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SpotGamma’s Compass, Equity Hub, and HIRO flow tools identified a bearish breakdown in MicroStrategy (MSTR) after the stock slipped below the critical $165 call wall, a key gamma level. The breach triggered aggressive put buying and call selling, prompting market makers to hedge by selling shares, which accelerated the decline. Traders entered short at $164.90, targeting liquidity at $160 and a hedge‑wall support at $156, achieving reward‑to‑risk ratios between 5:1 and 9:1. The case demonstrates how real‑time options flow and gamma‑level analysis can generate high‑probability intraday trades.
Modified RMD: Utilizing Rolling Three-Year Averages To Reduce Volatility ➡️In our modified RMD approach, the average of the last three years of portfolio values is used to calculate the withdrawal, rather than the value on a single (arbitrary) day. The total...
As I noted in this thread, no oil infrastructure was damaged. This was all about waiting for a resolution to gets the ships moving again. Looks like that happened and the market is pricing in the end of the war. Headlines * TRUMP...
IDB Invest has joined a multi‑lender financing package worth up to $1.175 billion to expand Rio Tinto’s Rincón Mining lithium project in Salta, Argentina. The bank will provide a $100 million loan and technical assistance, while the International Finance Corporation, Export Finance...
Recent research demonstrates that machine learning can dramatically accelerate the pricing of complex derivatives and improve crash‑prediction analytics. A two‑stage framework using a Gaussian Process Regressor (GPR) trained on full volatility‑surface inputs delivers near‑instant valuations with sub‑percent errors for variance...
Brad Newman‑Bennett of Cushman & Wakefield warns that Canadian real‑estate insolvencies have moved beyond secondary lenders to senior banks, as land values have slumped roughly 50 % since purchase. The fallout has stalled high‑rise, concrete projects while distressed sales remain scarce...
TaxEDU is launching a free webinar to kick off Financial Literacy Month, focusing on tax filing, refunds, and the broader impact of taxes on personal finances. The session will also break down recent changes introduced by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Zoe...
A wave of geopolitical conflict in 2026 has reignited demand for defense and unmanned‑air‑vehicle technologies, sending defense‑related equities soaring. Drone‑focused ETFs such as the Rex Drone ETF (DRNZ) posted a 29.4% gain over the past three months, while broader defense...
Rabobank’s Q1 Global Dairy Quarterly reports a modest rebound in dairy manufacturing prices, driven primarily by Australian and New Zealand products. Despite the rally, global milk supply remains abundant, with production growth projected to slow to just 0.2% in 2026 after...
The episode opens with a discussion of oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel, the sharpest jump in years, and the resulting market fear as higher energy costs threaten corporate earnings, inflation, and consumer spending. Hosts Jon Quass, Rachel Warren,...
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have forced Iraq to curtail oil production as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, exposing Iraq's dependence on Iranian gas and electricity. The disruption comes just as major U.S. oil majors—ExxonMobil, Chevron and...
The Nasdaq Composite bounced off its 200-day moving average and today is Day 1 of a rally attempt. From here, I would like to see minimal to no distribution over the next few days and a follow through day later...
The war with Iran has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 20% of daily global oil shipments and pushing Brent crude to $105 per barrel, its highest level since July 2022. The supply squeeze lifted gasoline...
Oil prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel amid the Iran conflict, then fell to about $90 after President Trump suggested the war could end soon. Energy analysts identify $110‑$120 as the threshold where crude demand begins to weaken, indicating...
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
Research firm ETFGI reports thematic ETFs assets surged nearly 50% in 2025, reaching about $468 billion by November. The growth marks the first annual net inflow streak in twelve months, reversing previous outflows. Investor appetite remains strong globally, driven by sector‑specific...
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 0.6% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-b1a My sense - based on limited data - is sales will be above the consensus forecast, but will likely be down slightly year-over-year.
Adjustable‑rate mortgage (ARM) originations climbed in 2025 despite falling 30‑year fixed rates, reaching a 20.5% share of conventional volume, the highest in three years. The 5/1 ARM remained about 80 basis points cheaper than the fixed‑rate benchmark, saving borrowers roughly...
The outbreak of war involving Iran has triggered a sharp contraction in oil output and transit, pushing global energy prices up by over 15 percent. The surge in energy costs is reigniting inflation expectations worldwide, prompting traders to anticipate more...
Puts have been selling off since the open on Mag 7, totaling $64M short-dated single-leg Puts sold today. 👇
$15M Call Spike on $SPY just before close. Trump said, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much.”
Kinetik Holdings, a Permian‑focused midstream energy firm, is poised to profit from the recent surge in oil and natural‑gas prices. The company currently offers a 7.1% dividend yield and plans to raise the payout 3‑5% annually, with coverage ratios improving...
I am glad that I have remained patient so far. If you had jumped the bandwagon on oil this morning, you would have been 20% down ish by now. I know the below is not a guarantee, but I stick...
