Serial Acquirers Turn Cash Into Endless High‑Return Growth
One of the biggest reasons investors get excited about serial acquirers: They solve the reinvestment problem. In most businesses, good reinvestment opportunities are limited. You fund the core projects, maybe expand capacity, invest in product… and after that, the incremental dollar usually earns a lower return. And cash starts to pile up. Owners either return the cash to shareholders… or start stretching into lower-quality projects just to put the money to work. Serial acquirers work differently. Instead of relying only on internal projects, they build a repeatable machine to acquire businesses that meet strict return thresholds. Do it well, and you create a long runway to keep deploying capital. The cash doesn’t sit on the balance sheet. It gets recycled into the next acquisition. And the next one. In the best cases, the model allows you to reinvest close to 100% of free cash flow at high rates of returns for many years, even decades.
Spirit Airlines Files Second Chapter 11, Aims Reorganization by 2026
Spirit Airlines is in Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the second time in a little over a year. While many assumed the airline would liquidate, the company insists it has a plan to reorganize, which will be completed by early summer...
PETS Faces 30% Decline, Cash Burn Threatens Survival
$PETS is down about 30% since January. Not a surprise, it looked far too risky at those prices, and management did not seem particularly eager to sell. Operations seem to be deteriorating quarter after quarter. In Q3 (Dec ’25 end), revenue declined...
VC IRR Decay 2017‑18 Exposes Overvalued Positions
VC IRR decay for 2017 and 2018 has been bad. And this was before the SaaSpocalypse. IRRs driven by big positions held at last round valuations. What would they look like at true fmv? https://t.co/sLIC9dcEyo
Buffett & Munger Reveal True Cost of Equity
Most investors misunderstand the cost of equity. Below is the most explicit Buffett has ever been on his cost of equity... BUT the real insights come from Charlie Munger's push back and Buffett's Punch Card Idea ⬇️Link⬇️
Government's 71% Fee Threat Sparks Outrage
Leaving aside the bad precedent (govt threatening to shut down a co unless it gets paid), the fee itself is kinda insane. The entire enterprise value was only around $14 billion. So this would be a 71% “banker’s” fee.
Partial Recap During Growth Boosts Valuation and Upside
Because founders are famously optimistic about the future of their business, selling their company during a growth phase may feel like giving away too much upside. A couple things to think about in this case: 1. A liquidity event is...
Verizon Drops Wireless Revenue, Merges Into FIOS
Friday afternoon 8K. $VZ no longer reporting wireless service revenue. Rolling FIOS into that line. So weak. #SchulmanEffect https://t.co/XRxvo6vwvp
Private Credit Risks Echo 2008 as Oil Spikes
Multiple headlines today about the parallels between now and the run-up to the GFC. From Bloomberg: "BofA’s Hartnett Warns Markets Starting to Look Like 2008." From the FT: "Should investors worry about a 2008-style shock?" The key concern: oil prices...
Banks Shifted $300B Risk to Private Credit Funds
$300B in bank loans to private credit funds, BDCs, and CLOs. "Private credit moved risk out of the banking system" was always the pitch. The banks just lent to the funds instead of the borrowers.
Private Credit Systemic Risk Fears Are Pure Nonsense
Fears of systemic risk in private credit are "just absolute nonsense" according to Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research and Investment Strategy @OneCarlyle Full pod out now with Jason, Dan Nathan & @GuyAdami 🎙️ https://t.co/0D9pdKUCGy
Debt Extensions and Aggressive Cuts Signal Upcoming Layoffs
VCs are telling their port cos with debt to start the extension process early And PE folks are planning aggressive cuts to boost EBITDA in preparation We will see lots of layoffs here… https://t.co/t5Rfcdpvvm
Poland to Fund Program Using Unrealized Gold Gains
Based on what Glapinski said during his press conference two days ago, all indications are, as I expected, that the plan is to use unrealised gains on the NBP's gold to fund the programme. https://t.co/csre6RPhlr
Megafunds Surge: Billions Raised Across Top VC Firms
It’s getting a little cliche over here to say but… Megafunds are riding high. If any week was proof of that, it was this one. First, TechCrunch reported Monday on Founders Fund’s rumored $6 billion growth fund that’s in the works. The same day,...
