NTLA Floods Market with 6M New Shares, Cash‑burn Evident
$NTLA looks like they ran the ATM for nearly 6M new shares since last quarterly earnings? As I expected. Absolute cash furnace. Their runway guidance was always mathematically implausible without raising like this.
Revolut IPO Sparks Unprecedented Fintech VC Liquidity
We are going to see previously unheard of liquidity in fintech VC following the @Revolut IPO. "The firm is targeting a valuation of at least $150 billion through any listing." https://t.co/mos6kPJDYO
US Estate Tax Hits Singapore Residents'
You own $3 million in US stocks. You live in Singapore. You pass away. Two versions of what happens next.
Importers Weigh Discount for Guaranteed Immediate Tariff Refunds
If you are an importer, what % discount would you accept to get paid the full amount on your tariff refunds right now with 100% certainty and you keep the money even if there are no refunds.
Velesto Energy: More Than Just Oil Drilling
Who is Velesto Energy Berhad? 🌊🏗️ If you’ve been following the Malaysian stock market or the O&G sector, you’ve definitely seen this name. But do they just "dig for oil"? Here’s the breakdown of this local giant. 🧵👇
Flydubai Posts $531m Profit, Hits Record Passengers
flydubai posts US$531m profit after tax for FY2025, reinforcing the momentum behind its expanding network strategy. The Dubai-based carrier reported US$591m pre-tax profit on revenues of US$3.7b, up 6% year-on-year. A record 15.7 million passengers flew with the airline, with Business...
Record Dividend Amid Profit Dip Raises Order Book Questions
Velesto Energy just reported a profit dip for FY25, yet they are paying out the highest dividend in the company's history. Is the RM1.3 billion order book enough to offset lower rig utilization and declining charter rates? Here is the breakdown of...
More Funds ≠ True Diversification; Look Deeper
Most people think diversification means owning lots of different funds. A client came to me with 17 funds across 4 fund houses. "My advisor said this was maximum diversification." When I showed him what he actually owned underneath, something broke.
Activist Pressure, Not Weak Yen, Drives Real Improvements
Seems to me that the biggest improvements have been in firms: - Shamed into increasing their P/B to 1.0x - Targeted by shareholder activists like Oasis - Already had the right mindset, eg Hitachi / Itochu - Illusory improvement from the weak yen https://t.co/KxTgEB3c9O https://t.co/DoX7UvP2gs
Anthropic Launches Claude Cowork for Banking with Data Plugins
Anthropic is taking its magic tricks to financial services.... Claude Cowork for banking. - Plugins tailored for investment banking, private equity, equity research, and wealth management. - Integrations with financial data providers like FactSet, MSCI, S&P Global, and LSEG. https://t.co/pRISD6broy
Massive Buybacks Signal Shrinking‑to‑Grow Strategy
You know who has a buyback of more than 25% of their equity market cap? A company that is shrinking to "grow". Like $EK back in the day. Return of capital style buyback $CRM
Big‑Cap S&P Leaders 50% More Volatile Than Index
The top 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are 50% more volatile than the S&P 500 itself right now. Important for risk... but more important for alpha right now. https://t.co/yqBR2QU8nK
CFO Guide: Guardrails for Secondary Tender Offers
How much money is too much money for employees to take out in a secondary? What are the appropriate guard rails to run a tender offer as a CFO? And is the rise of SPVs helping or hurting the reputation...
Domo's 0.8x ARR Price Masks Zero Growth, Broken Economics
Domo trades at 0.8x ARR and just announced they are formally looking to sell. While they have a "cheap" multiple, revenue growth is 0% and they are barely FCF breakeven. I.e. the unit economics are broken. But might make sense to the...
Python Reduces Portfolio Optimization to Four Lines
Stop trading with Excel. Start trading with Python. Portfolio optimization is literally 4 lines of Python code:
Mortgage Demand Hits 10‑month Low, Biggest Homebuyer Strike
Mortgage demand to buy houses just plummeted to its lowest level in 10 months. The MBA mortgage purchase index is now at 150. 57% crash from pandemic peak. 40% drop from 2018-2019 levels. It's the biggest homebuyer strike ever. https://t.co/FVB0HYY4bc
Raise Prices Now: Stop Giving Customers a Hidden Tax
Are you paying a 50% tax you didn't vote for? You're just gifting it to your customers instead of the government. Here's how: Say you're a store doing $3M at 10% margins makes $300K in profit. You finally raise prices 15%, something that's LONG...
