Board's $400M Buyback Matches Six Years' Spend in 90 Days
From "Trying To Be Realistic" (03/09/26): "The Board approved a $400 million repurchase authorization in October 2025, which was completed in three months. The value of repurchase spend over this 90-day period was equal to the total over the previous six years."
Software Valuations Crash: Multiples Plummet, Reset Underway
Software still getting crushed today… and look at this: 52-week drawdowns + valuations: $NOW → 25x P/E $INTU → 18x $ADBE → 10x $CRM → 14x $FICO → 25x $UBER → 21x These were “expensive” not long ago. Now? The reset is real.
Hims Remains a Reject at $23 Despite Upgrades
Deep Dive Full Thesis - Is HIMS a BUY now at $23? Hims Just Partnered with Novo Nordisk After Being Sued by Them + SEC/DOJ Probes — Why My Full Analysis Still Says REJECT at $23 It’s at 21 now… Recent Institutional Rating...
Profitable Stocks Outperform Unprofitable Ones, Says Sonders
This year, unprofitable stocks are being "handily" outperformed by profitable stocks (a reversal of 2025). "In this environment, profitability is a focus for us." Full interview with @LizAnnSonders: Apple🔊https://t.co/2dDJ3eD1p7 Spotify📽️https://t.co/gSpDwqSJC9 https://t.co/NnPYzIrC1l
US Stock Market Among Least Concentrated Globally
You think the S&P 500 Index is too concentrated? Try going to another country for a while. The US is one of the *least* concentrated markets. Here's countries ranked by the % of market made up by top 10 biggest...
Midcap Portfolio Ending Q1 as Smallcap: Style Drift?
Is it considered style drift if a midcap portfolio ends 1Q as smallcap? Asking for a friend.
Analyst Targets Mirror Price, Not Fundamentals—Do Your Own Analysis
Are You Still Holding $SOFI? Revealing Wall Street Retail Trap that nobody talks about I just dove deep into the classic Wall Street Retail Trap that’s burned almost every investor at some point. After analyzing 44 analyst reports, here’s the brutal finding: Their price...
Survive Markets by Controlling Position Size and Cutting Losses
Most people don’t lose money from bad stocks. They lose from bad positioning. Position size controls survival. Entries control conviction. Bull market: Go heavy → 📈 Bear market: Stay light + cut fast → 🛡️ Over a full cycle: Survive → Then win. The biggest mistake? Refusing to take a loss. That’s...
Simple Three‑Tier Kids Portfolio for Market Volatility
My kids' portfolio for 2026: 30% Staples — boring ETFs. Don't think. Just automate. 40% Mature Growth — $NVDA $TSM $META $AMZN $GOOG $NFLX $MS $GS 30% High Growth — $PLTR $APP $HIMS $CRDO $SHOP $UBER No high risk tier for kids. Three tiers...
Small‑cap Russell 2000 Outpaces Nasdaq—Real Rotation
Everyone is watching the Nasdaq. Nobody is watching small caps. The Russell 2000 is up over 1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq 100 is down nearly 5%. That's a 6-point gap — and it's barely being discussed. Small caps don't outperform like this by...
HeyDude Turnaround Likely Suboptimal, Management May Resist Admission
From the $CROX initiation: "HeyDude’s turnaround efforts will require attention and investment; there’s a good chance it will be a suboptimal use of those resources... Even if that becomes apparent, I don’t think it will be easy for management to...
Earnings Growth Offsets Falling P/E, Signals Healthy Market
If that reset continues, we could get a 2022 “echo,” in which equities correct entirely on the basis of falling P/E’s, while earnings continue to grow. Remember that stock prices are driven not only by earnings and payouts but also...
Buy Quality Blue‑Chip Stocks on Sale Now
Always a pleasure talking with @SquawkCNBC and @BeckyQuick. Trying to think longer term to buy quality companies on sale. $NFLX $UNP $SNPS $DOV $ANFGF $MS
Predicting Corrections Costs More Than Corrections
Including dividends, the S&P 500 has gained over 1,200% since the March 2009 low, despite 32 corrections >5%. “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”...
Seek Uncorrelated Returns to Reduce Risk, Dalio Shows
According to Ray Dalio, the easiest way to adjust for risk is to seek uncorrelated returns. Ray's made billions from a simple idea. Here's how to do it in a few lines of Python code:
Discipline vs Ego: Know When to Let Go
There's a fine line between conviction and denial. Holding on when the thesis is intact? That's discipline. Holding on because admitting you're wrong hurts? That's ego. The facts don't care which one it is. Your portfolio doesn't either.
