NYSE A‑D Top Signals Mild 2026 S&P Dip
The NYSE and $SPX advance-decline lines topped in late February. There was no divergence at the top(an A-D line top before the S&P 500 top). Prior to every 4 year or 7 year cycle high in the past except one, the NYSE A-D line topped before the S&P 500. The only exception was 1994 which was the mildest decline ever into a 4 year cycle low with a 9.7% drawdown. In 1994 SPX topped in late January and bottomed in early April but it didn't make a new ATH for the rest of year. I expect a similar mild decline into a 4 year cycle low in 2026 with a downside target of 6100-6200.
Close Below 200MA Signals Bearish Trend – Cut Equity
Finance 101: When the Market Closes Below the 200MA – A Classic Bearish Signal When the closing price drops below the 200-day Moving Average (200MA), it’s one of the most respected long-term bearish signals in technical analysis. The 200MA smooths out...
Small‑cap Star Delivers 1,670% 10‑year Return
It's time to revisit the case of a small cap star that has returned +1670% over the last 10 years and operating stronger than ever... post coming on premium feed
Most Claim They'll Buy the Dip, but Can't Afford It
Everyone says they are ready for a correction. Some even say they want a correction. Very few will have the stomach or the cash to follow through on their intentions and buy when others are selling. It can happen over weeks, months,...
Market's Ultra‑Low PE Ratios Signal Doom Forecast
Some next 12 month PE ratios: Bumble: 3.6x Shift4: 7.3x Novo Nordisk: 10.8x HelloFresh: 9.5x Prosus: 9.3x SK Hynix: 5.2x Is Mr Market pricing the end of the world already? $BMBL $FOUR $NVO $HFG $PRX
Six Companies Celebrate Over a Decade of Dividend Growth
I review dividend increases as part of my monitoring process. There were 25 dividend increases over the past week Six of those companies have raised dividends for at least 10 years in a row. The companies include:
Outperform by Targeting Low‑Competition 5‑Year Horizon
How to beat the market 101: "Only by looking further out than the short-term crowd can we expect to beat them." Nick Sleep understood that competition is highest in the 1-quarter window and lowest in the 5-year window. Excerpt from his letters...
Patience Wins: Hold Quality Assets Through Downturns
Stocks are down. Crypto is down. Gold is down. Unless all your money is in oil, you've felt the pain. I have been through many downturns over the past decade and I am here to remind you: They never last forever. We get too focused on...
AI's Power Hunger Drives 11% Pick‑and‑Shovel Returns
AI doesn't run on optimism. It runs on electricity — 183 TWh in 2024, projected to hit 426 TWh by 2030. Someone has to build and operate the pipelines, power plants, and transmission lines feeding every data center. This week's High Yield Spotlight:...
Profitability Remains Sole Unchanged S&P 500 Criterion
"Changes to index criteria are frequently proposed and often adopted. Since 2015, S&P has made over 20 updates to the S&P 500 index methodology, including increasing the minimum seasoning requirement in 2017 and reducing the minimum float requirement in 2019....
Wealth Grows When Compounders Need Little Capital
"The best compounders require minimal external capital to grow." The best investments don’t need constant fuel to grow. Great compounders scale with minimal external capital — that’s where real wealth is built.
All Weather Portfolio Beats Expected Returns, Drawdown On Target
All Weather portfolio update. Current drawdown -8.35% which is within the expected return/risk profile. CAGR since release running at +24.2%, which is above the expected return profile. #next1000trades https://t.co/Bf8eenZ9Am
Choosing UPS Vs. FedEx for a Decade-Long Hold
UPS x FDX Q4’25 $UPS or $FDX which one would you hold for the next 10 years? #investingtips #stockmarketnews #investingideas
Top Value Investing Insights and Leaders Spotlighted
This week in value: Year-End Letter for 2025: Deep Value (GMO) PzenaPerspectives – The Value Stocks to Watch (Pzena) How Value Investing Adds Value (VIS) Co-Founder and CEO Sarah Ketterer reflects on 25 years of value investing at Causeway Capital (Causeway)
Think Bigger Than Your Capital: Buffett’s Investing Truth
Investing isn’t about how much capital you start with—it’s about how well you think. Warren Buffett’s approach shows that small sums can grow significantly when you focus on undervalued businesses, strong fundamentals, and long-term cash generation. Deep research and patience...
Markets Shifting: Small Caps, Oil, Healthcare Set to Lead
My conversation with @MorganStanley's Mike Wilson on the state of markets. We cover: • Is 60/20/20 the new 60/40? • Why he expects leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap stocks into small caps • Implications of rising oil prices • Why today’s environment resembles the 1940s •...
