Disciplined Rotation: Spot AI Victims, Winners, and Priced Risks
We’re in a consolidation phase with growing cross-sector AI disruption fears, weakening tech leadership, falling yields, and increasing dispersion. This is the environment where you have to be disciplined, look at your portfolio honestly, and ask: – Is this company a potential AI victim? – Is it already priced for disruption? – Or is it positioned to benefit from the shift? This isn’t a broad “risk-off” panic yet rather it’s a structural rotation and repricing phase.
CFTC Claims Sole Authority over Prediction Markets, Defends Jurisdiction
NEW: CFTC chair Selig says the agency has exclusive authority over prediction markets and will defend its jurisdiction against state challenges. https://t.co/lOKfXA8tzw
Massive M&A Premiums: MASI, KW, ZIM Deals
Today's M&A notes $MASI to be acquired by $DHR for $180.00 cash, 38.3% premium, $9.9 billion $KW to be acquired by $FFH.to for $10.90 cash, 45.9% premium, $6.5 billion $ZIM to be acquired by $HLAGF for $35.00 cash, 125.8% premium, $4.2 billion https://t.co/ayupP5Rv2J
AppLovin's 66% Growth, 77% Margin, Stock Still Falls
$APP Growing 66% With 77% Operating Margin — Yet Stock Is Down 42% YTD AppLovin delivered numbers most software companies can’t even model. Revenue up +66% YoY. Operating margin at 77%. And yet the stock is still down 42% YTD. Valuation argument? Forward P/S around 16x. Forward...
Market Awaiting Decisive Breakout: Support or Resistance?
📺 THIS MARKET NEEDS RESOLUTION The market is stuck in a range. Breakouts fail, breakdowns bounce, and both longs and shorts get frustrated. We need a decisive move that breaks the range and sticks. That could mean: 🔻 A clean break below support $QQQ...
Strategy Holds 717k BTC, Avg Cost $76k
Strategy has acquired 2,486 BTC for ~$168.4 million at ~$67,710 per bitcoin. As of 2/16/2026, we hodl 717,131 $BTC acquired for ~$54.52 billion at ~$76,027 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/wvxRYZlQ3Y
New DSR Highlights Debt‑Equity Promise for Hyperscalers
New DSR released to clients. Part 3 in the Hamburger Series - Hyperscalers. As a reminder the idea is that to get a hamburger today one needs to promise to repay (issue debt and equity) on tuesday. ...
Global Bonds Yield Under 5%, Delivering ~2% Real Return
Almost 90% of global public bonds trade at a yield lower than 5%: Apollo's Torsten Slok. "With inflation at close to 3%, this means that investors in public fixed income only get a 2% real return each year." https://t.co/oCUWfCIGpn
X Adds Finance Tools: Smart Cashtags and Visa‑backed Money
The platform that popularized ragebait is bringing you better gambling: 📉 @X will roll out Smart Cashtags, enabling users to view data on stocks and cryptocurrencies directly from their timeline. 💸 X Money is currently in closed beta with employees. A public...
CIOs Push CEOs to Cut Capex, Strengthen Balance Sheets
"capex too hot right now …CIOs telling CEOs to improve balance sheets (35% from 26%) vs. increase capex (20% from 34%) as FMS investors saying corps 'overinvesting' at new record high" - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/ciu0wy6GZP
DEBS Targets £35m Raise, Cuts Costs, Prioritises Cash Flow
#DEBS to do a fundraise of around £35m at 20p a share. Reiterates it's previous financial guidance and expects a lot of cost to come out of the business. New focus on Cash Flow.
Know Your Business Meal Deduction Risk Levels
A guide to business meal deductions Lower Risk • Occasional client lunch • Modest amounts • Clean documentation • Clear business relationship Moderate Risk • Frequent meals but defensible revenue • Slightly aggressive % of expenses • Documentation exists but is thin High Risk • Large meals relative to income • vague “business meeting” notes • No attendee names • Receipts missing • Pattern suggest disguised...
Truflation Emerges as Essential Investment Decision Signal
"We are beginning to see that @Truflation is becoming a key signal to drive investment decisions." - @therealsrust https://t.co/lsi9GM9p0d
2025 Profitability Snapshot: Sector Returns & Excess Gains
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
Private Credit Bets on Software Amid AI Uncertainty
Five private credit firms just provided $1.4B for a software buyout of OneStream valued at $6.4B. Same week everyone’s asking whether AI will make these companies obsolete. The market is telling you software is at risk. The lenders are telling you...
