Year Four Bull Markets Historically Deliver Strong Gains
This bull market is in year four, which historically is quite strong. Assuming the bull market doesn't end (by definition a 20% decline) you can see this year tends to be pretty strong. https://t.co/QQ3WWxzHfG
S&P-to-Gold Ratio 70% Lower Than 2000 Levels
The S&P 500 divided by the price of gold today is still 70% below where it was in 2000. @MorganStanley's Mike Wilson explains what this means for investors. https://t.co/V7xbgUdxvA https://t.co/sZD4Wb1rzF
Market Prices Over One Std Below Long‑Term Trend
"When we map recent developments onto our Valuation vs Profitability framework, we can see that the market is now trading more than one standard deviation below its long-term trend." -Duality Research
CSN’s Strong Results Boost Dividend Yield to 7.8%
#CSN results read well. I keep picking up on the first steps into more European countries bit; lot of opportunity to expand clearly. ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 7.5% rising to 7.8%; no brainer for Income Portfolio.
ShareScope's FEVR P/E Drops, Dividend Climbs; US Growth Ahead
ShareScope has #FEVR on fwd p/e 32.1 falling to 27.3 and fwd Divvy 2.3% rising to 2.5%, BEFORE cash stripped out. US should start to pick up now Molson Coors deal is embedded and focus turns to growth.
EVPL Shares Tumble, yet Fundamentals Remain Solid
#EVPL whacked 13.7% but the Results are pretty good. Revenue down due to ceasing Astragon low-margin business. £51.9m cash (down due to acquisitions). Says expects to meet forecasts but with H2 weighting (maybe that spooked market but I suspect it's...
Brazilian Stocks Surge, Early Thesis Underestimated
While all eyes were on metals: Brazilian stocks had an outstanding move today. At times, Brazilian equities feel like a beach ball being held underwater — the pressure keeps building. We’re still in the very early stages of this thesis, in my view. What’s...
April Ranks Second-Best Month for S&P 500 Gains
Rubner Citadel: Since 1928, April has been the second-best month for S&P 500 returns, with an average gain of +1.3%. https://t.co/yFgPybpRBD
Earnings Still Drive Markets; Pullback Seen as Healthy Pause
"Periods like this are not uncommon and, in many ways, resemble prior resets within this cycle. Ultimately, earnings drive markets. Until we see a meaningful deterioration in the earnings backdrop, we remain constructive and view this pullback as a healthy...
Future Gains Matter More than Past Performance
"Incremental returns on capital matter more than historical returns." Stop obsessing over past returns—they don’t pay your future. Smart investors focus on what a business can earn from here, not what it did yesterday.
2026 May Bring Median Stock Multiple Expansion,
Earlier this year, @MorganStanley's Mike Wilson said, “The surprise for 2026 could be that we see multiple expansion for the median stock in addition to strong earnings.” He explains why that hasn't changed. https://t.co/V7xbgUdxvA https://t.co/F0rrEGQbzw
Deutsche Bank Sees Market Bottom in 3 Weeks
"The historical playbook is for a sharp selloff of about -6% to -8% but a bottom on average in 3 weeks, and a full recovery in another 3, usually long before the underlying escalation is resolved. The current selloff is...
Mag 7 Stocks Hit Multi‑year Lows, Earnings Still Rising
While the leveraged crowd was getting margin called, here's what they left behind. $MSFT at 20x forward. Below the S&P 500. $META at 21x. $GOOG at 23x. Cheapest Mag 7 valuations in years. Earnings still growing 12.5%. The stocks got cheaper. The businesses didn't.
Build an All‑Weather Portfolio for Today’s Uncertain Markets
I am at a stage in life where my main objective is to pass along to others the principles I have learned over the last 60 years that have helped me and that I think can help others. I believe...
ABT Stock Slides, Yet 54-Year Dividend Streak Persists
If you're looking for a bargain, shares of ABT have been drifting downward. ABT has raised its dividend every year for the last 54 years in a row.
Discipline Beats IQ in Value Investing
Warren Buffett’s approach is simple: stay rational when others aren’t. Value investing is less about IQ and more about temperament, patience, and consistency in the stock market. Most investors lose money not because they lack intelligence, but because they lack discipline.
Undervalued Gems:
Tim Travis @TimTravisValue on: * Blue Owl $OWL and $OBDC: Hidden Value in Private Credit Stocks? $MSDL * Why Asset Managers Like Blackstone, $KKR, and Blue Owl Are So Cheap * Energy Stocks Rally: $DVN, $OXY, and $EPD Breakdown * Assured Guaranty $AGO:...
