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The January Effect 2026 Edition revisits the century‑old seasonal rally that typically lifts equities and certain currency pairs in the first weeks of the year. By analysing price action from the 2025‑2026 transition, the piece highlights a pronounced EUR/USD volatility spike coinciding with heightened buying pressure in U.S. growth stocks. The article also references Peter Brandt’s chart‑based observations, noting that the effect remains robust despite tighter monetary policy and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Overall, the analysis suggests the pattern still offers a modest edge for disciplined traders.
Nifty50 March futures settled at...132 points premium over spot. >> Traditionally this reflects healthy implied financing (r − d) in the system. In simple terms, funding conditions are comfortable and there’s no aggressive demand to short futures. >> That usually aligns with...
Taking a look back to the 1930’s, we can see the various oil spikes over time. The top panel shows the 5-year CAPE ratio, and the bottom panel shows nominal oil prices in brown, and inflation-adjusted oil prices in purple...
Diesel prices jumped nearly a dollar, with the EIA reporting a national average of $4.86 per gallon for the week ending March 9, the highest level since December 2022 and approaching the $5 mark. California remained the costliest market at $6.10 per...
Oil prices are spiking as the frozen Straits of Hormuz has become the epicenter of the conflict. As of Sunday night’s futures open, WTI futures are trading at $108, which could make the...
With the conflict in Iran becoming seemingly more contracted, the markets seem to be pricing in a less benign outcome despite what has been a Goldilocks backdrop of robust earnings growth, rising margins and productivity, hefty capex spending, an easing...
The article outlines five essential financial actions mariners should take before their final sea assignment ends. It stresses locking in pension choices, de‑risking investment portfolios, leveraging high‑income years for tax planning, establishing a liquid transition fund, and redefining income streams...
Institutional landlord AMH says some Florida homebuilders are buying out their tenants leases "Some of the builders in our Florida markets got pretty aggressive, and we're willing to buy out some of our leases for our residents who were...
In a recent podcast, Chris Waller of Plural Investing and Hidden Gem Investing breaks down two high‑profile spin‑offs—GCI Liberty (GLIBK) and Seaport Entertainment (SEG). He explains why rights offerings on spin‑offs, championed by investors like Joel Greenblatt, can be compelling...
Your setup didn’t burn you. 🔥 Your expectations did. Even a 60% strategy loses 4 out of 10 trades. Consistency comes from executing the same edge over and over until the probabilities play out. Comment VWAP and I’ll send the guide 📈 #TraderMindset #DayTradingLife #TradingEducation
MP Materials Corp (NYSE: MP) shares rose 2.9% to $62.05, marking a 22% gain year‑to‑date after retreating from a January peak. The stock is now within 0.75 of the 200‑day moving average’s 20‑day average true range, a bullish signal that historically...
Absolute insanity: In just 2 hours, oil prices have now fallen -$10/barrel and risen +$11/barrel, with prices now nearing $90/barrel again. This is unprecedented volatility.
The episode covers a sharp drop in oil prices toward $80 a barrel as markets anticipate the release of strategic stockpiles amid Middle East tensions, while Australian consumer confidence falls and business sentiment turns negative. It highlights China’s surge in...
Salesforce $CRM is reportedly planning to sell as much as $25 billion worth of debt in order to fund its share buyback plan - Bloomberg
After a weaker overnight session, the market opened mixed with grains under pressure and soybeans gaining. Soy products rallied, driven by speculation that soybean balance sheets may tighten enough to trigger rationing. Grain prices were weighed down by divergent global...
Government loan performance issues have tightened underwriting, while jumbo credit availability rose 2.9% in the past month, driven by non‑QM loan growth. In contrast, FHA‑backed loan availability slipped 0.8% as delinquencies topped 11%. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index edged up...
Newrez introduced TitlePass, a title‑insurance waiver for qualified rate‑and‑term refinances in 18 states, promising up to $2,200 savings for borrowers. Pennymac’s third‑party origination arm launched a non‑QM menu featuring debt‑service‑coverage‑ratio, bank‑statement, and asset‑qualifier loans aimed at entrepreneurs and retirees. Rate’s...
In this episode, Paula Pant and former financial planner Joe Salcihai answer a listener’s question about the optimal size and placement of an emergency fund. They explain that the right fund size depends on personal risk tolerance and capacity, such...
David Schulhof’s MUSQ Global Music Industry ETF is launching the Amplify Music Investment Summit in New York on May 8. The event, co‑hosted with Mondo NYC, will feature a keynote with Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl and panels on streaming, live...
Physicians are being warned that inflation can erode retirees' purchasing power more sharply than for working‑age patients, especially when fixed incomes meet rising healthcare costs. The article outlines how price spikes in prescription drugs, long‑term care, and everyday expenses disproportionately...
February 2026 saw a split in global ferrous scrap pricing, with Europe and China posting modest gains while the United States and Turkey experienced declines. Turkish HMS 1&2 (80:20) slipped 0.6% to $373.1 per tonne, and U.S. East Coast HMS...
