Energy Leads YTD; Financials and Bitcoin Lag
Brent & WTI crude oil leading YTD, Energy strong, gold hanging in there Financials & bitcoin weakest https://t.co/B5BLF2EwNT
Markets Crash Hard; Stick to Strategy and Keep Cash
During Dot Com crash (2000-2002) the S&P 500 dropped ~49%. During Financial Crisis (2007-2009) market dropped ~57%. During 1973-1974 bear market, it dropped 48%. We don’t just go up all the time. During bad times, you have to stick to your job &...
VIX, GLD Skew Reveal Iran‑China Geopolitical Link
Honored to be on with @JermalChandler and @TraderMikeyB to discuss $VIX $GLD skew why #Iran is about #China https://t.co/N4yZ7QkrnI
Lack of Surplus Forces You to Recycle Savings
If you are constantly sending money to your savings account and then two business days later, you have to move that money back into your checking account because something came up, that is usually not a discipline problem. Most of...
IEA Warns Hormuz Crisis Could Trigger Historic Oil Disruption
‘The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market’: IEA’s take on the Hormuz crisis https://t.co/H9zKo9tCi4
Stocks Dip, Bitcoin Gains Strength; Risk‑off Could Reverse BTC
Stocks are pressing new lows while Bitcoin is quietly building relative strength. If we get a full risk-off cascade, don’t expect BTC to hang in there, but more chop for stocks and this can grind higher. 📺...
Risk‑Off Signals Rise, Yet Core Market Levels Hold
Today felt like a textbook risk-off session. Weak GDP revision. VIX back above 20. Short-term breadth rolling over. Dollar up. Rates pushing toward 4.3%. Oil surging. In CHART THIS I walk through what’s actually changing — and what isn’t. Six viewer questions. Clear levels. No drama. Watch...
Fed Independence Now Secured by Courts, Not Norms
The Fed won a sweeping court victory Friday. But the fact that it needed one tells you everything about how much has changed. The unsealed filings are something else—the Fed catalogued 100 Trump attacks on Powell and told a court...
Growing HSA to $6k with Yearly $1k Boost
Slowly building this HSA account almost at $6,000 one of the best account. Also every year increasing it to have $1000 extra till I max. Right now $4000 my portion and employer put $1000.
S&P 500 P/E Drops as Earnings Climb, Prices Stall
GS: The S&P 500 P/E multiple has declined as prices have moved sideways alongside rising earnings https://t.co/igjAW12exM
Growth or Oil Shock Could Cripple S&P 500
GS: A moderate growth shock could see the S&P 500 drop to 6300, while a severe oil supply shock could trigger a 19% decline to 5400. https://t.co/87Poznn4vR
Debating Bear Market or Small‑Cap Financial Squeeze?
Do you believe this is a new bear market? Or are you buying small-cap financials down here for a squeeze higher? https://t.co/uDCoOUiDlO
10% Brent Rise Lifts SXXP EPS Growth 2%
GS Europe: A 10pp rise in Brent boosts SXXP annual EPS growth by 2pp, but lower growth would be an offset https://t.co/9uumqz15iG
2022 Marks Strong Earnings Revisions for STOXX Europe 600
Surprising..2022 was one of the best recent years in terms of upward earnings revisions for the STOXX Europe 600 GS https://t.co/6EHs3OPXa8
War Disruption Drives Hawkish Stance Across G10 Central Banks
New weekly drops. The war's disruption shapes the investment climate. Hawkish holds by seven of the 8 G10 central banks that meet. RBA could hike. Brazil had indicated a cut before the war. Still seems reasonable....
Treasury Yields Surge, Inflation Concerns Resurface
"Inflation isn't a problem at all." Ten Year Treasury Yield: "Hold my beer." 🍺 One of the biggest shifts from February to March? $TNX bounced of support at 4.0% as rates move higher as prices appear to be 📈. https://t.co/Y10UC0y7lL
US‑Iran Conflict Slashes Market Breadth Across All Caps
Since the start of the US-Iran war, breadth has deteriorated sharply across large, mid, and small caps.
Oil Prices Unfazed by Massive Supply Shock
Brent above $100. WTI near $99. Strait of Hormuz shut. 20% of global oil at risk. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves — the largest ever. And it barely moved the needle. $WTI $USO https://t.co/Ue451KrbMz
Retail Investors Overleveraged, Flooding NVDA Call Market
Reality: most of these post-pandemic "Retail Investor" bulls just play a levered (fully loaded with options) game chasing the same stocks Despite the "get out" $NVDA Signal we issued this week, look at how many WEEKLY $NVDA $185 Calls traded...
S&P 500 Near 50% Concentration with AI, Space Titans
S&P 500 Concentration Approaching 50%.. if Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are added. Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YBjnkn0aXw
Kick Off Weekend with In‑Depth Talk Featuring Molly Jong
Begin your weekend by joining me for a long chat with Molly Jong-Fast about *all this*. https://t.co/upeUqKge1T
Great Returns Can Hide Dangerous Stock Concentration
François Rochon is a well known investment manager who has compounded at ~15% annualized for 30 years (!) In 2002 though he was much more obscure. A single stock was 20% of his portfolio. Below he shares his thoughts on...
Dollar Index Breaks High, Signals Strong 2027 Trend
$DXY - Broke out above its November high. The 3 year cycle low is confirmed. The Dollar is headed higher into 2027. The question is will the current cycle be a not so bullish cycle like the last one, or...
Middle East War Drives Policy Swings as G10 Banks Convene
Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves: The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy…...
Market Fear Matches 2022 Levels Despite Complacency
How big is the market fear factor? The 4 charts on the left show what's going on in spot markets. The 4 on the right show options markets. Compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine 4 years ago, we're now at...
