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The February 28 Gulf War between the United States‑Israel coalition and Iran has quickly rippled to Mongolia, prompting its foreign ministry to alert the 281 Mongolian nationals living in the Middle East and arrange emergency repatriation flights. By March 11, 91 citizens had returned home, while the conflict has stalled Mongolia’s budding economic ties with Gulf states and a planned North‑South Transport Corridor through Iran. Mongolia continues to champion diplomatic dialogue, supporting UN cease‑fire resolutions despite the war’s escalation. The episode underscores how distant geopolitical shocks can constrain small‑state foreign policy and trade ambitions.
The S&P 500 just closed beneath the December low in the Q1. 38 times this happened and 38 times it didn't. When it breaks (like this year) the avg full yr return is 0.2% and up only 50% of time versus 18.9%...
$SPX - We are getting a lower low after all. Going back to the April low, we've had a ~80 trading day cycle. Due to many holidays in this cycle, I expect this cycle to be shorter in trading days...
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 35.3 amid the U.S.–Iran conflict and has settled near 26, indicating lingering market fear. The S&P 500 has slipped about 3 % since the war began, while Brent crude surged to roughly $100 per barrel,...
"We’ve been operating in what we see as an anomalous market environment for the past two years; specifically, the momentum-driven U.S. market has been one of the most extreme in history. [This] has also created compelling company-specific opportunities moving forward. [O]ur portfolios’...
The outbreak of the Iran war has pushed global oil‑derivative prices higher, causing imported 10 ppm (S10) diesel in Brazil to trade above biodiesel for the first time since October 2023. On 6 March, S10 diesel at Paranaguá reached R5.173 /m³, surpassing the R4.656 /m³...
European jet fuel reached an all‑time high of $1,646.25 per tonne on 12 March, with premiums soaring to $109.72 per barrel over Brent crude and $518.5 per tonne over ICE gasoil. The price surge follows the war in the Middle East,...
European refiners are maintaining their spring turnaround schedules despite a sharp surge in crack spreads triggered by the US‑Iran war’s disruption of Strait of Hormuz flows. Jet crack spreads peaked at $109.19 per barrel and diesel cracks at $63.92 per...
Options traders are pricing in heightened risk as the Iran‑Israel conflict escalates, driving premiums on oil‑related contracts. CME Group’s CEO Terry Duffy warned that any U.S. attempt to directly intervene in oil futures could trigger a “biblical disaster,” potentially destabilizing...
Just because it's an essential doesn't mean you should overpay for it. Most people look to their subscriptions as the first thing to go when they need to cut back, and they don't even notice the bills that are actually...
Brent crude has traded in a $47 range since late February. $73 to $120 and back to $96. That's not a market. It's a seismograph. Nobody has conviction. Everyone has exposure.
Entrepreneurs often tie the bulk of their net worth to their businesses, creating financial complexity that extends beyond daily operations. Wealth management offers a coordinated strategy that blends investment diversification, tax planning, retirement, estate, and risk management to protect and...
Earnings lottos 3/12/26 Adobe $290 Calls 255 Puts RBRK $63 Calls $48 Puts ULTA $682 Calls 597.5 Puts I don’t love em but let’s see what we got
Canadian building permits rose 4.8% to $13.3 billion in January, but inflation‑adjusted values only reached $12.3 billion, still below pre‑2023 levels. Residential permits increased 1.8% to $8.0 billion yet fell 9.4% year‑over‑year, with single‑family permits up 8.9% and multi‑family down 1.5% amid a...
During a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, lawmakers highlighted how the Iran‑Israel war threatens the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for up to 30% of global fertilizer exports. Farmers warned that disrupted shipments could push already‑high input costs to record levels,...
Estate planning often pits equal splits against equitable distributions, especially when adult children have vastly different financial circumstances. Harry Margolis advises parents to address disparities through lifetime assistance or specialized tools rather than altering the will. Strategies like special‑needs trusts...
The Internal Revenue Service issued a six‑page notice proposing amendments to the tax‑exempt refunding bond regulations. The changes would formally include 90‑day Treasury certificates in the definition of tax‑exempt bonds, clarifying how proceeds moved from State and Local Government Series...
Around 15 metric tons net of physical Silver was drained from the SGE & SHFE Silver vaults today.
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Republican lawmakers have asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to use executive authority to index capital gains on primary residences to inflation. Indexing would adjust the cost basis, potentially reducing taxable gains for long‑term homeowners, especially higher‑income sellers. The proposal builds...
Investors confront two distinct threats to wealth: inflation and market bear markets. Historical data shows bear markets can plunge 20‑50% in months, with recoveries ranging from five months to seven years, while a steady 3% inflation rate trims purchasing power...
In this episode, BNY Mellon CIO Jason Granet discusses the current and future shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, arguing that recent flattening is a temporary, cyclical retracement and that a steeper curve is likely to resume. He and...
Loomis Sayles emphasizes that true long‑term investing isn’t about dodging market swings but about holding high‑quality companies through them. The Growth Equity Strategies Team outlines a disciplined, differentiated approach to owning great businesses, with performance data current through December 31 2025. The...