Value Stocks Shine After Tech Bubbles Burst
"Conclusion Overall, the results suggest that the most reliable approach is to hold a long position in value stocks relative to growth stocks. Attempts to systematically trying to predict periods when large growth stocks outperform small value stocks are difficult, but...
Boston Beer Matches Ten‑year Buybacks in Three Years
Boston Beer repurchased ~$530 million of its common stock over the past three years, which is roughly comparable to what the company spend on repurchases over the previous decade (FY13 - FY22) https://t.co/pROlFqwX7E
Stop Leaving Roth IRA Cash Idle—Invest for Growth
$70k of cash sitting in a Roth IRA… That’s 10 years of contributions getting only 2-4%/yr from MMF Instead of ~10%/yr from S&P 500 in that timeframe Just a reminder: your Roth IRA contributions need to actually be invested.
80 Mid‑Cap Firms at Historic EV/EBIT Lows
80 US or European companies trading in the 2nd percentile of their historical EV/EBIT valuation (market cap between $500M and $5B) 👇🏻 Which one is high up on your watchlist?
War’s Short‑term Impact, yet Markets Thrive Long‑term
Wars can move markets in the short run, as they are today. But over the long run, stock returns are driven by economic growth and corporate earnings. Since 1941 the world has seen almost constant conflict. And yet, $1 in the S&P 500...
Vol Premium Soars While VIX Stays Low
Vol premium is near historic highs. But VIX is only 25. On the latest OPEX Effect on @excessreturnpod, @spotgamma explains what’s going on behind the scenes and what it could mean for the market. https://t.co/fKAHUZs21I
Exiting Non‑US Rally, Maintaining Global Balance with Cash Buffer
After a massive run in non U.S. assets for 14 months, over the last few weeks, I have been getting out of the "Get Out" trade for my long only long term beta portfolio. Current portfolio is a globally...
Microcaps Rarely Achieve 26x Revenue, 173x NIAT Growth
A great slide Over 16 years.. Revenue 26x NIAT 173x F/D Shares -17% 99.9% of microcaps couldn't have a slide like this $RX.V $BIOYF https://t.co/Sw0gquHq8o
Asset Allocation Doesn't Explain 93.6% of Returns
"Asset allocation explains 93.6% of investment returns." You've heard that stat. It's wrong. What the paper actually found, and what the industry has been misquoting for 40 years, is the subject of our latest video for @IFAdotcom 👇 #Investing #WealthManagament #Finance https://t.co/HtF2EcPoVu
10 Essential Podcast Episodes for Beginner Dividend Growth Investors
Everyone starts somewhere. If you are new to dividend growth investing, these 10 episodes are the perfect starting point. 🔗 https://europeandgi.com/how-to/dividend-growth-investing-for-beginners-10-podcast-episodes-to-listen-to-first/
Even Top Managers Struggle to Sell Losers
During the conversation today with Lee Freeman-Shor and Clare Flynn Levy who have analyzed the trade data of many of the best fund managers in the world - I asked what decision type do successful managers have the most issues...
Follow Pro Steps to Spot Winning Stocks
For most investors, a well-diversified portfolio of funds will do the trick. But if you want to try to identify winners like the pros on Wall Street, there are steps you can take. https://t.co/6RP6PY8ebH
Watch Insider Trades to Gauge Company Conviction
We use a lot of fundamental metrics at TLI to determine the true value of a company. That being said another thing to look at is insider buys and sells. They are the ones that know the operations of the...
Assessing Managers, AI Moats, and the New MacBook Neo
🆓 Thursday links: assessing manager performance, how AI impacts company moats, and the case for a new MacBook Neo. https://t.co/duwiEpYK9L chart: https://t.co/gq6jLYoEZI https://t.co/VnZShWu1PC
Selling at Market Lows Costs Massive Missed Gains
If you sold on Liberation Day – you missed 34% recovery in $SPX If you sold on Silicon Valley collapse spring 2023 – you missed 78% in $SPX If you sold on Covid in spring 2020 – you missed 198% recovery in...
Cap‑Weighted Index Overvalued; Equal‑Weighted Remains Fairly Priced
For the cap-weighted index, price has remained quite elevated and well above the rising uptrend line. While the trailing P/E ratio has contracted from 26.1x to 23.9x, it remains elevated. The equal-weighted index is far less extended against its rising trendline,...
Family Owners Prioritize Dividend over Strategic Freedom, Says Fundsmith
Terry Smith (Fundsmith) on selling Brown-Forman: "We hoped family ownership would lead them to perhaps find a course through all of this that a company subject to the influence of quarterly earnings wouldn't be able to do, but it's not...
