Airlines Face Fuel Shock as Middle East Crisis Tests Hedging Strategies
A sudden escalation in the Middle East has driven crude oil prices up nearly 40% in a week, pushing barrel prices toward $150 and sending jet‑fuel costs soaring. Fuel, the airline industry's largest variable expense, is now testing the resilience of differing risk‑management approaches. North American carriers have largely abandoned fuel‑hedging programmes, exposing them to immediate cost spikes, while many European airlines retain multi‑year hedge contracts that cushion price shocks. Asia‑Pacific airlines employ a hybrid mix shaped by local regulations and market exposure.
Trump and Putin Discuss End to Iran and Ukraine Wars on Call
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a roughly hour‑long phone call, their first since the Iran‑Russia conflict escalated. The leaders discussed proposals to end the war in Iran and linked those efforts to a potential resolution of...
Thai Bourse Buoyant on Return of Foreign Investors
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) says foreign investors will likely return once geopolitical tensions ease, positioning Thailand as a regional safe‑haven. Since the Middle East conflict, the SET index fell about 10.5% but remains 8.5% higher year‑to‑date, keeping Thailand...
Crisis Seen as Opportunity for Thailand
Caretaker finance minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas warned that Thailand’s soaring oil prices, now above $100 per barrel, present a pivotal chance to reshape the economy. He highlighted a 60% jump in BOI‑registered projects to 1.8 trillion baht, reflecting a wave of investors...
Hormuz Closure Sends Gas Prices Soaring, LNG Cargoes Toward Asia
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp rise in global natural‑gas prices, except in North America, which remains insulated by abundant domestic supply. The disruption forced several LNG carriers originally bound for Europe to reroute...
China Searches for a Way Out of Brazil’s Steel Barriers
Chinese steel exporters are confronting steep anti‑dumping duties in Brazil, ranging from $285 to $710 per tonne, which could render Chinese imports unviable for up to five years. The duties target pre‑painted, cold‑rolled, and coated steel, prompting Chinese firms to...
Costco Issues Urgent Warning to Shoppers
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have pushed crude oil into the mid‑$70‑per‑barrel range, sending the national average gasoline price up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. Analysts warn the pump price could climb to $3.50‑$3.70 soon and possibly breach...
Former Ag Secretary Says Tariffs Threaten Key Export Markets
Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman warned that presidential tariffs are endangering key export markets, especially for soybeans. He highlighted that U.S. agriculture relies heavily on overseas sales and that recent tariff measures have squeezed demand and farmgate prices....
Markets Watching for Trade Developments Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks
Agricultural markets are closely monitoring the upcoming face‑to‑face meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of March. The talks follow a late‑October summit that produced a trade framework committing China to 25 million...
The Company Behind One of Trump's Oft-Worn Shoe Brands Is Suing His Administration over Tariffs
Footwear maker Weyco Group, owner of Florsheim, filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking refunds for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The company alleges it paid up to a 145% duty on Chinese imports and...
Stocks Recover as Oil Retreats From $119: Stock Market Today
Crude oil futures hovered just below $119 per barrel, easing fears of a supply shock amid heightened Middle‑East tensions. The broader market rebounded, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.4%, the S&P 500 up 0.8% and the Dow rising 0.5% after a volatile...
Anne Applebaum Inspects the Shards of Post-War Order
Anne Applebaum warned that Europe is increasingly hedging against U.S. security and trade dependence as the Russia‑Ukraine war drags into its fifth year. She highlighted the erosion of the post‑World‑II liberal, rules‑based order, noting that terms like “liberal world order”...
The Iran Energy Shock Reverberates Across Financial Markets
The outbreak of war involving Iran has triggered a sharp contraction in oil output and transit, pushing global energy prices up by over 15 percent. The surge in energy costs is reigniting inflation expectations worldwide, prompting traders to anticipate more...
Hormuz Shipping Slowdown Spurs Port Congestion From India to Singapore
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stalled, with crossings dropping 66% and crude‑oil futures briefly spiking above $115 per barrel. The U.S. responded with a $20 billion maritime reinsurance program aimed at protecting vessels and cargo. The slowdown has...
EU Enlargement: What's in It for European Businesses?
EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos urged European firms to invest in candidate countries, citing past enlargement’s boost to exports, supply chains and GDP. She emphasized reforms—independent courts, anti‑corruption, free media—as prerequisites for safe investment. New research from the Confederation of...
4th Quarter Review: From Momentum to Selectivity
In the fourth quarter of 2025 U.S. markets extended gains while the margin for error narrowed across policy, valuation and data. Artificial‑intelligence demand remained robust, yet investors grew more selective, emphasizing balance‑sheet strength and near‑term cash flow. The Federal Reserve...
Redfin Economists’ Weekly Take: Mortgage Rates Poised For Volatility As Iran Conflict Escalates and Inflation Data Looms
Redfin economists warn that mortgage rates could remain volatile as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives oil prices toward levels last seen during the Ukraine war and fresh inflation data arrives. February core CPI is projected to rise 0.2% month‑over‑month, while the...
