Charai for The National Interest: Why Iran Was Always a Threat to the US
Ahmed Charai argues that Iran has been a strategic threat to the United States since the 1979 revolution, driven by its pursuit of regional hegemony and asymmetric capabilities. He highlights Tehran’s expanding ballistic‑missile inventory, its accelerated nuclear enrichment, and its extensive proxy networks across the Middle East. The analysis also details Iran’s growing maritime aggression in the Strait of Hormuz, which jeopardizes global energy flows. Charai concludes that U.S. policy must blend deterrence with calibrated diplomatic engagement to curb Tehran’s destabilizing behavior.
Xi Just Can’t Shake GDP Worship
Ahead of the Two Sessions, President Xi released a new collection of speeches emphasizing a "correct view of political performance," signaling a shift away from the GDP‑centric evaluation that has driven China’s bureaucracy for decades. Xi now expects officials to...
Dow Slides 768 Points on Inflation Fears: Stock Market Today
U.S. equities fell sharply on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged but highlighted persistent inflation, sending the Dow Jones down 1.6% to 46,224. Elevated producer‑price index numbers—0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.4% year‑over‑year—exceeded expectations, reinforcing concerns about price...
Dollar Gains on Weak Stocks and Hawkish Fed
The dollar index rose 0.51% after U.S. February producer prices outperformed forecasts, with final‑demand PPI up 0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.4% year‑over‑year and core PPI climbing 3.9% YoY—the strongest gain in 13 months. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged...
Weaker Dollar and Diversification Drive Global Investors Toward Emerging Markets, Says Finnfund
Global investors are rapidly shifting capital into emerging markets as a weaker U.S. dollar and a push for diversification away from the United States drive demand. Over the past twelve months the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 47%, far...
Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2026
The Peterson Institute for International Economics released its spring 2026 Global Economic Prospects, outlining the latest outlook for the United States and major world economies. Karen Dynan warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict and volatile energy prices are tightening growth...
BRICS Is Divided on Iran. So Are NATO and the G-7.
BRICS members remain divided over the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with China and Brazil condemning the attacks while India stays neutral and South Africa hesitates. The bloc’s recent expansion to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE has...
Trump Admin Waives Jones Act for 60 Days
The White House has temporarily waived the Jones Act for 60 days, easing U.S. vessel restrictions amid heightened geopolitical tension. Simultaneously, the war in Iran and a Greek tanker attack in the Black Sea have driven up container rates and...
Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 FOMC statement kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent, pausing further hikes. The Committee noted solid economic expansion, modest job gains and a stable unemployment rate, while inflation remains somewhat elevated...
The Era of Cheap Money Is over as the Iran War Creates a Permanent 'Inflation Floor'
The Iran war has created a lasting inflation floor, signaling the end of the post‑2008 era of cheap money. Persistent oil price spikes and supply disruptions are forcing nations to prioritize energy security over cost efficiency. Central banks, which previously...
Cramer Weighs in on 'Hack Downgrade' Of Starbucks — and What's Behind Amazon's Dip
Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investing Club highlighted a market pull‑back driven by hotter‑than‑expected wholesale inflation data and rising oil prices amid Middle‑East tensions. Amazon stock slipped nearly 2% after a Reuters report warned that AI‑driven cloud spending could surge, prompting concerns...
Economic Uncertainty and Digital Payment Infrastructure
The ongoing Middle East conflict has driven oil‑gas price spikes, heightening economic uncertainty across the region. In the Philippines, digital‑payment platforms have become a key buffer, with 72 % of consumer transactions conducted electronically in 2025 and a three‑fold rise in...
Higher Energy Prices Might Eat Your Tax Refund, Economists Say
Stanford economists estimate that rising gasoline prices could cost the average U.S. household about $740 this year, roughly matching the projected $750 boost from the 2023 tax refund legislation. Their model assumes a brief Strait of Hormuz closure, with gasoline...
Congo Export Curbs to Keep Cobalt Scarce Till 2030
The Democratic Republic of Congo, responsible for over 70% of global cobalt, imposed an export ban in February 2025 and later introduced strict quotas, slashing refined output by roughly 20%. The curbs created an 82,000‑ton deficit in 2025 and drove...
Kenya Calls for African Self-Reliance Amid Global Upheaval
Kenya’s foreign minister Musalia Mudavadi urged African nations to boost self‑reliance as the Iran conflict fuels global fragmentation and rising oil prices. He framed the moment as a historic inflection point, calling for a multi‑alliance foreign policy that balances traditional...
Piraeus Declines 6% for Second Year, Cosco Ports Results Show
Cosco‑controlled Piraeus port reported a 6% drop in 2025 throughput, handling 3.97 million TEU, marking the second consecutive year of decline. Analysts attribute the loss to Red Sea disruptions that rerouted cargo to Spain and northern Europe rather than pure demand...
