Buffett’s OXY Deal Delivers Dual‑Benefit Returns
Buffett’s Occidental ($OXY) deal is one of the cleanest examples of “have your cake and eat it too” investing. Let’s break down the real return Berkshire is getting 👇
Tech Valuations Lag Growth, Set to Outperform Soon
The $NDX forward PE ratio has dropped to 21.09. In September 2022 it was at 18.96. The $SPX forward PE is at 20.53. We're approaching the point where tech will start outperforming again. It doesn't make sense for tech to...
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Short‑term Yields Drop, Long‑term Rise; Gold Steadies
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
AI Automation Risks: IP, Taxes, and Market Uncertainty
I can’t wait to read the Risks section of your IPO Prospectus and future SEC filings Risks: within the next 4 years we expect to completely recreate all processes and procedures in each organization to optimize the replacement of humans with...
Deal's Allure Fades when You Crunch the Numbers
Why some business deals look amazing—until you do the math properly. https://t.co/1vSKngieRj #SmallBusiness & Deal Making #SMB https://t.co/wb8AmKBfnA
Asset Supply Surges, Credit Stagnates Amid Wage Stagnation
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
US Financial Markets Expose Vulnerability in Global Conflicts
The US' Achilles heel in this conflict - much as in the tariff confrontation with China a year ago - is financial markets. Those are flashing red as uncertainty mounts. We have lots of skeletons in the closet in private...
AI‑driven SaaS Valuations: NET Overpriced, ZETA Underval
SaaS valuations based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth. • $NET sits far above the curve — 29% growth but trading at 26x Forward EV/Sales. Market pricing in AI + platform dominance. • $APP combines high...
LVMH Balances Cycles by Pairing Stable Spirits with Fashion
$LVMH laid out the strategy driving their acquisitions in 2002 Holding so many different luxury goods businesses would help to balance the cyclicality of each category. “Wines and spirits are stable businesses with long cycles” versus luxury fashion and ready-to-wear...
Use Sinking Funds in High‑Yield Accounts for Big Expenses
People always ask me how I plan for big expenses without blowing my budget. And my mentor taught me about sinking funds. Here’s how they work and why I keep mine in a high-yield savings account. 🧵
Margin Compression Can Signal Strategic Franchise Investment
Not all margin compression is bad news. Sometimes a company is spending to build something that doesn't show up in this quarter's numbers. They could have cut spending and reported prettier margins. But they chose the franchise over the optics.
Lido Committee Plans Conditional 10k stETH Purchase of LDO
The Lido Development Committee proposes using up to 10,000 stETH from the Lido DAO treasury to purchase LDO, with the condition that the LDO will be returned to the treasury if market conditions remain favorable. https://t.co/JDd9hb09HI
Analysts Value Netflix so Highly It’d Trade at 14x P/E
Love the anecdote about Nygren’s analyst pitching Netflix: - Anecdotal survey showed his colleagues valued Netflix higher than any other subscription - If Netflix raised its price to their level, it would have traded at 14x P/E https://t.co/SlDjNAkwbF https://t.co/cVAQ97b2Pr
Morgan Stanley's Low‑Fee Spot Bitcoin ETF Beats Gold
Morgan Stanley, one of world’s largest & most prominent financial firms, is set to launch spot bitcoin ETF… Fee on that ETF will be lowest in category. And meaningfully lower than world’s largest physical gold ETF. Not sure people fully appreciate how far...
EPF Abstains, Handing RM11b Deal to Minority Shareholders
The single largest shareholder in IJM just refused to vote on a RM3.15 per share takeover bid worth RM11b in total. That silence is not neutral — it is doing something specific. (Abstentions in public M&A rarely mean “no opinion.”) EPF, IJM’s...
Earnings Drive AI Stock Gains, but Accounting Tricks Matter
Earnings growth supports stock price growth in the AI era. But do factors like extending the useful lives of tangible assets, aggressively capitalising costs rather than expensing them, and share buybacks also play a role?
