Philip R Lane: Bulgaria and the Euro
Philip R. Lane praised Bulgaria’s smooth euro cash changeover, noting that euros now represent 70 percent of cash in circulation as the dual‑lev/euro period ends on 31 January 2026. The speech highlighted Bulgaria’s new seat at the ECB Governing Council, giving the country a voice in euro‑area monetary policy. Lane outlined how a larger monetary union improves liquidity, market depth and the capacity for infrastructure projects such as the digital euro. He also warned that Bulgaria must pursue governance reforms, prudent fiscal policy and macro‑prudential safeguards to manage faster growth and inflation risks.
Christine Lagarde: Preparing for Geoeconomic Fragmentation
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that deepening supply‑chain interdependence now poses a security risk, prompting Europe to shift toward strategic autonomy. She outlined three policy levers—diversification, indispensability and independence—to reduce reliance on distant suppliers, especially in electronics, chemicals...
Indian Veg Oil Buyers Await Clarity on US Trade Deal
Indian vegetable‑oil importers are waiting for concrete details on the pending U.S.–India trade pact that could lower tariffs on U.S. soybean oil. The framework hints at a 0‑15% duty cut and a tariff‑rate quota of roughly 200,000‑250,000 tonnes, but exact...
India’s Next Big Power Move Is Set to Unfold in the Bay of Bengal
India’s National Green Tribunal has approved the Rs 90,000‑crore Great Nicobar mega‑infrastructure project, clearing the way for a new International Container Transshipment Port at Galethea Bay. The first phase, slated for 2028, will handle over 4 million TEUs annually, with full capacity...
Olaf Sleijpen: Repairing the Vending Machine - How the Savings and Investment Union Is Key to Europe's Future
Olaf Sleijpen, governor of De Nederlandsche Bank, highlighted Europe’s €10 trillion of low‑yield household deposits and the need to channel them into productive capital markets through the Savings and Investment Union. He warned that fragmented insolvency regimes and national rules act...
Will Indonesia’s US$762 Million Ramadan Stimulus Be a ‘Positive’ Boost for the Economy?
Indonesia has unveiled a US$762 million, 12.83 trillion‑rupiah stimulus aimed at bolstering Ramadan consumption. The package includes transport fare discounts of up to 30%, full‑fare ferry rides, and food parcels for low‑income families. Officials hope the measures will sustain mobility and purchasing...
Piero Cipollone: The Digital Euro - Strengthening Europe's Payments Ecosystem
In a speech in Nicosia, ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone presented the digital euro as a cornerstone for Europe’s payment autonomy, security and competitiveness. He emphasized the ECB’s readiness to issue retail central‑bank digital money while maintaining wholesale settlement...
Philip N Jefferson: Economic Outlook and Supply-Side (Dis)inflation Dynamics
Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said he is cautiously optimistic about the U.S. economy, noting a 4.4% annualized GDP surge in Q3 2025 and a modest 2.2% growth outlook for 2026. The labor market appears balanced with unemployment hovering near 4.4%...
Youth Unemployment at 11-Year High with 16% Out of Work
Youth unemployment in the UK surged to 16.1% in the October‑December 2025 quarter, the highest level since 2014 and now above the EU average of 14.9%. Overall unemployment rose to 5.2%, a five‑year peak, while pay‑rolled jobs slipped by 6,000,...
Kazuyuki Masu: Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
Kazuyuki Masu, a Bank of Japan policy board member, highlighted that U.S. auto tariffs rose to 12.5% in 2025, pressuring Japanese car exporters. He noted that the yen’s depreciation has partially offset the earnings hit for automakers. Masu added that...
Ida Wolden Bache: Economic Perspectives
Ida Wolden Bache, governor of Norges Bank, delivered her annual address on 12 February 2026, warning that geopolitical power plays and rapid AI advances are reshaping the economic landscape. She cited Mark Carney’s view that economic integration is being used...
