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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The weekly CEF market review highlights persistently tight closed‑end fund discounts, with utilities and MLP funds posting the strongest weekly gains. CLO equity fund CCIF announced a distribution cut despite generating net interest income above its prior payout level, signaling a shift toward capital preservation. MFS taxable CEFs exhibit low coverage ratios and elevated distribution rates, while Aberdeen’s consolidation trend narrows relative‑value opportunities. Lower leverage costs could enhance returns for high‑income funds like Western Asset’s offering.
A recent video analysis highlights a sharp oil price shock, driven by escalating Middle‑East tensions, that pushed crude above 10% in a single week. Simultaneously, the market for exchange‑grade silver bars is tightening, with inventories down roughly 15% as industrial...
Neuberger Real Estate Securities Income Fund (NRO) is now trading at an 8.18% discount, enhancing its appeal as a tactical play. The fund offers a robust 12.36% distribution yield, but ongoing NAV erosion and the risk of over‑distribution temper enthusiasm...
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
It's actually never been cheaper to rent in Austin, TX. The Rent/Income ratio across the metro has dropped to 18.3% - the lowest on record (going back at least 20 years). Landlords are aggressively cutting rents at a time when incomes in...
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 700 oil cargoes, representing about $40 billion in trade, and exposed the vulnerability of Europe’s post‑2022 energy strategy. Simultaneously, Russia warned it could exit the European market before any formal ban,...
The diesel surge is welcome news for freight brokers that have contracted freight. Fuel surcharges will provide a lot of relief, as the diesel surge is moving much quicker than trucking spot rates. Brokers will make a couple of percent on fuel...
Looks like the start of a beautiful “oil glut” partnership between the IEA and the Trump administration. Markets may have other ideas. #OilMarkets #EnergyPolicy #IEA #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/IPd77wk6Q7
UI Boustead Reit will debut on the SGX mainboard on March 12, offering a S$1.9 billion portfolio of 23 logistics and industrial assets across Singapore and Japan. The portfolio, valued at a 1.0 times price‑to‑net‑asset‑value, delivers an 89.4% occupancy rate and a forecast distribution yield...
Claims that the world is “well supplied with oil” during a Hormuz crisis are obviously false @SecScottBessent With 35% of maritime oil flows offline, your comments are at best out-of-touch with reality. At worst, they're lies #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar #Geopolitics
Map of average diesel prices by market (updated each morning). SFO has the highest at $5.96/gallon https://t.co/DgH7FMrsx0
MSCI stock index gains have halved to a 7% year‑to‑date increase, while JP Morgan’s local and hard‑currency corporate and sovereign bonds are up about 1% YTD. The escalating Israel‑US versus Iran war is drawing parallels to the Russia‑Ukraine conflict’s global market...
U.S. natural gas 12-month spread narrowed $0.15 (24%) on higher front-month price May contract rose $0.32 (11%) from $2.88 to $3.20 week ending March 6 Front-month price increased $0.33 (11%) from $2.86 to $3.19 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG
The National Inventory is expected to turn negative at some point this year, and the percentage of price cuts is lower compared to last year. Whoever you're getting your housing info from, I would question them about this. https://t.co/AHHEytiMoR
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
“An interesting thing I heard is that some Japanese Portfolio Managers are being actively told company-wide not to touch anything software or IT related in the broad sense, at all” - @InvestInJapan
Since 1950: U.S. home prices increased 89% Average appreciation 4–5% annually Hold real estate longer.
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid surge in urea prices, prompting sell‑side analysts to recommend buying North American nitrogen producers such as CF Industries, Nutrien and Mosaic. The logic hinged on the fact that roughly...
#SPX: The McClellan Oscillator has reached levels where price action begins to form a bounce, including the August 2024 Carry Trade selloff and the 2025 Tariff Crash.
If you are a long-short equity fund thinking about ways to adopt an agentic approach, I encourage you to think about building a systematic short book. 1) Good shorts tend to rhyme more than good longs and and so are fertile...
USDCAD encountered firm resistance around the 1.3750 mark, prompting a pullback that resulted in its second consecutive weekly decline. The price weakness coincided with escalating strikes across the Middle East, which have amplified global risk aversion. An Elliott Wave assessment...
Microsoft rallied 4.1% amid AI optimism, while Apple fell 2.5% and Alphabet dropped 4.25% as macro and legal pressures weighed on the Magnificent 7. The S&P 500 slipped 1.98% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.24% for the week, with the VIX spiking 27.5%...
Kuwait’s state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude output and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down oil exports amid escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The firm issued a force majeure...
