CFOs Must Build AI Governance, Not Just Prompts
🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 This month's Secret CFO Playbook will be the No BS Guide to AI for CFOs. Tomorrow I kick off a 4-part newsletter series getting deep into the CFO-grade issues in rolling out AI for finance. It's time to move AI out of the sandbox... CFOs must now be focusing on how to enable the systems and environment to unleash AI across their teams and the business. And that doesn't come from better prompts. It comes from workflow redesign, architecture decisions, shared systems, and institutional capability. In this series these are the kind of questions I'll be tackling: - How do I build a governance architecture that gives my 50-person finance team the freedom to build with AI at scale? - Who is ultimately accountable in the event of a data leak from finance; CFO, CIO, or CISO? - How do I know if the AI output in front of me is right, and what does my review framework need to look like? - How do I manage the liability risk that comes with a regulatory filing AI helped prepare? - How clean does my data need to be before AI becomes useful, and to what extent can AI be part of solving that problem? - How do I use AI to attack the inefficient seams between functions without developing tools in silos? - I've spent eight figures on a tech stack that's 60% utilised, how do I use AI to unlock the 40%? - Should I deploy AI into the consumer-facing layer first (reporting, dashboards, modelling, etc) or go deeper into the tech stack? - Where do I even start when the tool landscape is changing faster than I can evaluate it? - How do I get our legal and IT teams off the fence so my finance function can actually start? - What is the long-term ROI case for AI adoption when we don't yet know the true unit cost? - To what extent should finance row its own boat on AI adoption versus waiting for the rest of the organization? - Where do I buy tools? Where do we build ourselves? Where do I hire to build custom? If these are your questions, this is your series. Sign up now to get part 1 direct to your inbox at 8:45 ET tomorrow. You can find the link in my profile. PS - we'll be kicking it all off tomorrow with a case study on Walmart's spectacular approach to AI adoption.
SoFi's Fintech Façade Hides Risky Unsecured Loan Engine
$SOFI's "fintech" mask hides a massive unsecured lending operation - Bank in disguise: lending ~90% of profits, NII >60% - Growth driven by risky unsecured loans in a saturated market - Aggressive accounting inflates earnings - Re-rate to bank multiples => 60%+ downside https://t.co/ZZ8DRGoMRM
Chinese Government Bonds Stand Out as War Safe Haven
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven. More on this in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/jQYKfLr6kx
Commodity Funds Inflow Doubles, No Long‑Side Cap
A lot of folks saying funds are maxed out on the long side. You do know there is no magical area where it stops on either the long or short side with the funds. 👉 Net new capital into...
Revolut's Tiny Fine Masks Looming AML Supervision Costs
Revolut's 2025 profit: $2.3 billion. The Lithuanian AML fine: €3.5 million. Trivial relative to profit. But it may have just put Revolut at the top of AMLA's direct supervision list starting 2028. AMLA supervision isn't a fine. It's a permanent structural overhead. That changes...
Intense Team Collaboration Fuels Deal Sourcing
A month ago, I asked a GP of a $180mm AUM fund who has done 16 acquisitions how they find attractive $1-5mm EBITDA cash-flow businesses: "I truly believe our secret sauce is sourcing. If you asked us to pinpoint the one...
Shift to US Treasuries as Gold Peaks
I'm not supposed to give investment advice, but compliance has never said I can't suggest overweighting US Treasuries :) Tinderbox Seeking a Spark: US Treasuries vs. Gold A basic factor may be all that's needed to spur some reversion from the...
Inside the Real Work of Investment Bankers Daily
NEW ODD LOTS: This is what investment bankers actually do all day. @tracyalloway and I talk to Scott Bok, former longtime CEO of Greenhill & Co, to understand better what the industry does and why companies pay up for their services https://t.co/bLORIQJ8Oq
Fintechs Chartering Banks Face Traditional Price‑book Valuations
Gonna be interesting to see what happens to all these fintechs that are chartering banks, which are commonly valued on a price/book basis (rather than imaginary startup metrics, like rev multiples or MAUs)
Centuries of Tech, but Finance Tools Stay Static
In 532 years, we went from quill pens to quantum computers. The system businesses use to understand their own finances? Unchanged.
Blue Owl’s Credit Woes Mask Hidden Asset Value
$OWL hit all-time lows today after record redemption requests. The credit business deserves every bit of this. But Blue Owl also has a GP Stakes business and a real assets business that have zero direct connection to software loans or BDC redemptions. Ran...