You can't pick a stock market bottom, you can only pick a stock market discount. The strategy for investing is simple: 1. Always stay invested at an asset allocation 2. If the stock market falls 25%/50%/75%, invest 25% of the allocation not...
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) is trading down 2% at $193.50 ahead of its Q4 earnings on March 12, marking its lowest close since June and reflecting a 10.1% year‑over‑year revenue decline. The stock’s options market shows a pronounced bullish tilt,...
The S&P 500 has broken through key support at its 100-day and 20-week moving average for the first time in about a year, increasing the probability of a full correction in the index in coming weeks. There have been just 8...
WTI crude oil's best start to a year on record... well it was... (NYMEX futures begin in March 1983) @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/TPJ8psJtdo
BMO Capital Markets declares Toronto’s condo segment in recession, citing a 9.5% year‑over‑year price drop and sales falling 6.4% in February. The market is awash with new units, many of which lack buyer interest, leading to project cancellations and delayed...
ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/R1NJQM4nyj Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @MarketCharts @topdowncharts @StockCharts @MikeZaccardi @zerohedge @dailychartbook @Bluekurtic @BoringBiz_
WTI crude oil fell below $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump told CBS that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” Earlier in the day, WTI had surged to a peak of $119. https://t.co/ElHrOuNRmc
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) released its fiscal 2026 first‑quarter results, highlighting stronger revenue and improved margins compared with the prior year. The CFO outlined a solid cash position bolstered by a recent $150 million convertible‑note financing. Management emphasized expanding its modular fuel‑cell...
Not only rich but an elite investor because over any reasonable period of time the vast majority of equity fund managers, like 90%, will underperform the S&P 500. We don’t need them. And I’ll never understand why capitalism hasn’t pointed...
South Korea ripped off the 50-day. 11:20am sweeper bought 149K of the 3/27 150C. Feels like the same trader who nailed the short last Monday. Reminds me of the old $DIA sweeper from back in the day. If you know, you know. $EWY https://t.co/35pRSiDF13
Finally tally for USO was $16b of volume. Here's how that looks vs every other day of trading in its 20yr life. My guess is this is the peak, we cool off from here. But what a comeback in relevancy...
OUT NOW - Michael Howell @crossbordercap on: - why he expects 2026 to be bad for risk assets - why he's bullish bonds & Chinese stocks - Gold, Bitcoin, & yield curve, and "Turbulence" phase of Liquidity cycle Apple🔊https://t.co/7bjoJLeYdJ Spotify📽️https://t.co/plpNPVQicu https://t.co/1mD9VJPm5e
nice bounce in $GOOGL closes above the 30min downtrend. need ot see a couple of closes above 305 to believe the short term low is in... https://t.co/zbD0srOwCf
Did you raise cash last week or did you sell vol, deploy cash, and sell put spreads?
Perhaps President Trump's negotiation backstop is the 200-day SMA on the $SPX just like the rest of us... https://t.co/Jw1ZvsM3pP
The oil market thinks Trump just TACO’d (I’m less convinced, but let’s see) A $30 price swing in a day, helped by expectations of a big strategic oil stock release. Such larks. Oil tumbles to $90 as Trump says Iran war...
$NVDA 200sma again coming in clutch and a solid spot as a tell going forward https://t.co/GkapjyrNKa
New free article: The $DBC ETF is 80% crude oil. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/0UwhX5CPUy
The oil price isn't one of those things that spirals infinitely up. At current levels near $100, a big risk premium prices the temporary standstill of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. You can bet Trump is working like crazy...
$SPY now up 1% on the day.. let the gnashing of the teeth commence https://t.co/PDQSFKpyuT
The first two months of the year have started off with lower closed sales volume than 2025. The hope is for March 2026 to be a little higher in light of slightly more pendings lately. https://t.co/Ctj0EyVXqx
The stock market bottomed out 17 years ago today. The market is up 10-fold since then (incl divs). https://t.co/SZqfiM1kX3
Seems sort of fitting that the market would have a major upside reversal on March 9th.
Oil turned red, and stock indexes turned green. Looks like an oil blow off top and a stock index washout low in the futures market overnight.
10-year yield at 4.15%. Up 18 bps in a week. Bonds selling off into a growth scare. That's not supposed to happen. When Treasuries stop being a safe haven, the playbook is broken. https://t.co/yIChc2y0aR
$SPX Monster reversal. ✅ 👉But it means nothing until the series of lower highs is broken. https://t.co/S175U5VDpk
Ray Wang makes the case for investing in tech https://t.co/Xc0L0HR1qL @FoxBusiness @cvpayne @rwang0 of @constellationr discusses @Broadcom's quarter, mega-cap buys, stock-based compensation and more on 'Making Money.' https://t.co/R7sDw6EAZn