Oracle’s $153 Price Offers 35% Safety Margin
Full Deep Dive Thesis: Is ORCL a BUY at $153? Oracle at $153: Why Wall Street’s $50B CapEx & Debt Panic Just Created a Rare 35% Margin of Safety on a $553 Billion Contracted AI Backlog Recent Institutional Rating Upgrades: • JP Morgan...
Open Text Stock Uncertain Amid AI Integration Hurdles
Open Text stock faces uncertainty amid #AI integration challenges and enterprise software slowdown. (Ad Hoc News) #Technology #Stocks #Valuations #JVGpost https://t.co/XC8bWoPbBr https://t.co/qLf54XTRUB
CAPE Still Predicts Long‑Term Returns, New Study Shows
CAPE has long been a cornerstone of long-horizon return forecasting. High valuations imply lower future returns. Low valuations imply higher future returns. Critics argue that its predictive power has faded. This paper pushes back. by @ebasilico https://t.co/GagZA56sWf https://t.co/3Zd7kxgT9K
Steepening 10‑3 Curve Signals Shift to Cyclical Value Rally
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
Market Corrections Trigger Upcoming Metal Stock Mania
Fact: Major Market Corrections precede Metal and Resource stock manias - there are many examples in history including: 2009, 2015, 2020, 2025! And today. Gold now well off its lows ... https://t.co/mlzues0wR7
Mild Pullbacks Are Normal; Markets Usually Recover
Yes, this recent bout of volatility hasn't been fun for investors, but remember, volatility is the toll we pay to invest. These three charts are timeless and always come in handy in times like this. Chart 1 - The average years sees...
Midterm Dips Trigger ~32% Rebound Within a Year
Midterm years tend to see the largest peak-to-trough pullbacks. That's the bad news. The good news? Off the mid-term year low, stocks have never been lower a year later and up nearly 32% on average. https://t.co/yfCeUhC21k
Success Depends on Entry Price, Not Just Quality
Howard Marks: “Investment success doesn’t come from ‘buying good things,’ but rather from ‘buying things well.’” Takeaway: Entry price drives outcome.
MercadoLibre’s Ecosystem Creates Undervalued Founder‑led Moat
6 undervalued founder-led companies with real moats 👇 $MELI — MercadoLibre (31.07 Forward PE) MercadoLibre operates a closed-loop ecosystem: commerce → payments → credit → logistics. Over 60M fintech MAUs interact across multiple layers of the platform. Mercado Envíos delivers a majority of orders...
Grantham Warns Against AI Hype, Emphasizes Value Investing
Few investors have seen more cycles than Jeremy Grantham. A conversation with the GMO Co-Founder on bubbles, value investing, AI exuberance, and environmental philanthropy. https://t.co/C8lWkLZ3g4 With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Gold Bull Market Doesn't Boost Chinese Jewelry Retailer
You would’ve thought that a Chinese retailer of gold jewelry should do well in a gold bull market. But no. https://t.co/I5hGQN1jn2
Elliott's Multibillion Synopsys Bet Amid AI Chip Surge
Macro: AI-driven chip complexity raises EDA demand. Key: Elliott took multibillion stake in Synopsys; Nvidia tie, new CEO; shares −12%. Risk: activist margin push. Trade: accumulate SNPS on dips. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
DLO's Post-IPO Multiples Keep Compressing To
New to the name... why have multiples continued to compress since IPO? 13x next years earnings $DLO
Low‑priced Financials: Opportunity or Hidden Trouble?
Sometimes things are cheap for a reason, but financials are one group that if you were waiting to buy it when it got cheaper, this is quite interesting.
Activist vs Value Growth: Unlocking Japan’s Hidden Stock Potential
There are many approaches to investing in Japan. Senjin Capital uses shareholder activism to unlock the deep value trapped inside many small Japanese companies. Isabella Foley and @ForagerFunds take a different, but complementary approach, preferring stocks that are growing well...
Combine VOO and QQQM for Balanced Wealth Growth
If you could only pick two ETFs to build wealth… these are hard to ignore. VOO gives you the entire S&P 500 — 500+ companies, low fees, and steady long-term growth. QQQM focuses on the Nasdaq-100 — more tech, more growth potential,...