Profits Rise While S&P Prices Drop: Look Past Pain
"The profit outlook for S&P 500 companies has been improving even as share prices have fallen - a dynamic rarely seen during episodes of geopolitical uncertainty ... The setup has historically rewarded investors willing to look through near-term pain." -Bloomberg
CTRI Poised for Comeback with 30% IRR Target
$CTRI is a broken spin-off staging a comeback - Parent $SWX fully exited; 80% supply overhang is gone - Pure-play exposure to grid load growth and gas infrastructure - DD organic growth + long roll-up runway - Implied 30% IRR with a target of...
Midcaps Outperformed Nifty, Signal Strong Recovery Opportunity
Midcap stocks continued to outperform the Nifty all through the crisis. This is a strong signal that, as markets recover, Midcaps will deliver returns. It also shows strength in the market internals for the given period, a strong signal that...
Patience Beats Data: Markets Reward Long-Term Discipline
"Patience captures the value that spreadsheets underestimate." Spreadsheets don’t reward patience—but markets do. Most investors overestimate short-term signals and underestimate long-term compounding. The real edge isn’t in more data, it’s in discipline.
S&P 500 Forward EPS Hits Record $332, SMIDs Surge
S&P 500 forward EPS a record high of $332 SMIDs also yodeling higher over the last six months @yardeni https://t.co/BfA01cKlKd
Meta's Sub‑20x PE Signals Cheap Growth Bet
$META forward PE has dropped below 20x It's quite cheap given the growth it has been able to maintain. You're getting for free these bets: Oculus / Wearables / AI. Not as compelling as Google's 2025 stock price when you got...
Small Caps Outperform Big, Ratio Hits Century‑High
Over the last century the smallest stocks (green, LHS) have beaten the biggest stocks (red, LHS) by six times (blue, RHS). But not in a straight line. The market has cycled. And the cycles were long. The blue line shows the...
Quality Factor's Historic Underperformance Poised for Sharp Reversal
Try to remember that just 3 months ago we were in the middle of the most bizarre underperformance by the Quality factor this century. Almost 1999 on the performance gap. Historically, when this chart snapped, it snapped hard the other...
Excitement Costs Returns; Prioritize Value and Patience
In stock market investing, chasing excitement often destroys returns. Charlie Munger reminds us that smart investors focus on what truly adds value, compounding, patience, and clarity, rather than unnecessary risks or short-term wins. Excitement is expensive in the stock market.
Five Essential Investor Lessons Amid Market Turmoil
With everything happening out there, it is easy to get swept up in all the emotion. In our latest @CarsonResearch blog, I take a step back and look at 5 lessons all investors need to know. https://t.co/B5u4UhzmLw
Small‑Cap Earnings Rebound, Valuation Discount Sparks Appeal
Small-cap earnings growth is continuing to rebound, at the same time small-caps trade at a valuation discount to large-caps. Mike Wilson (@MorganStanley) explains why he likes small-cap stocks today. https://t.co/VmR4Wvtf8K https://t.co/DyiuOw4Nl4
BDC's Top Holding: SpaceX Stock at 30% Discount
Wait until they find out that a certain BDC’s largest position is SpaceX stock and its trading -30% below NAV
Robinhood at $72 Still Not a Buy
Deep Dive Full Thesis - Is HOOD a BUY now at $72? Robinhood Crashed 53% to $72 — Why I’m Still Rejecting It (and the Exact Price Where It Finally Becomes a Buy) Recent Institutional Rating Reiterated: - Barclays — Buy | $124 -...
Doximity Hits 52‑Week Low Amid Health‑Tech Rout
Macro: health-tech rout - Doximity 52-wk low $23.53 (-69%). Fundamentals: ~90% gross margin, net cash, AI progress. Risks: pharma budget cuts, weak sentiment. Trade: small, catalyst-led long. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Butler National Posts Explosive Earnings, Still Undervalued
Butler National $BUKS. What a stock... - Q3 revenues (Jan 31) +27% yoy, an acceleration even on tougher comps - operating income +139%, record margins - net income, well you can imagine 🔥 - insiders continue to add - still no coverage - still 7.7x ltm...
Shopify’s Moat Deepens as Valuation Hits Historic Low
5 quality stocks with durable moats and high upside 👇 Some of the strongest platforms are now trading near historical valuation lows. $SHOP Shopify — 10.3x forward P/S Shopify powers $378B in GMV. Not just storefronts anymore. Payments, fulfillment, back-office tools all embedded...
Five Undervalued Moat Stocks to Watch
5 Quality Stocks with strong competitive advantages trading below median valuation 👇 $SOFI Full-stack bank + infrastructure. Galileo + Technisys cut costs, speed launches. Members expand across products, lowering CAC structurally. $ZETA 240M+ identity profiles power targeting. Athena automates campaigns across channels....