Rising Inflation Threatens Balanced Portfolios Like 2022
Fears of re-accelerating inflation obliterating balanced portfolios, just like they did in 2022. https://t.co/S7laKGwQLC https://t.co/oLsV6wsuXf
SBA Launches Huge Financing for Specialized Truckers
Reefer, hazmat, and flatbed truckers and logistics service providers were just given a massive financing vehicle by the SBA.
Marked‑to‑
FWIW - This column I wrote for @FT back in 2022 on the consequences of a marked-to-market economy seems even more relevant today given how top-heavy it has become. https://t.co/5a53albeSu
Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF Undercuts Competition with 0.14% Fee
Looks like forthcoming Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF is undercutting competition on fees... Will only charge 0.14%. Current lowest cost spot btc ETF is Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF at 0.15%. Game on. https://t.co/zJVK5k51ZD
Asset Managers Must Anticipate Major Future Expenses
As an asset manager, your job is to think ahead about the big expenses before they happen.
From Family Office Advisor to Founder: Raising $25M
An important reminder if you work for a family office or just a HNWI and you've done a wonderful job allocating their capital across various asset classes: fixed income, real estate, public equities, PE, venture capital, private credit, commodities, and traditional...
Today's Top 10 SaaS Cloud Multiples Revealed
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close https://t.co/bnxxG3uisU
Financial Planning Software Moat Is Thin, Easily Replaced
what's the moat for financial planning software? one of my portfolio companies ripped it out and built their own...it was not hard.
Accountability Crucial After DeFi Hacks, Risk Understanding Lacking
What is the role of accountability in the aftermath of DeFi exploits? And do DeFi people not know how to reason about risk? @kaiynne, @LucaNetz, @tayvano_ & @omeragoldberg try to answer these in this week's Uneasy Money stream. https://t.co/s7LFvZz7hf
Synergy Turns 4x Acquisitions Into 10x Value
the roll-up math: buy 8 businesses at 4x combined EBITDA: $4M Synergised platform value at 10x: $40M same earnings the multiple did all the work
Markets Misjudge Risks: War Threats Underestimated, Private Credit Overrated
In my view, markets are underestimating systemic risks of Middle East War and overestimating systemics risks of private credit
Quality‑of‑Earnings Review Triggers Price Cuts and Walk‑aways
the quality of earnings review finds every time: – inflated owner salary – personal expenses in business – one-off revenue not repeating – related party transactions every finding: – a price reduction – a structure adjustment – a walk away signal never skip it
Iran War Sparks Global Stagflation, EM Rate Hike Pressure
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
Valuations Drop 12% Even as EPS Expectations Rise
📊 Valuations are down 12% while EPS expectations are up @DanGreenhaus breaks down the market math nobody is talking about 🎙️ https://t.co/T03CfonYMo
U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Nears 4.5% Threshold
The other chart we all gotta check daily. 👉 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 💥Almost hit 4.5% today😦 https://t.co/DVVhNkPrqm
Working Capital Determines Survival, Not Growth
Working capital is either funding your growth… or silently killing your business. Most entrepreneurs don’t even realize which side they’re on. Let’s break it down. Working capital = Current Assets – Current Liabilities Simple math. But it tells a powerful story. It answers one question: Can your business survive...
Bitcoin ETFs Recover $3B, Near Year‑End Flat
Bitcoin ETFs have reversed almost ~$3 billion of the massive ~$9 Billion in outflows from 10/10 through the end of Feb. While they still have net outflows of over ~$6 billion since 10/10 -- we're almost flat on the year...
Upcoming Bear Market Looms After CapEx and ROI Struggles
"If something goes wrong on the CapEx front, on the investment front, on the ROI front, you pick it. The entire market, bonds, credits, structured products, etc... I don't want to say we're in for a world of hurt, but there...
