Tencent's Tiny Wildlight Stake Dwarfed by Massive Cash Flow
Tencent's free cash flow last quarter was US$13B, so the amount they invested in Wildlight is (probably) minuscule for them. They and competitor Netease are in plenty of other deals that are not made public, both in the West and Asia and across all platforms and genres.
Rising Capex May Curb Buybacks, Pressure Valuations
With credit spreads low and profit margins seemingly on the rise, valuations seem OK at current levels. These two variables are important drivers for the equity risk premium, which is currently at 4.0% according to my version of the DCF...
Euphoria Unwinds, Quality Assets Outshine Speculation
I have mentioned this chart a few times in the past, but it does really go to show just how extreme things got the last few years. The chart is SPX/(UNRATE^2)*USIRYY*USINTR Unravelling things after extreme euphoria is never an easy process. As things...
Bitcoin May Slip Below 99‑SMMA First Time Since 2023
If #Bitcoin closes this week below the 99smma it would be the first time since 2023. 😱 Will buyers step in or will we finally close below?? https://t.co/1XkBztY0Jt
Japan Deep‑Value Activism: Why Now Is the Time
It was great to join @alxlowen and Dale Gillham of @Wealthwithin in the studio in Melbourne recently to discuss Senjin Capital’s Japan-focused deep value shareholder activist investment strategy for the The ALx Report and Talking Wealth. Dale brings a wealth...
Blue Owl Stops Redemptions, Highlighting Exit Liquidity Risk
BLUE OWL PERMANENTLY HALTS REDEMPTIONS AT PRIVATE CREDIT FUND AIMED AT RETAIL INVESTORS — FT Being long scarcity might lead to illiquidity, but being long illiquidity doesn’t necessarily mean you’re long scarcity You’re long exit liquidity
Blue Owl Stops Retail Fund Redemptions, Opts for Asset Sales
Blue Owl is permanently halting redemptions at its inaugural non traded private credit fund for retail investors as part of a plan to instead sell down assets over time. With @EricGPlatt https://t.co/GmiIAdaLVK
SPAC Activity Slumps: 21 IPOs, Just One Deal
Month-to-date SPAC statistics: IPOs: 21 Definitive agreements: 1 As Jerry Seinfeld said, "That's not gonna be good for anybody."
SVIX Looks Bad on 15‑minute Chart; Do Your Own Analysis
This thing does not look well (SVIX on 15 minutes). Do your own work. https://t.co/81j1h6AyOe
ETF Inflows Double Historic Pace in First Six Weeks
Here's ETF flows for the first six weeks of the year historically. This year is off to the best start almost by double. One reason is growing depth of cash vacuum cleaners. VOO, SPYM hoovering as always but there's already...
Lennar’s 13F Reveals 18.5M Opendoor
A note re: $OPEN and $Lennar --- if you back it out, Lennar held 18.5M shares of Opendoor at end of its Q3. The 13F likely indicates either they had some anti-dilution protections or participated in debt-for-equity swap, and that’s why...
March 2Y Futures Expected Heavy Amid Nasty Roll
Great reminder futures rolls (H25 to M26) are upon us. Bottomline March 2y futs should be heavy. Roll is nasty at -4.5 which should add to the flattening pressure along with front-end auctions next week.
World Order Collapses: Entering Stage 6 of Global Disorder
It’s official: The current world order has broken down. In my parlance, we are in the Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from being in a period in which there are no rules,...
AI Workflow Replaces WhaleWisdom for Fund Portfolio Tracking
With 13Fs for Q4 out, retweeting this AI workflow (which I quite like). I will be building a stack of a couple dozen funds I follow to get a quick look at their portfolios: new additions, size ups/downs and portfolio...
Portfolio Thrives on Chaos, Not Just Individual Edges
One more tweet as I've been procrastinating this am. This short exchange actually captures a lot of how I think about a portfolio when you roll it up to a high level. Trading your little edges but the portfolio wants...
Bitcoin's Low Volatility Signals Impending Major Move
The volatility on #Bitcoin is the lowest it has been since the crash. That means; there's a big move on the horizon. If we dip, I'll be a big buyer, for sure. If we go back upwards, I'll start taking...
