Equal‑Weighted S&P 500 Beats Mag 7 Amid Market Dip
The chart below shows that the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the Mag 7 by 12% over the past 3 months. The last time that happened was in the fall of 2024, and the time before was the spring of 2021. Since the Mag 7 started dominating the scene, bullish broadenings have been rare, with most periods of equal-weight outperformance occurring in down markets.
Bull Market Still Strong, Yet Flattening Into Picks‑and‑Shovels
Another week, another headline bombshell. Such has been the norm during the past year or so. But charts are charts, and there is a lot we can learn from them in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. What do...
Unexpected $LE Dip, but Solid IRR Outlook Before Q4 Earnings
Surprised to see $LE dip so much the past few days. No news afaict. I'm not allocating more here presently given current size, but seems a solid expected IRR special situation as we approach the 4Q earnings where presumably management...
Hegseth Threatens to Label Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk
There's a word for this. Starts with an F. "Hegseth said he could label [Anthropic] a supply-chain risk, a move typically reserved for companies linked to adversaries, or invoke the Defense Production Act to force the company to work with the...
High‑Momentum Tech Overvalued, Risky If Market Weakens
Tech momentum is stretched. If macro weakens or earnings disappoint, crowded high-momentum tech could unwind quickly. This chart shows the performance and valuation of a high-minus-low (H–L) momentum factor within Russell 1000 Tech. Top Panel: H–L Momentum = Long Q1 (top momentum...
Big‑Ticket Sales Rise 1.3% Amid Discretionary Weakness
$HD Big Ticket ($1,000+) Transaction Comps "Big ticket comp transactions were +1.3%... We were pleased with the performance we saw in categories such as power, plumbing and electrical. However, larger discretionary projects remain under pressure." https://t.co/m5NwpVXZPR
UTG Dividend Yield Slips to 7.6% After Sharp Drop
After the big drop today, ShareScope now showing fwd Dividend Yield 7.7% FALLING to 7.6% for #UTG
Ritholtz Launches First Trend-Following ETF: A Watchlist Pick
Interesting… Ritholtz filing for first ETF. Trend following strategy. I like the Goaltending name/concept (a la Granny Shots another bball metaphor). Ben and Mike are the PMs. One to watch.
IRDM Dominates the Global LEO Satellite Market
$IRDM continuing off that strong base. These guys are the only global low earth orbit (LEO) satellite company. Big name in the space race.
Leveraged ETFs Fees Rising, Unaffected by Vanguard Effect
Leveraged ETFs: The Last Stronghold of the 1% Fee.. check out how the asset-weighted avg fee of 2x ETFs is actually going UP. Only category totally immune from Vanguard Effect, which explains the $1b in ann revenue and the torrent...
Macro Data Flaws, Bots Favor Bad News, Calendar Strategies
🔬 Research links: the problem with macro data, why bots love bad news, and how to use calendar-based strategies. https://t.co/gUmyuaWsPO chart: https://t.co/9NGWAEXTU1 https://t.co/QufnB6WSHu
Yield Curve Shifts From 2023 Inversion to 2025 Flattening
Chart shows the shape and evolution of the yield curve (3-Month Treasury yields (blue) and 10-Year Treasury yields (red)) from Feb 2023 to Feb 2026. It's been a wild ride from the extreme inversion in 2023 to normalization beginning Q4 2025....
Mag 7 Forward P/S Ratio Returns to 2021 Peak
Mag 7 forward price/sales ratio now back to the 2021 peak of ~7.1. * 2013–2020 average ≈ ~3.8–4.2x * Including bubble years (2020–2021 + 2024–2025) average ≈ ~4.5x https://t.co/AfvDJpv0iW
Weekly Sector Ratio Grids Reveal Top GIC Performers
a weekly glance at my @Optuma sector ratio grids which compare the performance of each of the 11 GICs sectors against the others... #SectorWatch left: 3-month % change right: 1-month % change https://t.co/JSBqVZnPwL
Pullbacks Signal Buying Chance Before 5% S&P Drop
“Markets are at a tactical–fundamental crossroads. Historically these conflicting signals precede >5% S&P 500 drawdowns. Pullbacks are opportunities to add thematic exposure. A clearer equity “index” upturn should follow once policy catalysts materialise lower mortgage rates via falling UST yields,...
