The SBA's New Credit Restrictions Are a Disaster for Small Businesses
The Small Business Administration has announced a rule that excludes permanent‑resident (green‑card) holders from eligibility for SBA 7(a) and 504 loans. The change eliminates a primary source of affordable credit for many immigrant‑owned small businesses, especially in states with large non‑citizen populations. Lenders that rely on SBA guarantees will likely tighten standards, threatening job creation and tax revenue. The author argues the policy contradicts decades of federal practice and could push vulnerable firms toward bankruptcy.
Is Central Asia Still Russia’s Backyard?
Russian commentators continue to label Central Asia as a Russian sphere of influence, but the region is asserting its independence. Over the past 35 years, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have leveraged their abundant critical minerals and transit corridors...
Box Carriers Set New Surcharges Amid Winter Headwinds
The episode examines how severe winter weather across Europe is forcing major box carriers to impose new emergency surcharges, with CMA CGM adding $100 per container for shipments from North Europe to India and Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd issuing similar cost warnings....
New Chief Economic Advisor to the Treasury Appointed
Professor Brian Bell has been appointed as the Treasury’s chief economic advisor, taking up the post on 9 March. He will serve as the principal adviser to Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister on macro‑economics and fiscal policy, overseeing the department’s...
The Year of the Horse, but Good Luck Finding One with Wheels
The episode examines how the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, officially Feb 17‑23 2026, creates a six‑to‑eight‑week disruption to China’s inland trucking network, with capacity draining from mid‑January and only slowly returning by early March. It highlights the ripple effects on ocean...
European Pulp Prices Climb Amid Ongoing BEK and NBSK Negotiations
European pulp markets are seeing divergent trends as bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) prices jumped $120 per tonne for January, while northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) only posted modest gains. The BEK surge is driven by supply constraints from Iberian strikes,...
High-Spending Carriers Still Have an Appetite for Larger Box Ships
The episode examines the robust demand for larger container ships, noting the orderbook has reached a 15‑year high at roughly 36% of the active fleet. Maersk Line is narrowing the gap with MSC by ordering eight 18,600 TEU LNG dual‑fuel vessels...
USD/CAD: Sideways Range with Tariff Risks – Rabobank
Rabobank analysts Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence project the USD/CAD pair to remain largely sideways throughout 2026, confined to a 1.36‑1.41 band. The outlook is driven by persistent US‑Canada trade tensions, a looming USMCA review, and a weakening U.S. dollar...
Polish Disinflation Continues Despite Upside Surprise in January CPI
Poland’s January flash CPI showed headline inflation at 2.2% YoY, modestly above the 1.9% consensus but still under the NBP’s 2.5% ± 1‑point target. The decline was driven by a 7.1% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices held steady at 2.4%...
Australia Should Have CBAM on some Commodities: Review
Australia’s latest carbon leakage review recommends a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), beginning with cement and clinker imports and potentially expanding to hydrogen, steel, ammonia and related products. The review, led by ANU professor Frank Jotzo, evaluated 75 trade‑exposed commodities...
BNP Election Win Could Reshape Bangladesh's Energy Mix
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party secured a decisive parliamentary majority, clearing the path for a sweeping overhaul of the nation’s energy strategy. Its manifesto pledges to lift renewable power to 20% of the mix by 2030, a dramatic rise from today’s...
Travel Takes the Lead
Visa’s latest Spending Momentum Index shows travel as the fastest‑growing consumer category in Asia‑Pacific, expanding about 2.5 times faster than overall spend in 2025. Cross‑border card use surged as tourists adopted digital wallets, while affluent consumers generated roughly three‑quarters of...
Rupee Closes Nearly Flat, Modest Depreciation Bias Lingers
India’s rupee ended Friday essentially unchanged, closing at 90.6350 per dollar, a slight dip from the prior session. The currency faced pressure from weak domestic equities, elevated interbank dollar demand, and maturing non‑deliverable forward contracts, while the Reserve Bank of...