Chalmers Says Latest Treasury Modelling Shows Australia’s Inflation Could Reach 5%, as National Cabinet Meets on Fuel
Treasury modelling released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers indicates Australia’s headline inflation could peak in the high‑4s, potentially reaching 5%, as oil prices remain elevated. Two scenarios are examined: oil at $100 a barrel for the first half of the year,...
No ‘Last Hurrah’ Expected for US De Minimis as Legal Challenge Advances
The U.S. administration’s suspension of the de minimis exemption is now being challenged in the Court of International Trade after a lawsuit by auto‑parts retailer Detroit Axle alleges the move exceeds legal authority. The challenge follows a Supreme Court ruling that limited...
DA Seeks Fertilizer Supply Deals with China, Russia Amid Mideast Tensions
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is negotiating fertilizer supply agreements with China, Russia, India and Belarus as Middle‑East tensions threaten the flow of nitrogen‑based inputs. While the agency has already secured more than 80% of its annual fertilizer requirement, rising...
Official Statistics: Forecasts for the UK Economy: March 2026
The UK Treasury released its March 2026 edition of the monthly "Forecasts for the UK economy" comparison, collating short‑term and medium‑term projections from a selection of independent forecasters. The 19‑page PDF presents outlooks for 2025‑26 through 2029‑30, covering GDP, inflation, labour...
Instead of Shopping They’re Quietly Stockpiling Cash — ‘Shadow Saving’ — and It Could Short-Circuit the Global Economy
Chinese households are amassing cash at record levels, with deposits reaching roughly 118% of GDP by 2025, despite falling interest rates. A Reuters poll shows more than 80% of respondents prefer saving over spending, reflecting deep‑seated precautionary behavior. The shift...
Fed Meeting Updates: FOMC Set to Hold Rates Steady as Oil Prices Soar
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March 2026 meeting. The decision follows a February jobs report that revealed a loss of roughly 100,000 positions and a sharp rise in oil...
Hedge Funds Position for Potential BOJ Hawkish Tilt Amid Iran War Inflation Risks
Hedge funds such as Fivestar Asset Management are reshaping their Japanese bond and currency positions ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting, expecting Governor Kazuo Ueda to hint at a hawkish stance due to inflation pressures from the Iran...
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: What to Expect on 19 March
The Bank of England will announce its March 19 interest‑rate decision, weighing whether to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% or trim it by 25 basis points to 3.50%. A narrow 5‑4 vote in February highlighted deep divisions within the...
China’s Multibillion-Dollar Minerals Investment Lifts Foreign Economies: Report
Since 2023, China has poured more than $120 billion into overseas mining and mineral‑processing projects, covering lithium, rare‑earth metals and battery components. The Australian think‑tank Climate Energy Finance says the outflow fuels clean‑energy deployment in developing economies, supplying inputs for solar,...
European Structured Finance and the Middle East War: Resilient So Far but Risks Rising
Despite the Middle East war, European securitisation issuance has remained remarkably active, excluding BSL CLOs. The conflict has nearly halted corporate lending markets, yet consumer‑focused asset classes show no systemic disruption. Pricing discipline has tightened and execution windows are more...
Qatar Can Keep Goods Flowing Amid Tensions, Customs Chief Says
Qatar’s customs chief assures that supply chains remain secure despite regional tensions, citing strategic reserves, digital customs systems, and multiple transport routes. The Al Nadeeb electronic platform and recent upgrades have accelerated clearance and increased transparency. Coordination with the GCC Customs...
Fastmarkets Set to Launch New Rare Earth Spot Prices to Capture Global Trade Outside China
Fastmarkets will introduce three new global spot prices for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, terbium oxide 99.99% and ferro‑dysprosium 80% on March 19. The move responds to Chinese export controls and dwindling non‑Chinese supply, which have forced Japan and other magnet‑dependent economies...
Delayed US-China Summit Raises Stakes for Takaichi Ahead of White House Visit
US President Donald Trump’s scheduled summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was postponed, pushing back the pre‑China coordination meeting ahead of Trump’s Beijing visit. Analysts link the delay to the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict and the newly announced Chinese meeting...
Israeli Strike Hits Central Beirut After Evacuation Warning
An Israeli airstrike hit Beirut’s central Bachoura neighbourhood on March 18 after the military warned residents to evacuate the building. The strike was part of a broader wave of attacks across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, following the militant group’s March 2 assault on...
Fed Set to Hold as Deutsche Bank Flags Geopolitics Clouding Outlook
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March 2024 meeting, with only modest tweaks to the post‑meeting statement. The bank says the Fed will downplay volatile payroll data and instead spotlight rising geopolitical...
India's Digital Economy to Account for 20% of GDP by 2030, Says MeitY Secy S Krishnan
India’s digital economy, currently contributing about 13 % of GDP, is projected to rise to nearly 20 % by 2030, growing at roughly twice the pace of the broader economy. The surge is driven by rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and expanding...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Mid-Point Today at 6.8909 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8798)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8909 for the current session, modestly above the 6.8798 market estimate. The central bank maintains the yuan’s daily fluctuation band at plus or minus 2% around this midpoint....