Long‑horizon Investing Can Generate Its Own Alpha
For decades, long-term investing has been treated as a vague virtue rather than a distinct source of returns. Turns out long-horizon thinking may actually translate into its own source of alpha. by @ebasilico https://t.co/wIUJpxYujR https://t.co/d3aF2IAeAT
Boomers Command 45% Spending, 74% Wealth—Shaping Markets
Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: https://t.co/tnQSK0khDB https://t.co/7BBPkFGnml
Leverage Could Shift Infrastructure Leadership Amid Stable Rates
Infrastructure may be the most crowded “safe” trade in markets. Consensus says utilities lag in a growth cycle. Leverage flips that narrative. If rates stabilize, leadership may rotate where few are looking. Read: https://t.co/GYU4HseCXx
Unpredictable Trades, Not Routine Patterns, Drive Outperformance
“…its limits may be more revealing than its success. The trades the system failed to anticipate — roughly 29% — were, on average, more closely associated with outperformance. In other words, the activity that falls outside routine, detectable investment patterns...
SPAC IPO of $
I hadn't realized that $OWL came public via SPAC. It's now right back to its original price. Turns out it was all priced in. EMH undefeated https://t.co/Q6eyG9hYLM
Bitcoin ETF Flows up $55B, Still #5 Overall
Yes, altho if you look at flows since Jan 2024 it STILL ranks #5 overall (only superhuman Vgrd ETFs did more), even after all this destruction. All told bitcoin ETF flows are still net net +$55b altho you'll be hard-pressed...
AI Trade Rotates: Data and Distribution Lead Next Phase
The AI trade isn’t peaking. It’s rotating. Leadership is shifting from chips to control of data + distribution. Most will chase yesterday’s winners. The next phase is structural. Read before consensus catches up: https://t.co/PmCr4t3wZc @ckaiwu @Mela_Schaffer
Market Fueled by Doomers and Boomers, Says Nomura
Charlie McElligott at Nomura says that the market is being driven by 'Doomers and Boomers' https://t.co/PbuzHGo8VF
ETF Inflows Hit $304B, Doubling Record Pace
ETF inflows up to $304b YTD, which is DOUBLE the all-time record pace from last year. $VOO at $30b, also ahead of its record pace by 6b while Vanguard as whole is already at $100b, a $3b/day pace, and double...
Apple Becomes Modern Two‑Year Note, Rallies on Risk‑Off
Pretty cool that $AAPL has become the two year note of the modern age. Risk off equals appl rally.
Consumer Staples Outvalue Netflix on Forward P/E
Forward P/E Ratios... Colgate $CL: 23.4x Proctor & Gamble $PG: 22.5x Netflix $NFLX: 19.9x 🤔 https://t.co/3B4ig8yjTW
Avoid the Rotation Trade: Dow Signals Reversal
It is a Big Trap - Avoid the Rotation trade The rotation trade is making the rounds on social media, but this trend is based on what worked in 2025 and might not work in 2026. Dow theory suggests it...
Stick to Your Process, Not the Market Noise
i'd like to think i've learned a lot about investing over the years... there were times that i was very discouraged as profits disappeared and/or losses grew... it happens so fast... there've been times of great excitement & enthusiasm, which have coincided...
Apple’s 2026 Lead Threatened by Priced‑In Expectations
Everyone assumes Apple’s lead is secure. But 2026 may test that narrative. Leadership isn’t about new products. It’s about what’s already priced in. Expectations are the real risk. Read closely: https://t.co/L377mvJehE @willrhind @graniteshares
S&P and NYSE Median Stocks Outpace Nasdaq Median
The median stock in the S&P500 Index is up 6.7% so far in 2026. The median stock on the NYSE (> $300M Market-cap) is up 6.3% YTD. Meanwhile, the median stock in the Nasdaq100 Index is up 1.3%, while the...
Winning Stock Picking Means Knowing When to Sell
Successful stock picking isn’t just picking winners. It also means picking out the losers in your portfolio. The greatest advantage in public markets is “You can sell”. But you must know when to sell. https://t.co/iL6AHqtOyR
Core PCE Goods Over 2% Inflation Trending Upward
The number of core goods in the PCE basket with >2% inflation is clearly on the rise https://t.co/zfnw5c3Qnr
National Bank of Canada Cuts MSTR Stake by Half
National Bank of Canada just sold 1.04M MSTR shares valued at $127.8M. Now holds 1M shares worth $122.7M. https://t.co/w8ishlNKSE
TPX Raises Guidance, Still Cheap Yet Unheld
#TPX raised Guidance and says has momentum. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 9.3 falling to 7.9; could be cheap still. I don't hold.
