CrowdStrike Boosts Buyback by $500M, Total $1.5B
CrowdStrike $CRWD just announced a $500M increase to its Share Buyback plans, This bring the total authorization under the program to $1.5 billion
Private Credit Redemption Surge Sparks AI Loan Risk Trade
Macro: private credit faces redemption surge; Key: redemption caps, AI risk to software loans; Risk: loan impairment and valuation pressure; Trade: overweight Goldman’s GS Credit vs capped peers. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Cash: Unlimited Call Option, Pure Financial Flexibility
Warren Buffett: “Cash is a call option with no expiration date.” Takeaway: Liquidity equals flexibility.
Oracle Appoints Former Schneider Electric CFO Hilary Maxson
NEWS: Oracle has named Hilary Maxson as CFO, effective April 6. Maxson previously served as Group CFO at Schneider Electric and spent 12 years at AES Corporation
Vol‑Control Funds Keep Selling as RV Spread Doubles
At the start of the year 1M RV was printing 8-9%. It has more than doubled. Vol-control funds are required by mandate to keep cutting equity exposure until that spread closes. Wouldn't be surprised to see this "unwind" a little...
AI IPOs Face Unprecedented $100B+ Computing Losses
Taking a look at OpenAI and Anthropic’s finances ahead of their IPOs OpenAI expects to spend $121 billion on computing power for AI research in 2028...anticipates burning $85 billion that year even after almost doubling sales from the prior year....
Musk Leverages SpaceX Funding to Revive X Advertising
Elon Musk pressures potential SpaceX investors to use Grok and advertise on X Major firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reportedly investing millions SpaceX IPO targets $1–2 trillion+ valuation, one of the largest ever The move is seen as attempt to boost X...
Dimon: Private Credit Losses Rising, Yet Not Systemic Threat
Jamie Dimon on private credit (via his annual shareholder letter): Actual losses right not are already a little higher than they should be, relative to the environment. "By and large, private credit does not tend to have great transparency or rigorous...
Tiny 1.5% Error vs $600 B AI Budget
Here I am concerned about a 1.5% miss in expenses while the OpenAI CFO is thinking $600B spend over a few years is a tad too much…
Consider Fully Diluted Shares for True Market Cap
Investors should look at fully diluted shares outstanding #FDSO when looking at the market cap of a company. Dilutive securities, including options, warrants, converts, etc, can have a meaningful impact on the actual market cap of a company #learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing...
Japanese Bond Yields Hit New Quad3 Cycle Highs
It's "off topic" for Macro Tourists this morning, but its still happening Japanese Bond Yields ramping to new #Quad3 Cycle Highs as markets price in higher inflation https://t.co/tz4Pb6zTgP
Aurobindo Pharma Announces 800‑Crore Tender Buyback at Premium
AUROBINDO PHARMA Tender Buyback Approved Buyback Price : 1,475₹ Today's Closing Price : 1,334 ₹ Buyback Size ₹ : 800 Crore Buyback Size in Shares : 54,23,728 Shares Retail Quota : 8,13,560 Shares Record Date for Buyback : 17 April, 2026
Gulf Funds Poised to Finance Paramount's $81B Warner Deal
MyPOV: the middle east to the rescue. Gulf Funds Near Deal to Back Paramount’s $81 Billion Takeover of Warner https://t.co/hTIMzrGhf5
Paramount Seeks $24B Saudi-Backed Equity for WBD Takeover
is this February news? Paramount is in talks to secure signed equity commitments of close to $24 billion from three sovereign-wealth funds led by Saudi Arabia to help back its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery https://t.co/7XR7k0sk2k via @WSJ
Saudi-Backed Funding Boosts Paramount's Warner Bid
Gulf sovereign capital speeds media consolidation. ~$24bn Saudi-led backing lowers financing risk for Paramount’s $81bn Warner bid. Risks: regs, execution, leverage. Trade: buy Paramount. 🔍 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
OpenAI’s $200B Losses Need Amazon‑style Discipline
I have been thinking about the news that Sam Altman wants to take OpenAI public by the end of 2026, while the company is still projected to lose more than $200 billion before it turns a profit. A lot of people...
Asset‑light Businesses with Moats Are the Ultimate Sweet Spot
Capital-intensive businesses can keep competitors out. But it's even better when a business is asset-light AND protected from competition. That's the real sweet spot. Low capital needs plus a wide moat.
