Lumentum’s $703 Surge Still a Hard Reject
Deep Dive Full Thesis - Is LITE a BUY now at $703? Lumentum Surged 1,436% to $703 on NVIDIA’s $2B Bet + $90B AI Optics TAM — Why My Full Decision Framework Still Says Hard Reject Recent Institutional Rating: - Morgan Stanley — Hold | $595 - Rosenblatt — Buy | $900 - TD Cowen — Hold | $675
Simple ETF List for Beginner Investors: Low‑Fee, Broad Exposure
If you’re a beginner investor, keep it simple: SCHD – dividends ITOT – total U.S. market VT – global exposure SPSM / SPMD / SPYM – size diversification VUG – growth VTV – value IXUS – international Low fees. Broad exposure. Long-term focus.
Three Essentials for Long‑Term Compound Investing
The ultimate investing framework visualization by @safalniveshak: ✅ High-quality business ✅ Owner-oriented managers ✅ Compelling valuations If you don’t have all three, you don't have a long-term compounder. This funnel from Vishal Khandelwal is a must-bookmark for any serious investor.
Portfolios Hit Harder Than Nifty: Rethink Investing
New podcast: A discussion on how portfolios have been disproportionately battered (compared to the Nifty at least) and what are the ways to think about your investments: https://t.co/3XSKkOGrBV
Zero Rates Fueled Stock Surge; Rising Yields Restore Choice
Here's why the last 20(ish) years of stock market returns were so extraordinary, and somewhat predictable. After the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed interest rates to essentially zero and kept them there for years, so cash and bonds paid...
Buying the Dip Delivers Strong Long‑term Market Gains
No one knows how long a correction will last when you're in it But buying stocks when they are down tends to be a good long-term strategy A look at what happens when you buy the stock market down 10%, 20% and...
Meta’s Decade‑Long Resilience Tested by Crises
Meta price and EPS charts in the last decade, marked with every major crisis. Will it weather the storm this time? Detailed analysis 👇🏼 $META
Big Tech's YTD Decline Outpaces S&P, Margins Squeeze
Big Tech is selling off faster than the market. S&P 500 -6.9% YTD Big Tech (MAGS) -15.9% YTD $MSFT -26.2% YTD Capex hit $37.5B in a single quarter. Gross margins dropped to 68% (3-year low). Free cash flow is under pressure. AI is scaling,...
War and AI Doubts Split S&P Price From Earnings
S&P 500 12M forward earnings estimates 8% S&P 500 8% War and AI doubts have fueled an unprecedented divergence between stock prices and earnings estimates https://t.co/op1buWsF30 https://t.co/F9QcLD2WC2
S&P 500 Valuation Drops 17% as Earnings Surge 14%
Worth pointing out that the $SPX multiple has compressed 17% and now stands at 19x forward estimates. And at the same time earning are accelerating and are now expected to grow 14% y/y.
Cautiously Buying Discounted Equities After Cash De‑risking
After de-risking heavily across the board since q4 (went to cash), I’m now nibbling at names I like and are down 30-50% Not jumping out of my seat. Don’t think we’ve bottomed Not buying tokens. Only equities
Most Can't Beat Market; Use Simple Index Strategy
You're probably not going to outperform the market. Neither are most professional fund managers. @DanGreenhaus on the simple investing framework most people should be following📈 $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/LysvwfB3iJ
Value Hunts Assets‑in‑place; Growth Hunts Misvalued Growth
Aswath Damodaran on the difference between value investors vs growth investors "Value investors view their odds of finding market mistakes to be greater with assets-in-place, whereas growth investors feel that their odds are better in finding misvalued growth assets.""
Buy Quality, Skip Speculative Charts for Real Returns
Fiona’s advice for the week. Buy quality. Avoid stocks with no clear path to production. Pretty charts have never produced an LCE. https://t.co/vpJ1GyI4oZ
Reverse Thinking Reveals Hidden Risks in FICO
"The mental habit of thinking backwards forces objectivity." – Charlie Munger. Many investors look at $FICO and see a perfect toll-bridge. But to truly understand it, you have to try to disprove the thesis. That's what I did. I just published Part...