Silver Poised Above 20‑week MA, Limited Upside
$Silver - I expect it to hit the 20 week MA again next week or the following week. If it holds above the 20 week MA it will likely move higher into late April but not make a new ATH....
Nasdaq Tests Key 22,080 Support, Risks Drop to 20,500
The Nasdaq Composite is currently testing a crucial weekly support zone near the 22,080 mark. A breakdown here could open the doors for a deeper correction towards 20,500, making this a pivotal moment for tech equities. Dive into Rohit's complete...
Gold Holds Above 10‑Week MA, Eyes April ATH
$Gold - Closed lower for a 2nd week in a row but it's still above the 10 week MA. As long as it's above the 10 week MA this is likely to be another consolidation that will lead to a...
War Spikes Hedging While Markets Stay Oddly Complacent
As war escalates, markets look complacent. The S&P 500 is barely down and USD is up only a bit. But hedging activity in options markets is picking up a lot. That's most pronounced for oil (top left), but it's also...
Holding, Not Overtrading, Beats Clever Market Timing
Stupid investors make more money than you. Why? Because they don’t try to outsmart the market. Most people are constantly trading in and out. Reacting to every headline and thinking they’re being clever. But my biggest win came from being "stupid": I bought Palantir at $7. Selling...
Focus, Specialize, and Limit Setups to Profit
Don’t be a jack-of-all-trades but master of none. Specialize in one strategy. Pick one asset class. Focus on 1 to 5 charts. Define your trading timeframe. Trade 1–4 setups. Stay patient. That’s where the money is made.
LPG Tankers Cross Hormuz After Tehran‑Delhi Talks
One-off or sign of easing? Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi....
Oil Shocks Ripple Through Every Product, Exposing Economic Vulnerability
Why oil shocks still hit everything we buy. “We should be very concerned, the longer the conflict lasts, the more prices will rise and ripple through the economy.” From petrol to plastics, another fossil fuel crisis shows how exposed economies remain...
India’s Crude Basket Shows Persistent Historical Volatility
Crude has been a rough player in the past too, in India. Our average crude basket, yearly, looks like this : https://t.co/vC7nJ09nnd
Iran Shifts Oil Payments to Yuan, Undermining Dollar Dominance
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
US LNG Demand Soars, Venture Global Expands Plant
MORE US LNG EXPORTS 🇺🇸 🚢 Venture Global will move forward with an $8.6 billion expansion of its third LNG plant in Louisiana Global demand for US LNG is surging as the war in the Middle East cuts off shipments from...
Preparing Today for Next Week's Nifty Outlook
This is what we are going to do today to prepare for next week. Nifty outlook for the week month or year ahead. https://t.co/3heCkFAHQ1
Oil Shocks Lift Risk Premiums, Weaken Markets, Curb Inflation
Risk premium rising across equities and credit while intraday correlation between oil and equities around -80%. Oil shocks push the tide out and expose underlying weak links. The peak in oil in June 2022 explained the first low in markets...
Gold and Stocks Tumble as Treasuries Rebound Begins
Gold selling off with stocks is necessary now for Treasuries to return. And this is playing out exactly as I argued it would. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade.
Five Years Renting Cost Him Higher Mortgage Rates
Rate were under 3% in 2021 and now over 6 What did 5 years of renting really get him
Gold Set to Outperform Amid Oil Crisis
Frank Holmes: Why Gold Could Be the Biggest Winner of the Oil Crisis https://t.co/1FnUMR2dSZ via @USFunds
Oil’s Gold Ratio Stagnates, Signaling Higher Resource Prices
Despite the recent rally, oil priced in gold has barely budged. That puts into perspective how undervalued oil may still be. And no, this is not negative for gold. If anything, it reinforces the idea that we are entering an era of structurally...
Gold’s Safe‑Haven Appeal Fading: Overlooked Factor Emerging
Is the gold rush over? The safe haven appeal seems to be fizzling out in gold and silver, the reason is probably something most are overlooking.
Japanese Builders Accelerate U.S. Homebuilder Acquisitions
WOW. ANOTHER ONE. Japanese builders are rapidly acquiring U.S. homebuilders—striking their third deal in a month This week, Japan-based Hajime Construction agreed to buy Utah-based Wright Homes My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/FgJwjNewbx
White House Admits Plan: Bomb Kharg Island Amid Hormuz Closure
OK, I suppose we should admit the White House was right, and, all along, they did have a plan to deal with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bomb Kharg Island.
Buffett & Munger Reveal True Cost of Equity
Most investors misunderstand the cost of equity. Below is the most explicit Buffett has ever been on his cost of equity... BUT the real insights come from Charlie Munger's push back and Buffett's Punch Card Idea ⬇️Link⬇️
Markets Stay Optimistic Despite Unprecedented Oil Volume Shock
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook https://t.co/QsizGVkoI5 Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is unprecedented...
Value Stocks Outperform Even in AI-Driven Market
Value investing is alive and well. The indices (S&P & Russell) have cap, sector and factor-selection biases that mask the performance of classic investment strategies. Buying a cross-sectional (sector-neutral basket) of cheap stocks has outperformed over time, and even during...
Mortgage Rates
Rate locks between 6.20% - 6.35% corrinadting with positive purchase application data and weekly pending sales all year long, so far, yes. At 6.41% today is the first day that pricing is above the September 17th, 2025 data point https://t.co/lqWqldYe3s
US Oil Prices Spike Above $99, Market Control Falters
US oil prices surge above $99/barrel, now up nearly +10% on the week. Once again, the US appears to be losing control of the oil market.