NBIS Holds $1.3B in Future Customer Pre‑Payments
"$NBIS is not getting customer Pre-Payments." Just because they didn't announce it doesn't mean they aren't. Clues are in the balance sheet. $1.6B in deferred revenues. $1.3B of that is non-current, revenues that won't be recognised in the next 12 months. Customers paid $NBIS $1.3B...
Buy‑side Questions Cycle Durability; Stay Bullish yet Cautious
Talking to a lot of the buy side, it's clear that, despite understanding the constraints and the demand, the central debate is still the durability of the cycle across the board. It is ok to be bullish, but being sensitive...
Klarna: Potential 5x Upside Amid Subprime Risks
Klarna: 5x Opportunity or a Subprime Lender? $KLAR offers a uniquely asymmetrical profile: - Beat Down Stock - Expanding into Banking - Strong Growth - Potential for improving profits https://www.globalequitybriefing.com/p/klarna-5x-opportunity-or-a-subprime?r=39awso&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Free Deep‑Dive Equity Thesis on META, MU, GOOGL
I have published Deep Dive Equity Thesis on Substack. META, MU and GOOGL Check it out for free. I have shared my perspective and recommendations. I love these thesis. I hope you will like them as well.
S&P 500’s Narrow Bias Challenges Passive Portfolio Strategies
The S&P 500 remains the standard benchmark—but its current makeup may no longer reflect the broad, diversified U.S. exposure investors assume. What does that mean for passive investing, manager evaluation, and portfolio decisions? https://t.co/WLekmvu2T3
Small Caps Thrive as Large Caps Falter in Risk‑Off
IWM up 1.76% on the year. SPY down 2.88%. Small caps outperforming large caps by nearly 460 basis points. Nobody covers this because the narrative is pure risk-off. But small caps — domestic, value-oriented, less exposed to global supply chains —...
DFA Leverages Section 351 After Exchange Fund Attempt
DFA entering the Section 351 game... https://t.co/ScNBQmXbwU A smart move after their attempt at an exchange fund.
War, Debt, and Inflation Will Cripple Growth Stocks
Growth stocks will be severely decapitated from this war. I just check some data and growth stocks valuations will get capped. Working overtime to get the data ready. It’s not as simple as just buying the dip with 1. Cost of War 2. Escalation of...
Consistently Beating the S&P? Just Buy the Market
Beating the S&P 500 isn't difficult. But beating the S&P 500 consistently, over the long term, is very very difficult. Many people overestimate their ability to pick good stocks over the long term. They eventually realize that it’s a losing game. That's why...
Long US Equities Remain Top Relative-Value Pick
caught up with Politico earlier this week—reiterated that long US on a relative value basis is the best bet for DM https://t.co/Fp6nW6gQDZ
Testing Complaints: Turning Trends Into Real Numbers
“One of my favorite things to do is take a trend that everybody’s complaining about and then see if we can actually see it in the numbers.” ~@a_m_mastroianni
Microcap Success: Rare, Unpredictable, Right Time, Right Place
It’s always been amazing to me how you can have 10 microcaps in the portfolio with a similar positive fundamental/solid management setup over the next two years. You think they can 2-3x. A few will and several won’t quite make...
LSL Shows Strong Fundamentals Amid Iran Risk
#LSL results read well and they say current trading is decent; but of course Iran mess could rock this. ShareScope has fwd p/e 9.2 falling to 7.9 and fwd Divvy 5% rising to 5.2% AND Buybacks on top. Certainly interesting....
IGG Valuation Improves: Lower P/E, Higher Dividend, Buybacks
ShareScope has #IGG on fwd p/e 11.6 falling to 10.5 and fwd Divvy 3.5% rising to 3.6%, BEFORE 5% jump today - BUT remember there are Buybacks on top. With a strong history of growth it seems reasonable value still.
Micron
MS note on $MU. I get it, and this both makes sense and makes no sense at the same time. https://t.co/eXaRfWNQ04
Salesforce Insider Purchase Signals Potential SaaS Bottom
Is someone tracking the insider buying across the broader SaaS complex? In Japan, only 5%+ holders need to disclose buying and selling, so there's limited data. But feels like we're nearing a bottom.
Most Stocks Lose Money, Yet Market Adds $91T
Self Recommending: "One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets" by Hendrik Bessembinder. A century of data for nearly 30,000 U.S. public companies. Fun fact: "Shareholders' wealth was enhanced by $91 trillion over the century, but long-term investors in nearly...