War Spurs Record EPS Upswings Across All Sectors, Tech Leads
Wild chart from @WSJmarkets here. Since the war started, all 11 sectors now have higher 12-month EPS forecasts than before and tech EPS had one of the largest jumps in EPS estimates in history. 🤔 https://t.co/ObyETJ4E3o
Earnings Cycle Accelerates Despite S&P 500 Drop
"The S&P 500 index is down 9.2% from its recent highs, and the P/E ratio is down 18%. That 9 percentage point difference can be explained by an earnings cycle that is not only holding up but accelerating higher:" Fidelity's...
Buffett Credits “Intelligent Investor” As Life‑changing Guide
Warren Buffett on the book The Intelligent Investor. "It changed my life. If I hadn't read that book in late 1949, I would have had a different future. It instantly clicked with me that what [Ben Graham] was saying made sense."
Ferragamo Upgraded as Margins Rise From SKU Cuts
Bernstein upgrades Ferragamo to outperform as SKU cuts, −10% inventories, store reshuffle and wholesale exits boost margins; China execution and partner exits pose risks. Trade: buy FERR. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
PAY's Reorg Cuts Shares 30%, Boosts Dividend Yield
#PAY doing major reorganisation which it says will improve results. On course to reduce Share Count about 30% by FY28. ShareScope has fwd p/e 7.3 falling to 6.7 and fwd Divvy 7% rising to 7.1%. Interesting. I don't hold.
OpenAI's $730B Valuation Masks Potential Earnings Bubble
OpenAI just hit $730B. Up from $500B in October. But here's the uncomfortable part: there may be a bubble in the earnings themselves, not just the stock price. That's rarer. And harder to fix when it corrects. https://t.co/RRKIhVC2EE
SPSY Shows Improved Fundamentals, Potentially Undervalued
#SPSY interesting Update. Cash up, debt down. Seems to have more customers which is good. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 4.4 RISING to 8.9 and fwd Divvy 7% rising to 7.1%. It could be cheap. I don't hold.
Buy the Dip Dispassionately, Unlike Cramer’s Approach
Respectfully, we are "playing" the precipitous drop much differently than @jimcramer. We are buying and dispassionately. We view dips as opportunities given, among other things, the valuation and consensus (EPS) resets. @dougkass
Nidec Faces Governance Shock, Lawsuit and Moody's Downgrade
Nidec governance shock: shareholder demands suit; accounting probe + Moody’s downgrade cut credit & earnings visibility. Risk: litigation, restatements. Trade: Cut Nidec exposure pending report. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fundamentals Outshine Daily Swings in Volatile Markets
Good reminder. In volatile markets, prices move faster than businesses do, which is why checking balance sheets and earnings strength often gives more clarity than watching daily portfolio swings. If the core fundamentals of a company remain intact, temporary declines...
Buy Quality Stocks Now: War Will Yield Peace Dividend
Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the...
Embrace Uncomfortable Stocks for Low‑Valuation Gains
In investing, comfort can come at a high price. Conversely, embracing discomfort can be rewarding, as stocks that make investors uneasy often trade at exceptionally low valuations.
S&P 500 Forward P/E Drops 16% as Earnings Rise
Stock valuations are compressing sharply even as earnings estimates keep rising. The S&P 500 forward P/E has fallen 16% while the index itself is down just 8.7%. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/QZg0BjpnPg
Liquidity and Solvency Ratios: Core Valuation Metrics
"Liquidity and solvency ratios are valuation inputs, not accounting trivia." Liquidity and solvency ratios aren’t just numbers, they show the real health of a company.
Profitable, Non‑diluting Growth Beats Early Hype
Don’t worry if no one likes your investment idea. If the company is profitable and growing and not diluting the crowd will eventually come back to it.
Strong SaaS Growth Offsets Multiple Contraction
While SaaS multiples have contracted meaningfully, 20-30% revenue CAGR since 2021 means that revenue has increased 150-250%, counteracting much of the multiple contraction from an LTV perspective (assuming no dividend recaps). Growth solves a lot of problems over time.
Nvidia Hits S&P 500 Forward P/E Parity After Decade
GOLDMAN DESK: “.. Nvidia now trades at par / slight discount to the S&P500 on fwd P/E for the first time in 10+ years. “.. yes, Nvidia is now trading at par with the S&P500 on fwd P/E despite, Nvidia...
Rising 5% Breakeven Inflation Threatens S&P Valuations
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
MELI's Profitability Varies Widely Across Countries
Great point re: $MELI country level profitability differences Been going through @DrewCohenMoney's free analysis on the company in preparation for my own report. Good stuff all around in the comments
Patience Over Action: Buffett’s Key to Long-Term Wealth
Patience beats action in the stock market. Inspired by Warren Buffett, this investing mindset shows why waiting for the right opportunity is key to long-term wealth building. Stop chasing every trade, focus on value investing, smart decisions, and strong portfolio...
