China Faces Capital Shortage, World's Least Crowded Trade
"If you look at the hard numbers, China is capital starved right now—it's the least crowded trade in the world." - Ed Grefenstette (EP.488) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
From 54% Analyst Returns to World's Largest Hedge Fund
This top II-ranked PC sell-side analyst made +54% per year from 1995–1999 running $15B … then founded a hedge fund that briefly became the largest in the world.
NVDA Drops as Hedge Funds Pre‑bought Strong Quarter
$NVDA down hard because every Hedge Fund on the planet knew the quarter was going to be great and they bought it ahead of that
One River's LGT Quant Purchase Increases Assets by One‑Third
One River is buying the quant arm of LGT Capital Partners, a deal that will boost the hedge fund’s assets by roughly a third https://t.co/KuxkGui39M
Inside Hedge Funds' Secret Method for Detecting Market Regimes
The secret hedge funds use to detect market regimes... A 37 page PDF reveals everything:
Avoid Shifting From Public to Private During Market Crashes
"If there is a violent drop in public equity prices, we cannot be in a position where we're taking money out of the public book and sliding it into the private book. That's the ultimate sin of our job." - Sean...
13F Filers Dumped Bitcoin ETFs, Selling ~25k BTC
What did 13F filers do with the Bitcoin ETFs in Q4?? In what should not be much of a surprise -- they were sellers. Advisors and Hedge Funds (the two largest holder categories) were the biggest sellers. Overall 13F Filers sold...
Most Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Shorting the Dollar
Almost all Hedge Fund types are exposed to Short Dollar. Some are massively Short. *Will they all be right? https://t.co/Uwzu1CzIdx
Earn When Consensus Loses: +17bps Long/Short Gain
The Fam was flat in the Long Only and +17bps in the Long/Short Book today We like days like this. Save and make money when the consensus crowd is losing theirs https://t.co/QFJjbKycEg
Extreme Net Long Positions Signal Impending Bitcoin Move
A fascinating chart. Non-commercial traders, primarilly hedge funds and institutions, are currently at one of their most extreme net long positions in #Bitcoin in the entire dataset. The red line has plunged deeply negative, meaning the "net short position" is...
Invest $1k with Simons, Earn $2.2B After Fees
If you gave Jim Simons $1,000 in 1988 and never touched it, you'd have $4 billion after 30 years—before fees. After Simons takes his $1.76 billion cut, you’re still left with $2.24 billion.
Weaker Dollar Spurs Record Foreign Inflows
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
Cooling Volatility Triggers Machine Re‑Leverage, Expect Upward Grind
Volatility is cooling. 30D realized volatility (yellow line) just rolled over and is now below 90D (blue line). When short-term vol drops, the machines re-lever. Vol control funds start buying. Right now, the signal says grind higher until proven otherwise.
New Friday Morning Portfolio Adjustments Unveiled
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: February 20, 2026 - Portfolio Enrichment..." A few Friday A.M. portfolio adjustments... via The Lyons Share https://t.co/VbzlIct5Nc https://t.co/DZs0p0H2mR
Hedge Funds Slash US Equity Leverage, Yet Remain Highly Exposed
From GS Prime trading desk on Flows, via Bbrg: “Against a more challenging performance backdrop and tougher technicals, hedge funds have turned more defensive and net sold US equities MTD at the fastest pace since March 25,” the team led by...
McGough’s CVNA Sell Call Beats CNBC’s Coverage
Great SELL call by McGough @HedgeyeRetail on $CVNA that CNBC failed, once again, to cover
Deem Global Soft‑Closes $3B, Capacity Turns Scarce
Another hedge fund shutting to new cash just as investors ready to allocate more. Asfandyar Nadeem’s Deem Global is soft-closing at $3billion after a strong 2025 and a sharp start to 2026. capacity is becoming a scarce resource. https://t.co/3TAvGB3pmk
From $4B Deal
He made $4B for his old firm and $900M for himself. Then sued to break a noncompete—and launched a hedge fund that gained 20% in year one.
Stay Cautious on Retail, Long Amazon, Short Walmart, Costco
(In contrast to the bullish view expressed yesterday on the Fin TV show - see SLINK's confident consumer outlook on @cnbc), we remain cautious on the consumer. This week we put on a three way pairs trade - long $AMZN/Short $COST...
Steve Cohen's Hedge Fund Delivers $3.4B Payday, 2025 Top
Mets owner Steve Cohen got a $3.4 billion payday from his hedge fund last year. Here are the top earners in 2025: https://t.co/ZRuqldhcBZ https://t.co/p6eqszYRZM
Quant Hedge Fund Alpha Closes After 25 Years
A $2 billion quantitative hedge fund that recently added “Alpha” to its name, is calling it quits after three consecutive years of losses and roughly 25-year run https://t.co/69PJrwEni7
Retail Shorts Ahead as High‑Income Spending Slips
The show panelists (don't be shocked, they are bullish) love retail/consumer stocks - we shorted $COST and $WMT in the last 24 hours. We are looking for more consumer shorts. We believe lower home and stock prices will take away from the...