Wieslander Published in Euractiv
In a Euractiv op‑ed, Anna Wieslander and Rachel Ellehuus of RUSI argue Europe must build a NATO led by Europeans. They warn waiting for a new U.S. administration would waste critical time. The authors propose an action‑oriented process focusing on...
We’re Trimming Our 2026 Romania Growth Forecast After a Bumpy End to 2025
Romania’s economy entered recession in early 2024 and posted a 1.9% quarterly contraction in Q4 2025, the steepest drop since 2012. Revised data also turned Q1 2025 growth negative, prompting analysts to slash the 2026 GDP outlook from 1.4% to 0.6%. The...
‘Beyond a Lithium-Only Future’: How US Trade Rules Could Accelerate BESS Diversification
US trade policy changes – FEOC restrictions and a 25% Section 301 tariff on Chinese‑origin battery energy storage systems (BESS) – took effect on 1 January, tightening cost and compliance pressures. While Chinese lithium‑ion BESS remain marginally cheaper on equipment‑only pricing, developers...
Shanghai’s Tourism Comeback: 9.36 Million Visitors Return as Tokyo, Seoul Rivalry and US Geopolitics Reshape Asia Travel
Shanghai welcomed 9.36 million inbound visitors in 2025, a 39.6% year‑over‑year increase, marking a robust tourism rebound. Growth was driven by diversified source markets, notably South Korea, Russia and Southeast Asia, and by improved visa policies and airline connectivity that doubled...
ECB Publishes Consolidated Banking Data for End-September 2025
The European Central Bank released its consolidated banking data for end‑September 2025, covering 336 banking groups and 2,289 stand‑alone credit institutions across the EU‑27. Total assets rose 0.95 % to €33.44 trillion, while the non‑performing loan ratio edged up to 1.97 %. Return on...
Cameroon Clamps Down on Shadow Fleet as Flag Purge Begins
Cameroon’s ship registry, now Africa’s third‑largest, surged 126% in the past year, largely due to Russian‑linked vessels adopting its flag. The fleet’s average age has risen to 32.7 years, prompting safety concerns after several high‑profile incidents. Under pressure from the EU...
Poland’s Economy Expanded by 4%YoY in the Final Quarter of 2025
Poland’s economy posted a 4.0% year‑on‑year increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, outpacing the 3.8% growth recorded in Q3. Quarterly expansion accelerated to 1.0% from 0.9% in the prior period, driven primarily by a surge in private consumption that...
Turkey’s Current Account Deficit Remains on a Widening Track
Turkey posted a December current‑account deficit of $7.3 bn, well above the $5.3 bn forecast, pushing the 12‑month rolling deficit to $25.2 bn (about 1.8 % of GDP). The gap widened mainly because the trade balance slipped to a $‑7.4 bn deficit and primary‑income balances...
Splash Wrap: The Week in Shipping in 233 Words
The Pentagon intercepted a tanker suspected of moving Venezuelan oil, underscoring Washington’s aggressive stance on illicit exports. Vanuatu warned users about a fake registry website, while Cameroon suspended new shadow‑fleet registrations and began deregistering existing vessels. In the tech arena,...
Both the Number of New Workforce and Jobs Stagnant in Korea, Reports Indicate
South Korea faces a looming labor shortage as its economically active population is projected to grow only 0.46% by 2034, creating a gap of roughly 1.22 million workers. Despite the demand for an additional 54,000 workers per year through 2029 and...
Africa's GDP Race Tightens as Economic Interdependence Deepens
Africa’s five largest economies are now separated by razor‑thin margins, with South Africa’s $401.6 bn GDP barely outpacing Egypt’s $399.5 bn. Nigeria remains third at $334.3 bn but its ranking is highly sensitive to exchange‑rate swings. Algeria and Morocco round out the top...
Rates Spark: Dutch Pension Funds May Prepare Early for 2027 Transitions
Almost €1 trillion of Dutch pension assets are slated to transition by 2027, but early hedge rebalancing has already begun. Smaller funds moved interest‑rate hedges in December 2025, while larger players like PMT and PFZW are timing their flows for the first...