Foreign Central Banks Boost Fed Holdings by $3.3 Bn
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Bond Vigilantes Reprice Yields as Oil Shocks Drive Inflation Outlook
Bond Vigilantes are repricing yield curves worldwide as oil shocks reshape inflation expectations. Global spreads reveal where markets see the biggest shifts ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/ntInn7MIg4
Forward Curve Isn't a Forecast—Don't Trust Future Prices
🔹Be careful: the forward curve is not a forecast. It has rarely matched actual realized prices. For example, if you assume the December 2026 futures price reflects where the market will actually be at that time, you’re to be...
Monthly Bookkeeping Protects Deductions and Cuts Tax Overpayments
Messy books = missed deductions. If your bookkeeping isn’t updated monthly, you are guessing at your tax bill. And guessing is expensive. Accurate bookkeeping: • Protects deductions • Prevents overpaying taxes • Helps you plan quarterly This is CEO behavior. Follow for the next tax move. Comment “60”...
Hospitals Blind to Costs, Overreliant on Consultants
Most hospitals don't know their costs. Things I've asked for that made them roll their eyes : A BOM for surgeries P&L for each insurance carrier P&L for Medicaid or Medicare business Why do they need consultants for everything. ...
Tether Seeks $500 B Valuation in New Fundraising Round
JUST IN: Tether's pushing to finalize a fundraising round at a $500 billion valuation, according to The Information.
Never Put Clients in Debt, Prioritize Financial Health
"The borrower is slave to the lender." That verse lives in my head — and it shapes everything about how I work with clients. I will never let someone go into debt to work with me. Period. If the numbers don't support...
Bond Traders Show Minimal Bearishness Ahead of Jobs Report
Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the...
Every Day Delays Cut Collections; Automation Recovers 200% More
an invoice at 30 days has a 95% chance of being collected in full. at 60 days it drops to 70%. at 90 days, 45%. at 120 days, 20%. every day an invoice ages, money evaporates. companies that start collection efforts after...
OCIC Redemption Spike Covered by Quarterly Tender Liquidity
Blue Owl's non traded BDC, OCIC, received redemption requests for 21.9% of the fund. Is it cooked? No, it'll be fine. Here's why: 1) Portfolio turnover and 5% quarterly tender - OCIC tenders for 5% of its fund each quarter (20% per annum),...
Essential First Steps Before Buying a Business
LIVE - Buying a Business? What You NEED to Know First with Chris Papin https://t.co/2ry1qMoroe
AI Now Files Your Federal Taxes, Accelerating White‑Collar Takeover
Wild. Perplexity Computer is now a tax accountant. Select "Navigate my taxes" on Computer and it guides you through your entire federal return. The AI takeover of white-collar work is moving faster than anyone predicted.
Private Credit Strain Could Spike Borrowing Costs, Stall Tech Boom
The Economist: "As private-credit funds’ woes intensify, they will raise the cost of borrowing for firms across the economy, at a time when the Iran war is weighing on companies’ margins. The cost of debt in public markets has already...
Python Reduces Portfolio Optimization to Four Lines
Stop trading with Excel. Start trading with Python. Portfolio optimization is literally 4 lines of Python code:
Gold Sellers Beware: Iran's CNY Deal Triggers Arbitrage
They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY… …and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to...
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Deep Discounts Drive High Redemption Tenders in Blue Owl Funds
Blue Owl Credit Income (OCIC) with 21.9% tendering for redemption and Blue Owl Technology Income (OTIC) with 40.7% tendering for redemption makes sense as both have publicly-traded "sister" funds that trade at large discounts to NAV: Blue Owl Capital $OBDC trades...
Gold ETFs Outpace Bitcoin Amid Market Turmoil
NEW EPISODE: Bloomberg's @JSeyff returns to the show to break down major developments in the ETF world. Who's holding through the 50% Bitcoin crash. What Morgan Stanley's filing means for the space. And why gold ETFs beat Bitcoin...for now. Streaming wherever...
600
She dropped a 600-word equity research note in 2007. It erased $369B in market cap, ousted a CEO, and made her a Wall Street legend.
Monument Bank Launches BaaS Platform for Building Societies
Monument Bank isn't just tokenizing deposits for its own clients. It's packaging the entire blueprint - legal, regulatory, technical - as a BaaS platform for building societies. First client: Ecology Building Society. From interest income to recurring SaaS fees. Details https://t.co/JGUF1elkZI
Private Credit Redemptions Surge, Confirming Multiples Prediction
On the Julia LaRoche show 1 week ago I predicted the next round of Private Credit redemption requests would be a multiple of the last one (which led to gating in some cases). Check out today’s headlines.