Master These 5 SaaS Metrics for Sustainable Growth
Every SaaS leader should master these 5 metrics. Bookings, retention, margins, OPEX, and efficiency — the core numbers behind durable growth and valuation. 🎥 https://t.co/ViVeSCTLXx #SaaS #SaaSMetrics https://t.co/bvoRB24XES
Weekly S&P 500 Chart Review Highlights Key Trends
ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/B5a4uBC2Q4 Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @MarketCharts @topdowncharts @dailychartbook @MauiBoyMacro @KobeissiLetter @StealthQE4 @HayekAndKeynes
Sector Rotation Ends; Brace for Upcoming Volatility
Given I timed the sector rotation with precision in Nov & said it would likely run until Feb, and we are here, I'm gonna share what else I also told clients: IN LIEU OF SECTOR ROTATION, THERE WILL BE VOLATILITY™️😉
Alphabet and Meta CDS Explode From Zero to Top Traders
A year ago, CDS on Alphabet and Meta didn't exist. Now they're among the most actively traded single-name contracts in the US market Nobody creates a default insurance market for fun... $GOOG $META
AI Disruption Drives Widening Credit Spreads Ahead of Earnings
AI disruption is hitting IG credit spreads, not just stock prices. Concentrix: BBB-rated, 455,000 call center employees. Paid 130bps concession to refinance. Stock down 24% last week. Spreads doubled in February. Credit markets pricing obsolescence before it shows up in earnings.
Amazon's High Capex-to-FCF Isn't New, Still Managed Well
Working on my $AMZN growth thesis report for this week, and just helpful to point out, that this high capex to FCF is not uncharted territory for Amazon. I get there is more competition this time than e-comm but they...
Analyst's Report Becomes VC Gospel, Raises Billions
This former analyst turned a single report into Silicon Valley gospel—then she raised billions to rewrite the rules of venture capital.
Eight Formulas Cut Reporting From Hours to Minutes
They told me their reports take 6 hours. I showed them 8 formulas. Now it takes 10 minutes. Join my free masterclass with Ramp on February 19th 👉 https://t.co/Aw0QFfIbL0 I've seen this pattern dozens of times. Smart FP&A teams. Good analysts. Solid finance...
Reeves Gains Momentum as UK Debt Interest Falls
UK’s Reeves is set to get a boost from falling debt interest https://t.co/iirQy0fcBA via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/R8A0t6Sj29
Stand Out in FP&A: Unique Capabilities Beat Plateau
Why do FP&A careers plateau? Not because of performance—but because, at promotion time, top finance talent starts to look alike. Nicholas Bell (Clyde & Co), on the capabilities that set him apart on his path to Head of FP&A. 🔗 https://t.co/w8xraVQKjD #fpatrends #FinanceCareers https://t.co/BYjczXwbsO
Bobby Jain Launches $6B Multi‑strat Amid Portfolio Shift
Hedge fund portfolios are being shaped by the shift from banks, multi-manager scale, and public/private convergence. Bobby Jain (CEO/CIO, Jain Global) on launching a $6B multi-strat, talent & risk management, and portfolio construction. https://t.co/BfZsVcl2vY With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Chamath's SPACs Crash: All Lose Over 90%
Meanwhile Chamath Palihapitiya’s SPAC track record - Chamath became the face of the SPAC boom through his Social Capital Hedosophia deals. Their performance since? • $SPCE: −95% • $OPEN: −98% • $CLOV: −90% • $SOFI: −45% • $AKLI: −95% •...
Strategy Rebuys Bitcoin, Claims Debt Covered Even at $8k
The company Strategy bought Bitcoin again over the weekend during the dip. They also released a report, saying that even if BTC drops 88% to $8,000, there will still be enough funds to cover their debts. https://t.co/QEVfvePdHp
Harvard Converts $87M Bitcoin to Ethereum, Signals Shift
🚨 LATEST Harvard University just swapped $87M worth of Bitcoin into Ethereum. What do they know? 🤔 https://t.co/nkoSTj7upj
Open Architecture Drives Southeast Asian Wealth Management Transformation
Strategic Transformation in Southeast Asian #WealthManagement: The Case for Open Architecture – The most successful transformations share common elements: clear strategic positioning, authentic partnerships with #FinTech and #WealthTech platforms, and the courage to fundamentally rethink operating models. Read my latest article on...
Unclear if Gains Stem From Profit or Restructuring
Unsure whether this will be because they're in the money or via an out-of-court restructuring
Start with Reg D, Then Reg CF, Then Reg A+
How to raise capital online: 1: Start with Reg D 506(c) 2: Move into a Reg Cf 3: Move into a Reg A+ This is ordered by the fastest, easiest and most cost effective way to raise online. Companies with...
US‑China Gap Lies Beyond Financialization Share of GDP
Whatever the difference between the US and China may be and however you evaluate it, it isn’t in “financialization”, at least not as measured by the share of finance in GDP (h/t twitter account of devarbol for this graph). More...