The $VIX: $VXV ratio spiked to 1.07 on Friday. That's the biggest volatility spike since the April 2025 crash low. Last March it had an initial spike to 1.08, dropped to 0.90, then spiked to 1.27 in April, but this...
Stocks Bitcoin Real Estate Businesses Private Equity Buy talent Invest in skillsets/education Provide value to marketplace Income to passive investments Aggressively maximize the tax code That’s my blueprint to $100M. Don’t overcomplicate the game.
Jeff Bezos highlighted Amazon Web Services as a "market size unconstrained" business in his 2014 shareholder letter, emphasizing strong returns on capital. After the letter, AWS disclosed mid‑20s operating margins that rose to roughly 30% by 2021, with ROIC consistently...
Market stress is surging at a rapid pace: The spread between the average 9-month volatility of S&P 500 stocks and the S&P 500 index's 9-month volatility is up to 18 points, the highest since 2008. This spread has DOUBLED over the last...
$MSFT - After almost hitting its 200 week MA last week we had a bullish reversal this week so I don't expect it to hit the 200 week MA anymore in March. An intermediate term low is probably in but...
Gap Inc. closed fiscal 2025 with net sales of $15.4 billion, a 2% increase, and an operating margin of 7.3%, the highest in 25 years. The retailer generated $1.3 billion in operating cash flow and announced a $1 billion share‑repurchase authorization. This performance...
Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
One interesting thing I noticed in Friday’s EOD option chain for Nifty50 (10 Mar expiry)...🤔 >> Look at the marked Option, closing around ₹439.85. Based on basic OTM risk premium / volatility structure, this option’s theoretical fair value appears much higher... >>...
Kuwait's state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude production and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz became effectively closed following U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran. In February, Kuwait produced 2.59 million barrels per day, with...
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...
VIX closed at its highest since the Apr'25 tariff (and above the +1 StD level).
"That's why we have these vacant lots, if you get rid of that (free parking) and find a median price for parking where it's kind of expensive you can then build buildings there and people will live there." - @bertkreischer ...
My market timing calls on dollar, yields, oil, gold/silver, bitcoin & equities (esp growth to value rotation) can help even the best-of-the-best. 🙏
We should be getting the national seasonal inventory increase soon, but if, for some reason, that doesn't happen, we will have negative year-over-year inventory data by the end of March or Early April Note: For the worse than 2008 crowd...
The war in Iran has caused the biggest disruption in oil production in history. Whether it becomes the long-feared “nightmare scenario” for energy markets (and the global economy) now depends on the duration of the conflict. My @FT column: https://t.co/uKMsVXBCQY
Israel’s inflation is 1.8%/yr. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.1%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/CWltetUlYU
Since my client warning, VIX has risen 70%. and because I warned two weeks ahead that IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN, clients got to take full advantage of every dollar of the largest weekly gain on record in data going...
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon prices slide amid low operating rates #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/JsM63FU7l1
Mexico’s inflation is 3.8%/yr. Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 9.2%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/jQ05GUvmPW
Look at how much US AI supercomputer cluster capacity was planned for/installed in UAE and Saudi Have not seen any strategists discuss yet what this means for US v. China AI race Seems important. Thoughts? https://t.co/23plcm9k0V
The Crude Oil ETF spiked 33% over the last week, the biggest weekly gain in its history. This was a 6-sigma event, which (assuming a normal distribution) is only supposed to occur once every 4,039,906 years. So we shouldn't see another spike...
No Place To Hide.... 10 of the 11 Equal Weight $SPY sectors were down this week. 9 of 11 down more than 1%...... https://t.co/tpTJaIDGL3
High yield credit (HYG) down 0.5% on March 6th. When junk bonds sell off alongside equities, it means credit markets are sniffing out real economic stress, not just a volatility event. Watch HYG. It leads. Always. https://t.co/HpbzOsBALw
Only two sectors green on March 6th: Consumer Staples (+0.4%) and Energy (+0.2%). Tech -2.1%. Discretionary -1.8%. Financials -1.3%. When people buy Cheerios and oil but sell everything else, you're not in a growth scare. You're in a survival trade. https://t.co/8RrBLVWIBN
Sentiment extremes often precede reversals - but it's never as easy as it sounds. See IGV from Jan-Feb.
Here is an interview I did recently: The Systematic Trading Blueprint with Steve Burns https://t.co/EX1CEF4BPd
GS equity sentiment still near the flat line.. can't take much signal from that https://t.co/ySSxmcNywv