Tariff Uncertainty Expected to Weigh on U.S. Container Imports in First Half of 2026, NRF Says
The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker projects U.S. container imports will stay below last‑year levels through the first half of 2026 due to lingering tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risk. After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, the Trump...
Kazakhstan’s Pragmatic Foreign Policy Faces Uncertainty Amid Attacks Across the Middle East
Kazakhstan’s President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev has steered a pragmatic foreign policy through the recent wave of missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, opting for neutrality while maintaining diplomatic channels with Iran, Israel, Gulf states and the United States. He...
The US’s Critical Minerals Club Threatens an Equitable Clean Energy Transition
The United States is forming a critical‑minerals trading bloc aimed at breaking China’s dominance in supply chains for digital and defense technologies. The initiative downplays clean‑energy needs, even though analysis shows only a handful of the 33 minerals the UK...
Kwasi Kwarteng: Labour ‘at Risk’ without More Tax Rises Amid Bond Jitters
Former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng warned that the UK may need to introduce tax hikes as early as November to fund energy subsidies amid soaring oil prices and a sudden spike in government bond yields. He likened the current market turbulence...
The Iran Crisis and the BRICS Dilemma
The Iran‑U.S. conflict is spilling into the Gulf, forcing BRICS to confront its first major geopolitical test since the 2024 expansion. While Russia and China back Tehran’s strategic autonomy, India adopts a cautious stance to protect its Chabahar‑linked trade interests....
No, Turkey Is Not the New Iran
Israeli officials and U.S. think tanks are warning that Turkey could become a strategic rival comparable to Iran, citing President Erdogan’s authoritarian turn and regional ambitions. The article argues the "new Iran" label is misleading because Turkey lacks Iran’s ideological...
Gold Price Fades on Inflation Concerns, Silver Price Rebounds
Gold slipped to about $5,015 an ounce on Monday, a 3% intraday drop, before regaining most of the loss, as a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation‑driven rate worries kept investors on the sidelines. Silver, by contrast, rose over 2% to...
China’s Big Bet on Central Asia Is Paying Off
China’s investment strategy in Central Asia is moving beyond the debt‑trap stereotype, emphasizing joint ventures and infrastructure that fuel industrial growth. In 2025, Chinese foreign direct investment rose roughly 15% year‑on‑year, with Kazakhstan alone attracting about $12 billion in energy projects....
Global Disruptions Seen to Open Trade Opportunities for Asean – DTI
The Philippine Department of Trade and Industry says ongoing global disruptions – from the Middle East conflict to the US‑China trade war – are creating fresh trade openings for ASEAN. At the pre‑ASEAN Business Environment Forum (ABEF), DTI executive director...
VOL REPORT: Stagflation Fears Drive Widening Volatility Risk Premium
Stagflation concerns have pushed volatility risk premiums to record levels across commodities and equities. One‑month implied volatility for crude oil surged to 104%, the highest since 2020 and near 2008 crisis peaks, with the volatility risk premium now almost twice...
JPMorgan Just Put a 10% Price Tag on the Iran War
JPMorgan’s head of global market intelligence warned that the Iran war could push the S&P 500 down about 10%, citing oil prices breaching $120 a barrel and heightened inflation risk. The bank’s outlook marks a sharp reversal from earlier estimates of...
2 Big UK Car Associations Are Telling Drivers to Ditch Non-Essential Journeys as Oil Soars Above $100 a Barrel
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the Iran‑related conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude to near $120 in a single day. In response, the UK’s AA and RAC urged motorists to skip non‑essential trips and adopt...
Recession Odds Jump on Kalshi After Oil Tops $100
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi saw recession odds climb above 34% on Monday, the highest level since November, after U.S. crude oil breached the $100 per barrel threshold. The surge in oil prices follows recent Middle‑Eastern output cuts and the closure of...
As Trump Tariff Refund Process Takes Shape, Importers Remain Uncertain
U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced it will create a refund process for Trump‑era tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, aiming to launch within 45 days. The agency has not yet detailed how importers will file refunds in the Automated...
Europe’s “Limited Responsibility” Model Must Go
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that Europe’s “limited responsibility” fiscal framework must be abandoned to protect prosperity and sovereignty. She made the remarks at an informal European Council meeting and the Munich Security Conference, calling for deeper fiscal...
Iran Conflict Tests 2026 Air Cargo Outlook
Xeneta’s March 5 report warns that the Iran‑U.S./Israel conflict is reshaping the 2026 air cargo outlook. February showed a 6 % YoY volume rise and spot rates up 5 % to $2.58/kg, indicating resilience. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, jet‑fuel costs could...
What Ukraine Can Learn From Poland’s Rocky EU Accession in 2004
Ukraine has set 2027 as its target for full EU membership, framing accession as an existential and strategic priority amid an ongoing war. Since accession talks began in June 2024, Kyiv has completed screening of 33 negotiation chapters in under...