Record Year for Seaborne Grains with Freight Boost Into 2026
Seaborne agricultural trade set a new high in 2025, moving 716.5 million tonnes – a modest 1% year‑on‑year gain that nonetheless broke the previous record. After a 6% slump in the first half, volumes rebounded 7% in the second half, lifting...
Cash Craze: Currency in Circulation Touches Record Rs 40 Lakh Crore
India's currency in circulation reached a record Rs 40 lakh crore in January 2026, up 11.1% year‑on‑year, while the cash‑to‑GDP ratio slipped to about 11.2%, down from a pandemic peak of 14.4%. Over the past decade, cash holdings have risen from Rs 11.8 lakh crore in...
Overseas and E-Commerce Payments to Be Made Easier in Ethiopia
The National Bank of Ethiopia announced sweeping foreign‑exchange reforms, letting exporters retain 100% of their foreign‑currency earnings in designated accounts and permitting banks to issue payment cards linked to those accounts. The minimum $100 requirement for foreign‑exchange savings accounts has...
Trump’s New Arms Rules Will Hit Southeast Asia
President Trump issued an executive order establishing an “America First” arms export strategy that rewards allies who invest in self‑defense, occupy critical geography, or contribute to U.S. economic security. The rubric pushes the Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia toward priority status...
BofA Survey Flags Dollar Bearish Bets at over a Decade High. Here's What It Means for Bitcoin
Bank of America’s February survey shows investor exposure to the U.S. dollar is at its most bearish since early 2012, marking a record underweight stance. Historically, a weaker dollar has acted as a bullish tailwind for bitcoin, but since early...
Report: America’s $38 Trillion Debt Demands Bipartisan Action
A new report from the Committee for Economic Development warns that the United States’ national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, matching the size of the economy and rising rapidly. The report urges Congress to create a bipartisan fiscal commission to devise...
Europe’s Next War
Europe faces heightened risk of a broader NATO‑Russia confrontation as the Ukraine war drags on. Over the past four years, NATO allies have poured hundreds of billions of dollars in military, economic, and humanitarian aid into Ukraine, while European nations...
The Dream Palace of the West
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb warns that the West’s last chance to shape a cooperative world order hinges on listening to the global South. He argues that Western sanctions on Russia and confrontational policies toward China alienate billions, eroding the West’s moral...
Walmart’s Sam’s Club Cracks China Market Formula Even as Foreign Retailers Shut Shop
Walmart‑owned Sam’s Club is expanding in China by deepening localisation, offering China‑specific products such as ginseng, copper‑gourd ornaments, and right‑sized private‑label packs. The chain opened ten new stores in 2025, bringing its footprint to 63 locations and shifting focus to...
JICA Mulls Resuming ODA Loans to Pakistan After Decadelong Hiatus
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is weighing a restart of official development assistance (ODA) loans to Pakistan after a ten‑year hiatus. The move reflects improving macro‑economic indicators, including steadier growth and reduced fiscal stress. JICA’s decision will be coordinated with...
Real vs Technical Inflation: Which Should Guide Monetary Policy in Nigeria?
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics rebased its Consumer Price Index to a 2024 base year, pulling headline inflation down from 24.48% in January 2025 to 15.15% by December 2025. Critics argue the technical decline masks persistent real inflation, with food prices still...
What Nigeria’s Economy Optimises for — Without Admitting It
Nigeria’s economy is structured to reward navigating bureaucratic friction rather than boosting productivity, efficiency, or innovation. World Bank data shows firms spend over 40% more time on regulations than the regional average, creating a thriving informal ecosystem of brokers, fixers...
Uganda’s Ports Crippled by Encroachment and Neglect
Uganda’s eight lake ports, managed by state‑owned Uganda Railways Corporation, are crippled by illegal land encroachments, military occupations, and climate‑related water level shifts. Key facilities such as Port Bell and Lambu Port face stalled redevelopment despite an African Development Bank...
India's Textile and Apparel Exports Down by 3.75% in January, Outlook Improves Now with India US Interim Deal
India's textile and apparel exports fell 3.75% in January 2026, dropping to $3.27 billion from $3.40 billion a year earlier, primarily due to U.S. tariffs that remained until February 7. Cotton yarn, fabrics and handloom products declined over 4%, while carpet and jute...
