Junk Credit Spreads Widening, Still Early In Trend
Junk credit spreads are certainly widening, but if this is going to become a meaningful move, we are not even out of the first inning. https://t.co/KwASCn8uAh
US Policy Follows Bonds, Not Oil, Amid QE
U.S. policy is governed by the bond markets, not oil prices. We will be doing QE and pumping asset prices like crazy in order to crash land the Treasury markets after this mess. cc: @LynAldenContact @lukegromen are over the target.
Navigating Credit Stress: Dislocations, Liquidity, and Private Risk
Credit markets are shaped by dislocations, liquidity, and risk. Kieran Goodwin of Saba Capital speaks to three decades in credit, risks in private credit, and positioning for stress. https://t.co/oiutNgtCW9 With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Managing Risk While Riding Market Trends, Jeff Weiss Explains
"I could take a cut, but not an amputation" - LMAO we've got legend Jeff Weiss today LIVE on The Morning Show @StockMktTV talking about Managing Risk and how to do it while following trends https://t.co/WYoTXFtpUW https://t.co/tZIDgdDpq7
Buy a $2M Business With Zero Down by Understanding Sellers
Nobody teaches you this in school: You can buy a $2M business with $0 down if you understand how sellers think.
Insiders Acquire Firm at 18% Premium in Privatization
Privatization with a wide ~18% spread. Insiders with majority control are buying out the company’s operations at a price slightly above its cash value. https://t.co/Pesdx9I3wK
T‑Strive Digital Credit ETF Filing Announced by Tuttle & Strive
New filing for T-Strive Digital Credit ETF which will hold the preferred securities of DATs. T-Strive is new issuer too, joint production by Tuttle and Strive. https://t.co/xxbAAOmVEH
Reverse Thinking Reveals Hidden Risks in FICO
"The mental habit of thinking backwards forces objectivity." – Charlie Munger. Many investors look at $FICO and see a perfect toll-bridge. But to truly understand it, you have to try to disprove the thesis. That's what I did. I just published Part...
Credit Kids Pivot to Massive Cleanup Trade
Great read from @ameliajpollard and @EricGPlatt Opportunistic credit, distress, special sits and that flavor all sat at the credit kids table after direct lending took off in the mid 2010s Zirp era. Now, they see a massive trade to clean...
CFOs Must Plan Their Exit Before M&A Closes
Congrats, a sale is imminent. While it ain't real until the check clears, as Mozart used to say, let's talk about what happens to you personally when the deal goes through. In 8 out of 10 acquisitions, the CFO gets...
War Turns Bonds Into Biggest Losers, 14% Loss
From Waterloo to the Iran conflict, the pattern hasn't changed. When governments go to war, bondholders pay. New research from Northwestern, Stanford, Columbia and UT Austin: 300 years of data, 14% average real losses in the first four years of war....
Market Prices Known Risks, Misses Hidden Threats
Widely discussed risks are often priced in. The real threats tend to be overlooked. #RiskManagement #MarketInsight https://t.co/PWgmCJwWDp
FORA's Stellar Year Suggests Bid Should Rise
$FORA just recorded outstanding end-of-year results. Revenue in Q4 was up 37% YoY. Full-year revenue grew 50%, with EBITDA increasing 70%. Management is clearly lowballing, and the bid should be increased. Discussions with the special committee are still ongoing.
Government Funds Reject Sunway Bid, Deal Unlikely
EPF’s abstention was a signal. Formal rejection is a verdict. The investment committee has turned down Sunway’s RM3.15 offer. Says the offer does not reflect IJM’s intrinsic value. EPF holding 20.52%, PNB at 13.3% already rejecting, together with other government-linked funds owning...
SPSY Shows Improved Fundamentals, Potentially Undervalued
#SPSY interesting Update. Cash up, debt down. Seems to have more customers which is good. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 4.4 RISING to 8.9 and fwd Divvy 7% rising to 7.1%. It could be cheap. I don't hold.
Nidec Faces Governance Shock, Lawsuit and Moody's Downgrade
Nidec governance shock: shareholder demands suit; accounting probe + Moody’s downgrade cut credit & earnings visibility. Risk: litigation, restatements. Trade: Cut Nidec exposure pending report. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
DEBS Beats Guidance, Raises FY27 Outlook Amid Cost Cuts
#DEBS "comfortably ahead of previous guidance". FY27 guidance raised. Final quarter saw "material improvements in the Group's GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) trend". Ahead of plan on turnaround actions. Costs being reduced in many areas and Cash flow improved.