Invisible AI: Finance Benefits Without Seeing the Model
The best AI harness for finance will be invisible You won't see the model You'll see the outcome Faster settlements Better risk management Smarter capital allocation The tool disappears when it actually works
Friday Portfolio Shifts Target Life Alert Market
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: March 27, 2026 - The Life Alert Market" Friday portfolio adjustments... via The Lyons Share https://t.co/7xhU1hRpGV https://t.co/LC5NkFzCHY
Eliminate Month‑end Chaos with Real‑time SAP Business One
End manual month-end hell. Get real-time data with SAP Business One. Interested? Let's chat. Connect and let's talk how I can help you solve your problems. Schedule a meeting with me: https://t.co/ZsEwnG4p2n #SAPBusinessOne #ERP $SAP https://t.co/qoPJk5kyvw
5‑Year SOFR Swap Spreads Dip Below
5y SOFR swap spreads have been heavy lately and just narrowed below -35 bps. Tactically good level IMO esp with the possibility of reg relief soon https://t.co/fjvHI7HVCz
Profit From the EBITDA Multiple Spread in M&A
M&A basics nobody teaches you: – buy at 3–5x EBITDA – combine into platform – sell at 10–12x – personal capital: $0 the spread between those two multiples is the entire game
Sunway's 387% Surge Beats IJM's 9% Loss
Sunway is showing IJM how to actually make money. A 387% return vs a 9% loss? This isn't just a merger; it's a rescue mission for your portfolio. Let’s break this down: 1. Sunway's 387% dominance. 2. IJM's wealth destruction. 3. The national champion play. 🧵👇🏼
Misanalysis Is Investing’s Biggest Risk, Mitigated by Rigorous Research
Nick Sleep on the biggest risk in investing "In our opinion, the biggest risk in investing is the risk of misanalysis. We seek to control this risk through the quality of our research, especially through applying what we have learnt."
Mears Boosts Dividend, Signals Strong Cash Flow
Mears proposes 9% FY25 dividend increase to 17.5p — shows free-cashflow strength from govt contracts. Risk: contract renewals & cost inflation. Trade insight: buy on modest pullbacks. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Global Risk Concentrates in Few Nations, Demands Selective Exposure
Global risk isn’t evenly distributed. In 2026, a small group of countries - including Belarus, Lebanon, Sudan, and Venezuela - sit at the top of the global risk ranking, with premiums around 30.9%. At the other end, only 19 countries globally have risk levels below...
Polanski Weighs Energy, Defence and UK Bond Outlook
Zack Polanski discusses energy, defence and whether he can keep on the right side of the UK bond market https://t.co/nFERJXGjtG
Middle East Turmoil Strains $30tn US Treasury Market
Supply Chain risk is financial risk. “The $30tn US Treasury market is showing growing signs of strain, as turmoil in the Middle East drives swings in bonds that underpin the financial system. The ease of trading in the world’s biggest...
UNH Split Into 2,700 Firms: Potential Value Boost?
Michael Ha , if UNH broke themselves up into literally 2700 companies , the biggest 10 going public as standalone, how much more shareholder value would they create ?
MARA’s BTC Sale Costs $148M Despite Bond Discount
$MARA sold 15,133 BTC to retire $1B in convertible debt. Average sale price: $65,300 Blended cost basis: $80,900 Loss per coin: ~$15,600 15,133 × $15,600 = $236M realized loss They saved $88M buying the bonds back at a 9% discount. Net damage: still roughly $148...
BDC Discounts Suggest Default Rates 5‑10× GFC Levels
Historical recovery rates for middle market direct lending is 65% to 85%. Currently, if one assumes this recovery rate holds, listed BDCs trading at an average -25% discount to NAV imply a 34% to 79% cumulative default rate, which is 5x...
Software Loans Keep Default Rates Below 2% Amid AI Panic
AI fears have flipped the direct lending business on its head. Historically, software has exhibited the lowest default rate in private credit at 1.4%, below the average of 2-3%. https://t.co/Ff7NdOcqJI