From Sole Female Math Major to $10T Leader
She started as the only female math major in her class. Now she runs a $5T global platform at JPMorgan. Next stop: $10T AUM.
VAT Threshold Unchanged Since 2009 Hurts Small Businesses
The last time they increased the compulsory VAT registration was circa 2009. Fun Fact: R1 million Rand in 2009 ( the last time they adjusted VAT registration ) is roughly equivalent to R2.2-R2.3 million. Inflation adjusted it’s now about the...
USDJPY‑Yield Spread Correlation Rebounds to Strong Positive
The rolling 40-day (2 month) correlation between $USDJPY and the US-Japan 2-year yield spread has rebound to a stronger positive (+0.6) after 10 months of inversion. Will it just start syncing up or will this gap in carry standing close?...
Netherlands' 36% Tax on Unrealized Gains Shocks Investors
The 36% tax on unrealized gains in the Netherlands. It's beyond insane. I've asked @arnowellens his take on this and he fully explained what this means for any investor.
Fintechs Buzz: Pay
This week in (publicly-listed) fintechs: @PayPal gets takeover interest from @Stripe @RobinhoodApp launches private markets @Remitly beats expectations @Klarna delivers better GMV but margins fall https://t.co/bEeEnaTZ3V
Nelson Peltz Flags WEN Undervaluation, Potential Buyout
$WEN targeted by LT shareholder & former Chairman Nelson Peltz (13D filed). - Says shares are undervalued and strategic options incl. a buyout may be explored. - He looked at a deal in 2022 but walked. - Stock at ~8x...
BofA Records Highest Euro Allocation, Cuts US Exposure
Bank of America show the biggest positive allocation to #euro assets on record in an impressive global rebalancing. A net 22% say they hold a lower-than-benchmark allocation to US, from just 6% at end of 2025. The backlash appears to...
Nearly 1,000 Russell 200
991 of the Russell 2000s companies have reported an aggregate y/y EPS acceleration of +24%
Key Market Moves to Watch on Feb 25, 2026
Major news to track on February 25, 2026: • US State of the Union: Trade Impact • Petros vs Petronas: Court Decision • Public Bank: FY2025 Results • Telekom Malaysia: Earnings Briefing • Inta Bina: Forecast Revision • Teamstar: ACE Market Debut Details here 🧵👇🏼
Advisors Hold 0.008% Bitcoin; 5% Target Could Spark Massive Inflows
Very interesting slide from @River: U.S. investment advisors have ~0.008% in Bitcoin on average. Some of the biggest names in finance suggest Bitcoin allocations of up to ~5%. Investment advisors are underallocated to Bitcoin. If advisors move even modestly toward those ranges, the...
Yuan Deposits Rise, Household Growth Slows, Non‑bank Surge Persists
Yicai: "Chinese yuan deposits saw strong year-on-year growth in January, but the pattern of slower household deposit growth alongside faster non-bank deposit growth persisted. Industry insiders said this does not mean that money is leaving the banking system, nor does...
Liquidity, Not Earnings, Halts Market Rally
What happened to the stock market? The market rally has come to a HALT. Earnings and innovation are not the problem, liquidity is.
One Planning Session Prevents Post‑Death Financial Chaos
I've been a financial consultant to millionaires in Singapore and across Southeast Asia for nearly a decade. Here's what I've learned: the most painful financial conversations happen after someone passes away. The ones that could have been prevented by a single...
Paramount Waives MAE Clause, Adds Cash for Lender Solvency
Paramount is waiving Material Adverse Effect clause for cable network biz. In other words, any declines before close won't effect deal price. Also Paramount agrees to put in more $$ to satisfy lenders if necessary to support the solvency certificate....
Capex Share Rises, Yet Dividends Remain Intact
Companies are spending more of their revenues on capex, and so far, this hasn’t come at the expense of either dividends or buybacks. At the bottom in 2022, companies were spending 5.4% of their revenues on capex, and that has...
Eli Lilly's 2025 Irish Tax Bill Doubles U.S.
Whoah Nellie. Looks like Ireland's list of its top 3 corporate tax papers will need to be updated for 2025 ... Eli Lilly reported paying $6.6b to Ireland in 2025 (2x its US federal income tax payments) https://t.co/MEw7WMzPft
Earnings Beats Keep 40‑Month Bull Market Alive
The earnings picture has continuedto provide support for this now 40-month old bull market. With Q4 earnings season soon wrapping up (with 425 companies having reported), 75% have beaten estimates by an average of 773 bps. The dollar estimate has...