Intangibles Outvalue Factories; Investors Must Adapt
Intangible assets—things like brand reputation, proprietary knowledge, and organizational capabilities—have become more valuable than physical factories and equipment...how are investors capturing this information? by @larryswedroe https://t.co/CW1mUsiweK https://t.co/Hu32LLmXw8
Public Record Undermines Lazy Valuation, Raises Premium Bid Stakes
New on $MAPS: I think the public record is now strong enough to reject lazy, tape-anchored valuation—and strong enough to make a future “premium” bid answer much harder questions than management might like. Linked below. 1/2 https://t.co/ApS7y2tctJ
Cambricon Announces First Dividend After 2025 Profit
Cambricon to pay maiden dividend after turning profitable in 2025 The Shanghai-listed chip designer will distribute a cash dividend of 15 yuan for every 10 shares, its first since listing in 2020 https://t.co/c1zpgVUBl1 via @scmpnews
Master Your Metrics: Investor Trust Starts With Data Confidence
Founders, know your numbers inside and out. Be ready to answer detailed questions about your financials. Confidence in your data builds investor trust and shows you have a firm grasp on your business’s metrics.
Swire Pacific Raises HK$1.79bn, Keeps 45% Cathay Stake
Swire Pacific has sold 153,059,000 shares in Cathay Pacific, with the net proceeds expected to reach HK$1.789 billion. Swire will retain 45.12% ownership of the airline after the sale. HKEX filing: https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0313/2026031300119.pdf
Bank Pull‑backs Expose Private‑credit Risk Like 2008
The part that rhymes with 2006-2008 is that Banks were providing warehouse lines to Mortgage Co.'s who would then originate mortgages & Wall Street would buy them, repackage them (MBS/CDO's) & sell them to the world. When delinquencies spiked, the...
Local Currency Checkout Boosts International SaaS Revenue 20‑40%
Worked with 60+ startups and a common repeated mistake that left a lot of money on the table: Charging international users in USD The data is pretty clear — local currency checkout increases international conversion by 20-40% SaaS founders can now do this...
Creator Launches Open-Source AI Hedge Fund for All
This guy made an AI Hedge Fund... Then open-sourced it for everyone to use. This is the story.
MSTR Overvalued, STRC Cheapest—Buy IBIT Instead
Let me summarize my view on $MSTR The entire capital structure is rich to BTC. Except for the fact that the company will issue at par as much of $STRC as investors want to buy AND only issuance or BTC...
AI Agents and Real‑Time Planning Drive FP&A 2026
🔮What is next for FP&A in 2026? From AI agents and explainable ML to integrated real-time planning and autonomous insights, our final FP&A Trends Webinar of 2025 covered 5 key trends for 2026 and beyond: https://t.co/S2cTWIhcUz #fpatrends #aiinfinance #digitaltransformation
Wirecard Warned Us—Are We Finally Spotting Red Flags?
#FlashbackFriday In 2020, I suggested Wirecard wasn’t an anomaly but a preview. Have we learned to spot the red flags yet? https://t.co/X77GE1HPPS Yesterday’s future. Progress optional. #Fintech #CorporateGovernance #RiskManagement
Turning NYC Budget Woes Into Future Strength
Great conversation tonight with @errol.louis on @ny1 about NYC’s budget challenges, the negative outlook from Moody’s, and how we can come out of this stronger.
Private Credit Outperforms Amid Fed Uncertainty
The Weekly Quill — Res Ipsa Loquitur Private Credit Speaks for Itself From Danielle DiMartino Booth and #QIResearch https://t.co/puLw4aiRoS #federalreserve #powell #economy #dimartinobooth #privatecredit. #credit https://t.co/rQ1Eu6Honk
2‑Year Treasury Yields Spike to Highest Since August 2025
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
Firefly Aerospace Schedules Q4 2025 Results for March 19
Firefly Aerospace to Announce Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results on March 19, 2026 $FLY https://t.co/QWqknd6N2Y
Western Private Credit Crisis Mirrors Economic Involution
In which I argue that the West’s developing private credit crisis is just its equivalent of “involution”. https://t.co/1wAWnParft
ACX to Equity Exposes Crypto’s Flawed Tokenomics
Across Protocol is converting ACX to equity. Kain, Luca Netz & Tay discuss: ⚖️ The trade-offs that come with the move 💔 How it highlights crypto's broken tokenomics 💡 What the crypto industry can do to fix it https://lnkd.in/ebpuGyq7
Liquidity for Forced Direct‑Loan Sellers Set to Outperform
Good take below. I agree that a strategy providing liquidity to forced sellers of direct loans, due to elevated outflows, will be one of the best performing investment strategies over the next 3 years.
