Wider Term Premia Needed to Hedge Bond‑equity Shocks
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot wider.
VITL's Low-Return Claim Clashes with $100M Buyback
A slide from the $VITL December 2025 Investor Day, which ranked capital returns as their lowest investment priority; two months later, announced a $100 million repurchase authorization, which would require debt issuance. https://t.co/IAg2QWKbrE
Arab Sovereign Funding Spurs Soft Power Concerns in $110B Deal
Paramount’s $110 Billion Warner Bros. Deal Backed by Arab Sovereign Funds Raises Soft Power Concerns https://t.co/YAzJc52Fgq
Sharp Dollar Rally Threatens Treasury Market Stability
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
S&P Puts PSKY Ratings on CreditWatch, Negative Outlook
Just in: S&P Global Ratings placed all its ratings on global diversified media company PSKY, including the 'BB+' issuer credit rating and our issue-level ratings on its debt, on CreditWatch with negative implications
Learn How Companies Navigate ITFM and FinOps Today
It's not too late. Join us this morning at 11 ET to learn more about how companies are navigating ITFM & FinOPs. Register here: https://t.co/jhHi37D4iJ
SES Faces 2025 EBITDA Shortfall, Growth Slated for 2027
.@SES_Satellites: Rev & EBITDA 2025 shortfall mainly from short-term events, growth to resume in 2027. 2 yrs after filing $472M claim for glitches on 4 mPower sats, only 40% has been paid. Co plans MEO-orbit network serving US & European...
20‑Year Fees Can Erase Most Investment Gains
Most investors know they pay fees. Annual charges. Management costs. Platform fees. Almost nobody knows what those fees actually cost them over 20 years. The number is usually the most shocking thing I show new clients.
Higher Tender Price Rewards Elliott, Not Governance
Toyota Fudosan (6201 JP) “The increase in the tender offer price is something of a win for stewardship as Elliott made a fair bit of money for its clients... But it’s not necessarily a big win for governance.” https://t.co/QEBKuTMAj4
WBD Falls Far Short of FY25 Revenue Targets
FY23 financial projections from the Warner Media / DISCA deal. Fast forward to FY25: WBD generated total revenues of $37.3 billion, with $10.9 billion from DTC, EBITDA of $8.7 billion, and FCF of $3.1 billion. Missed every one of their financial projections...
Blackstone’s Jon Gray Offers SaaS Loans at 98¢
it’s your promotion year at Blackstone and Jon Gray calls and asks if you wanna buy some SaaS loans at 98 cents: https://t.co/7xdf7c8YNt https://t.co/CvnV13BVpL
Wall Street Rebounds as Oil and Gold Retreat
Is the market already done with the US-Iran war? Wall Street erased early losses while gold and crude oil recoiled from panic highs. Now what? #OilPrices #Crude #Iran #IranWar #stockmarkets #Dollar #Macro https://t.co/sUv93zfPtT
Databricks Files Audited GAAPs, Signals IPO Preparation
Databricks today disclosed audited GAAP financials. That's the sort of thing a company does when it's prepping to go public.
Earn Fixed Income on Payroll with Rise
Excited for the @Rise_Pay team and especially excited for their customers. Now if you get payroll paid via Rise, you automatically start earning a fixed income % on that balance, putting your money to work for you better.
Block’s 40% Cuts Dwarfed by Bigger Tech Layoffs
To put Block's 40% layoff in perspective... Here are the largest single layoffs by a public tech company: https://t.co/RIuZwREhhC
Musk's X, XAI to Repay $
*ELON MUSK'S X, XAI PLAN TO PAY BACK $17.5 BILLION OF DEBT Looks like private credit* is good again *actually BSL but the media gets it wrong all the time so who cares
First Round Capital Offers Year-End Funding Options
Chris, saw that First Round Capital is backing startups and helping them grow. Any chance your business could make use of some capital options towards the end of the year?
Mortgage Rates Surge After Iran Strike, Ending Recent Decline
#Mortgage rates jump sharply higher after Iran strikes, reversing last week's decline https://t.co/O08aG0nWf9 @mortgagenewsmnd #realestate #realestateinvesting
Tokenized Gold Offers Safe‑Haven Access During Market Closures
Tokenized gold provided access to a safe-haven asset when traditional exchanges were closed this weekend. My research paper updated today. @DukeFuqua @RA_Insights https://t.co/yA7PGaTTgf
Mercury's Paid Personal Account Signals Fintech’s Subscription Shift
Mercury charges for a bank account while others give it away. Immad Akhund explains why Mercury Personal targets the mass affluent—and what that says about fintech’s next fight. (0:00) Why Charge for a Bank Account Now? (0:23) Akhund: Who’s the “Mass Affluent”? (0:56)...
