARR. Very few can explain where it came from. I've sat in dozens of board meetings where someone says "ARR is up 20%" and the room nods. Then a board member asks "how much of that...
Holding Cash Is the Biggest Investment Risk
She had $1.2 million in cash. Three years. Waiting for the "right time" to invest. She thought cash was safe. Zero risk. She didn't realise she was already taking the biggest risk of all.
Construction Stocks Squeezed by Takeover Rumors and Regulatory Scrutiny
Stop scrolling if you hold construction equities. Takeover rumors are actively destroying contract values right now. 1. MACC probe costs IJM a data center deal 2. MoF intercepts Sunway takeover of IJM 3. State funds clash over MRCB mega-merger Detailed Breakdown ↓↓↓ #BursaMalaysia #Equities
Secondary Market Signals Private Credit Defaults Over 20%
The thing is, the current secondary market prices of liquid private credit vehicles (BDCs) are implying a default rate north of 20%, far in excess of anything experienced during the GFC and greater than UBS’s draconian “worst case” scenario
Instant $68M Inter‑Company Settlements Using USDC
We’re eating our own dog food. We’ve begun using our own platform to settle inter-company settlements — $68M across 8 entities. Under 30 minutes. 24/7. Our Treasury team did this with USDC and Circle Mint — replacing fiat wires that take 1-3...
Malaysia Sees Major Corporate and Legal Shifts
Major Business News on March 6, 2026: 1. Court of Appeal to rule on RM1.7b pensioners payout 2. Ekovest secures 54-year highway concession 3. Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani nears mandatory offer threshold 4. Datuk Tiong King Sing exits Timberwell at RM12.8 million Source: The...
Withdrawal Freeze Signals Deep Liquidity Crisis at BlackRock
Thought? BlackRock investors rushed to pull their money out and withdrawals were suddenly locked. Halting withdrawals typically signals serious liquidity problems and can trigger panic in the financial system.
Future-Proof Cloud Costs: Strategies for a Volatile Decade
Cloud cost management strategies for upcoming volatile decade. < My comments within... https://t.co/Zpgqt1oMun #CIO #CostManagement #TBM #FinOps #Cloud
U.S. Airlines Skip Fuel Hedging, Margins Threatened by Iran Conflict
US airlines no longer hedge fuel costs. That could hurt margins if Iran conflict lingers - https://t.co/LvmzI2bxEL
LevelTen Index Misreads Solar Prices, Not Actual Costs
Okay. I've been seeing this make the rounds. It is just a large misunderstanding of the second graph, to the extent that it's drawing the wrong conclusions. The price of electricity from solar and wind in the US *has* flatlined...
Liquidity Overpromises Trigger Cascading Outflows Crisis
My partner @kieranwgoodwin has been so right about this space for over a year which has really sharpened my vision. Outflows beget outflows. Gating begets outflows. Selling some of the underlying portfolio to meet minimum redemptions creates losses and begets...
Private Credit Drain Threatens Compute Expansion Funding
If private credit sucks liquidity out of the market The hyperscalers max out their cash Then there isn't enough money in the world for the compute build out
Young Entrepreneur Risks $1.5M Loan, Builds 51k‑sq‑ft Storage
In 2016 we broke ground on our first self storage development. I had just turned 27 and had personally guaranteed a $1.5 million loan to make this happen. We put in about $500k of our own cash (from a small business we...
Private Credit Redemptions Stay Under 5% Cap Amid Bear Market
Despite the bear market in private credit, negative press, and poor performance of some BlackRock funds, the quarterly redemption requests for its non-traded BDC came in below the 5% cap. https://t.co/36ABXJ1FCK
VIX Mock Rally Lifts
$VIX Mock cheer for COR1M, up from the dead/all time lows during earnings season to last spring and last Nov levels https://t.co/Ykw6arRCk3
Dunkin's Parent IPO Beats SpaceX and OpenAI
The year's most important IPO isn't for SpaceX or OpenAI. It would be for the parent company of Dunkin' (do I need SpaceX or OpenAI every day? nope. but my iced coffee is a nonnegotiable) https://t.co/6kXbsBReYh
MiniMed IPO Misses Expectations, Priced at $20
Oof. Only IPO of the week falls way short of expectations. MiniMed priced at $20 per share, versus $25-$28 range.
Kazakhstan Central Bank to Deploy $350M Into Crypto‑Linked Funds
NEW: Kazakhstan’s central bank is set to invest up to $350M from its reserves into the crypto sector. The strategy targets crypto-linked equities and funds, not direct purchases of digital assets. The program could start in April or May. https://t.co/RlEGwWKYzs
Finance Leaders Stress Data Foundations Over Analytics
Most FP&A teams don’t struggle with analytics. They struggle with data. 💡Finance leaders from PepsiCo, BILL, and Workday shared how they build strong data foundations and a single source of truth to enable AI and predictive decision-making: https://t.co/FnD9BnrjT6 #fpatrends
Corporate Updates: Asset Freeze, Earnings, Investment Review, Margin Strain
Major Business News to Track Today, March 6, 2026: 1. MACC seeks asset freeze on Tun Daim Zainuddin's family 2. Gamuda to release Q2 earnings report 3. MIDA to announce 2025 investment performance 4. AirAsia X faces margin threats amid fuel hike ↓↓↓
Fed
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
Rising PITI Costs Shatter 2020‑24 Sales Threshold
Total PITI costs surged for housing and in a QM lending environment that was set to crush sales. I had a price model limit for 2020-2024: if we didn't surpass 23% during those five years, we would be okay; we...
Terminal Values Are Just DCF Shortcuts via Multiples
Terminal values are themselves short-hands for DCFs. This is because a terminal value is essentially a multiple. And a multiple is a short-cut for a DCF. More in the memo below 👇