TEM Q4 Beats Revenue, Diagnostics Surge 122% YoY
TEM Q4 2025: • Revenue $367M vs Est. $363M • EPS ($0.04) vs Est. ($0.05) • Diagnostics Revenue: $267M (+122% YoY) FY26 Guidance • Revenue $1.59B vs Est. $1.58B
WBD Board Says Para Offer May Prompt Superior Bid
Para offer —> $31/shr with $0.25 ticking fee…. WBD board says “Could Reasonably Be Expected to Lead to a “Company Superior Proposal””
Axon Beats Q4 Forecast, Projects 27‑30% FY26 Growth
$AXON Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.15 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.55 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.60; revenues rose 38.5% year/year to $796.72 mln vs the $755.56 mln FactSet Consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY26, sees FY26...
AI Disruption Could Trigger $420 Bn Credit Default Wave
UBS’s Matt Mish lays out a scenario for credit involving “rapid, aggressive AI disruption.” US high yield, leveraged loan & private credit default rates could rise to 3–6%, 8–10%, & 14–15%, respectively: Mish. “Defaults could approach ~$420bn, w/losses of roughly...
New Prediction Markets Launch: Crypto, Sports, Politics, Weather
📦 Delivery confirmed A fresh batch of prediction markets just arrived ✅ Crypto dailies ✅ Crypto hourlies ✅ 5+ Oscars markets ✅ 50+ basketball events ✅ Fed rate decisions ✅ CPI reports ✅ State of the Union markets ✅ Presidential event markets ✅ Weather markets https://t.co/7iTwFuKihm
Private Credit Boom Delays Maturity Wall, Now Cracks Appear
What my post from December 2023 overlooked was the massive expansion in private credit. Private credit stepped in aggressively to fill financing gaps, refinance maturities, and provide bridge capital, delaying the "wall of maturities" many buyers were eager to capitalize on. Now...
Boards Demand Business Impact Over Technical Threat Metrics
📈 The Board is over "Red, Yellow, Green" charts. They want financial risk quantification. Moving from technical metrics to business risk is the #1 theme for CIOs at RSA this year. Stop reporting on "threats" and start reporting on "impact."...
Instant Cash Insight: One Dashboard Beats Spreadsheet Chaos
"How's cash looking?" If that question makes you nervous, you need this dashboard. Every finance leader gets asked this. Most scramble for the answer. Let me show you what I mean. Four KPIs at the top. Revenue, COGS, Opex, Ending Cash. Each one...
2‑Year Auctions Shine During Nasty Treasury Roll Week
2y auctions during roll week are usually more interesting esp when TU (ZT) roll is this nasty
Investing Strategies Aligned with the Big Cycle
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call...
Build a Mini Hedge Fund Using Python Algorithms
How to create your own "mini" hedge fund with algorithmic trading and Python A thread 🧵
EF Calls for Deeper, Purpose‑Driven Innovation in DeFi
Defi is a central part of the value that Ethereum provides. Financial empowerment is a central part of what it means to have agency and freedom in our current world. Finance is far from the only thing that Ethereum is...
Tariffs Spike Costs, Crashing DTC ROAS
Your ad account looks fine: - ROAS is holding - CPMs are manageable - Conversions are flowing But your spreadsheet is screaming. As of February 2026, the average US tariff rate sits at 17% on all imports. For DTC brands...
Boomers Command 45% Spending, 74% Wealth—Shaping Markets
Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: https://t.co/tnQSK0khDB https://t.co/7BBPkFGnml
Federal Deficit Swells to Historic 8% of GDP
US Federal Budget Deficit as a % of GDP... 1950s: -0.4% 1960s: -0.7% 1970s: -1.9% 1980s: -3.8% 1990s: -2.1% 2000s: -2.3% 2010s: -4.8% 2020s: -8.3% https://t.co/W7GwqCkcBx
Cannabis Refinancings Signal Imminent Rescheduling and Rally
The largest multi state cannabis companies have announced meaningful refinancings (with relatively good terms - interest rates and maturities) over the last two weeks - presaging, in our view, a much anticipated and favorable rescheduling decision by the Administration. The "refinancing...