Turkey Emerges as Revived Route for Iraqi Oil Amid Hormuz Crisis
Iraq announced the rapid revival of the 600‑mile Kirkuk‑Ceyhan pipeline, aiming to resume crude shipments to Turkey and bypass the Hormuz bottleneck caused by the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict. The oil ministry expects the line to be operational within a week, targeting...
Philippines Down to Its Last Three Weeks of Fuel Reserves, Turns to Russia for Help
The Philippines faces a looming fuel shortage, with national reserves estimated at only three to four weeks of supply. The crisis stems from Iran’s restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for 20% of global oil, which has...
Reeves Plans to Give England’s Regional Leaders a Share of National Tax Revenues
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced plans to devolve a share of national tax revenues, starting with income tax, to England’s regional mayors. The Treasury will also allocate £2.3 bn in city investment funds and allow future business‑rates revenue to stay with metro...
Sustainable Farming Push Could Avoid £150bn Economic Hit, Report Warns
A cross‑party think‑tank report, funded by McCain Foods, warns that the UK could face a £150 billion economic hit by 2050 if sustainable farming is not scaled up. It estimates regenerative practices could unlock over £56 billion in natural capital by 2035...
Global Trade Flows Stay Resilient Despite War, Tariff, Geopolitical Tensions
The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 shows globalization holding steady at a 25% index in 2025, matching the 2022 peak. Global trade grew faster than any year since 2017, driven largely by a surge in AI‑related product shipments that accounted...
U.S. Hits Iranian Coastal Missile Sites With Bunker-Buster Bombs
U.S. Central Command confirmed that on March 17, 2026 it deployed multiple 5,000‑pound deep‑penetrator bunker‑buster bombs against hardened Iranian missile sites along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes targeted underground launch and storage facilities that could threaten...
Standard Chartered Predicts Oil Prices Will Remain Higher For Longer
Standard Chartered raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85.50 a barrel, up from $70, citing a 7.4‑8.2 million bpd supply cut from the Middle‑East war and limited off‑ramps. The bank projects quarterly Brent prices ranging from $78 in Q1 to $98...
RBA Responds to Domestic Strength and Rising External Risks
On March 17 the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points, marking its second straight increase and a sharp reversal from the gradual easing path pursued throughout 2025. The hikes respond to inflation running above...
Milei Blasts Iran on Anniversary of Attack on Israeli Embassy
Argentine President Javier Milei denounced Iran at a ceremony marking the 34th anniversary of the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires. He reiterated Argentina’s support for the United States and Israel amid the ongoing US‑Israeli military campaign...
Energy Economics Monitor: March 2026 Update
Energy Intelligence’s March 2026 update highlights rapid AI integration across the world’s 50 largest energy firms, with national oil companies leading and three regional hubs emerging in North America, Europe and the Gulf. Simultaneously, the escalating US‑Israel‑Iran conflict is disrupting...
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DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS: No Ambassador, No Problem — SA’s Unorthodox Approach to the US
President Cyril Ramaphosa has kept South Africa’s embassy in Washington without a formally appointed ambassador for over a year, opting to run the mission through Deputy Ambassador Thabo Thage as chargé d’affaires. Senior adviser Alistair Ruiters, based in Pretoria, has become the...
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Trump Says NATO's Refusal to Help on Iran Is "Very Foolish Mistake"
President Donald Trump criticized NATO allies for refusing to join the U.S.–Israeli military effort against Iran, calling the decision a “very foolish mistake.” He urged nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s attacks have threatened a key...
China Ramps Up Scrutiny of Meta’s Acquisition of Manus
China’s National Development and Reform Commission has summoned Meta and Manus executives to question the $2 billion acquisition of the Singapore‑based AI startup. The move appears aimed at penalising individuals linked to the deal and may include exit bans preventing Manus...
Clients Hope to Get Refunds From Tariffs
The Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, leaving importers entitled to refunds but without a clear administrative process. The Trump administration is developing an online portal for refund applications while simultaneously probing forced‑labor based...
Oil Prices Top $103 as U.S. Allies Reluctant to Escort Tankers in Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices surged on Tuesday, with Brent climbing to $103.42 a barrel and U.S. crude reaching $96.21, reflecting a 2‑3% jump amid heightened geopolitical tension. President Donald Trump warned that NATO allies are unwilling to join a U.S.-led naval escort...
No Severe Shocks Despite Crises, Says Sitharaman as She Highlights India's Economic Strength
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Rajya Sabha that India’s economy has withstood the pandemic, supply‑chain strains, the Russia‑Ukraine war, and the current West Asia conflict without severe shocks. She highlighted the passage of the Appropriation Bill 2026, which adds...
How the Iran War Could Trigger a Global Credit Crunch
The Iran‑Israel war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a vital source of petro‑capital that Gulf sovereigns traditionally channel into global finance. This disruption threatens the $1.4 trillion of assets held in UAE financial hubs and has already forced...