Record Hedge Fund Bet on Magnificent 7 Risks Collapse
⚠️Almost everybody is piling into the SAME TRADE: Hedge fund net allocation to Magnificent 7 stocks is up to a RECORD 22%. This is more than DOUBLE the level seen in 2022. At the same time, these stocks remain among the most popular...
AI Workflow Replaces WhaleWisdom for Fund Portfolio Tracking
With 13Fs for Q4 out, retweeting this AI workflow (which I quite like). I will be building a stack of a couple dozen funds I follow to get a quick look at their portfolios: new additions, size ups/downs and portfolio...
Pentwater Leads Merger Arbitrage with $10.6 B Book
Largest merger arbitrage books (by 13-F*) Pentwater: $10.6 billion HBK: $8.1 billion Millennium: $7.8 billion Balyasny: $5.3 billion Fidelity: $4.4 billion Citadel: $2.9 billion Qube: $2.7 billion AQR: $2.4 billion Glazer: $2.3 billion Magnetar: $2.1 billion h/t Cantor
Cooling Volatility Triggers Vol‑Control Funds to Add Equity
Vol Control funds are starting to re-engage. When realized vol cools, vol-control strategies mechanically add equity exposure. Vol ↓ → Positioning ↑ → Fuel for price. Still too early, but if realized volatility continues to cool off, this turns into incremental buy pressure...
Our Portfolios Stay Calm as Rivals Tumble
CHART OF THE DAY: Our Portfolios Are Experiencing Lower Volatility While The Competitors Are Crashing https://t.co/8ToxLIPXph via @hedgeye
SKEW Below 140 Signals Institutional Hedge Unwind
SKEW just closed below 140. Falling $SKEW = institutions unwinding tail-risk hedges (OTM puts get cheaper) and/or quietly reducing equity exposure. Past cycles: Sustained declines often marked distribution phases — rallies fade as protection demand evaporates and complacency builds. If it...
Balance Reversion and Momentum: Mix Market-Making with Market-Taking
"You have market-making strategies or market-taking strategies. You want to balance across them because market-making strategies tend to be reversion and market-taking strategies tend to be momentum." - Bobby Jain (EP.497) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
2025 Profitability Snapshot: Sector Returns & Excess Gains
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
Investors Shift From S&P 500 to Alternatives, Gains Accelerate
Rotation away from S&P500 (flat on the year) into other assets like foreign stocks, US value, etc up 10-15% seems to be accelerating...
Seeking Causes Behind Hedge Funds' Rising Leverage Beyond
Are there any other explanations for the multi-year vertical ascent in hedge fund gross leverage aside from a reduction in front end interest rates / funding costs? https://t.co/WkIt1xAlmd
Investors Bet on Oil Amid Growing Supply Threats
Oil investors bullish on proliferating supply threats Investors are increasingly bullish about the outlook for oil prices as potential risks to production and tanker traffic multiply - including threats of U.S. military action against Iran and stricter sanctions enforcement. Hedge funds and...
Bobby Jain Launches $6B Multi‑strat Amid Portfolio Shift
Hedge fund portfolios are being shaped by the shift from banks, multi-manager scale, and public/private convergence. Bobby Jain (CEO/CIO, Jain Global) on launching a $6B multi-strat, talent & risk management, and portfolio construction. https://t.co/BfZsVcl2vY With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Baillie Gifford Defends CoStar Amid Questionable 5‑year Returns
https://t.co/5Dz4e0JITs Baillie Gifford backs CoStar in activist battle Perhaps unnamed Baillie Gifford rep should look at the 5 year chart. Hard to see “repeatedly demonstrated” value creation over past 5 years. Happy to take your call so you can...
Smart Money Exits IBIT, Likely Profiting From MSTR Shorts
13F nonsense Look at all these sophisticated investors dumping $IBIT in Q4. Are they just dumb noobs to crypto with paper hands or perhaps they were unwinding short $MSTR long IBIT trades. And taking massive profits. https://t.co/6VVrnNnB6Z
Software Short‑squeeze Looms as Consumer Staples Pull Back
Whose ready for the short-squeeze in software over the next week because the 26 year-old analysts at the multi-platform funds convinced their PM's to go max short? Then we'll get the Consumer Staples pullback at the same time, when all the...
Tiger Cub Founder Built $6B, 15% Returns, Then Quit
This Tiger Cub hedge fund founder built a $6B hedge fund, delivered 15%+ returns for over 20 years, and then walked away.