China Merchants to Restart Wuhan Qingshan Shipyard
China Merchants Shipbuilding Industry Group announced the full restart of its long‑dormant Wuhan Qingshan shipyard in 2026, reviving a facility that ceased new‑building in 2018. The 113‑hectare river‑front yard, equipped with a 2,200‑metre wharf, will focus on small and medium‑sized...
Reeves Urged to Reassure MPs over Public Finances Amid £6bn-a-Year Send Costs
Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to reassure MPs as the UK’s special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) programme costs rise to about £6 billion a year. The Office for Budget Responsibility warns that an £18 billion backlog could erode the fiscal surplus...
Maran Dry Returns to Newbuilds with Capesize Order at Hengli
Maran Dry, the bulk carrier arm of Angelicoussis Shipping, has placed an order for four new capesize vessels at Hengli Heavy Industry’s Dalian yard, with options that could expand the deal to six ships. This marks the company’s first new‑build...
Singaporeans to Get Nearly $400 in Vouchers, up to $316 in Cash as Cost-of-Living Support
Singapore's 2026 budget introduces a Cost‑of‑Living Special Payment, granting eligible adults up to S$400 cash and providing every household with S$500 in Community Development Council vouchers. The cash payout targets citizens earning up to S$100,000 and owning no more than...
Asia Week Ahead: Key Growth Data From Japan
Japan is set to publish key macro data next week, including Q4 2025 GDP, export figures, and inflation. Analysts forecast a modest 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter GDP rebound after a 0.6% contraction, driven by recovering construction and strong semiconductor exports. Inflation is expected...
Oceanbird Lands First Commercial Order
Oceanbird, the Alfa Laval–Wallenius joint venture, announced its first commercial sale, delivering two Wing 560 wing sails for retrofit in Europe slated for early 2027. The order fills the initial production slots, shifting Oceanbird from prototype demonstrations to a commercial rollout. The...
Singapore Mulls Keeping Carbon Tax at Low End of Target
Singapore’s finance minister said the city‑state may keep its carbon tax near the low end of the $50‑80 per tonne range slated for 2030, after noting a slowdown in global climate momentum. The current levy sits at S$45 (~$35.60) per tonne, already...
IMO Ramps Up Campaign to Close Flag State "Enforcement Gap"
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has launched a two‑year campaign to narrow the enforcement gap that allows a shadow fleet of sanctions‑busting tankers to operate under weak flag‑state oversight. By leveraging its Member State Audit Scheme (IMSAS), the agency will...
The Panama Canal and The U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council Sign MoU
The Panama Canal and the U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council (USGBC) signed a Memorandum of Understanding to boost the flow of U.S. agricultural exports through the canal. The agreement focuses on improving efficiency, reliability and sustainability of grain shipments, with...
The Industry Blind Spot that Lets Crew Suffering Escalate
Shipping consultant Frank Coles warns that seafarers face systemic abuse hidden by the industry’s self‑regulation. Crew members endure long contracts, limited shore leave, and mental‑health strain while owners chase cheap labor across weak‑law jurisdictions. Regulatory bodies draft safety rules but...
CNOOC Targets 40% Offshore Wind Capacity Ramp up in 2026
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced a 40% increase in offshore wind capacity for 2026, targeting 3.5 GW of installed power. The expansion, executed with turbine maker Ming Yang Smart Energy, will roll out advanced turbines across southern provinces. Falling costs...
Malaysia’s Population Growth Slows to 0.6% in Q4 2025
Malaysia’s fourth‑quarter 2025 demographic report shows population growth decelerating to 0.6%, reaching 34.3 million. Live births fell 5.4% while the elderly share rose to 8.0%, indicating an ageing trend. Labour demand grew 1.8% to 9.21 million jobs, the strongest since Q1 2024, with...