Pivoting to a more accurate "probability of adjustment" framing, there is a simpler way to talk about "retirement income risk" that relies on the concepts of overspending and underspending. https://t.co/MEL3idSI4O This can help both advicer and client better understand the trade-offs...
An entrepreneur eliminated $60,000 of personal debt in one year by relying solely on online side hustles, without building a social media following. The strategy combined traditional freelancing—admin, digital support, and operations work—with tech‑focused user‑generated content (UGC) for brands. By...
We've been chopping around for the last 2 hours, as expected on $SPX. I can see some positive exposure building at $6860, which is my next resistance over $6840 if it can break out of this range.
The leading public colocation operators—Digital Realty, Equinix, Iron Mountain and American Tower—closed 2025 with record revenues, each surpassing $6 billion and collectively topping $35 billion. Digital Realty posted $6.112 billion in total revenue and a $857 million Adjusted EBITDA, while Equinix reached $9.217 billion and...
U.S. homebuilders face a tough 2026 backdrop marked by strained affordability, rising land and material costs, and cautious buyer sentiment despite underlying demand. Builders are leaning on mortgage buydown incentives and selective land acquisitions to sustain sales, while technology adoption...
A lot of people ask me for higher volatility alternatives for "capital efficiency" reasons. And on it's face, it makes sense. Instead of putting $100 in a 10% vol strategy, you can just put $25 in a 40% vol strategy. But there are...
Vail Resorts reported its Q2 2026 results amid the worst Rockies weather on record, with snowfall down 43% year‑over‑year and February temperatures 9°F above average. The harsh conditions limited terrain to 70‑80% of acreage, driving a 13% drop in skier visits,...
The Israel‑U.S. attacks on Iran have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a virtual no‑go zone, halting shipments of crude, natural gas and key fertilizers. Blocked exports of nitrogen, ammonia and phosphates pushed urea prices 71% to $600 a ton,...
US oil prices fall over -16% on the day and officially drop below $80/barrel. Geopolitical risk premiums are being rapidly priced-out. The oil market says the war is ending.
Another winner from Biolsi @Hedgeye_Staples that you got from The Call @HedgeyeTV today too = Long $CASY
Financial Serenity highlights the BALI fund, which merges U.S. large‑cap equity exposure, systematic covered‑call writing, and futures overlays to generate high monthly income while dampening volatility relative to the S&P 500. The concentrated, growth‑oriented portfolio has outperformed peers such as JEPI...
McGough nailed this $KSS reversal. But, if you watch The Call @HedgeyeTV every day, you already knew that @HedgeyeRetail
Another illustration that displays just how few places there are to hide in this market. Short $COST big. Short $WMT smedium. https://t.co/GNQlkIyRbv
Amplify ETFs launched the Amplify Municipal CEF High Income ETF (YYYM) on March 10, offering a fund‑of‑funds structure that aggregates 30 U.S. municipal bond closed‑end funds. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq Municipal Bond CEF High Income™ Index, emphasizing high yield, NAV...
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
⚡️ Roku to Breakout Platform Revenue for the 1st Time Ever ⚡️ Investors have been asking @Roku to breakout the components of platform revenue for as long as we can remember. Earlier today, at an investor conference, $ROKU CFO, Dan Jedda,...
Buying $CBOE on red today. Why is this one of the few "Financials" Signaling Buy? @SamofAmerica
Sold a bunch of $RIG this morning on the 1st lower-highs Signal fyi @SamofAmerica @RPKent
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
$BAC conference notes no change to solid fundamentals: 1Q expects NII 7% y/y growth, WM DD, IB up 10% with loan growth "out of the gate strong" led by commercial & above H.8 data.
$HYG hasn't cracked yet. Credit spreads are tight while equities chop and oil spikes. High yield is either the smartest market in the room or the last one to figure it out. https://t.co/v5eGL2YwEZ
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Three-Week Surge Stalls – Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/Jpdp8iqepv $USDJPY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/bYSgW6uDag
Software (IGV) buyer 40,000 August $80 puts $5.40 Oh god, what is Claude about to do next
Reports indicate US Energy Secretary deleted his social media post claiming the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. USD has turned better bid following the deletion. Stocks trim earlier gains. April WTI recovering off...
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil demand. It's still closed. OPEC+ pledged 206K bpd in April. Middle East producers are cutting because storage is full. Supply math doesn't work when the pipe is shut. https://t.co/EMaJvlSk4u
$INTC nice move today out of the base and over all major ma's. Still own it here. https://t.co/OlrGxoCa8g
$GOOGL a close over the 21ma on my radar. No change to the stop today. https://t.co/x9cSWUMbgw
U.S. Navy escorts its first tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. #corn & #wheat prices follow crude oil lower, but #soybeans hang onto modest gains on hopes we'll get final RVOs from EPA any day, with possible exports to China....
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