Understanding 100‑Baggers: Beyond Traits and Survivorship Bias
This was great from Chris Mayer. You tend to see two reactions to studies like the 100 bagger research: 1. “I’ll just copy the exact traits and find winners.” 2. “It’s all survivorship bias” Chris explains why both miss the point. https://t.co/iYW8itthV3
SaaS Multiples Dip as Growth Steadies at 14%
SaaS valuations just hit multi-year lows — while growth is stabilizing. Over the past 12 months, the setup has quietly flipped 👇 • Median EV/Sales fell to 3.44x (at ATL) • NTM revenue growth rebounded to +14% YoY Valuations compressed. Growth held. Growth expectations stopped...
VNINDEX Rally Driven Mainly by Thinly Traded Vingroup
Yeah no, valuation multiples seem reasonable especially given this backdrop. The VNINDEX rally was partly due to the incredible performance of thinly traded Vingroup. The rest has not rallied as much.
Weekly 20‑Minute Podcast Simplifies Portfolio Risk Insight
The whole point of 2Graybeards is to provide a credible once a week check in for busy people who need a 20 minute credible synthesis each week. If that's you and your trawling twitter or cnbc or mainstream media...
Decade of Gains: Taxpayer-Funded Buybacks Enrich 1%
With the Mag 7 rolling over, is there a good case to be make that the last 10 years of outperformance was just a giant Debt-for-Equity swap from taxpayers (more tax dollars allocated to unfunded pensions) to the top 1%...
Stay Disciplined: Deploy Capital, Not Panic, Amid Volatility
I get it - volatility makes people nervous. But my job isn’t to panic. My job is to deploy capital. Whether the market is up 700 points or down 700 points, I ask one question: What has actually changed? Most people react emotionally....
Market Drops Are Frequent; Long‑term Investors Still Profit
How Often the Stock Market Falls (1928–2021): • 5%+ decline: 95% of years • 10%+ decline: 63% of years • 20%+ decline: 26% of years • 30%+ decline: 10% of years • 40%+ decline: 5% of years Market drops are common. Long-term investors still come out ahead.
Profit by Buying When Everyone Is Pessimistic
“Buy low. Of course, you say, that’s obvious. Well, it may be, but that isn’t the way the market works. Buy when most people, including experts, are pessimistic. So simple in concept. So difficult in execution.” — Sir John Templeton...
AI Giants’ $11.2T Valuation Overshadows South Sea Bubble
The Top 5 AI hyperscalers now carry an $11.2 trillion market cap. Adjusted for inflation, this dwarfs the South Sea Bubble. I’ve broken down the full Fundsmith 2026 AGM and why Terry Smith is staying the course. Read the full FREE deep...
US‑Israeli War Sends 60‑40 Portfolio to Worst Month Since 2022
As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the traditional '60-40' portfolio of equities and bonds is on track for the worst month since September 2022. US-ISRAELI WAR = NOT WALL STREET'S FRIEND. https://t.co/kWe8ucZedL
True Value Requires Assets or Earnings, Not Low Price
"A stock is not undervalued unless intrinsic value is supported by hard assets or earning power." Most “cheap” stocks aren’t actually cheap.
ROIC Sources Dictate: Differentiate or Lead Costs
Michael Mauboussin on ROIC and Competitive Advantage If a business has a high ROIC from a high NOPAT margin, focus on differentiation If a business has a high ROIC from a high invested capital turnover, focus on cost leadership Very few businesses...
U.S. Stocks Always Rebound to All‑Time Highs
You can simplify it even further: The U.S. stock market has a 100% perfect record of coming back from downturns to hit ATHs. This indisputable truth is the ultimate anxiety killer. Better than Xanax. Instantly renders all doomer columnists and...
WING Crashes 55% as Valuations Prove Misleading
2 years later, $WING down 55%, multiple down 75%, below covid levels. Not only does valuation obv matter, but if you want to better understand financial media and so on read the bull articles from back then. https://t.co/RpeTSVRgG2
Buffett’s OXY Deal Delivers Dual‑Benefit Returns
Buffett’s Occidental ($OXY) deal is one of the cleanest examples of “have your cake and eat it too” investing. Let’s break down the real return Berkshire is getting 👇