Stocks to Buy in 2026 for Long Term: IGL, Siemens Energy Among 5 Stocks that Could Give 10-40% Return
Brokerage houses have highlighted five Indian equities that could deliver 10‑40% returns by 2026. Motilal Oswal sees Indraprastha Gas (IGL) rising 41% to ₹235 and Siemens Energy up 31% to ₹3,600. Citi maintains a Buy on Lupin with a 15% upside,...
US Dollar Positioning Hits Record Underweight in Bank of America Survey
Bank of America’s FX sentiment survey shows net US dollar exposure at a record underweight, the most negative level since the survey began in January 2012. Short positions have surged to extreme levels, surpassing the lows recorded in April 2023....
Market Quote of the Day by Sir John Templeton | “The Time of Maximum Pessimism Is the Best Time to...
Sir John Templeton’s adage that the best buying opportunities arise at peak pessimism is highlighted as a timeless investing principle. The article notes that widespread fear compresses valuations, allowing strong companies to be bought at discounts, while emphasizing the need...
BOJ Likely to Raise Rates 25bp April, Former Board Member Says. Gradual Move Toward 1.25%
Former Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi says the central bank is most likely to raise rates in April rather than March, waiting for clearer wage and inflation data. The BOJ’s December hike to 0.75% marked the first move...
Indonesia Readies 1,000 Soldiers for Potential Deployment to Gaza in April
Indonesia may deploy 1,000 troops to Gaza as early as April, part of a UN‑mandated International Stabilization Force that could expand to 8,000 soldiers by June. The decision rests with President Prabowo Subianto, who is also set to attend President...
China Hits Renewable Milestone, But Coal Isn’t Going Anywhere
China’s operating power capacity from non‑fossil sources surpassed fossil‑fuel capacity for the first time, reaching 52 % of the total in February 2026. The achievement reflects a decade of aggressive solar and wind deployment, backed by the world’s largest clean‑energy supply chain....
EU Weighs Sanctions on Georgia’s Kulevi Port over Suspected Russian Oil Links
The European Union is considering adding Georgia’s Black Sea port of Kulevi to its 20th sanctions package, accusing it of facilitating Russian crude shipments that fund the war in Ukraine. The draft targets four ports, marking the bloc’s first move...
ICYMI: China to Remove Tariffs on Imports From 53 African Nations From May 1
China will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations starting May 1, 2026, expanding the preferential regime beyond the continent’s least‑developed economies. The zero‑tariff policy applies to every African country that maintains diplomatic ties with Beijing and is paired with a...
Soft Landing Looks More Plausible, but the Fed Isn’t Ready to Call It Done.
U.S. macro data are aligning for a potential soft landing, with core CPI easing to 2.5% year‑over‑year and unemployment slipping to 4.3% in January. While inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, the Fed’s preferred gauge remains near...
Asia Stocks Seen Muted on Holiday Trade, Oil Gains: Markets Wrap
Asian equities opened muted on Tuesday as holiday‑thin trading reduced volumes across the region. Futures indicated a slight rise for Australia and a modest dip for Japan, while the Euro Stoxx 600 remained flat. The yen slipped to around 153 per...
Suriname's Oil Boom Faces Economic Headwinds Despite Major Discovery
Suriname’s GranMorgu project, a $10.5 billion offshore development by TotalEnergies and APA, targets 760 million barrels and is projected to generate $26 billion in revenue. The field is slated for commissioning in 2028, roughly twice the timeline Guyana achieved for its Stabroek Block....
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/ISS-DRC-peace-mission.jpg)
CYRIL’S ARMY: Ramaphosa’s Decision to Deploy the SANDF Is Deeply Flawed. Here’s Why
President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the withdrawal of roughly 700 South African soldiers from the MONUSCO mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ending a 27‑year peace‑keeping presence. He simultaneously ordered the South African National Defence Force to support the police...