Merger Arbitrage Yields Still Low, No Arbageddon Yet
While we're seeing panic in certain areas of the market (private credit), it has not translated to merger arbitrage, where the current average yield of 10.8% is far below a March 2020-type environment. Once we see arbitrage yields nearing 20%, then...
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Bets Are Long‑term; Don't Follow
MicroStrategy bought 17,994 Bitcoin at $70k. But they also bought at $90k and $80k. They're playing a decade long game with a corporate balance sheet. You need to be cautious right now, you are not MicroStrategy.
Rule of 40 Shifts to Rule of 60: Adapt Now
Why The Rule of 40 is Becoming the Rule of 60 -- and What You Can Do About It. https://t.co/PN2EcIhJ8S
Tesla Swaps xAI Investment for SpaceX Stake
Tesla received government clearance to convert its investment in Elon Musk’s xAI into a small stake in SpaceX https://t.co/nd2PrT3EOF
CFTC to Impose Strict Rules on Manipulable Prediction Markets
CFTC to set ‘rules of the road’ for prediction markets, Chair Selig says The guidance warns exchanges to avoid listing contracts that could be easily manipulated, citing examples such as bets tied to injuries or other narrowly defined sports outcomes. https://t.co/Dr13o6VPmA
Iran War Inflation Drives Terminal Rate to 3.37%
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
Spotting Private Credit Risks, Bubble Types, AI Content Farms
🆓 Thursday links: private credit exposure, good vs. bad bubbles, and detecting AI content farms. https://t.co/xz88DTLRXp chart: https://t.co/LjVlif34WF https://t.co/HdHakdmYPW
Private Credit's Low Multiples Raise Concerns for Later Creditors
I've never quite understood this either. Private credit is first in line during liquidations and they often lend 0.5x to 2.0x ARR when the transaction happens. After a few years of growth that's often <1x ARR and probably...
California's Billionaire Tax Would Cost Middle Class $2,500
A new @HooverInstitution study confirms what I’ve been saying for months. The CA Billionaire Tax has a negative NPV of -$24.7B. Meaning if this gets on the ballot and is approved in November, California doesn’t just collect less than promised,...
IPO Market Collapses as Pricing Plummets Across Sectors
IPO market in the toilet. First was MiniMed pricing low. Then PayPay. Now MDA Space, which goes well below its as-converted price in Toronto.
Major Firms Curb Withdrawals, Signaling a Liquidity Crisis
Entrepreneurs & Investors: We are in a LIQUIDITY CRISIS 🤯 First BlackRock, now Morgan Stanley limiting withdrawals?? Q2 will be very interesting…Oh, probably nothing 👀
Accelerated Buyback Could Boost $RELY Long-Term Price
Since you have a lot of free time on your hands now @matt_oppy, I would suggest running some quick numbers (can even have Claude do it for you) on what an accelerated buyback program could mean for the long-term share...
Fees Persist on Unredeemed Private Credit Even After Gates Lift
Reminder that investors who requested redemptions from semi-liquid private-credit funds -- but couldn't get all of it back due to caps -- still pay fees on the unfulfilled portion. The fees don't stop just because the gates go up.
Only Use Unsecured Loans when Cash Flow Covers Payments
“Although I caution anyone from doing unsecured loans, I have done some... To minimize risk [I make] sure that the money will be invested in a manner that will increase sales and profits at the business and also that the...
Deutsche Bank Repeats Risky Credit Expansion Despite Past Missteps
When the financial crisis was heating up, geniuses at Deutsche Bank opted to buy more "highly rated" tranches of mortgage backed securities. With that in mind, when I see that DB says they are expanding their private credit exposure, I...
Messy Books? No Shame—Let's Sort Them Together
The thing I get apologized to for most when someone first comes to me is how messy their books are. Please stop. Genuinely. Almost everyone who comes to me has a messy backlog. It's not a reflection of who you are,...
Coercive A&E Dominates $38B Software Maturity Market
The software maturity wall isn't a secret. Everyone has this chart. $38B in 2028. Mostly B and below. These aren't getting refinanced at par. They're getting extended. The only question is whether the A&E is consensual or coercive. And if the last...
OBDC's 25% NAV Discount Highlights Stale Marks
Blue Owl says the marks are real. Every sell-side analyst has a Buy. Yet $OBDC trades at a 25% discount to NAV. Finally had a chance to go through the portfolio. Found exactly what you'd expect: stale marks, understated software exposure,...