Berkshire Will Buy Back Shares Below Intrinsic Value
Greg Abel: "Share repurchases are another important capital allocation option. We will buy back Berkshire shares when they trade below our estimate of intrinsic value, conservatively determined, ensuring that repurchases enhance per-share value for continuing owners."
Assess IT Spend ROI Amid AI‑Driven FinOps
Are you getting a return from your IT investments or just burning cash? Tomorrow, I'll be participating in a webinar with @Apptio and SunStream Business Services about the realities of FinOps in a dynamic market. Apptio will share its latest...
Lease Used Equipment to Cut Costs and Risk
"Another great way to do smaller deals and reduce risk is to do leases on used equipment. Just like cars, most of the depreciation on equipment happens in the first few years." –Invest Local (2014) https://t.co/l2EObkfURN https://t.co/X97c95CkJd
Trust Drives Markets: When It Falters, Risk Rises
Trust is emotional. It’s also economic infrastructure. When it weakens, markets reprice risk and retirement plans built on stability require harder tradeoffs. Most people treat trust as sentiment. It isn’t. It determines how money moves. I sat down with George D. Kinder to...
Subq Inventory Expense Shifts Income, Potentially Doubles TAM
Note for $TGTX, this year has $100m in expenses building inventory for Subq - from a theoretical accounting perspective should really be capitalized (and then written-off if failed or amortized in year of sale), but in actuality gets deducted from...
AI‑Driven Investing Demands Conviction, Culture, and Risk Discipline
Investing is entering a new regime defined by AI acceleration, crossover convergence, and a widening gap between insight and execution. A conversation with @GavinSBaker of Atreides Management on rigorous debate, conviction, and how culture & risk management drive performance across...
Oil Shock Threatens Inflation, Yields, Market Deleveraging
Markets are in risk off mode but NOT full panic YET 📉 $SPX $ES $NQ down 🛢️ $CL surging 🥇 $GC up YET 💵 $DXY strong 📈 $VIX rising Ras Tanura attacked. Oil supply at risk. Iran escalating. If oil keeps climbing, inflation comes back fast. If...
High Finance Remains AI‑Proof, Threatened Only by Socialism
You have to understand that the high finance industry is the most AI-proof (minus back office) because the edge has never been about efficiency It’s regulatory arbitrage, liquidity monopolies, and bilateral custodial trusts backed by war Its only real vulnerability is socialism
Dividends Dip, Payouts Surge as KWSP Assets Swell
The 2025 Employees' Provident Fund (KWSP) dividends experienced a slight decline to 6.15% for both conventional and syariah accounts. CEO Ahmad Zulqarnain Onn attributed this reduction to: 1. stagnant growth within the local stock market and the 2. strengthening of the...
Avoid Market Open Trades Without a Clear Plan
Back to Investment Markets in light of Iran-US-Israel War 📈 "If you don't have a clear game plan, you shouldn't be taking any action at the market open... If your game plan is to reduce risk across the board, again open is...
LBO Debt Market Faces $20B Nerve‑Testing Stress Test
The LBO debt market is freaking out. Here comes a $20B test of nerves https://t.co/MiXTnEB2pK
Fraud Scams Evolve Beyond Classic CEO Email
My accounting team is receiving scary good fraud attempts… It is no longer the yahoo email from the CEO saying “Send $10M to this bank asap. We just acquired a company. Many thanks” Stay safe out there
Advisors' Real Value Lies Beyond Trade Timing
Most people think their advisor's job is to make trades. Buy this. Sell that. Rotate sectors. Time entries. That's level one. And it's the least valuable thing a financial consultant can do.
Aussie 10s
Aussie 10s have on average traded 67bps cheap to UST 10s over the past few weeks. Currently trading 4.58 which suggest UST 10s should open around 3.91, 3 bps richer (that's like 6-7 ticks)
Success Hinges on Cash, Growth, and Capital Returns
What do the most successful companies have in common? They all excel in these three critical areas 1️⃣ Strong, predictable cash generation 2️⃣ Attractive growth opportunities 3️⃣ High returns on capital
Free Cash Flow Conversion Reveals True Economic Profit
"Free cash flow conversion separates accounting profits from economic profits." Most profits are fiction. Cash is truth. 💸 Free cash flow conversion separates accounting profits from real economic value — and serious investors know the difference.
