Tech Investing Is Essentially a Bet on TSMC
TSMC controls ~72% of the global chip foundry market. That means most of the world’s advanced chips run through one company. Apple. Nvidia. AMD. AI. When you invest in tech… you’re indirectly betting on TSMC.
B2 Gold Likely to Divest Versamet Stake for Buyback
B2 Gold $BTG stake in Versamet Royalties $VMET just screams to the Koala as non-core Considering the cash flow inflection anticipated in 2H 2026, really should consider alternatives there to fund a buyback perhaps Also notice Founders $FDR.V not listed on this...
Capex Hits Multi‑Decade Highs, Fueling Bull Market
For now, the bull is alive both cyclically and secularly, with earnings, capex, and margins driving both price and valuations higher. Below we see that capex as a percentage of revenues continues to make new multi-decade highs. https://t.co/4wGEyBuKNd
Solid Research, Not Hype, Hit META Bottom
Did My META Thesis Called the Bottom? Back in early March I published the full deep-dive thesis of #META. My Expected Value: $883 Margin of Safety at the time: >30% Verdict: BUY Those who trusted the numbers instead of the noise? They might have caught the...
Analyst Earnings Revisions Slip, Consumer Discretionary Hits Bottom
Analyst revisions to forward earnings expectations have dropped for the first time since early January. It is not unusual for revision momentum to turn south just prior to earnings seasons, and in fact estimates dropped in advance of the last three...
CAPE Model Predicts Weaker Future Returns Than Recent Bull Market
Confirming what the CAPE model suggests, the previous two secular bull markets (1949-1968 and 1982-2000) also suggest that future returns will not be as robust as the last decade-plus. https://t.co/aYe3ayil49
Cloudflare Leverages Edge AI for Scalable Growth
IGV is down 27.5% YTD — 5 software stocks to watch👇 $NET — Cloudflare | Forward EV/S: 24.05x Cloudflare runs workloads at the edge through Workers AI and charges for execution, not GPU rental. AI traffic rising across search, agents, and...
CAPE Predicts 10‑year Returns Slipping to Single Digits
However, the CAPE model (which holds that today’s 10-year P/E ratio determines the 10-year forward return) suggests that a secular peak may not be that far away. As scary as it sounds, all the CAPE model is predicting is that...
Small‑cap Growth Outpaces Large Caps, Defying Value Expectations
FT: "US small caps are outperforming big caps by a whopping 8.5% YTD. That’s a lot, especially given the chronic underperformance of small stocks over the past six years or so...Given the environment we are in (energy up, software down,...
AI Chip War Sparks Investor Risks in US-China Trade
AI Chips Are A Looming Battlefield In U.S.-China Trade. What Investors Should Know. https://t.co/FcrSZnqDwz $TSMC $AMSL $INTC $MU $NVDA $TSLA
Introducing MAX Factor: Next Evolution in Factor Investing
Investment professionals have long relied on factor investing—strategies built around characteristics like value, momentum, and quality—to generate returns beyond the broad market. Now we have MAX factor... by @larryswedroe https://t.co/DZtxWXTd85 https://t.co/ymSaV8Pukv
Morgan Stanley's 30 Picks to Grow Competitive Edge by 2027
Morgan Stanley recently revealed the 30 stocks they believe will expand their competitive advantages through the year 2027. Here is their full portfolio of stocks:
CPI Trend Indicator Remains Bullish for S&P 500
Today's CPI report was in line, with the core better than expected. Our long-term CPI trend indicator doesn't care about economists' expectations or excluding short-term moves in volatile sectors. It simply compares the headline CPI to its 6-month average. It...
Secular Bull Market Persists, Setting Fresh Highs and Lows
The chart below shows that the secular bull market remains firmly in place, with a clear series of new highs and new lows. https://t.co/QhqNCfk4Bw
60/40 Portfolio No Longer Works in Today's Market
"Remember the old days? When bonds rose and provided an offset to weaker equity returns? The days when the “60/40” portfolio was built to better withstand short-term fluctuations in volatile market conditions? That’s so yesterday." Our latest quarterly...