Appointment to the Monetary Policy Board
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that Professor Bruce Preston has been appointed to the Monetary Policy Board, effective immediately. Preston brings a distinguished academic record and extensive experience in public‑policy economics. Governor Michele Bullock also thanked outgoing board member...
Exim Bank Offers B50bn Lifeline to Ailing Exporters
The Export‑Import Bank of Thailand unveiled a 50‑billion‑baht working‑capital facility to shore up exporters’ liquidity amid heightened global volatility. President Charat Rattanaboonniti said the bank will also provide export and foreign‑exchange insurance while urging firms to hedge currency risk with...
US Aims to Process Critical Minerals in Brazil
The United States is actively negotiating with Brazil to develop processing capacity for heavy rare earths, leveraging financing from the Development Finance Corporation. Recent DFC investments have backed the Serra Verde and Aclara rare‑earth projects, which together aim to boost...
James Zimmerman on How the US and China Can Make 2026 a ‘Year of Vision’
James Zimmerman has resumed his role as chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, bringing nearly three decades of on‑the‑ground experience. He argues that the anticipated Trump‑Xi meetings in 2026 present a rare chance to pivot bilateral relations...
Mexican Ships Deliver Food and Supplies to Cuba as Island Faces U.S. Fuel Supply Crackdown
Mexico dispatched two flag‑registered vessels to Havana, delivering over 814 tons of food and essential supplies amid a U.S. crackdown on oil shipments to the island. The aid, loaded in Veracruz, includes dairy, meat, grains, canned fish and hygiene items, arriving...
CK Hutchison Escalates Legal Battle Over Panama Ports Ruling
CK Hutchison Holdings has invoked a bilateral investment treaty as Panama’s Supreme Court moves to deem the 1997 law that underpins its Balboa and Cristóbal terminal concessions unconstitutional. The pending ruling threatens to make the ports’ operations illegal, prompting the...
Ecommerce Trends: How Retailers Say They View Tariffs in 2026
In 2025 U.S. tariffs pushed up prices for online retailers, but by 2026 companies such as Costco and Wayfair are signalling cautious confidence that the shock has faded. The IMF now projects stronger global growth for 2025‑26, while a pending...
IEA Lowers 2026 Oil Demand Forecast on Economic Uncertainty, Higher Prices
The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate amid heightened economic uncertainty and rising crude prices. Demand gains will come entirely from non‑OECD economies, with...
Chinese Zinc and Lead Smelters Rely on Byproducts in 2026
Chinese zinc and lead smelters are increasingly dependent on by‑product revenues as tight imported concentrate supplies compress primary treatment charge margins. Silver, sulfuric acid, copper and gold now provide critical income streams, offsetting low zinc and lead TCs projected for...
Will Bonds Outperform Stocks in 2026? Why the Timing Might Be Right To Double Down on Bonds.
Bond ETFs are poised to challenge equity returns in 2026 as central banks move from aggressive tightening to policy normalization. The Invesco Equal Weight 0‑30 Year Treasury ETF (GOVI) offers a diversified, lower‑volatility alternative to the long‑duration iShares 20+ Year...
MacroVoices #519 Alex Gurevich: The Next Perfect Trade
Alex Gurevich joins Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna on MacroVoices to outline his outlook for fixed‑income markets and the broader macro environment. He argues that the Federal Reserve will keep a restrictive policy stance into 2026, keeping inflation pressures in...
Commerce Releases Final AD/CVD Amounts in Battery Anode Case
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued final antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) rates for Chinese active anode material (AAM). AD margins remain at 93.5% for major exporters and 102.72% for others, while CVD rates settle around 66.86% for most...
PQ: Global Ad Spend Will Climb 8.8%, Composite Rises Three-Tenths Of A Point
PQ Media’s 2026 Global Advertising & Marketing Spending Forecast projects worldwide ad spend to climb 8.8% and total marketing spend to rise 9.8% this year. The new data have been incorporated into MediaPost’s composite forecast, lifting the average industry growth...