EBITDA Compares, Not Values: Beware Cash Flow Gaps
Charlie Munger famously said: "every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the words 'bullshit earnings'." He's half right. (yah look at me contradicting the eternal god of wisdom) But for real investors mess up when they try and use EBITDA...
AI Compute Becomes Collateral, Turning Expense Into Asset
CoreWeave just borrowed $8.5B using AI chips as collateral. Larger than the GDP of 40 countries. AI compute is no longer an expense. It's a financial asset. Every AI infrastructure decision you make now has balance sheet implications.
UK Gilts Mirror Trump’s Spoof: Market Holds the Power
Gilts are to the sitting UK government what Spoos is to Trump; the game will continue until either market says no more.
Hedge Fund Mirrors 5x Ultra Oil ETF, Resetting After Collapse
This dude is basically running his hedge fund as a 5x Ultra ETF on oil, and if he blows up, he just restarts again with the exact same model. #scenes.
Dev Kantesaria Doubts Big Tech's Capital Allocation Predictability
Dev Kantesaria on not investing in $META and Big Tech "I was never happy with the capital allocation of these big tech businesses... it doesn't have the predictability that we like to see."
Oracle Data Center Debt Costs Surge to High‑Yield Levels
Wow, borrowing costs on Oracle data center projects have widened to as high as S+450 $ORCL is IG. The data centers being built for Oracle are pricing like high yield.
Hospitals Overspend on Consultants and Supplies, Resist Savings
Why aren’t any of these at risk hospitals publishing their full accounting so everyone can see where they spend their money ? All but one group of hospitals that I have looked at potentially investing in, spend so much on consultants...
Gold: The Risk‑Free Reserve Asset No Forecast Needed
A good interview we did 18 months ago with Anthony Deden: "The reason we own gold as a reserve asset is rooted in something fundamental. What makes gold compelling are the risks we do not take by owning it. No...
Global Quad3 Stagflation Triggers Bond Yield Surge
US Stocks Only Fans don't get it, but The Bond Market does It's called Global #Quad3 Stagflation with a breakout in Bond Yields https://t.co/LfjSg2suV3
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$BILD.V is a “boring” flooring roll-up led by a CEO who understands capital allocation. While the housing sector is weak, co is acquiring assets at 1–2x EBITDA. In 2–3 years, it could be trading at a 13–15% FCF yield, with further roll-up...
Caterpillar Ramps up $3.5B Capex to Meet Rising
Now throw in double memory (DRAM) costs, double energy construction (diesel) costs, not in my back yard impact. * $CAT is investing aggressively to expand. Capex juiced, $3.5B planned for 2026, +25% YoY) specifically to boost capacity.
Activists Target Hidden ONE Cash, Driving Discounted Value
Another standard-looking activist headline, but for those in the know, this situation runs a lot deeper. I’ll explain. Elliott is asking shipping firm Mitsui OS&K for better cash returns to shareholders. Quite a standard approach for activists everywhere, and Japan is...
Juniper's Revenue Soared to $673M with 22% Margin
Juniper Networks revenue ramp from 1998 to 2000 was a sight to behold 0 > 4m > 102m > 673m With 22% net income margin @vkhosla cooked https://t.co/jsIBekI6Wy
Figma's IPO: Record Pop, Then Record Plunge
Figma holds two stock price records: 1. Biggest "IPO pop" of major IPOs (or any SaaS company) since 1999 2. Largest subsequent loss from the IPO pop after 6 months (see thread) https://t.co/Z7h6AnLHkI
EVO Allocates All Excess Cash to Share Buybacks
$EVO to distribute 100% of excess cash to share repurchases "The board has decided to distribute 100 percent of excess cash, exclusive to any M&A activity. The distribution of excess capital will generally be done through repurchase of own shares." - 2025...
Fake Fees Masked Franchise Losses at Boston Chicken
Boston Chicken redux. Boston Chicken parent lent money to franchisees; that money then did a U-turn and became fee income to itself. So they effectively transmuted their own capital into income, which of course Wall Street loved, until it turned...
Seeking Reliable Metric for OpenAI Secondary Share Pricing
is there a reliable metric on the price of secondary shares for a big startup like OpenAI?
Free ARR Dashboard Reveals Hidden Growth Metrics
This ARR dashboard is one of our best selling templates at $63. It tracks 20+ SaaS metrics at monthly, quarterly, and annual granularity. Today you can have it for free 👇 https://t.co/U664G2r5QL I manage 35 to 40 SaaS startups as a fractional CFO. And I...