Use a 1.5× DSCR to Fund $2‑3M Deals
The one number that unlocks business acquisition finance: DSCR — Debt Service Coverage Ratio Formula: EBITDA ÷ Annual Debt Repayments Lenders want ≥ 1.5x What this means: For every $1 you owe the bank, the business earns $1.50. Find a business with $500K EBITDA? You can service...
Lease Incentives Impact Yield and Refinancing Strategy
Retail landlords: TI vs. Free Rent isn’t just negotiation — it’s balance sheet strategy. TI = upfront capital out. Free rent = delayed income. Both reduce effective yield. But they affect refinancing and liquidity differently. In today’s lending environment, structure matters more than optics. If you’re...
Ginkgo's 2025 Revenue Far Misses $7.6B Promise
Ginkgo reported full year 2025 revenue of $170M at the end of last week. When it went public at a $15B valuation in 2021, they guided to investors that they’d be adding $7.6B in new business PER YEAR in 2025...
Financial Visibility: Why Small SaaS Firms Struggle to Track Revenue
Many small SaaS companies can’t clearly answer: “How much money are we actually making?” In Ep. 234 of The SaaS CFO Podcast, Helen Hastings shares why financial visibility shouldn’t be this hard. Watch 👇 https://t.co/BnQYh8fzzR #SaaS #AI #Quanta https://t.co/ftZ3u32GPX
Unlock Hidden Loan Options Through Business Brokers
“Welcome to my special report on how to borrow from #businessbrokers... By the end of this report, you’ll learn how you can negotiate a loan from a lender that many others have never considered.” –Borrow from Biz Brokers (2017) https://t.co/l2EObkfURN...
Goldman Slide Signals Hidden Atlantic Credit Crisis
Goldman Sachs down 7.5% in a single day. From $985 to $860 in three months. Meanwhile, a UK mortgage lender just collapsed. Private credit contagion is spreading across the Atlantic. This isn’t a correction. It’s a credit event hiding in plain sight.
China's Treasury Sales Hit Lowest Since 2008
⚠️China is indeed DUMPING US Treasuries: China’s holdings of US government bonds dropped -$75.5 BILLION in 2025, to $683.5 billion, the lowest since September 2008, the Financial Crisis. Since the 2013 peak, holdings have fallen -$633.2 BILLION.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
Berkshire's Capital Allocation: Focus, Integrity, and Discipline
Berkshire’s capital allocation principles and strategy: Invest in businesses that we thoroughly understand, with durable advantages and long-term economic prospects; Partner with high integrity leaders who understand their customers and act like owners; Avoid businesses that undermine the fabric of society or...
Iran Conflict Sparks Oil Surge and Market Turbulence
Major News to Track on March 1, 2026: 1. US-Israel Strikes on Iran Escalate, Khamenei Reported Dead 2. Oil Prices Surge Amid Fears of Strait of Hormuz Disruption 3. Global Stock Markets Brace for Volatility Post-Iran Attacks 4. EPF Announces...
Most Independent Docs Prefer S‑Corp, Yet Shouldn’t
The mass majority of physicians who are doing independent work think they should be an S-corp. The mass majority of physicians who are doing independent work should not be S-corps. #TaxTwitter
10‑Year Yield Falls 34bps; Rate Cut Looms?
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
Pick Dipping Stocks With Strength, Institutional Backing, Strong Themes
Stock selection is absolutely critical. 📈 because not every stock that dips is going to recover, and the ones that do recover the fastest and strongest are almost always the names with relative strength, institutional sponsorship, and a strong theme backing...
Product Usage Guides Strategy; NRR Tops SaaS Metrics
What’s your North Star metric? In Ep. 234 of The SaaS CFO Podcast, Helen Hastings shares why product usage drives their strategy — and why NRR is her favorite SaaS metric. Listen 👇 https://t.co/BnQYh8fzzR #SaaS #NRR #Startups https://t.co/nLbvXo2yBs
Private Credit Crash Already Evident in BDC NAV Discounts
Many calling/hoping for a crash in private credit. While loan performance has mostly been ok, secondary prices tell a different story. A crash has already happened in the listed BDC market, with NAV discounts previously only seen during Covid and the GFC,...