Pre-Markets Down as Middle East Tensions Remain
Pre‑market trading is under pressure as the Iran conflict pushes WTI and Brent crude above $100 a barrel, lifting oil prices 78% year‑to‑date. Major indices are slipping, with the Dow down 1.16%, the S&P 500 off 1.05% and the Nasdaq losing...
Iran War Pushes Rupiah Close to Historic Low
The United States‑Israeli war on Iran has driven the Indonesian rupiah to Rp 17,009 per dollar, flirting with its 1997‑1998 crisis low. Bloomberg data show the currency briefly breaching the Rp 17,000 psychological barrier before settling near Rp 16,950. The conflict has also...
Iran Names a New Supreme Leader. What to Know About the Successor to the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Iran's Assembly of Experts appointed 56‑year‑old Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah, as the new supreme leader amid an ongoing war with Israel and heightened attacks across the Middle East. The appointment reinforces the Revolutionary Guard’s hard‑line stance and...
Calm Amid Storm: Indian Founders Hold Steady As Middle East Tensions Rise
Escalating US‑Israel and Iran conflict is disrupting tech hubs across the Middle East, prompting global giants like Microsoft, Nvidia and Amazon to shut their Dubai offices and shift staff to remote work. Indian founders based in Dubai report that day‑to‑day...
GOP Whip Tom Emmer Predicts Oil Prices Will Drop After Iran War
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told CNBC that oil prices, which surged above $100 per barrel after Middle Eastern production cuts tied to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, will "tumble" once the operation concludes. President Donald Trump echoed the short‑term...
Africa Gets Duty-Free Access to China – But Chinese Companies Win on Both Sides
Starting May 1, China will waive import duties on virtually all goods from every African nation except Eswatini, expanding a previous exemption for 33 least‑developed countries. The move, announced by President Xi at the African Union summit, is framed as...
International Business Briefs | Saudi Arabia Joins Neighbours in Cutting Oil Output
Saudi Aramco has begun curbing output at two fields as the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck from the US‑Israeli war with Iran rattles global oil supplies. Meanwhile, Roche’s breast‑cancer drug giredestrant failed a late‑stage trial, sending its shares down more than...
Europe Shouldn’t Fear Trade War with China, EU Agency Says
The EU Institute for Security Studies recommends an “escalate to de‑escalate” approach toward China, urging faster use of the Anti‑Coercion Instrument (ACI), the bloc’s most powerful trade‑defence tool. The report notes China’s growing trade surplus of €359.3 billion and its leverage...
Any Attack on Innocent Seafarers Unacceptable: IMO Secretary-General
International Maritime Organization Secretary‑General Arsenio Domínguez condemned a series of attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, noting at least seven seafarer deaths and multiple injuries. He highlighted the missile strike on the tug Mussafah 2, which killed four...
Artificial Intelligence and Aggregate Productivity
Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials highlight artificial intelligence as a key driver of future productivity growth. They differentiate labor productivity—real GDP per hour worked—from total factor productivity (TFP), both illustrated in a FRED series covering 1988‑2024. Economists contend AI...
Oil Prices Soar to $120 a Barrel as Iran Names New Supreme Leader
Oil prices surged to near $120 a barrel as Iran’s conflict intensified following the appointment of a new supreme leader, then retreated to about $106 for Brent and $103 for WTI. The fighting threatens production and shipping in the Persian...
Air Cargo Turns to Trucks as Middle East Disruption Sends Rates Soaring
Air cargo networks across the Gulf are crippled by flight cancellations and airspace closures, prompting forwarders to reroute freight by truck, especially through Saudi Arabia. Freight rates have surged, with southern‑Asia to North America lanes up 36% and Asia‑Europe lanes...
Taiwan's February Exports Rise for 28th Straight Month, Hit New High
Taiwan’s February exports surged 20.6% year‑on‑year to US$49.8 billion, marking the 28th consecutive month of growth and pushing the trade surplus to US$12.77 billion. The first two months of 2026 recorded US$115.57 billion in exports, up 44.5% – the strongest bi‑annual performance in...
Fertilizer Prices Are Skyrocketing, Are Food Prices Next?
Fertilizer prices are soaring as the United States, Israel and Iran become entangled in a new geopolitical conflict, disrupting key Middle‑East supply chains. The spike mirrors the 2022 commodity shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent grain, fertilizer...
House Leadership Files Fuel Excise Tax Suspension Bill; Public Hearing Set Tuesday
House leaders filed HB 8292, allowing the Philippine President to suspend or reduce fuel excise taxes during national or global emergencies, triggered by soaring oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. The bill sets a concrete threshold—Dubai crude at $80 per...
Taiwan's Economic Gauge Stays 'Red' For 2nd Straight Month in January
Taiwan’s National Development Council reported its composite economic gauge at 39 in January, keeping the index in the red zone for a second straight month and signaling an overheating economy. The money‑supply sub‑index (M1B) improved to a green light, while...