CDNL Secures First Data Center Contract, Estimates Look Promising
Added $CDNL to @GeoInvesting infrastructure and data center screens, on its first data center contract win today. At first glance.. not crazy cheap, but estimates look good and this opportunity probably isn’t in estimates. Worth tracking. @InfoArbMonitor https://t.co/690KfBGtyX https://t.co/vI99XC51TC
AMLM Poised for Rebound as Technicals Cool
Disseminated on Behalf of American Lithium Minerals Inc $AMLM $AMLM has been actively announcing acquisitions to build a diversified portfolio (Lithium, REE, Gold, Silver, Copper) in mining-friendly areas. It's also mentioned interest in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization for its projects (gold,...
Mag 7 Valuations Slip to 25x Forward P/E
Even the Mag 7 have come way down in terms of valuation, following their 17% drawdown since last October’s high. The cohort is now trading at a modest 25x forward P/E. https://t.co/EotkZU3iSu
Coal Miner Secures 6% Debt, yet Equity Multiples Stagnant
And just like that as we enter the final year of the price contingent window...we see the debt termed out another ~5 years Obviously coal price dependent but the Koala definitely feels like it doesn't own enough Whitehaven $WHC.AX Take a bow...
XLP's Persistent Underperformance Offers Strategic Edge
consumer staples $XLP have been WEAK vs. S&P 500 $SPX for years... they're solid & well-defined laggards... use that to your advantage...🚀 https://t.co/CYqDzpargw
Aletheia Lifts LITE Target to $1,225, EPS to Quadruple
Aletheia Capital also bulled up comments on $LITE Price Target Raised to $1,225 from $500 Expect EPS to quadruple in 2026–2028
Management Quality Determines Small Business Success or Failure
Some investors love to say management doesn't matter, but history has proven otherwise. The fastest way to destroy a small business is to put an idiot in charge of it. Management quality isn't one factor among many, it is the...
Seeking the Next China: High‑Upside Emerging Market ETFs
Hey @grok What emerging market or country ETF today feels like buying China in 2003 that most likely has a massive multi-year upside?
UTG Boosts Buyback, Maintains 8% Dividend Yield
#UTG Update in line. Interesting actions on Disposals and intention to increase Buyback authority. ESP synergies on track. Valuation down due to higher yields. Energy costs hedged. ShareScope has fwd Dividend Yield 8.1% rising to 8.2%; a decent payout.
Tax, Not Dollar, Is the Main Barrier to FII Inflows
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
Patience Is the Market’s Most Aggressive Advantage
Most investors think patience is passive. It's not. It's the most aggressive advantage in the market. Nine women can't produce a baby in one month. A great business can't compound in a quarter. Stop mistaking urgency for strategy.
Consistent Small Wins Beat Chasing the Next Amazon
The biggest misconception I see re investing is this idea that you need to find “the next Amazon” or “the next Nvidia” or whatever. Frankly this is one progenitor of exceptional returns but just one. It seems far easier to...
Shopify Earns Most Money Beyond Subscriptions
Day 1 of 30: How $SHOP Shopify actually makes money Most think it's a SaaS subscription business... subscriptions are only 24% of revenue Here's the real breakdown 🧵
TMDX Massively Undervalued; EPS Set to Compound 35%
$TMDX valuation is laughable at 4x NTM revs with OCS 2.0 trials, KidneyOCS (coming next year), and international expansion. If I’m right at $TMDX compounds EPS at 35% per year for the next 5 years… then this stock is going...
AI Scares Investors, but SaaS Moats Still Offer Buying Chance
SaaS companies are being crushed due to the perceived loss of moat from AI threat. Personally I am staying away from them. However, if you have deeper understanding of some of them and know that their moat is not lost,...
Wealth Comes From Normalized Earnings, Not Quarterly Spikes
Most investors obsess over next quarter's earnings. The ones who actually build wealth ignore them entirely. Intrinsic value runs on normalized earnings, what the business earns in a normal year, not its best year. Peak profits are a trap dressed up as a...
S&P Equal‑Weighted Index Holds Trend, Forward P/E 18.2
Taking a longer look, we can see below that the S&P 500 equal-weighted index is right on its rising trendline, while the forward P/E ratio is at 18.2x. It’s hard to accuse the market of being over-extended, at least in...
Earnings Growth Drives Market Gains, Balancing Valuations
The forward earnings estimate has been growing at a robust 17% annual rate and the momentum has thus far not been affected by the headlines. This strength has beenenabling the cycle to become more balanced between valuation and earnings. As of...
Investors Bet Wrong AI Layer; Profits Flow Elsewhere
“The layer you’re investing in may not be where the profits end up.” On the latest @excessreturnpod, we sit down with GMO's Tom Hancock to discuss their excellent recent paper Hype vs. High Conviction. We cover: ☑️the 4-layer AI stack and where...