NYC Deficit Sparks Mayor's Risky Corporate and Property Tax Plan
New York City faces a fiscal crisis –– a $5.4B budget deficit. Mayor Mamdani’s plan: tax the most profitable corporations or INCREASE PROPERTY TAXES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES. MAMDANI’S PLAN = A PLAN TO KILL NEW YORK’S ECONOMY. https://t.co/HKJXzJh4Cu
TSLA $365 Drop Represents 1‑
Using a 40% vol for TSLA, the stock dropping to $365 by March expiry is about a 1 st dev move. If normal distrubution the fair odds for that are 5-1. The 370-365 ps offers 5.7-1 It's not a rec...
Topicus Mirrors 2015 Constellation Software Valuation
At the current market cap, Topicus is effectively a “2015-vintage” version of Constellation Software $CSU $TOI $TOI.V
Use Return Dispersion to Forecast Rotations and Outperform
Periods of high return dispersion are an opportunity for investors. As return performance gaps widen and valuation spreads develop, the ability to quantify the current rotation regime and anticipate the next one can deliver outperformance relative to...
Mega‑Cap Weakness Could Drag Entire S&P Down
The reason this is important (even though it’s only a few stocks) is that the Mag 7 is so big that if they should fall they could well take the S&P 500 (cap-weighted) index with it. History shows (below) that...
Pentwater Leads Merger Arbitrage with $10.6 B Book
Largest merger arbitrage books (by 13-F*) Pentwater: $10.6 billion HBK: $8.1 billion Millennium: $7.8 billion Balyasny: $5.3 billion Fidelity: $4.4 billion Citadel: $2.9 billion Qube: $2.7 billion AQR: $2.4 billion Glazer: $2.3 billion Magnetar: $2.1 billion h/t Cantor
Cloudflare Beats Revenue Forecast, Stock Soars on Enterprise Momentum
.@Cloudflare crushes analysts’ expectations on revenue and its stock soars in late trading https://t.co/RRvAoDmATi @SiliconANGLE @Mike_Wheatley “If those three metrics are moving together, it often points to enterprise commitment velocity improving…” - @Chirag_Mehta @constellationr
China’s Outward FDI Surpasses Inward, Gap Widens
Since the 2010s and BRI, Chinese FDI has matched or exceeded inward FDI, but now a really big gap is opening up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/DcgBB3hzww
Geopolitical Tension Drives Gold Surge—Position Now
Gold is on the move🔥 As tensions in the Middle East rise and Iran escalates, markets are reacting and gold is back in focus When uncertainty rises, gold shines ✨ Big moves could be ahead. The question is… are you positioned? Trade Gold with...
Gold Rallies 13% as Tech Stocks Stumble
While the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have SUFFERED in 2026, GOLD IS UP over 13%. It's time to turn away from SILLY VALLEY. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/PZTIJFhPOp
Sector Rotation Timing Yields Asset‑rich Returns
The Great Rotation: From Growth to Asset Rich Value My job is timing sector rotation & picking the best stocks long/short within it. That & sizing up macro event risk & market structure support. That's how I could time the...
AI Spending and Consumer Surge Mask Weak Underlying Growth
Recent top and bottom line (as well as profit margins) have been disproportionately impacted by massive AI cap spending and high end consumer spending. The former has a half life to it. The later may not be sustained if home and stock...
Retail Traders Set Record Demand on Citadel Platform
Citadel on flows, via Bbrg: Retail traders spent a record amount snapping up software shares on Citadel Securities’ platform, according to Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at the firm, which began tracking the data in 2017: “Net notional...
Top Invoicing Vendors Capture 55% Market Share
You don't get paid unless you invoice. Accurate, timely invoices. These are the top invoicing vendors used in software companies. Plus, honorable mentions just off the chart. Survey Highlights: - 57 invoicing solutions named - Top 5 solutions own 55%...
Equal‑Weighted S&P Nears Cap‑Weighted Levels Amid Broadening Market
The market has been broadening out nicely as of late, and since the April 2025 Tariff tantrum low, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index has almost caught up to the cap-weighted index (34% vs 38%). It has been good to see....
Demand Surge Compresses Bond Spreads Despite Record Issuance
Record bond issuance. Record trading volumes. Tighter spreads. More supply should widen spreads. Instead buyers are so hungry that more issuance actually improves liquidity and compresses risk premiums. This works until it doesn’t.
Arizona Senate Advances State Crypto Reserve Bill
NOW: 🇺🇸 Arizona’s SB1649, creating a state-run crypto reserve holding XRP, BTC, and more, cleared the Senate Finance Committee and now heads to the Rules Committee https://t.co/KSlJxJiDTM
Our Portfolios Stay Calm as Rivals Tumble
CHART OF THE DAY: Our Portfolios Are Experiencing Lower Volatility While The Competitors Are Crashing https://t.co/8ToxLIPXph via @hedgeye
AI May Reverse Dilution From Slowing Revenue Growth
Your slowing revenue growth has created a stock-based comp (dilution) problem AI is destroying software multiples, but it may also be the only thing that can solve our dilution problem. https://t.co/8EiZueMtNK
CLOs Bet on Yield While AI Threatens Software Holdings
This is the CLO market right now: Sellers: AI will destroy these businesses Buyers: Thanks for the yield Software is the largest sector in CLO portfolios globally. 10-15% concentration. Nearly half mature in the next 3 years. Someone here is wrong.
ZM Poised for Upside with Buyback, Growth, Cheap Valuation
- Anthropic catalyst - Pouring cash into buyback w/ conservative balance sheet - 5% annual gross profit growth since EOY 2022 - stock trading below 17x EV/EBIT per @fiscal_ai Very interesting set-up for $ZM over next couple of years https://t.co/75MsUcEE1b
FinTechs Become Latin America’s SME Financial Operating System
Latin America’s small businesses don’t lack ambition. They lack liquidity. FinTechs are stepping in to close persistent cash flow gaps with smarter underwriting, real-time data and embedded finance solutions. The real opportunity isn’t just lending. It’s becoming the financial operating system for...
Upcoming UST Auctions May Cool Rally, Create Opportunity
Busy UST auction schedule in the next eight days could finally slowdown the rally a bit and offer an opportunity. Brand new 20s ($16B) today, new 30y TIPS tomorrow ($9B), and regular size/schedule 2s, 5s and 7s next week.
Equity Volatility Spike Defies Traditional Buying Signals
Good read on *market stress* from GS: “Our vol stress index closed the week registering 9 out of 10. Historically, readings of >9 have been buying opportunities, but this time ‘feels different’ as the increase in panic has not come with...
Strong Stocks Thrive Only With Strong Market Momentum
Strong stocks are good. Strong stocks + strong sector = better. Strong stocks + strong sector + strong market = ideal. The flip side is a weak market can put pressure on strong stocks, so it's key to pay attention to market (index)...
Shift to Equal‑weight, Financials, and Cyclical Assets
Wow, the goat is also rotating out of Megacap tech, long equal weight performance vs market cap, long financials for deregulation and curve steepening, and long real cyclical assets Feels good man
SKEW Below 140 Signals Institutional Hedge Unwind
SKEW just closed below 140. Falling $SKEW = institutions unwinding tail-risk hedges (OTM puts get cheaper) and/or quietly reducing equity exposure. Past cycles: Sustained declines often marked distribution phases — rallies fade as protection demand evaporates and complacency builds. If it...
Rising Margin Loans Tied to Crypto, Metal, Software Volatility
Elevated Margin Loans … wonder if the crypto volatility and metal volatility and software volatility has something to do with that 🥺
Onshore Secures $31M Series B for AI Tax Automation
Congrats to Onshore on their $31M Series B! Onshore is building an AI-native platform that replaces manual CPA workflows with continuous, automated tax intelligence. Instead of relying on spreadsheets and fragmented documentation, Onshore automates data collection and analysis while keeping expert...
AMC Refires $2.5B to Trim Maturity Wall
AMC moving to clean up its maturity wall. $2.5B package taking out 2027 notes (12.75%) and 2029 TL If it prices well, decently lower interest burden. $AMC
Rent to Your Business Tax-Free—Only With Proper Paperwork
Influencers: “Rent your house to your business and boom — tax-free money.” What they don’t tell you: 📂 Fair market rent. 📝 Real agendas and minutes. 👥 Actual humans in attendance. 💼 A separate legal entity. 📸 Documentation that doesn’t look like it was created during...
AI Firms, Data Centers to Issue $220B Debt, Outpace Banks
AI cos and data centers are expected to issue $220 billion of debt this year, making up 15% of JPM's high-grade bond index (and making them bigger issuers than banks) https://t.co/LPkxfJGhNK
Big Tech Cuts Buybacks, Shifts to AI Spending
‼️The largest US stock buyer since 2009 is STEPPING BACK: Combined buybacks by Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle fell to $12.6 billion in Q4 2025, the lowest in 7 YEARS. This marks the 3rd quarterly decline, a -70% DROP from the...
Chinese State Banks Boost FX Securities by $90B Monthly
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s