S&P's Calm Mask Hiding Rising Dispersion and Volatility
The S&P 500 may appear calm on the surface, yet index-stock dispersion has increased dramatically and SPX has now slipped below the critical 6,900 level. With put skew rising and VIX expiration ahead, volatility risk is building. Read our latest...
Volatility Rises, Liquidity Dips, US Premium Deflates
What's on tap for the week ahead? An increased frequency of volatility meets a holiday liquidity gap, while a run of event risk weighs in on the steadily deflating US premium. https://t.co/17IH2lFIn0 https://t.co/AlKhX25xxn
FTSE250 Awaits Breakout Above 23,585 Amid Sideways Trend
#FTSE250 needs Breakout 23585. Doji going sideways. Support 22816, 22226. RSI 62 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Small Up Candle on Weekly and Sideways. Top Bollinger Band 23547. Midpoint Line 23330. Bottom Band 23118.
DAX Poised for Breakout as MACD Bull Cross Nears
#DAX doji Candle and Sideways. Resistance ATH 25508. Support 24272, 23924. On verge MACD Bull Cross. RSI 53 near Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Doji on Weekly and Sideways. Top Bollinger Band 25113. Midpoint Line 24800. Bottom Band 24500.
Warner Bros Eyes Paramount Deal Despite Netflix Matching Right
New: Warner Bros. is considering re-engaging with Paramount following its latest offer + pressure from some shareholders. WB still has a binding deal with Netflix, which would have the right to match any offer. Scoop with @MichelleF_Davis https://t.co/WLdpdeS0gc
CFOs Embrace Agentic AI for Strategy, Shy From Treasury Risks
How Agentic AI Went From Zero to CFO Test Runs in 90 Days survey by @pymnts https://t.co/6MXgAdb3Fx Enterprise CFOs in the US are interested in using agentic AI for strategic planning, but cautious about using it for treasury, risk and compliance. https://t.co/2NioUOuMrE
Simplify Systems, Not Competition, to Grow Small Business
Most small businesses fail from chaos, not competition. Growth starts with simple systems, clear checklists, and tools for scheduling, invoicing, and bookkeeping. Know your best customers, ask for feedback, and speak in their words. Build a small circle of mentors, track cash flow,...
AI-Powered Accounting Firm Launches Real-Time, Audit-Ready Service
.@Balance1189951 is an AI accounting firm for SMBs delivering real-time, audit-ready bookkeeping and accounting - run by AI, signed off by real accountants. Their agents pull in your financial context and automate your entire back-office finance. Congrats on the launch @mathiaslovring, @EmilMunkD,...
Strategists Misread CapEx, Overhype Free Cash Flow
I love how boomer strategists present the chart on free cash flows from the Mag 7 as rocket science. We learned on the first days at university that CapEx means less FCF in that year. Do these guys understand anything whatsoever...
Goldman Sachs Makes AI Core of Finance Operations
Goldman Sachs is embedding Anthropic’s Claude into accounting and compliance to automate high volume, rules based back office work. After six months of co building, executives were surprised that AI handled complex financial processes, not just coding tasks. The ambition is clear,...
AI, Demographics, Trust Will Redefine Wealth Management by 2035
🇺🇸US #WealthManagement in 2035: Over the next decade, the convergence of #AI, demographic change, and evolving client trust will challenge wealth managers to reinvent how they compete and serve clients. @McKinsey. #WealthTech https://t.co/LYecpUeK0S
Bet Big on Your Six Best Ideas
David Poppe on capital allocation "You will make more money from your six best ideas in life than from everything else you do. When you find that great idea, you want to buy it in size."
More Analysis, Fewer Dashboards: Solve the Real Problem
I've worked as a Sr. Director of BI and Analytics and I had to learn something the hard way. Despite what business stakeholders say, another dashboard is rarely the right answer to their needs. Why? Because what's behind the ask is a misconception...
Unrealized Gains Tax Threatens New Investments Globally
Unrealized gains tax is a mega-drag on new investments. The same reason why the California Asset Seizure Tax by SEIU-UHW is going to destroy startups is happening in the Netherlands. https://t.co/jMgP3ieI2G
Burn Rate Equals Risk; VC Burn Rates at Historic Highs
Burn rate = risk. So of course, this is true. These are the highest burn rates in history of VC. Simple fact. https://t.co/IrsIBd0qDC
Gift High‑basis Assets Now, Transfer Low‑basis at Death
I can think of half a dozen reasons why it is NOT a mistake to gift a house to a child before passing. Why? Because these decisions are fact and portfolio dependent, and always/never advice is rarely reliable when it...
REITs Hit Decade‑Low Valuations: Rare Investor Opportunity
REITs are currently trading at their lowest valuations in decades. The vast majority of investors are not positioned to take advantage of this historic opportunity. 🧵Here's a 'Mini Masterclass' on how to take advantage: