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EMAIL DIGESTS
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
In this episode, the Trepp Wire team analyzes how a sudden energy shock—driven by the Iran‑Saudi conflict—has pushed oil above $100, reigniting inflation and reshaping CRE financing amid a still‑steady Fed rate hold. They revisit the March 2020 COVID disruption, using TREP data to show which property sectors (notably hotels and retail) suffered the biggest loan non‑payment spikes and which trends have endured. The discussion also covers the massive $10.5 billion self‑storage consolidation and highlights emerging green shoots in office markets despite refinancing pressures. Throughout, Stephen Bushbaum provides data‑driven insights while Lonnie Hendry and host Haley Keene contextualize the macro‑economic and geopolitical forces at play.
During the conversation today with Lee Freeman-Shor and Clare Flynn Levy who have analyzed the trade data of many of the best fund managers in the world - I asked what decision type do successful managers have the most issues...
With global energy prices going vertical, the next metrics to watch are recession probabilities of net energy importers - particularly in South and Southeast Asia https://t.co/ehwgNBNqH4
January 2026 showed a mixed property market. New buyer registrations steadied at 74 per branch, while 29 % of adults reported difficulty covering rent or mortgage payments. In lettings, each available home attracted an average of seven applicants, even as fully managed...
🌏Capturing Asia’s rising wealth: A massive opportunity has opened to advise #SoutheastAsia’s growing mass affluent segment, which domestic banks have struggled to penetrate. Thanks to @FT_PWM for publishing Liam Reeve’s and my insights: https://t.co/r16mLZ2lEB #WealthManagement #PrivateBanking #WealthTech
India’s commerce ministry has launched a comprehensive audit of critical supply chains in pharma, textiles and fertilizers as the West Asia war threatens global trade. A detailed questionnaire asks firms to disclose import dependence, source countries and the substitutability of...
The UK lettings market has shown unexpected stability after the Autumn Budget, defying forecasts of a mass landlord exit. LRG’s Winter 2025/26 Lettings Report finds 51% of landlords intend to maintain or grow their portfolios, with tenant affordability driving 46%...
Prices of New Single-Family Homes Drop Further, Inventory of Completed New Homes for Sale Highest since 2009. Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come https://t.co/xfMYbwdtVK https://t.co/ImauhfwDWA
Central‑bank digital currency (CBDC) could remain neutral for banks if the central bank recycles CBDC balances back to them at rates equal to deposit‑funding costs, preserving credit creation and profit margins. Deposits, however, are hybrid instruments that provide money‑like services...
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals reported full‑year 2025 net revenue of $719.9 million, a 2% decline, while its Baqsimi franchise grew 12% to $185.4 million. The company secured FDA approval for ipratropium bromide HFA (AMP‑007), earning 180‑day generic exclusivity and positioning it as a near‑term...
The Federal Reserve’s Basel III reproposal softens capital requirements for mortgage‑backed assets, notably easing the Tier 1 cap on mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) while keeping a 250% risk weight. It introduces LTV‑based risk‑weight tiers, dropping to 25% for loans under 50% LTV,...
President Donald Trump’s team is scrambling for measures to curb soaring crude prices as the Iran‑Israel war enters its third week. Options on the table include a U.S. Navy escort for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a rapid...
You’re 32, Software Engineer, NYC. $250k income. $350k retirement $250k brokerage. Do you max retirement/brokerage accounts or focus on saving for a $1M apartment down payment?
Analysts applied a discounted cash flow model to The Coca‑Cola Company, estimating an intrinsic share value of roughly $18‑19. The model uses an 8% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth, and projects free cash flow reaching $6.7 billion by 2029, yielding a...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has abruptly removed roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude and refined oil from global markets, creating an immediate supply gap. Nations are resorting to inventory drawdowns, opportunistic purchases, emergency policies, and limited...
Russia is leveraging a U.S. waiver and global oil shortages to boost its crude and product exports. Seaborne product shipments jumped 25% to 2.6 million barrels per day, while crude exports rose about 10% in March. Production gaps caused by OPEC‑plus...
I know from my own losses and in reading your comments on X/Twitter how distraught many of you are with falling share prices. In looking at the likely 2026 industry-wide Box Office, we still expect it to grow materially over...
Diesel prices have spiked sharply as a series of supply‑chain disruptions converge on the market. Recent refinery outages, geopolitical tensions in key exporting regions, and unexpected weather events have tightened global diesel inventories. The price rally is reverberating through freight,...
Oil prices are set for a weekly rise as the Middle‑East conflict enters its fourth week, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and strikes persisting across the region. Brent crude traded above $108 per barrel, marking a more than...
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South Africa is confronting an acute fuel supply shock after the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted Middle‑East oil flows. The government assures no station shutdowns, yet industry‑level allocation bans have left diesel pumps dry in several provinces. A strategic petroleum...
The energy sector has logged 49 consecutive days in overbought territory, marking the second‑longest streak on record. Intraday crude oil futures are being pushed by extreme positioning swings and thin liquidity. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds data shows...
Brazil imposed a 50% tax on diesel and marine gasoil (MGO) exports on 12 March, causing demand in Brazilian ports to collapse. Suppliers report "non‑existent" MGO volumes as buyers shift to very‑low‑sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO). Even domestically flagged vessels now prefer...
Investors who stick to “boring” strategies—primarily low‑cost index funds—outperform many who chase flashy stocks. Morningstar data shows only 33% of active funds beat their passive peers between July 2024 and June 2025. Passive funds charge roughly 0.11% expense ratios versus 0.59% for...
It’s been another rollercoaster day in the oil market with both benchmarks trading in a wide range (CNBC charts below). Between the remarks from officials in Washington DC and those out of Israel — both following the attacks on energy infrastructure...
Cattle and lean‑hog futures fell on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as traders awaited the USDA On‑Feed report. Live cattle dropped $2.12 to $233.27 and feeder cattle slipped $6.07 to $347.75, while lean‑hog contracts were $1.70 lower at $92.05. Cash markets...
At the back of the yield curve, yields are moving higher across the board, and the UK 10-year GILT yield is testing the cycle highs from 2022. UK and US yields generally move in similar fashion, so this is something...
The First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF (FTXN) offers U.S. oil and gas exposure through a factor‑weighted, cash‑flow-focused methodology that emphasizes high‑quality producers. Its top ten holdings—XOM, CVX and COP—make up about 55 % of assets, and the fund has...
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
Dow Jones futures slipped 0.2% early Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also down. FedEx and Planet Labs rallied after earnings beats, while Super Micro Computer plunged following charges that executives smuggled Nvidia AI chips to China. Crude...
The selloff in silver over the past 15 days has been one of the most extreme moves we’ve seen in history. Only two other episodes are comparable: One marked a major peak, the other a major bottom. Personally, I have never seen a...
“Get long and buckle up,” says Jeff Currie. It took -$37 to clear oversupply during Covid Currie's "mirror image" approach indicates it may take $175 BRENT TO CLEAR THIS SHORTAGE That’s not volatility—that’s a regime shift #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis #Commodities #Macro #Supercycle
Three of four intermarket signals have turned risk‑off as utilities outperform the S&P 500 and Treasuries attract safe‑haven flows. The S&P 500 slipped below its 200‑day moving average, triggering a shift from leveraged SSO to plain SPY exposure. Meanwhile, gold’s...
Gold prices are suffering their worst week in six years. What's driving the crash, and where is this market going next? #gold #oilprice #inflation #fed #markets #macro #trading https://t.co/0hNC9B49Vg
California's ADU preemption law—of the sort Michigan is considering this year—has directly led to the construction of over 100,000 housing units that would have been illegal prior to 2017. https://t.co/dtgk8BfnNT
For most investors, a well-diversified portfolio of funds will do the trick. But if you want to try to identify winners like the pros on Wall Street, there are steps you can take. https://t.co/6RP6PY8ebH
Half hearted look at some cycle indicators, partly bc everyone is so zoomed in, partly bc bulls finally dropped. I'd just add that Long AUM spike was from everyone jumping into those garbage 1X and 2X quantum type single stock...
Good morning Asia, We are at the stage of the conflict where people are selling their gold (most valuable hard asset and a hedge for bad times) to buy oil. Got oil, gas, and may I say coal? https://t.co/fsqt6mevX1
Gold down wasn’t a surprise — it was the setup. 🥇📉 📈 Oil up 📈 Rates up 💵 Dollar up = short-term pressure on gold We sold SOME into the breakdown… Now buying it back into panic. 😈 Process > opinions.
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, rose +0.1% month-over-month between January 2026 and February 2026. Year-over-year: +0.4% Since the 2022 peak: +1.6% Since March 2020: +43.2% Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/LC4jle3nVp
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has joined Trump in jawboning the energy market. In a press conference, he said that Israel won't attack anymore oil and gas targets in Iran, and also indicated that the war would be over faster...
Let's look to multiple price metrics to try to understand the market. Here are various sources I watch every month. I think we can generally say prices are down about 2% from one year ago in the Sacramento region. Look...
Good timing with all this volatility for a market update with the @SquawkCNBC tomorrow 6:10am ET please tune in #fairleadstrategies
Dollar pressing range highs just below round 100. Break higher and liquidity tightens. Reject and risk can breathe a bit. $DXY https://t.co/ZvkycsmahB
Had the opportunity to speak alongside @ExnerPirot and Bob Yawger of Mizuho about the Iran War, the largest energy supply shock in history, and what it all means for Canada on @therundowntvo. Airs tonight on TVO at 8pm ET. https://t.co/XJgEE8PqMA
$PL Weekly View of the model book move This is a "serial gapper". Note the increasing average volume https://t.co/EBBHr8HVJK
Here's a question for options nerds Ignoring if it's "right" or "wrong" whether it's caused by paper flow or some expectations. Is baseline assumption in modern option thinking that each expiries vol skew represents an implied PDF and the vol...
$PL Gapping up post market. Post Market Volume is over 50% an average day's vol
OUT NOW - how @Rory_Johnston sees it: Unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, $220 oil and a recession is "almost guaranteed." $300+ oil & Global Depression are possible. Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf 1/3 https://t.co/gvV2pR4qXu
yep super nonlinear which gives you flexibility to stop worrying about a rapid snap back (ie, you can be short european cyclicals)
The chart below shows that high yield spreads appear to have broken out of its longstanding range. https://t.co/XDtyd2lmpz