Every Double‑Digit S&P Drop Since 1928 Had a Cause
As we noted last year around this time, there is always a reason stocks lose double digits during a calendar year. Only 12 times since 1928 has the S&P 500 finished down double digits and each one had a reason. https://t.co/8bqfgijTgs
Passive Inflows Lock Markets as Ultra‑wealth Drives Equity Demand
WSJ: "There are about 430,000 U.S. households worth $30 million or more, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Zidar. Within that, there are about 74,000 worth $100 million or more. Over the past few decades, the growth...
S&P Slingshot Years Predict Double‑Digit Gains Ahead
Small sample size, yes. Still, last year saw the S&P 500 down more than 15% YTD at some point and finished the year up more than double digits. We called this a slingshot year. The other three times that happened (1982, 2009,...
Robinhood Buyback: Dip Play Amid Crypto‑Driven Fragility
Robinhood Stock Rises After $1.5 Billion Buyback as Shares Stay Under Pressure Question: if stock tripled in 2025 then dropped 39% in 2026, is $1.5B buyback buying the dip or catching a falling knife? Robinhood's crypto reliance = structural vulnerability when...
Markets Now Drive Geopolitics, Keeping Stocks Resilient
Animal Spirits: The Best Stocks in History Markets rule geopolitics now Why would the Fed raise rates? Why aren't stocks down more this year? Why is gold down 20%? Why are new car payments so high? How to keep your customers happy & more https://t.co/7HhzBVbwb8 https://t.co/D1K44yFSeR
Pension Funds Snap Up $14B Equities, Top Percentile
GS on Flows via BBG: - Pension funds to buy $14 billion in equities for month/quarter-end rebalancing. - Ranks 75th percentile over the past three years in absolute dollar terms, and 97th percentile on a net basis. https://t.co/PkjmgbNxLG
Gold Crushes Stocks Over Every Decade Span
imagine being an investor that is so stubborn to be unwilling to invest in an asset (gold) that has outperformed stocks on a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 and 20-year time frame... $PHYS $GLD $SPX $TSX not just outperformed... crushed......
Barclays Lifts 2026 S&P 500 Target to 7,650
Barclays raises 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 despite Middle East, inflation risks https://t.co/UIix0xSpIM
Microcaps Double, Triple, Then Plunge—Sell Aggressively
Microcaps vs larger caps are two different animals. When a microcap goes up 2x and 3x in a 12-month period the median peak to trough drawdown is 58% and 68%. When an S&P 500 stock goes up 2x or 3x in a...
Big Tech Valuations Drop Below 20x Earnings
$MSFT now below 20x earnings... $AVGO 18x $NVDA 16x $META 17x out-year earnings estimates @finviz_com https://t.co/i1ijeByOv6
AI Accountability, Manager Incentives Undermine Traditional Style Indices
🔬 Research links: AI accountability, fund manager incentives, and the downside of traditional style indices. https://t.co/dbBOGPUYxJ image: https://t.co/bKyq3XAKIQ https://t.co/FNwileIXVO
Perplexity Computer Delivers Instant, Deep Guidance Credibility Analysis
I never found a way to adopt the old version of Perplexity in my investment process, but the things you can one-shot in Perplexity Computer are mind bogglingly good, and it has become a daily driver for me (for the...
Housing Likely to Underperform Private Equity in Five Years
Predicting forward returns is notoriously difficult but setting expectations can be helpful Which asset class will have worse returns over the next 5 years: Housing or private equity? https://t.co/AbfW2cXe9G https://t.co/ig9j4zorjK
Gold Shows Zero Stock Correlation; Bitcoin Slightly Linked
Wrote today about how investors just got a big-time reminder that gold has *zero* correlation to stocks, not inversely correlated. Big difference. Good diversifier but unreliable hedge. Bitcoin is similar but w more correlation (0.45) w stocks. Both unpredictable but...
Canal+ Appears Dramatically Undervalued with Strong Synergies
Help me out here. Doesn't Canal+ $CAN looks pretty mispriced right now. The market is basically valuing MultiChoice (plus all the expected synergies) at less than zero. MultiChoice is already profitable and Canal+ is targeting €400m in annual synergies over the...
Founder-Led Stocks with Durable Moats Are Undervalued
Undervalued founder-led stocks with strong moats 👇 $CRM — Deep enterprise integration + high switching costs $TEAM — Core dev + collaboration stack $MDB — Costly to migrate once built $ZETA — Data + marketing cloud lock-in $RBRK — Critical backup + security layer Which ones...
SPY May Fall 30%, Rebuild Below $475
$SPY Can't rule out a 30% drop but I think it could take a long time. Some supports along the way but if we go sub $475 then that's the ideal zone to build back long term exposure (not financial advice just...