FINRA’s “Burdensome” 2.5TB Data Tamed by AWS
@FINRA 's MMAT recent BK response/filling (March 27th) states an estimated 2.5 terabyte of trading data for #MMAT / #MMTLP. They called this BURDENSOME. At first glance perhaps this may look like a big, scary dataset... But lets take a closer...
Private Revenue Disclosures Signal Scale, Not Boast
I rarely get into twitter (X) debates. As a founder I have always wondered how so many outsiders have opinions about a business. With the @emergentlabs revenue rate debate - here are a few points to consider 1. A private...
Most Misuse This Tax Strategy's Hidden Power
Too many people misunderstand and misuse this tax strategy when it’s way more powerful than you think 💪🏽
Private-Credit Funds Mask Software Risk with IT Services Label
Private-credit fund managers are playing down exposure to software One of a Blackstone fund’s biggest bets, over $1 billion of loans to Inovalon, was categorized as “IT Services,” not included in software exposure Inovalon calls itself: “a software company that empowers...
Inflation Swap Forward Gauge Peaks, Now Weakening on Downside Risks
Think of the 1-year forward 1-year inflation swap as a market gauge for the current inflation vs growth battle. At the start of the war, the forward measure surged higher along with the current 1-year swap as inflation concerns dominated, but...
Liability Maneuvers Cut Bankruptcy Recoveries Nearly in Half
Sobering new read: Liability management maneuvers (LME) often fail to protect L-T value. Per @FitchRatings firms that undertook LMEs btw 2016 & H1 2025 before filing bankruptcy experienced recoveries for first-lien debt of ~39% vs recoveries of ~68% for firms w/o...
Insurers and Reinsurers Over‑leveraged, Not Subprime‑style
Insurers and reinsurers are 30x+ leveraged. If your conclusion is "leverage is nothing like with subprime" then you are missing the point. Completely.
OpenClaw’s Context Overhead Dwarfs Basic Accounting Tools
Dave from accounting doesn't compare to OpenClaw... Turns out context is expensive. 😭 Here's some things to consider running OpenClaw 👇 https://t.co/KENR64ykSa
Private Credit Cracks Deepen as Major Lenders Cut Losses
BlackRock slashed two private credit loans from par value to zero in months. Ares is limiting withdrawals, and Blue Owl has halted them. The cracks in private credit are spreading. IS PRIVATE CREDIT MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN? https://t.co/FBZ2JFNGtC
S&P 500 Forward P/E Drops 16% as Earnings Rise
Stock valuations are compressing sharply even as earnings estimates keep rising. The S&P 500 forward P/E has fallen 16% while the index itself is down just 8.7%. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/QZg0BjpnPg
Liquidity and Solvency Ratios: Core Valuation Metrics
"Liquidity and solvency ratios are valuation inputs, not accounting trivia." Liquidity and solvency ratios aren’t just numbers, they show the real health of a company.
Strong SaaS Growth Offsets Multiple Contraction
While SaaS multiples have contracted meaningfully, 20-30% revenue CAGR since 2021 means that revenue has increased 150-250%, counteracting much of the multiple contraction from an LTV perspective (assuming no dividend recaps). Growth solves a lot of problems over time.
Beyond Heatmaps: Quantify Cyber Risk Financially
Heatmaps aren’t enough anymore for cyber risk. Leaders want to understand financial impact, not just red, yellow, green. https://buff.ly/zGxWwLP
AI-Native Startups Give Founders Majority, Grant Larger Equity
Old model: Give 20% to VCs at Series A, spread a 10-20% option pool across 30+ heads - each person gets 0.25-1.5%. AI-native model: Skip the round entirely. Founders hold majority. If you need more folks, vest them at 3-5%+ each. Smaller...
