Middle East Conflict Spikes Oil, Lifts Dollar, Drags Dow
Further to the prior post: A classic initial market reaction to this weekend’s eruption of military conflict in the Middle East: Oil has surged over 10%, the Dollar has strengthened, and Dow futures have opened down some 500 points. #economy #markets #oil #stocks #fx
Brent Climbs 9% and Gold Jumps $120 per Ounce
Update from the set. Brent up 9%, prices up across the futures curve. Gold up by about $120/ounce, also up across the curve https://t.co/UX9X5ChFfK
S&P 500 Advance/Decline Line Reaches New High, Signals Strength
The S&P 500's advance/decline line hit a new high on Friday. I'm pretty old fashioned, but I still think that is a good sign. https://t.co/6slLIZINHZ
Crude Jumps 8% As
Not a terribly surprising open. Crude up 8%. SPooz off 1% and USTs up solidly bid but selling into best levels.
Tight Bollinger Bands Signal Potential Upside Volatility
Futures open down only 1% for the S&P 500. Bollinger Bands are about as tight as they've been in years. The spring is coiling. How many think it'll be volatility to the upside? https://t.co/QMWz06txWk
S&P 500 Near 100‑Day MA, Futures Slip 1%
S&P 500 had been holding the 100-day moving average. That level 6831 now. Futures down 1% at 6815. Let’s see if we get a close below there. https://t.co/rCkhL5PUZi
Oil Prices Surge: Brent Up 9%, WTI Up 8%
Brent crude oil +9% to $79 WTI crude oil +8% to $72 RBOB gasoline futures +5% to $2.42 https://t.co/Z7uoT3rHYZ
Nearly One‑Fifth of California Property Transfers Are Inherited
Wild stat: “~18% of all property transfers in California last year were made through inheritance.” https://t.co/LPI84VU4Uh https://t.co/oHzRbjVzOn
Aussie 10s
Aussie 10s have on average traded 67bps cheap to UST 10s over the past few weeks. Currently trading 4.58 which suggest UST 10s should open around 3.91, 3 bps richer (that's like 6-7 ticks)
Asia Signals Risk Aversion; Oil and Gold Poised Higher
Early market signals Monday in Asia: risk aversion & flight to safe havens, stocks set to open down. Oil and gold come online in 20 minutes, both will see substantial upside. Update then https://t.co/IwRjfptbHJ
Oil Prices Set to Drop, Fueling Roaring 2020s
YARDENI: “.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies .. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring...
Success Hinges on Cash, Growth, and Capital Returns
What do the most successful companies have in common? They all excel in these three critical areas 1️⃣ Strong, predictable cash generation 2️⃣ Attractive growth opportunities 3️⃣ High returns on capital
Invest $145 Weekly, Retire with $1.4 M
The Roth IRA limit is $7,500 for 2026. That's $145/week. If you invest $145/week in an S&P 500 index fund for 30 years, you'll spend $225,000 of your own money. But at retirement you should have $1.4 million. That’s the power of compound interest.
Free Cash Flow Conversion Reveals True Economic Profit
"Free cash flow conversion separates accounting profits from economic profits." Most profits are fiction. Cash is truth. 💸 Free cash flow conversion separates accounting profits from real economic value — and serious investors know the difference.
Estimated $18/Bbl Risk Premium for March 1 Oil Opening
GS: Taking Into Account Estimated Weekend Market Pricing, We Estimate a Risk Premium of Around $18/bbl on the March 1st Oil Market Open https://t.co/vtpc8AfijE
Modest Payroll Gains, Slight Un
NFP, Retail Sales Fri GS thinks +45k headline payrolls, +45k private, UR ticks up to 4.4% +0.5% Jan core Retail Sales https://t.co/EbcNES5A55
Texas, Florida, California Lead; Who Ranks Fourth?
The biggest three states for existing home sales are 1. Texas 2. Florida 3. California Who is #4?
Leverage Drives Carry Trade; Watch Yen in Market Shocks
The carry trade has everything to do with leverage. And I encourage you to study Yen behavior during US stock market tail events.
Geopolitical Tensions Push USD, Gold, and Oil Higher
The old geopolitical playbook (USD up, gold up, oil up, bond yields down, stocks down) is on for now.