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/GettyImages-1952436000.jpg)
MONETARY POLICY: Sarb Proposes Major Reform — Ditching Prime Lending Rate for Repo Rate
The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) has released a consultation paper proposing to scrap the prime lending rate (PLR) and use the repo rate, known as the SARB policy rate (SPR), as the benchmark for loan pricing. The PLR currently...
Iran Launches Navy Drills To 'Control' Strait of Hormuz
On February 16, 2026, Iran announced a series of naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, framing them as a move to “control” the strategic waterway. The drills follow the U.S. Navy’s decision to station a second aircraft carrier in...
Is Canada Turning Into a Chinese Proxy?
Canada announced a multi‑billion‑dollar shift to fund domestic defense manufacturing, moving away from traditional purchases from U.S. defense firms. The policy signals a growing rift in the historically close Canada‑U.S. security partnership. Officials framed the move as a boost for...
Bitcoin No Longer Acting Like “Digital Gold” Because Its Correlation with Physical Gold, USD Collapsed
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and the U.S. dollar has collapsed to near zero, while its link to the Nasdaq 100 has risen to +0.35‑0.6 in 2025‑early 2026. The asset now behaves more like a high‑beta tech risk factor than the...
Russia Rattled by America’s Nuclear Move in Armenia
The United States and Armenia signed a nuclear cooperation agreement on February 9, committing to American modular reactor technology for Armenia's next plant. Moscow responded with a public backlash, accusing the U.S. of untested designs and offering lucrative financial and infrastructure...
Unemployment Rate up a Tad to 5% in January, Higher Rise for Females
India’s unemployment rate ticked up to 5 % in January, a modest rise from 4.8 % in December. The increase was driven primarily by a sharper jump in female joblessness, which reached 5.6 % versus 4.8 % for men. Urban unemployment climbed to 7 %...
Govt Plans ‘Champion CPSEs’ for Viksit Bharat by 2047, NITI Aayog Roadmap Soon
India is preparing a roadmap to create ‘champion’ central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) that will drive economic growth and technological advancement toward a developed nation status by 2047. The plan, drafted by NITI Aayog in coordination with the finance ministry,...
Ireland Leads Charge Against Biggest EU Economies Forming Elite Club
Ireland’s finance minister warned that the newly‑formed “E6” club of Europe’s six biggest economies could sideline smaller states as it pushes ahead on financial‑market integration, euro promotion and defence spending. The E6 – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and...
Hungary Seeks Croatian Help As Russian Oil Flows Via Ukraine Halted
Hungary and Slovakia have formally asked Croatia to permit Russian crude to flow through the Adria pipeline after the Ukrainian segment of the Druzhba pipeline was shut down following Russian strikes. The two countries cite an EU sanctions exemption that...
UK Bank Bosses Plan to Set up Visa and Mastercard Alternative Amid Trump Fears
UK bank leaders are convening to launch a sovereign payments network, DeliveryCo, as an alternative to Visa and Mastercard. The initiative, backed by City funders and the Bank of England, aims to mitigate risks from potential US political actions, such...
State Firms Told to Avoid Borrowing when Investing
Thailand's finance ministry has instructed state‑owned enterprises to fund new investments primarily from internal revenues, limiting reliance on borrowing that is classified as public debt. The policy follows a backdrop where public debt stands at 66.1% of GDP, close to...
Economy Has 'Left ICU', Says Finance Chief
Thailand’s economy posted a surprising 2.5% GDP expansion in Q4 2025, outpacing the finance ministry’s 1.8% forecast and the NESDC’s 0.3% estimate. The stronger performance lifted full‑year 2025 growth to 2.4%, above the 2% target, and the finance chief now aims...
'We Do Not Do Illegal Things': Inside a U.S.-sanctioned Stablecoin Issuer's Race to Build a Crypto Giant
A7A5, a Kyrgyzstan‑incorporated ruble‑pegged stablecoin, added roughly $90 billion to its circulating supply last year, outpacing USDT and USDC. The issuer’s affiliates and reserve‑bank partner are listed on the U.S. sanctions list, yet the firm claims full KYC/AML compliance and positions...