S&P 500 Swings 4‑5% Weekly, P/E At
The S&P 500 index has continued to fluctuate in an elevated range (4-5% per week), as markets try to find their footing amid the conflicting headlines. The trailing P/E ratio is now 23.3x and the implied equity risk premium is...
Meta's Muse Could Boost Stock by $1 Trillion
If Open AI and Anthropic is worth $800 billion, then Meta's new Muse models should add $1 trillion to $META stock, given its vastly superior distribution with 3.5 billion users.
AI Won’t Crush Software Firms; Incumbents Will Thrive
Claude isn't going to destroy all software businesses. Incumbents in infrastructure software and cybersecurity will benefit from AI. They have deep pockets, enterprise customer relationships and are too deeply integrated. The market appears to be getting too pessimistic.
AXON Appears Attractive at 350‑355 With 30% EPS Growth Potential
In my opinion, $AXON is starting to look attractive for the first time in a long time... down -60% from the highs... still a little too expensive however there's a decent chance this company will compound EPS at a 30%...
US ETF AUM Could Triple
Citi: US ETF AUM may reach $25T by 2030 from $10.4T. Drivers: active ETFs, innovation, easier regs. Risks: flow reversals, market stress. Trade: raise exposure to selective active ETFs. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Nike at $43: Buy Signal After Fire‑Sale
Full Deep Dive Thesis - Is #NKE a BUY now at $43? I have been receiving DMs. Nike’s stock has been hammered. The brand everyone thought was untouchable… now trading at fire-sale levels. Even Tim Cook just loaded up. So the question everyone’s asking:...
AI's Second Inning Promises Explosive Growth, Not a Bubble
Are we in an AI bubble? Andy Jassy gave his take in the $AMZN annual shareholder letter: “I’ve followed the public debate on whether this technology is over-hyped, whether we’re in ‘a bubble,’ and if the margins and ROIC will be...
When CEOs Spend Millions Buying Low, They Trust Their Stock
5 signs a CEO actually believes in their own stock: 1. Open market purchase not option exercise - they chose to buy with their own cash 2. Purchase size over $1M - real money not a gesture 3. Stock is near 52-week low...
AI Boosts $NOW Amid Wild Drawdown and Mispricing
$NOW drawdown is wild. AI will accelerate its business meaningfully. The SaaS repricing is real, but this one is now wildly mispriced and underestimated.
Omai Poised for G2‑scale Valuation After Deal Alignment
A deal that always made operational/synergistic sense finally had the numbers align Logical flow forward of funds here will be Omai $OMG.V If G2 goes for ~C$2.6 billion with <4 million ounces in resources, have to think Omai has clear line...
Elevated Oil Prices Trigger Lagging Earnings Downgrades
Oil price impacts are likely to start showing up in negative earnings revisions this month. History suggests elevated oil prices have a lagged impact on fundamental conditions, and as long as oil prices remain somewhat elevated, downward revisions may remain...
Points 5 and 6 Define Cycle Durability, Not
I liked the $AMZN shareholder letter. I take point 4 with a grain of salt (trn is largely AWS as a customer and Anthropic). Points 5 and 6 are most important for the "durability" of the cycle debate. https://t.co/X7zQDnJ6YM
Stocks and Bonds Both Riding Multi-Year Uptrend
oil up, or oil down, risk on, or risk off... one thing remains clear... stocks $SPX vs. bonds $TLT are in a multi-year uptrend... https://t.co/7V1yxCbBNO
Most Stocks Lose 85% and Half Never Recover
Michael Mauboussin on drawdowns "The median drawdown for the 6,500 stocks in our sample from 1985-2024 was 85 percent and took 2.5 years from peak to trough. More than one-half of all stocks never recover to their prior highs."
Phunware Holds $100M Cash on $38M Market Cap
Any idea what is going on with Phunware $PHUN? $100m net cash on a market cap of roughly $38m, a result of its comfi ATM usage last year. Over 80% of its total assets is just cash. No idea (yet) what...
Innate Pharma Poised for Breakthrough with Astra Phase III
Innate Pharma $IPH. €110m market cap, decent net cash position (runway for another few Qs), and several key drug programs reaching critical milestones. The most significant is a Phase III trial (monalizumab in lung cancer) run with Astra $AZN, with...