Energy Gains From Multiples; Other Sectors Now Cheaper
WEI LI @BlackRock: Energy's surge has come almost all from multiple expansion... Tech, Discretionary, Financials are now wayy cheaper than they were on Dec 31st https://t.co/N3mpO9RuZr
Trust, Leadership, Speed: Buffett’s Blueprint for Market Success
Warren Buffett breaks down the real secret behind success in the stock market: trust, leadership, and fast decision-making. Learn how value investing and smart capital allocation can accelerate wealth building and give you an edge in today’s investing world.
JPMorgan: Undervalued Stock, Ideal Tech Portfolio Diversifier
Is JPM a BUY Right Now? My view: I believe JPMorgan Chase is undervalued at current levels. Even better, it’s a high-conviction diversifier for any portfolio that’s already heavily exposed to semiconductors and technology. Check out my latest thesis on Substack below
Tech Forward P/E Near Long‑Term Median Since 1995
S&P 500 Expanded Tech Forward P/E Ratio.. right near its long-term median since 1995 @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/gRuj8dp3hU
SaaS Valuations Plunge, yet Growth Stays Robust
SaaS valuations have reset — but growth remains intact. Significant multiple compression - Median EV/Sales declined from 15–17x to 4–5x. Median subscription SaaS snapshot 👇 • EV/Sales: 4.7x • NTM Growth: 16.5% • 51 public companies • for SaaS companies (including device / fixed-capacity subscriptions and...
Expect Market Drops; Be Ready Before Buying Stocks
“About once every two years the market falls 10%. Every six years the market’s going to have a 25% decline. That’s all you need to know. You need to know that the market’s going to go down sometimes. If you’re...
Market Crashes Are Temporary; Long‑term Returns Exceed 10%
Remember, the Stock Market Crashed: 34% in 2020 57% in 2008 49% in 2000 36% in 1987 50% in 1973 89% in 1929 And then it recovered to all time-highs each and every time. Since 1926, the stock market has returned an average of over 10% per year. Don't...
Growth Alone Isn't Enough: Prioritize Low Dilution
SBC/Revenue vs NTM growth 👇 High growth ≠ shareholder-friendly $TEAM $FIG → strong growth, but SBC eats a large portion of value The best companies balance both $PLTR $APP $SHOP $ZETA → high growth with controlled dilution Low SBC = real operating leverage $MSFT $FICO $FTNT...
Fundsmith Trims Big Tech, Adds Consumer and Niche Picks
Terry Smith's 2026 Fundsmith Annual Meeting: Sold: PepsiCo, Brown-Forman Halved: Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet Bought: EssilorLuxottica, Wolters Kluwer, Zoetis, Intuit, Magnum Ice Cream Full transcript: https://steadycompounding.com/transcript/fundsmith-terry-smith-annual-meeting-2026/
Google Gains Ad Share as SMBs Favor AI Search
Macro: SMBs shift to AI search; Key: GOOGL's AI Overviews gain share vs META; Risk: budget reallocation dilutes social reach; Insight: Overweight GOOGL on ad-share gains. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Visional's BizReach Disrupts Japan Recruitment, 20% Growth
Visional (4194 JP) is disrupting Japan's recruitment market through its direct-scouting platform BizReach. Growing 20% annually, and according to my estimate, 12.5x 2027e P/E. https://t.co/Q0cX2GjlDd
Predictable Demand Cuts Valuation Uncertainty, Boosts Returns
"Predictable demand reduces valuation uncertainty over long horizons." Predictability is one of the most underrated drivers of long-term returns.
Only a Quarter of 5% Dips Become Corrections, Rarely Bears
Since WWII, there have been 105 5% pullbacks (not including the current one). About 25% of those turned into a correction and only 12.4% turned into a bear market. https://t.co/kvY5qL4H4P
Earnings Rise, Prices Fall: Energy Costs Lag Impact
S&P 500 earnings growth: +13% year-to-date. S&P 500 price return: -3.24%. Strong fundamentals. Falling prices. What's actually happening? The economy doesn't have a fundamental problem. It has an energy problem. Oil at $110 is a forward tax on margins and consumption that...
Read Filings: Unlock Hidden Profits in Plain Sight
Reading the filings really can make you a whole lot of money. It’s all in there.
Tech and Financial P/E Ratios Dip Below April 2025 Levels
More from @DualityResearch... Tech & Financials P/E ratios now below their April 2025 closing levels https://t.co/dHpAkDVnQw
S&P 500's Top Ten Dominate
GS: Concentration of S&P 500 market cap and earnings in the 10 largest index constituents... jaws are clamping down a bit https://t.co/UX5qVWlYho