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The latest episode of Volatility Trading Strategies examines how the escalating Iran‑Russia conflict could trigger a sharp market correction. Host Brent Osachoff outlines a shortlist of exchange‑traded funds that historically perform well during geopolitical shocks, including gold miners, short‑duration Treasuries, consumer staples, and inverse volatility products. He also discusses risk‑management tactics for traders seeking to preserve capital while positioning for upside if equities tumble. The episode encourages listeners to test these strategies with a free trial of the VTS platform.
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced it will begin throttling oil production as domestic storage fills, a precautionary step ahead of potential forced shutdowns. The move follows Iran’s recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which have severely constrained tanker...
OK. Pending apocalypse or local bottom? @Nations_Indexes TailDex ($TDEX aka crash put) hit 30 on Friday with $VOLI (ATM vol) at 22.58. TDEX level is 97th percentile and spread above VOLI also 97th percentile. You don't need to look far...
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
Zambia and the United Kingdom have signed an amendment that reduces Zambia's outstanding debt to the UK from $291 million to about $277 million and pushes the final repayment deadline from 2032 to 2043. The deal is part of Zambia’s broader debt‑restructuring...
The Strait of Hormuz is shut. So what's a catalyst for oil prices to fall and not rise as everyone's now saying? The most obvious thing would be the collapse of Iran's regime, the odds of which are rising every...
Most usage of Software Factory are by companies solving their own problems. They aren’t looking to create public demos. That said, if you’re a fund or family office and need a lightweight but robust way to manage your schedule of...
Iran’s financial markets entered a pronounced lull after US and Israeli strikes heightened geopolitical risk, leaving many trading venues partially shut and liquidity thin. Online dollar pricing via USDT surged to IRR 1,550,000 per dollar, yet physical dollar dealers accept roughly...
Kalshi markets on oil futures is crazy because it’s a 2nd derivative. Current oil price-> CL futures (first derivative) -> Kalshi (2nd derivative). Leads to very odd dynamics if Kalshi markets get big enough
The United States and Israel are escalating a military campaign against Iran, raising concerns that the conflict could divert American attention and resources. Analysts warn that this distraction may allow China to deepen its strategic foothold in the Indo‑Pacific. The...
US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright: “… The oil is there […] You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace. But the world is not short of oil today or natural gas…” (Not sure this verbal massaging is...
The Weekly Compass is Live In a week defined by high volatility, our systematic approach delivered results: 8 of 9 high-probability setups reached their targets 🎯. Access the new weekly plan and a neutral volatility assessment. https://open.substack.com/pub/smartreversals/p/tension-at-the-gate
Andrew Carey argues that 2026 could become a turning point for hospitality investment as interest rates retreat and debt constants settle between 7% and 9%, reopening the door to positive leverage. However, cap‑rate expectations have not yet risen, keeping pricing...
A game-plan that works in supply constrained markets: Identify older buildings with apartments that are too large relative to the number of beds and baths they have (for example a 1,000 sq ft one bed). During renovation, using permits, reconfigure the units...
$TSLA - Found support at the yearly pivot for the 2nd time in the last 5 weeks. A weekly close below 387 will confirm that it made a major top in December, but I don't expect it to happen next...
At Morgan Stanley’s TMT conference, Meta CFO Susan Li highlighted the company’s IREV metric, showing steady ad‑performance improvements driven by AI and larger data pools. She explained Meta’s push to scale data, redistribute ad loads, and deploy large‑language models for real‑time...
The article explains how cognitive biases—analysis paralysis, loss aversion, and the sunk‑cost fallacy—keep investors on the sidelines, causing them to miss years of market growth. It highlights that waiting for perfect conditions or fearing short‑term losses forfeits the compounding power...
The Indicator of the Day highlights the NASDAQ Eakle Advance‑Decline Index, a breadth metric that compares the number of advancing versus declining stocks on the Nasdaq exchange. Recent chart data shows the index climbing even as the Nasdaq Composite has...
Retirees increasingly turn to gold to cushion their savings when equity markets tumble. While Social Security and pensions provide a baseline, many seniors need additional buffers against inflation and sudden corrections. Financial advisers typically suggest allocating 5%‑10% of a portfolio...
Seven closed‑end funds, including Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund and six peers, have never reduced their distributions in more than ten years, offering reliable high‑yield income. The list features PIMCO’s PDI and PCN, utility‑focused UTG and DNP, and healthcare funds THW...
The article spotlights three members of the "Magnificent Seven"—Alphabet, Apple, and Nvidia—as compelling additions for investors with as little as $1,000. Alphabet’s Google Cloud revenue surged 48% to $17.7 billion, while its advertising engine remains dominant. Apple’s modest $12.7 billion AI spend...
With vol high/skew high but OTM calls also high and with equities in a minor drawdown those with undiversified max long U.S. equity portfolios are whipping around "options" trade ideas as the solution. Looking for ways to hedge. ...
PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (PTY) trades at an 11.24% distribution yield, delivering $1.43 per share despite a recent price decline. The fund’s net asset value remains resilient, indicating solid portfolio quality, while the discount stems mainly from premium...
If you sold long stocks on Friday and bought 10d 3 month calls at equal notional you are going to underperform badly in most right tail events. Doing it delta neutral is highly likely to get destroyed in most...
The Sunday Stalk List | Ep. 39 Punches were landed this week, and not by the bulls.. https://t.co/JwYFveywfv
busy week ahead with CPI GDP $ORCL $PATH $ADBE earnings and lots of news flow. Get my game plan tomorrow: https://t.co/YtTTmqCyAJ https://t.co/IOFyfaYqny
This ResiClub table helps you see through the seasonal inventory shift noise The inventory growth slope has decelerated from last year However, based on the February figure—the most important print of the year—we’re pacing a tad above the normal seasonal pace https://t.co/6IrsSaR9mW
The low level of active US oil and gas rigs indicate a quick ramp in production is unlikely without sustained high oil prices and higher E&P company share prices. https://t.co/GDCcOHcEBE
List prices are 1.38% below last year. Home prices have been negative since October and are moving lower, relative to last year. Here's two views https://t.co/xHl3d0HNvs
📈New-crop CBOT corn & soybeans marked new annual highs on Friday, both surpassing the 2025 highs. But could even higher prices come beyond March? Dec corn hasn't set its annual high in March since 1999, soybeans haven't since 2004. https://t.co/gfh7zbFw5j
Tax wrappers (IRAs, HSAs, etc.) are cheat codes for arbs & special situations. Active investors using them as indexing & long-term only vehicles are sabotaging their risk adjusted after tax returns. https://t.co/HDlplC0mGI
While positioning clients long VIX & Oil, we had another great play past two weeks: My call for Hardware Into Software Rotation 😉 Have a look 👀🤩😻 https://t.co/zKBn1g7m1F
Moontower Sunday pitchfork CLAWback In this issue: 🌙half-baked AI thoughts 🌙making your own teacher 🌙a satisfying derivation of the 80% straddle rule https://t.co/K5xTbWQpU1 refs: @outlieroptions
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The human brain processes images 60,000 times faster than text, and the retention of information presented in graphs is much higher than text. NOTHING BEATS A GOOD GRAPH. TURKEY booms. Before the war, IRAN did not tank. LEBANON is in the...
Look at the distribution of units built in Bellevue, Washington. In buildings since 2010 with more than 20 units ... over 70% of new units are Studio or 1BRs, and less than 2% have 3+ bedrooms We don’t build apartments for...
Dragonfly Capital - 5 Trade Ideas for Monday: APA, Fidelity National, Fastly, Intercontinental Exchange and Ring $APA $FIS $FSLY $ICE $RNG https://t.co/bmIVUw2USa https://t.co/eLsvqsBbW9
High-income job declines don’t work well for the housing market. This is a trend (namely at local level) we’ve been hammering on the last few years as we maintain a weak outlook for housing in general. https://t.co/jN2DMafhy5 https://t.co/NhCzjO8knR
Weekly Market Report: Between a Rock and a Hard Place. Everything you need to know or stop paying attention to. Link in reply below. 👇 $SPY $TLT $DBC $GLD https://t.co/QdGU8J0KdM
Premium Users - Top Trade Ideas for the Week of March 9, 2026: The Best, on the blog and here https://t.co/9TMJXjTA2I
BAGHDAD, March 8 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to...
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
Stair Stepper and Ripping Through The S&P 500. Overwhelming majority of charts are messy. https://t.co/981sGtJSOu
Nice one from @greg_ip of @WSJ on the potential impacts on the spike in oil. https://t.co/FcZEQltWw3
JPM: "If the oil supply shock is sustained, we think each 10% increase in oil prices should translate to a ~10bp gain in headline PCE inflation and a 15-20bp drag on GDP growth."
Chevron and ExxonMobil have a stake in major Kazakh oil projects, which flow through Russia to be exported. Ukrainian strikes on any related infrastructure risk harming those American energy companies’ bottom line, and that simply will not do. #crudeoil #drones #geopolitics...
The week ended the same way it started — defense. $SPY 680 held all week until Friday. Breadth, regime, posture — all red. Drones are showing some signs of life. New post is up 👇 (reply) https://t.co/F63KJoybso
And here's my version using $VIX, VX30 (constant maturity VIX futures) and SPX RV21 that's ~ 30 calendar days. https://t.co/e8dCY61qju
Fertilisers are rightfully getting a lot of focus now. China looks to be ok (for now). The state has stockpiles and there is material at ports. Exports of urea (nitrogen-based) were already tightly managed and it's hard to see more...
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...