BTG Meets Expectations, Dividend up, but I Stay Out
#BTG (used to be #BEG ) "in line with expectations". "Challenging" backdrop helping them. ShareScope has fwd p/e 10.8 falling to 10.2 with fwd Divvy 3.8% rising to 4%; lot to like. I don't hold.
AI Boom Keeps Payroll Flat, Cuts Original Workers
The software industry's payroll has been flat since ChatGPT launched. The AI productivity boom may be eliminating the workers who created it first. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/xRx5vLZILo
AI Winners Will Be Infrastructure, Not Software
AI winners aren’t who you think. Dell’s margin shift changes the AI narrative. Infrastructure, not software, may drive the next leg of leadership. Most investors are looking the wrong way. Read this: https://t.co/nY4GbIKIfM @graniteshares @willrhind
AMC's $10K Debt Revives Bankruptcy Risk
$AMC 10K firmly puts bankruptcy back on the table. To quote: In order to achieve net positive cash flows from operating activities, revenues will need to increase from current levels to levels at least in line with pre-COVID-19 revenues. However, there...
SNDA Announces Major Merger and Massive PSU Grant
As a friend dm'd me, $SNDA just pulled the "Andrew Walker" special (big merger followed by a massive PSU grant with ambitious stock price versting targets) https://t.co/iEnOdITDX3
All‑Weather Portfolio Outperforms Thanks to Yellow Rock
Today was a solid day of relative outperformance for the all-weather portfolio thanks once again to our yellow rock. https://t.co/o0Q3fVP5ux
Leverage Boosts Stock Volatility, Not Business Quality
"Financial leverage increases equity volatility, not business quality." Leverage doesn’t make a business better — it just makes the stock wilder. ⚠️📈 Financial leverage amplifies equity volatility. When debt is added to the capital structure, small changes in operating performance translate into...
Insider Take‑Private Looms as Settlement Clears Weedmaps Squeeze‑Out Path
No Cheap Squeeze-Outs: My Process Letter to the Weedmaps Board The settlement AIP cleared the path for insiders to strike. With a renewed take-private looking imminent before the proxy, I just served formal notice to the $MAPS Special Committee. See full presentation,...
Green Tech Production Quadruples, Outpaces All Consumer Goods
Technology production (green) * ~50 in 2000 * ~190 today Nearly a 4x increase over 25 years This is the only category with powerful long-term structural growth. It recovered strongly after 2008 and exploded again post-2020. Everything else? Mostly flat. Industrial Production: Consumer Goods (2017...
Sell‑side Analysts: Useless in Bull, Deadly in Bear
This is not specific to OWL, but today’s sell-side discourse reminds me of some excellent advice I got when I was just starting in this biz: “you don’t need sell-side analysts in a bull market, and in a bear market...
ASML Climbs 38% YTD Amid Market Uncertainty
ASML Holdings quietly floating higher in a sea of uncertainty seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. Consistent earnings execution and already up 38% YTD. $ASML #IBDPartner https://t.co/6bDmMq5jpN
Small‑cap Value Poised for Violent Surge Post‑tech Dominance
Russell 2000 $IWM slightly ahead of Nasdaq $QQQ since 2000 and now ahead year-on-year. But the path was dramatic. From 2000–2006 → Small caps crushed tech after the dot-com bust Since 2006, small caps have underperformed large-cap growth for two decades, and severely...
Invest in Real Assets, Not Crypto Hype
Warren Buffett teaches the ultimate investing lesson: Real investing is about assets that produce value—farms, apartment buildings, businesses—not hype or hot crypto. Focus on fundamentals, build long-term wealth, and avoid speculation. Most people invest backwards. 💸 Warren Buffett teaches a simple truth:...
Tech Momentum Hits 100th Percentile, Echoing 2000 Bubble Burst
"in tech, momentum’s performance has moved into the 100th percentile. To see similar levels of performance differential between winners and losers go back to 2000 as the dot-com bubble was bursting and the semis were holding up relative to the...
Emerging Markets Still Offer Cheap Value Opportunities
Emerging markets portfolio manager Juan Torres on: * Where the Real Emerging Markets Value Is * If US Stocks Fall, What Happens to Emerging Markets? * Should You Hedge Emerging Markets Currency Risk? * Is Buying the Dip Still Smart? * Emerging Markets Outlook: Cheap or...
Undervalued Stock <
Imagine selling a security barely above net cash because of industry overhang/listing deficiency while it trades at <2x EV/TTM FCF with massive impending regulatory tailwinds? https://t.co/HZIgUsuHYT