Trump Frames Federal Budget as Plowshares‑to‑swords
My take on Trump's view of the US federal budget in @FortuneMagazine: "It's a classic plowshares into swords." https://t.co/feois7TZug
Acquire Competitors with SBA 7(a) for Cash Flow
The competitor acquisition is the one most existing business owners sleep on. SBA 7(a) covers it. You eliminate the competition and add cash flow at the same time. One of the cleanest deal theses we close. More operators should be looking at...
CLO Equity Fund Discounted yet Still Offers 24% Yield
OXLC cut its distribution 50%. The price crashed 60%. And the yield is STILL 24%. Here's the catch — and why this CLO equity fund trading at a 16% discount might actually be interesting for the first time in years: https://t.co/oLGHvO4MvQ
Deal Timeline: 60‑90 Days, Diligence
Solid framework. What it doesn't show: steps 4-6 take 60-90 days and a bad month during diligence can reprice or kill the deal. Also that 5% seller note goes on standby for 2 years per SBA rules. Structure works when...
Link All Three Statements to Avoid Cash Crises
Every small business should have a 3 statement model. Most don't. Here's why that's a problem. I see this all the time. Business owner pulls up QuickBooks. Looks at the P&L. "Revenue's up. Expenses look fine. We're good." Two weeks later they're scrambling...
From Struggling Buyout to Global Fund Builder
My conversation with @PRamanathan on how he helped lead a management buyout of a struggling cathodic protection business in 2003 and turned it into Corrosion Technology Services. Himself local to Dubai, Ram's company, CTS, includes 10 companies operating across 8 countries...
AI Unicorns Poised for $2 Trillion Valuations
What are my current valuation predictions for OpenAI and Anthropic? OpenAI was valued at $28B in April 2023. Its latest funding round puts it at $852B. Anthropic was valued at $4B in early 2023. Today, it’s worth $380B. In my...
Wall Street Launches 24/7 Tokenized Trading for Trillions
Wall Street Braces for 24/7 Trading via Tokenization DTCC intends to tokenize entire $100 trillion asset catalog, beginning with U.S. Treasuries later this year. NYSE Digital Trading Platform (announced Jan 2026): 24/7 onchain trading + settlement of U.S. equities/ETFs, instant settlement,...
Growth Wins When SBC Dilution Stays Low
SaaS dilution check: growth is strong, but SBC is the hidden tax👇 This chart maps SBC/Revenue vs NTM growth • Red → SBC exceeds FCF margin (value leakage) • Yellow → moderate dilution • Green → disciplined compensation Market is starting to price efficiency, not...
Rising Private Credit Redemptions Signal Potential Trouble
My latest memo on the private credit market: Redemptions Are Climbing — Is That a Problem? https://t.co/QbeBHZNKir https://t.co/0CaMneVvAU
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Hits Two-Year High
The S&P 500's equity risk premium is at a 2-year high.. even with higher TIPS yields @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/T5y4c7SbGO
AI Ready to Replace 500‑Year‑Old Finance System
Every company still runs its finances on a system from 1494 — when the fastest way to move information was a man on a horse. Wrote why I think AI and real financial networks are finally ready to replace it. Long read,...
Rule of 40: Market Rewards Balanced Growth
Rule of 40 is where SaaS valuation meets reality Growth alone isn’t enough 👇 Chart combines NTM growth + GAAP EBITDA margin • >40 = high-quality balance (green) • 30–40 = acceptable (yellow) • <30 = weak efficiency (red) Market is clearly rewarding balance, not just...
Forward Yield Spike Signals Looming Global Debt Crisis
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...
UK Tax Allowances Reset Tomorrow—Prepare Your Finances
Allowances, reliefs, and tax rates reset tomorrow in the United Kingdom. That includes: ¬ ISA allowance ¬ Dividend allowance ¬ Capital Gains allowance ¬ Savings income allowance ¬ Personal allowance ¬ Income tax rates ¬ Corporation tax rates ¬ And more Make sure you’re prepared for any upcoming changes. They...
Paying Premium? Demand Rapid Growth and Strong Metrics
If you're going to pay an expensive valuation, the business better be growing fast with exceptional financial metrics. High valuations with slow growth is the worst combination in investing. You're paying up for nothing.