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index slipped 0.73% to 6,113.58 as oil prices surged to $100 per barrel amid heightened Middle East tensions. Analysts warned that oil could climb to $200, stoking inflation concerns and prompting expectations of a Bangko Sentral...
This chart, which has been doing the rounds, shows one of the most hedged equity markets in years. That usually means fear is already priced in, and the risk asymmetry increasingly favors upside surprises rather than further panic selling. This chart...
in fairness this is the only correct answer, if Bessent says "$xyz" then the Iranians have every incentive to act in a manner that drives oil prices to "$xyz"
The Austin City Council approved up to $575 million in water and wastewater revenue‑refunding and improvement bonds. $450 million will refinance short‑term commercial paper into long‑term debt, while $75 million will refund callable Series 2015 A bonds and $50 million will fund capital projects at the...
The S&P 500 closed below its 170-day moving average for the first time since May.
Equal-Weight Materials backtesting the breakout from the 2022 & 2024 highs. That level mattered then, matters now. $RSPM $XLB https://t.co/4V8doWcsR4
DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN) surged 10.77% to $68.69 as investors bet on its growing role in enterprise AI infrastructure. The rally follows a Q4 2025 earnings beat, with EPS of $0.44 and revenue of $242.39 million, outpacing expectations. Trading volume jumped to...
S&P 500's worst close of the year... lowest since late November -4.5% from the January record high https://t.co/kASRYfc9MR
I don't know if the peak oil price will be $125 or $225 but I strongly suspect on a time basis it comes in the next 4-6 weeks, and markets will trade differently after that peak (like June 2022).
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Total‑market index funds give investors a single‑ticket exposure to the entire U.S. equity market, tracking benchmarks like the CRSP Total Market Index or Russell 3000. Vanguard VTSAX, Schwab SWTSX, iShares IWV, and Wilshire WFIVX are highlighted for their low fees, diversification,...
Failed breakout to clear the 2023 high in $AUDUSD Now off more than 1.6% off the high. Support now 7037 with 6913/43 still key. Resistance 7158 with 7208/14 critical #AUDUSD Daily Chart https://t.co/Cui4nVGM5q
Homebuilders $XHB worst 9-day selloff since June 2022 -13% since the first of the month. The housing market sucks. @stockcharts https://t.co/wJDyxPUMdv
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Gas prices rose another two cents on Thursday, pushing the national regular‑gas average to $3.60 per gallon – a 62‑cent increase since the end of February. The surge follows higher crude prices driven by the Iran conflict, ending a 13‑week...
What's the Land's End $LE stub worth? I guess we'll know next week. If there's any interest I'll write it up, still an opportunity to enter & tender ahead of next Thursday's earnings (where I expect a clean PF bridge...
Nothing new here, and cycles matter + drivers/duration, but I'd note in more durable moves you can repress or disinflate, but you can't do both. The room for repression is def far less, the durability and duration of the drivers in...
$SPX has traded below the latest trading box for 7 straight days. Only closed below it twice. Today would be the 3rd. https://t.co/gYeIND2TmK
There's actually a pretty decent list of S&P 500 52wk highs... bunch of food/ag, chemicals, refiners @stockcharts 1-in-4ish US stocks are up today https://t.co/ebgPXxwKyU
Cramer getting sassy about Iran not having the cards to force oil to $200/bbl by citing the US experience in the... Vietnam War? I've LITERALLY NEVER BEEN SO BULLISH. https://t.co/d8799zIp8i
As the front part of the curve moves closer toward pricing in Fed rate hikes, SPX is down just 1.2%... and the Russell 2000 isn't getting killed $SPY $IWM https://t.co/ITSA3q3sjN
The president expresses a desire for a rare intermeeting rate cut. The last one occurred on March 15, 2020, as the Covid shock overwhelmed financial markets. The Fed's next scheduled policy decision announcement—widely expected to be no change in rates—is in...
$YEXT spread for an odd lot tender at low end of Dutch Auction range is now ~$50 on ~$520 deployed for ~10 day capital lock-up. This is the stuff small investors should locate within tax wrappers to maximize after tax...
Brent closes the day above $100 a barrel for the first time in three and a half years. Note: during the 2022 crisis, Brent settled above triple-digit level for 110 days. So far in 2026, just one day.
$BROS no green to red stop hit all out made OK money on the remaining shares.
Brent crude price, Iran-War-to-date My expectation is that this rough/steady slope will hope, grinding $3+/bbl higher each and every day this crisis persists, always with the possibility of big lurches higher should Iran successfully take out major regional oil infrastructure. https://t.co/nwGMcg7rja
Do or die $TSLA downsloping 20sma holding it down, 200sma holding it up. One will break soon. Place your bets. https://t.co/csbOJugLZu
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
The AI trade that’s separating Wall Street’s winners and losers: semis > software It helped power $100mln+ in gains for a Point72 PM and helped convince the manager of a 23-year-old hedge fund to call it quits https://t.co/zUWC9pfB3X
J.P. Morgan just raised its gold target to $6,300. When the biggest bank on Wall Street tells you to buy the hardest asset, maybe the dollar story isn't as strong as you think. https://t.co/Rt7VeK8qHJ