US Housing Market Splits Amid Ongoing Weather Impacts
Another shocking example of the divided US housing market. I believe a lot of this is still showing weather effects from early in the month. But still... https://t.co/Ze7mUcxJS4
Crisis Mode Returns: US‑Israel Strikes Ignite Market Volatility
Markets are back in crisis mode with the US–Israel strikes on Iran dominating headlines: global risk assets are reacting, oil prices are spiking, and S&P volatility is alive. Join us LIVE at 6pm EST as we break down how ES futures...
Foreign Investors Pour $1.55 Trillion Into USD, Defying “Sell America” Myths
Foreign investors poured a net $1.55 TRILLION into USD assets last year, up 31.4% from 2024. The oft repeated “Sell America” and “End of King Dollar” narratives don’t align with the facts. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the...
Iran's Inaccurate Missiles Threaten Jerusalem's Sacred Sites
The Islamic Regime in Iran is recklessly firing missiles/drones at Jerusalem, despite well documented accuracy limitations in parts of its ballistic missile arsenal. Jerusalem is home to more than 1 million people and contains sacred sites of three religions: the...
AI Finds Coupons, Saves $100 in Minutes
Was buying a small grill for outside. Used AI and said “find me coupons for this brand” It found a “BLACKDOGBBQ20” coupon code for 20% off Easy $100 in savings for 5 minutes of effort Use AI to search coupons whenever you are buying...
Commodities Surge, Euro Slides: Brace for Volatile Open
IG pricing US Crude up around $10 to $77.26 Gold up around $111 to $5,385 EURUSD down 64 pips to 1.1751 Strap in. This is going to be a wild open.
Failed Signals Reveal Profitable Entry Points
🚨 I stopped losing money when I learned this one concept: Failed signals are the BEST signals. 🔄 Buy signal dies? Wait for the candle to close through the low. Go short. 📉 Sell signal dies? Wait for the candle to close through...
Nasdaq Ex‑Tech Hits Record Highs Across All Timeframes
I know the Nasdaq with no Tech is like having Kool-aid, no sugar. Peanut butter, no jelly. Ham, no burger (Daaamn). But the Nasdaq Ex-Tech just closed at new all-time high on a daily, weekly and monthly closing basis. https://t.co/3ASLrrLbLk
Built $500K Portfolio by Age 36
I'm 36 with $500K invested. Most of this happened in the last 8 years. Here's how:
CBA Flags AI‑generated Loan Fraud, Alerts Authorities
Leaving this here “It comes as CBA..grapples w/the onset of AI technologies. The bank in the midst of rolling out AI systems across its business banking, communications & fraud-detection operations. In March 2025, CBA invested in AI firm Anthropicto drive...
SOFI's Explosive Growth Undermined by Inflation Fears
$SOFI - Lending Revenue $267M ➡️ $1.85B - Tech Platform $0 ➡️ $450M - Financial Services $1M ➡️ $1.54B - Members 652K ➡️ 13.65M - Lending Originations $11.7B ➡️ $36.4B But sure, sell the stock because inflation is a bit higher, or you don't like the...
Lease Incentives Impact Yield and Refinancing Strategy
Retail landlords: TI vs. Free Rent isn’t just negotiation — it’s balance sheet strategy. TI = upfront capital out. Free rent = delayed income. Both reduce effective yield. But they affect refinancing and liquidity differently. In today’s lending environment, structure matters more than optics. If you’re...
New Chart Sets Market Direction for Coming Months
Chart of the week More important than Gold or Crude Oil More important than Iran or any other "Trumped-up" event This chart will set the tone for financial markets for months to come https://t.co/pw41RjkqT7
Tel Aviv Index Rallies: 11‑Month Streak After Historic Dip
That’s 11 straight up months for Israel’s Tel Aviv 125 Index, and 19 of the last 20. The October 2023 capitulation turned out to be one of the greatest buying opportunities in stock market history. https://t.co/S7CKED4mYT
US Iran Strike Could Redefine Market Risk Profile
I delayed - and rewrote a few times - my week ahead article. Finally posted up (and here are some of the charts that I speak to): Will US Strike on Iran Change the Market’s Risk Profile? https://t.co/UZu6CPkjrl https://t.co/1Kccta89jL
Expanding Volatility Signals Upcoming Continuation Setups
4 out of 5 signals nailed in NQ Friday 🔥 Balanced market. Flat VWAP. Clean rotations between deviation bands. But this week? Volatility expanding = continuation setups likely take over. Comment VWAP and I’ll send you the free Discord link 👇 #vwap #futurestrading #tradingstrategy
Using AVWAP High as Stop for NUKZ Breakout
$NUKZ - Watching the nuclear...honestly don't mind jumping the breakout using the former AVWAP high as my stop. https://t.co/pCzEAhWYxc
Kalshi Predicts 95% Chance Oil Hits $73+ Tomorrow
Kalshi prediction markets currently see a 95% likelihood that U.S. crude oil hits at least $73 per barrel or more tomorrow. U.S. crude closed at $67.02 per barrel on Friday https://t.co/CKqpj0YQcp
US and Israel Intensify Strikes to Dismantle Iran's Security
American and Israeli forces are showing no sign of letting up in their attacks on Iranian targets. A complete liquidation of the country's security apparatus is the clear goal. Watch the full video analysis and access daily coverage of the Iran...
SPX Expected to Hold Above 6522, Target 40‑Week MA
$SPX - The next 16 week cycle low is due in the 2nd week of March(March 9-13). In my opinion it's unlikely to drop to the November low at 6522. The probable target is the 40 week MA that closed...
Geopolitical Shock Hits Markets as New Ayatollah Dies
This is like Hezbollah redux Don't forget markets open at 6PM NY I am trading it live https://t.co/YkhvV47IGa
India Hedges Bets, Deepens Ties with EU, Japan, Brazil, Canada
By deepening ties with the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Canada, India is WISELY HEDGING ITS GEOPOLITICAL BETS. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY PREVAILS AGAIN. https://t.co/TfGLoGF8lA
CEOs Become Risk Chiefs, Blame AI, Term Spread Narrows
🆓 Sunday links: CEO as Chief Risk Officer, blaming AI for job cuts, and the shrinking term spread. https://t.co/4BDeewwVe5 chart: https://t.co/nJv6ecVuec https://t.co/rixP9PqbVA
Quick Iran Conflict Could Cap Gold and Oil Gains
US-Israel Invasion of Iran May Cap Crude and Gold - Gold and crude oil may show signs of peaking if the conflict is quick and infrastructure isn't impaired. Both were up about 20% in 2026 before Feb. 28. If typical swift...
Strategic Allocation Up 7.7% YTD, Tactical 4.3% YTD
Weekly Market Report: Weekend Wars. Strategic allocation +7.7% YTD, Tactical allocation +4.3% YTD. More details and some free access in the link in reply below. 👇 $SPY $VEU $GLD $TLT https://t.co/gZFEG6wHe1
Micro‑Cap Index Hits Record High Amid Weak Market
The market is so weak and turning so defensive that the Micro-cap Index is now up for ten consecutive months, and just closed the month at the highest level in history. https://t.co/R0UyyR24z2
Oil Spike Threatens Stocks Like 1990s Gulf War
A sharp oil spike to those levels would likely result in a one-variable stock market like we initially saw during the 1990’s Persian Gulf War. Stocks under pressure until oil prices come back down. https://t.co/8DQZhDYXqo
Tight Index Range Masks Historic Market Dispersion
In this episode, we sit down with Piper’s Head of Options Strategy, Danny Kirsch to unpack one of the most unusual market environments in decades. The index has traded in a tight range, yet beneath that stability we’re seeing historic...
Banks Fund Real Estate, Not Stocks—Choose Property
If stocks were the best path to wealth, banks would loan you 80% to buy them. They don’t. But they will for real estate. That should tell you something.
NYT Stock Smashes Monthly Candle, Hits All‑Time High
Talk about a company that just keeps on winning. This monthly candlestick in New York Times was more than 20 points wide and still went out at the highs, with Friday marking a new all-time high close for NYT 👀...
Prophet Strategy Surges 1,982% Since 2008 Launch
On the day we launched Prophet publicly in December 2024, it was already up 1,640% from the date the strategy was first implemented in Dec '08. Now it's up 1,982% -- or ~20% since Dec '24. But the best is...