10‑Year Treasury Yield Signals Oil’s Impending Downturn
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
Rising 5% Breakeven Inflation Threatens S&P Valuations
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
Rising Redemptions Highlight Risks and Opportunities in Private Credit
OUT NOW - @LeylaKuni on the turn in private credit: - redemptions from semi-liquid vehicles are rising - Business Development cos (BDCs) - where she is seeing greatest risks & opportunities Apple https://t.co/Bo97jddHak Spotify https://t.co/LktgvzsRaN https://t.co/BISkrZhVO0
Use AI for Drafts, but Own the Final Output
There’s a question I’ve been mulling for a while now, and I think it’s time to write it down: when is it okay to use generative AI in a given business context, and when does it cross a line? I’ll...
Compliance as Code: GENIUS Act Redefines Financial Infrastructure
🔺 Is the "old era" of compliance finally dead? 🪦 In this episode of Fintech Conversations & Insights, Beth Haddock (Stablecoin Standard) explains why the GENIUS Act is forcing a total rethink of financial infrastructure. We dive into: ❌ Why "Honeypot" data collection...
Private Credit Risks Don't Mirror Subprime Crisis, Study Shows
As private credit's troubles mount, it's natural to wonder if it could lead to another financial crisis, as with subprime. I spent some time studying the parallels. Here's my answer. https://t.co/bmRhA0D1v4 https://t.co/u5Kj2GHdDc
SaaS Multiples Dip as Growth Steadies at 14%
SaaS valuations just hit multi-year lows — while growth is stabilizing. Over the past 12 months, the setup has quietly flipped 👇 • Median EV/Sales fell to 3.44x (at ATL) • NTM revenue growth rebounded to +14% YoY Valuations compressed. Growth held. Growth expectations stopped...
Decade of Gains: Taxpayer-Funded Buybacks Enrich 1%
With the Mag 7 rolling over, is there a good case to be make that the last 10 years of outperformance was just a giant Debt-for-Equity swap from taxpayers (more tax dollars allocated to unfunded pensions) to the top 1%...
JBS Beef Division Loses $617M, Up From $37M
GREEDFLATION? "JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, reported a $617 million adjusted operating loss for its beef business over the past year. A year earlier, the loss was $37 million." https://t.co/0kC8Fa6JhE https://t.co/yOxDcuW5oa
Stay Disciplined: Deploy Capital, Not Panic, Amid Volatility
I get it - volatility makes people nervous. But my job isn’t to panic. My job is to deploy capital. Whether the market is up 700 points or down 700 points, I ask one question: What has actually changed? Most people react emotionally....
Winning All the Time Creates Weak Acquirers
While boarding my flight to New York City for a Serial Acquirers conference, I got a call from my non-entrepreneurial friend, who asked how on earth I was willing to travel all the way from Europe just to stay a...
AI Raises Stakes, Making Traditional PE Valuations Unsustainable
AI is making the penalty for being mediocre massive. And that is why the profit-focused path (and PE’s traditional playbook) is broken. These company valuations will be crushed over time. Maybe <1.5x ARR…Fine if you are bootstrapped, but completely broken for any...
Bond Market Squeezes Yield Expectations, Proves Wrong
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
Accelerate or Die: Only One Viable Path
The illusion of two viable paths will destroy lots of valuations. There is only one path…accelerate or die. The profitability path will seem like a good alternative, but here is what will happen New post 👇 https://t.co/cg40nUY4gq
Yield Spread Peaks, Prompting Duration Risk Exit
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Redemption Caps
Ares capped redemptions at 5% after requests hit 11.6%. Apollo also restricted. Private credit default rate: 5.8% (Fitch). Morgan Stanley warns 8%. The next subprime is always the one nobody's watching. $HYG $BXSL https://t.co/B1Kim7zMg9
My Take on Private Credit and Blue
Every time I am asked how concerned I am about private credit, blue owl and so forth: https://t.co/CpLdqG23BS
Diversification Illusion: Hidden Concentration Threatens Portfolio Resilience
Most portfolios look diversified. Very few actually are. High-net-worth balance sheets often carry hidden concentration risk—especially in real estate, private business interests, and illiquid positions. On paper, it looks like strength. In reality, it can create fragility. A fiduciary approach doesn’t just ask...
ROIC Sources Dictate: Differentiate or Lead Costs
Michael Mauboussin on ROIC and Competitive Advantage If a business has a high ROIC from a high NOPAT margin, focus on differentiation If a business has a high ROIC from a high invested capital turnover, focus on cost leadership Very few businesses...