Southampton's £158 M Revenue Dwarfed by 73% Wage Costs
Wembley bound Southampton submit 24/25 accounts, when the Club finished 20th in the Premier League. 🔑 figures ⚽️Revenue £158m ⬆️ 86% ⚽️Wages £116m ⬆️ 43% ⚽️Wages 73% of revenue ⚽️Underlying loss £62m ⬇️29% ⚽️Player sale profits £29m ⚽️Pre tax loss £54m (profit £17m) ⚽️Total accumulated losses £197m ⚽️Player...
China's Bad‑Loan Market Grows Amid Squeezed Bank Margins
China Daily notes that non-performing loan disposals are rising, suggesting that China is slowly developing a bad-loan market, even as record low net-interest margins make it harder for banks to recognize bad loans. https://t.co/UhXgPDv3nE
CAG Flags ₹34,000 Cr Unsurrendered Savings in J&K
The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India has flagged a major budgetary violation in Jammu and Kashmir, where over ₹34,000 crore in savings remained unsurrendered by government departments during the 2023–24 financial year. This failure to return unspent funds to the Finance Department violates...
Record Cash Reserves Signal Prime Buying Opportunity
Current cash levels in a historical perspective, as per the BofA FMS. Feels like a good time to buy https://t.co/KoeTO5ThBC
Fiat Money Can't Fill Oil Supply Gap
Since questions about private credit are so popular today, I had a segment with Danny about the topic:
Design Beats Data: Clean Visuals Drive Executive Buy‑in
I believe design often matters more than data. Controversial? Maybe. But I've seen too many great analyses get ignored because the spreadsheet looked like a mess. Here's what I mean. You spend hours building a model. The numbers are perfect. Every formula...
Analysts Predict S&P 500 EPS Surge to $320‑$373
Too bad there's no prediction market for S&P 500 CY EPS.. seems like just about everyone doesn't believe the current bottom-up estimates are anything close to reality... 2026 $320 2027 $373 @factset @kalshi https://t.co/b7iCflisq8
Inflation Ties Stocks and Bonds, Boosting Bond Yields
Inflationary regime... stocks & bonds moving together JPMAM While that means less diversification, it also means higher bond yields vs the 2010s.. when bonds zigged when stocks zagged... it's a trade-off. https://t.co/VNDHInIcmI
ICE Pours $600M Into Polymarket, Launches Institutional Data Tool
ICE Invests Further $600M Into Polymarket ICE launched Polymarket Signals & Sentiment tool (Feb 2026): normalizes chaotic real-time trading data into structured feed = institutional traders see Polymarket's implied probabilities next to bond yields + S&P 500 futures. Context: Polymarket launching...
Profitability Drives SaaS Premium Multiples Over Growth
SaaS valuations aren’t random — they cluster around growth + profitability Forward EV/Gross Profit vs NTM growth shows: • Higher growth → higher multiples (expected) • But operating margin is the real filter • Profitable names (green) consistently trade at premium $NET — 48x EV/GP...
Asset-Light Myth: Investments Now Hit Income, Not Balance Sheet
"I always thought this idea of asset light was a bit of a myth because if you're just laser focused on investment, you're just realizing the investment was not in the balance sheet as it was historically, it's now...
Probability‑Adjusted DCF: Essential Tool for Valuing Pre‑Profit Biotechs
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology Though it too has drawbacks #DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus https://t.co/1sfTMkZ6kO
Regulators' Data Mandate Created Massive Identity Leak
A fintech left tens of thousands of government identity docs on a public server for 5 years. Not rogue behavior. Standard behavior under a framework that mandates collection but not protection. Regulators built the honeypot. Companies just filled it. https://t.co/xpczIoR9i0
Peace of Mind Comes From Knowing Your Numbers
Closing out a week where you actually know your numbers? That feeling is everything. You know your buffer is there. You know what's coming out next week — the subscriptions, the payroll, all of it. Already accounted for. Nothing sneaking up...
Coinbase and Ripple Secure Conditional OCC Trust Bank Approval
Both Coinbase and Ripple have conditional approval from the OCC for a national trust bank. https://t.co/G5nAw4oeqg
Yield to Maturity Drives 5‑Year Returns, 89% R²
Fixed income: The YTM matters greatly.. 89% r-squared in terms of determining your 5-year return JPMAM https://t.co/b6f4gSRgeA
OpenAI Nears $1 Trillion Mark Among Elite Titans
Felt like a good day to remind ourselves that there 12 public companies with a market cap >$1T and are here are some high-level financials on them. With today's announcement, OpenAI is worth ~$0.9T. (Data from Gemini.) https://t.co/44feWVSf4X